Presentations for the webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa

2. Jim Hansen, CCAFS Flagship 2 Leader, IRI
Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa
23 November 2016
Setting the Scene:
A Global Perspective on
Climate Services

3. HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES
WEATHER

4. HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES
CLIMATE
VARIABILITY

5. HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES
CLIMATE
CHANGE

6. From weather to climate services
• All time scales relevant
• Information needs depend
on decisions
• With increasing lead time:
 Decisions more context-
and farmer-specific
 Information more
uncertain, complex
 Therefore scope of
services needed increases

7. From weather to climate services
• Climate services more than
adding climate products
to weather services
 Generation
 Translation
 Communication
 Application

8. 1-Minute History of Climate Services
• 1910-20s Sir Gilbert Walker – Southern Oscillation
• 1960s Jacob Bjerkens – connected El Nino with Southern Oscillation
• 1982 El Nino
 Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program
 International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)
• 1980-90s Climate-agriculture systems analysis in Australia
• 1997 El Nino ➤ Surge of research and investment
• 1997 Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
• 2009 World Climate Conference-3 ➤ UN Global Framework for Climate
Services (GFCS)
• 2011 First ICCS ➤ Climate Services Partnership (CSP)
• From climate research + “applications” to “climate services”

9. What will it take for climate services to work for
smallholder farmers and pastoralists – at scale?
 Capacity to communicate,
understand, act on climate-
related information
 Farmers
 Government and institutions
 Capacity to provide
actionable information
 Balance scalable services
with context-specific needs
 Institutional arrangements
to sustain co-development
of services
 Evidence to support and
guide investment

10. Capacity to communicate, understand, act on
information: Interactive rural radio
• Radio and mobile phones complement face-
to-face communication
• Combining radio and mobile phones
 Bulk SMS
 Interactive Voice Response (IVR)
 “Beep-4-...” services
• Programming: Call-in shows, panel
discussions, village dialogues, dramas
• Listener groups
• Gender-sensitive programming
• Emerging area, supported by evidence of
impact of Participatory Radio Campaigns

11. Capacity to communicate, understand, act on
information: PICSA
• Developed by University of Reading,
with CCAFS, IRI
• Piloted in Kenya, Senegal, Mali,
Ghana, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Malawi
• Extensive use of local historic data and
forecasts, graphs
• Mainstream into agricultural extension,
intermediaries, through training
• Combine with radio, ICT

12. Capacity to communicate, understand, act on
information: PICSA
• Understand historical climate
 Trends and variability
 Derived seasonal quantities
 Crop requirements and risks

13. Capacity to communicate, understand, act on
information: PICSA
• Understand historical climate
• Participatory planning
 Current livelihood system
 Options to improve system

14. Climate services for farmers: PICSA
• Understand historical climate
• Participatory planning
• Downscaled seasonal forecasts
 Training on new probability formats
 Adjust seasonal planning
• Depends on information that
NMS often don’t routinely
provide.

15. Building NMS capacity to provide actionable
climate information
• Farmers’ relevance challenges:
 Local spatial scale
 Season characteristics: timing, spells, water
balance, extremes
 Consistency between seasonal forecast and
historical variability
 Transparent communication of variability,
accuracy
• NMS capacity challenges:
 Parent ministry mandate
 Human & financial resources
 Cost of responding to user requests
 Sparse historic observations
 Data policy, incentives
?

16. Building NMS capacity to provide actionable
climate information
• Enhancing National Climate Services
• Satellite + station, ~5 km grid, >30-50 year
complete record
• Production and dissemination of an
expanding suite of information products
through online “maprooms”
• NMHS capacity development mode
• Expanding ENACTS and connecting with
PICSA communication processes
STATION
BLENDED
SATELLIT
E

17. Balancing scalable services with context-
specific needs?
• The dilemma
• Methodology responsive to local
needs, yet scalable
 PICSA
 ENACTS
• Institutionalize farmers’ voice
• Early wins that are relevant to many
• Iterative assessment and
refinement processes

18. Thank you!
Jim Hansen: jhansen@iri.columbia.edu

20. Webinar on ‘Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists Africa’
Rwanda Climate Services for
Agriculture Project Highlights
Kagabo Désiré
Nsengiyumvand
a Gloriose
23rd November 2016

