2018 promises considerable excitement for global sports betting. From the SCOTUS review of PASPA, to record sports betting GGR in South Africa, to improved Nevada hold and handle, here's what we're watching in 2018.
2. 6 Predictions and Trends to Watch in 2018 www.chalklinesports.com
6 Predictions & Trends to Watch in 2018
3 Important Trends from 2017
6 Predictions & Trends to Watch in 2018
The US Supreme Court will fully repeal PASPA.
A European operator will make a $500M+ US acquisition.
South African sports betting GGR will grow 25%.
Nevada legal handle will grow 10%.
US live-in-play handle will double.
US operators will reverse the declining hold trend.
About Chalkline
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Note: with offices in the US and South Africa (and experience operating books in both), we’re far more attuned to the US and African
markets. Also, there will be plenty going on in eSports and crypto that we don’t touch on here.
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3. 6 Predictions and Trends to Watch in 2018 www.chalklinesports.com
Trend: Continued global consolidation
One example that summed up 2017: Openbet was acquired by NYX Gaming, which was then acquired by Scientific Games.
Plus, GVC – Ladbrokes Coral, Paddy Power - Draft, and more.
Highlights from 20172017
Acquired by Acquired by
SCOTUS agrees to hear New
Jersey’s appeal of PASPA
Easily the biggest story of the year, as it
potentially opens up one of the largest
sports betting markets in the world.
Plus, it set off an industry chain reaction
as stakeholders started jockeying
for position.
African sports betting markets
continue rapid growth
• South African casinos continue to lose market share to sports betting.
(Casinos = 80% of GGR in 2011 down to ~65% in 2017. )
• Retail sports betting locations up +10% in 2017.
• Multiple gaming conferences in 2017.
5. 6 Predictions and Trends to Watch in 2018 www.chalklinesports.com
The US Supreme Court will fully repeal PASPA.1
Our legal friends and advisors have helped inform this opinion. And, if/when SCOTUS
does repeal PASPA…it’s gonna get messy as states start pushing forward. We believe
there will be a legal (non-DFS) sports bet struck in a new ‘sports betting state’ in 2018.
Source: https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sportsbetting-bill-tracker/ (If you don’t read Legal Sports Report, you should.)
6. 6 Predictions and Trends to Watch in 2018 www.chalklinesports.com
A European operator will make a $500M+ US acquisition.2
2017 saw significant industry M&A, and several European operators invested in the US.
The reality is this: the quickest path to accessing the US market is through acquisition.
We expect to see a >$500M+ deal as global operators acquire licensing opportunities.
7. 6 Predictions and Trends to Watch in 2018 www.chalklinesports.com
South African sports betting GGR will grow 25%.3
The 2018 World Cup will drive growth that exceeds the expectations of PwC and other
analysts. Mobile and strong retail will drive 25%+ YOY market expansion.
Source: https://www.pwc.co.za/en/assets/pdf/gambling-outlook-2017-2021.pdf
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
2014 2015 2016 2017
Billions
South African GGR: 2014-2017
R3.5B
+22% YOY
R4.4B
+29% YOY
R5.1B
+14% YOY
R5.3B
+4% YOY
8. 6 Predictions and Trends to Watch in 2018 www.chalklinesports.com
Nevada legal handle will grow 10%.4
With the 2018 World Cup, more live-in-play and better marketing from sports books,
we predict double-digit growth in Nevada handle this year.
Source: http://gaming.nv.gov/index.aspx?page=149
$3.9B
+8% YOY
$4.2B
+9% YOY
$4.6B
+6% YOY
$4.8B
+7% YOY
9. 6 Predictions and Trends to Watch in 2018 www.chalklinesports.com
US live-in-play handle will double.5
Once you try it, you get it. Look for this number to grow dramatically
in 2018 as US books offer more live products.
Source: https://www.williamhillplc.com/media/11451/wmh-us-update-20170510.pdf p.2
~70%
Percentage of global
regulated bets that
are live-in-play
Data from William Hill US supports
strong live-in-play growth
The rest of the regulated sports betting
world loves live betting.
10. 6 Predictions and Trends to Watch in 2018 www.chalklinesports.com
US operators will reverse the declining hold trend.6
US hold numbers are trending the wrong way. In 2018, operators
will invest in data-driven tools to shore up hold and reverse the trend.
5.82%
5.47%
4.86%
4.70%
(est.)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
$-
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
2014 2015 2016 2017
Billions
Nevada Handle & Hold: 2014 - 2017
Handle Hold
Source: http://gaming.nv.gov/index.aspx?page=149
11. Connect with Chalkline
www.chalklinesports.com
hello@chalklinesports.com
@ChalkLineSports
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