21. Project short history
• Funded by USAID
• Coordinated by CCAFS
• Implementing partners include:
 Key agencies: RAB, Meteo-Rwanda and their parent Ministries
 Technical partners: CIAT, IRI, ILRI, ICRAF, U of Reading
• September 2015 through 2019
• Implemented across the country
• 4 districts were covered in Year One and 6 districts targeted in year Two

22. Aim of the project
To benefit nearly one million farmers by 2019, and
transform Rwanda’s rural farming communities and
national economy through climate services and
improved climate risk management

23. Key project activities
Outcome 1: Climate Services
for Farmers
1. Baseline information about
farmers’ climate information
use, access and needs
2. Deliver climate information
services for agriculture to
nearly One Million People
nationwide (through PICSA
and other tools)
3. Strengthen capacity and
incorporate user feedback on
climate information services
4. Develop, implement and
assess a new ICT or media-
based climate service
communication tools
5. Incorporate probability-of-
exceedance products into
PICSA process and training
materials
Outcome 2: Climate
Services for Government
Planning
1. Develop and test a
water balance-based
tool for early
assessment of drought
impacts on crop
production and food
security
2. Develop and test a tool
for location-specific
optimization of
planting date
Outcome 3: Climate
Information Provision
1. Build capacity of Meteo
Rwanda by providing
innovative climate services
based on user feedback
2. Refining gridded climate
data products
3. Develop climate service
products and tools based
on users’ needs
4. Conduct operation research
to improve understanding
of Rwanda’s climate and
its forecasting
Outcome 4: National
Climate Services
Governance
1. Form a climate
service advisory
committee
representing key
agencies
2. Develop Terms of
Reference for the
Advisory Committee,
including the
development of
sustainable national
climate services
governance process
beyond the duration
of the project

24. Research methodology and approaches
1. Use of decentralised agricultural extension model “Twigire Muhinzi”
2. Partnerships with intermediary organizations (agriculture extension agencies,
value chain actors, NGOs, private sector, etc.)
3. Use of communication channels based on ICT, media (e.g. radio, tv, etc.)
4. Use of a multi-disciplinary and participatory approach (e.g. PICSA) to deliver
climate services information
5. Capacity building of government agencies, NGOs and farmers
6. Development of climate services products tailored to end users’ needs

25. Channeling climate services information through a decentralized
agricultural extension model

26. Preliminary results

27. 52 % (1,328)
Male Farmers
29,736 Farmers (12,786 Males,
16,950 Females )
83% of 2559 farmers
reaching 14 farmers
through farmer-to-farmer
communication
Preliminary results
4Districts
48 Farmer Promoters, 4district
agronomists, 12 sector agronomists
and 12 SEDOs
2,559 Farmers
48% (1,231)
Female Farmers

28. Dissemination of climate services through PICSA
• Trainees to understand historical climate
 Trends and variability
 Derived seasonal quantities
 Crop requirements and risks

29. Dissemination of climate services through PICSA (cont’d)
• Understand historical climate
• Participatory planning
 Current livelihood system
 Options to improve system

30. Dissemination of climate services through PICSA (cont’d)
• Understand historical climate
• Participatory planning
• Downscaled seasonal forecasts
 Training on new probability formats
 Adjust seasonal planning

31. Climate information provision: Extending ENACTS
• Derived agromet quantities:
 Season onset, cessation,
duration
 Frequency of damaging dry
spells; wet, heat, cold
extremes
 Growing degree-days
 Water balance, WRSI
• Seasonal forecasts:
 Statistically downscaled
 Same derived quantities
 Full probability distribution
 In context of historic climate

32. Success stories
• 28 “expert trainers” in the PICSA approach contributed to train 72 (33%
female) FP, SEDOs and sector agronomists
• Farmer Promoters trained their fellows 2,559 farmers (48% female)
• More than 97% of respondents (206) as a result of the PICSA training said:
 confident about their farming and livelihood decision-making
 expect to improve their household food security and income
 see farming as more of a business than previously
 feel better prepared to cope with bad seasons caused by the weather
• 83% of respondents shared the information on average to 14 people with
peers outside of their households

33. Lessons from Rwanda experience
• Climate services builds on Rwanda’s innovative Twigire
Muhinzi extension model
• Rwanda’s open data policy
• Integrate innovative good practices:
 Overcome data poverty
 Strengthen capacity for supply and effective demand of climate
services
 Balance local relevance, with scalability
• Legacy of sustained capacity and governance

34. Thank you for the attention

36. Tufa Dinku
tufa@iri.columbia.edu
Emerging Lessons and
experiences from Africa

37. Outline
I. Climate Data as the Foundation for Climate Information
Services(CIS)
II. Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data and
Information Products in Africa
III. The ENACTS Approach
IV. Applications

38. On past, present, and future
climate is one of the critical
inputs
Climate
Information
Provided the required
climate information
products
Climate Services
Foundation for
delivery of climate
services
Climate Data
Climate-
Resilient
Development
Necessary to manage current climate
variability and adapt to climate change
I. Climate Data as the Foundation for CIS

39. Climate Climate Data as the Foundation of Climate Services
Good data:
Strong foundation
 Reliable climate
information products
and services
Climate Data
Climate Services
Climate Data

40. Climate Climate Data as the Foundation of Climate Services
Bad/No data:
Weak foundation
 Unreliable climate
information
products and
services
Climate Data
Climate Services
Climate Data
http://www.vareen.com/Travels/Brighton.htm

41. II. Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data in Africa
1. Number of weather stations not adequate over many parts Africa,
and it has been declining in many places
Declining investment Conflicts
Declining volunteer stations

42. Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data in Africa
2. Serious gaps in observations (missing data)
3. Questionable data quality

43. III. The ENACTS Approach
• ENACTS = Enhancing National Climate Services
• Strives to simultaneously improve availability, access and use of
climate information.
• Works with NMHS to quality-control all available station data and
combine them with satellite and reanalysis products.
• The main focus of ENACTS is creation of reliable climate
information products for local decision-making.

44. The Three Pillars of ENACTS
Improve Availability
• Build capacity of NMHS
• Quality Control station
data
• Combine station data
with proxies
• Improve seasonal
forecast
E N A C T S
Enhance Access
• Install IRI Data
Library
•Develop online tools
for data analysis and
visualization
• Create mechanisms
for data sharing
Promote Use
Engage users:
• Raise awareness
• Build capacity of
users to understand
and use climate info
• Involve users in
product development

45. ENACTS: Major Outputs
• Over 30/50-years of climate time series for every 4km grid across
each country:
o Now data available where there are no stations
• Installation of the IRI Data Library at NMHS
o A powerful tool for generating climate information
• Unprecedented online access to information products:
o Satisfies the needs of many users
o Overcomes (partly) the challenges of data access
• Built capacity at NMHS and some user communities

46. ENACTS Countries
ENACTS Countries:
Ethiopia
Gambia
Ghana
Madagascar
Mali
Rwanda
Tanzania
Zambia
Kenya
Uganda
Malawi

47. ENACTS Countries

48. IV. Examples of Applications
Agriculture-Rwanda
Climate Services for Agriculture: Empowering Farmers to Manage
Risk and Adapt to a Changing Climate in Rwanda
• Funded by USAID Rwanda Mission($6M);
• Climate information specifically for small-holder farmers;
• Builds on ENACTS data data and products:- would have been difficult
without ENACTS.

49. Examples of Applications
Health:- Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda
Impact evaluation for Malaria Interventions
•Evaluates the impact/contribution of climate in malaria
control interventions of the PMI(Presidents’ Malaria Initiative);
•Funded by PMI-USAID;
•Uses ENACTS data and products at different administrative
levels

50. Examples of Applications
Research: Ethiopia
• The Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency(NMA) was
the 1st to Implement ENACTS;
• Over the last three years NMA has provided ENACTS data to
many students from different universities across the
country;
• Many of these research activities would have been difficult
without ENACTS data that is available for nay part of the
country.

51. Tufa Dinku
tufa@iri.columbia.edu
web: iri.columbia.edu
@climatesociety
…/climatesociety
Thank You

53. Good Practices and
Challenges on Borana
Indigenous Weather
Forecasting Services
By
Ayal Desalegn

54. Presentation outline
1. Purpose of the Research
2. Description of the Study area and the research Methodology
3. Indigenous weather forecast System
4. Findings of the research
 Abiotic and Biotic climate forecasting system
 Forecast information dissemination & socioeconomic
preparations
 Credibility of Indigenous Weather Forecasting

55. The purpose of the Research
• This research assess the nature of biotic and abiotic Borana weather
forecasting systems
• Evaluate the precision and credibility of different indigenous weather
forecasting systems

56. Description of the Study area and the research Methodology
• The study was conducted in Borana (in
CCAFS’s learning site)
• The region is dominated by a semi-arid
weather with a bi-modal rainfall regime
• About 59 % of the precipitation occurs from
March to May and 27 % from September to
November
• The area suffer from surface and
underground water
• Pastoralism is the main economic activity in
the study area

57. Description of the Study area and the research Methodology Cont’
• There livelihood is climate sensitive
• In Borana the frequency and magnitude of drought has been increasing over the last three
decades
• Drought and its attendant physical, biological and epidemiological adverse effects are
responsible for substantial damage and loss to herders asset
• Borana herders are vulnerable to climate change and variability. Because they have neither
objective adaptive capacity nor subjective adaptive capacity

58. Description of the Study area and the research Cont’
• In this research mixed research method was used
• Data was collected using questionnaire survey, focus group discussion, overt
observation and interview
• Various stakeholders such as Ethnobotanist, veterinarian, Borana indigenous
weather forecasters (Uchu and Urgi Elaltus), community key informants, sample
households and NMSA were source of data for this study

59. Indigenous weather forecast System
• The idea and practice of indigenous weather forecasting is inbuilt in
many cultures and has been established after long years of observation
• Indigenous weather forecast is the main source of meteorological
information for the Borana herders since time immemorial
• The practical utilization of indigenous weather forecasting systems
builds herders’ resiliency capacity to climatic shocks
Their agricultural decisions, such as the timing of planting, rangeland
management, herd composition and number, are highly interlinked with
anticipated climate phenomenon

60. Indigenous weather forecast System
In Borana weather forecast is made using Abiotic and Biotic
Weather Forecast indicators
• Celestial body readings
• Intestinal reading
• Plant body language readings
• Animal body language readings
In all forecasting systems there is no special ritual activity or
any food or sexual restrictions

61. Astrological weather forecasting
• Star-moon alignment (Lemi)
• Geometrical alignment of
celestial bodies (Bussan)
• The apparent size of the stars
(Kormi Mado)
• Apparent movement of the star
(Bekalcha…)
Wind speed and direction
Rainbow (Muna Garti)
Type of cloud cover

62. Intestinal Reading
• Large intestine (Kechuma)
• Small intestine
• Lump node (Kabello)
• Blood vessel (vein)

63. Flower abundance and timing of Tedecha (acacia), Ret (Aloe) trees
The activities of cattle, squirrel (Tuka), bees, ants, tones of hyena screaming and bird song

64. System of Disseminating weather Forecasts
• The Borana herders forecast and share weather information using well organized
cultural networks
• The Urgi Elaltus and Uchus are in charge of forecasting weather and disseminating
information, but do not have an obligation to do so and are not paid
• The Urgi Elaltus and Uchus communicates weather information to community
elders and heads of Geda who then disseminate it by summoning people for
urgent meetings

65. System of Disseminating Climate Forecasts Cont’
• Alternatively, information is announced in market places, water points
and village settlements
• DAs and NGOs also disseminate the forecast information
• Interested people can personally go to the houses of experts and ask
for weather information so that their contacts can receive and transfer
the same information

66. Responses to the weather forecasting
Based on the disseminated forecast information the Borana herders take coping and
adaptation measures such as:
• Strengthening area enclosure through community bylaw
• Saving water and grass
• Preparing livestock medicine (traditional traditional and modern sources)
• Storing hay
• Sending scouts and migrating with animals to water and pasture abundant areas
• Destocking
• Reducing expenditure
• Changing schedules of social and cultural festivities such as wedding

67. Credibility of Indigenous Weather Forecasting
• The precision and credibility of all modes of
traditional weather forecast steadily declining due
to repeated faulty predictions
• However, still there are Elaltus’ who commands
high respect among the Borana herders (e.g.
Kalicha Qoncher)
• The number of Indigenous weather forecaster
(experts) have decreased over time in their
localities

68. Credibility of Indigenous Weather Forecasting
Poor documentation
Oral based knowledge transfer system
Influence of religion and modern education
Aging and premature death of Indigenous experts
Expansion of alcoholism
Changing behaviour and extinction of biotic indictors
Identified as the major causes undermining the vitality of traditional climate forecast

69. Recommendation
• Traditional wisdom could serve as a starting point to scientifically study
the relationship between various signs and implied climate outcomes
• Before traditional weather forecasting completely disappears, a remedial
action should be carried out to prevent irreversible loss of intangible
cultural heritage
• Therefore, a systematic documentation of IK and integrating with
instrumental forecasting can improve the accuracy and resilience of
herders.

70. Thank You !

74. BUILDING A TEAM OF STAKEHOLDERS :
MULTI-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH.
 National Level :
 National Weather Service (ANACIM)
 Ministry of agriculture (DA)
 Initiative Prospective Agriculture and Rural (IPAR)
 Ecological Monitoring Center (CSE)
 national agricultural research institute (ISRA)
 National department of water resource management (DGPRE)
 ENDA Energie
 Local extension services and NGO in Kaffrine :
 agricultural advisers and extension (ANCAR)
 Service Départemental du développement Rural (SDDR),
 NGO : Volunteers from Red Cross (CR), Africare (PRODIAK), World Vision (WV),
 Farmers organizations :
 National Farmers (Japandoo, CNCR, FONGS, … ), Individual farmers,
 Organization of women producers (GPF), Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation (CPSA)
 Communication :
 community and rural radio,
 National TV, Private radios and TVs (Sud FM, Wal Fadjri, )

75. Building on local knowledge:
High humidity and high temperatures can explain some of
their indicators  “Stronger monsoon”
Doing quite the same thing BUT
Better observing system
More reliable storage capacity (numbers, maps, computers,
…)
« When the wind change direction to fetch the
rain » = Wind change from harmatan to monsoon
during onset

76. • Field preparation :
• Selecting the crop :
• Planting :
• Weeding :
• Applying fertilizer,
pesticide, …
• Harvesting :
• Storage :
Finance
Technology
Heritage
Sociology
Habits
Beliefs
Environment
Climate/weather
DOCUMENTING FARMERS DECISION SYSTEM : WHAT DECISONS FARMERS
are MAKING TO MANAGE THEIR CROPPING SYSTEM AND WHY ?
WHAT WHY

77. Seasonal forecast
 varieties
Onset forecast
 farm preparation
Nowcasting
 flooding saving life (thunder)
Daily forecast
 use of fertilizer / pesticide
Ten-day forecast
 weeding, field work
Evaluation
Lessons drawn
Training workshop
Indigenous knowledge
Discussion and meetings
Field Visits
10 days experts meeting :
monitoring the season
Ten-day forecast
 optimum
harvesting period
Before During the Crop season Maturity/end

78. team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist

79. TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE : “WHAT 1 MM OF
RAIN MEANS”

80. Climateinformation
Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting
Local working Group
(Customize Climate information)
Farmers Agriculture
Livestock
Local
authority
Extensions
services
Forestry
Community
radio
Seed growers
Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin
LocalPluri-disciplinary
WorkingGroup
Community
Pest Disease
Control

81. Formal document establishing the GTP
by local authority

82. Network of community radios used to disseminate
climate inormation

83. First step : building trust (social dimension : using indigeneous
knowledge)
Giving not only useful BUT useable forecast
(tailored for specific user needs in local language)
Long term and multi-stakeholders partnership (each
institution has part of the solution for food security)
Communicating the forecast in easy to use term
(easy to understand, can translate into action and to be evaluated)
Dynamic process : need to better understand
farmers decision system (farmers active participation : rain guage,
indigenous knowledge, evaluation of forecast and activities …)
WHAT DID WE LEARN

84. CONCLUSION OR CHALLENGES
 Spatial scale of the forecast : down to farm
 scaling-up other sites (government representative demand)
 Offer Alternative :
dry (bad news !) =>give them hope (climate insurance, alternative)
 wet but there is no extra resources : so what ?
SOLUTION :
 Offering comprehensive whole package with varieties
of partners (engage seed/fertilizer producers, bank, corporation,
… )
① Climate services (forecast + technology => advices)
② Climate insurance (dry/bad forecast + courage)