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Project Cost Management

30 de Sep de 2014
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Project Cost Management

  1. ITEC 459 Project Management Project Cost Management
  2. Learning Outcomes Illustrate cost estimation of an IT project. 3.1 Explain the importance of estimating the cost of an IT project. 3.2 Discuss different tools and techniques used for cost estimation and problems that can arise with improper estimation. 3.3 Discuss Earned Value Management and use it as a tool to estimate cost.
  3. Graduate Outcomes  Critical and Creative Thinking Cognitive Level: Knowledge
  4. Lesson Objectives  Understand Project Cost  Apply Cost Management Planning Processes  Perform EVM calculations
  5. Cost Management involves new processes that will be covered in this lesson
  6. Cost  You get what you pay for!  IT projects have a poor track record for meeting budget goals  Where does Budget overrun come from? – Based on unclear project requirements – PM’s do not have good financial estimate skills
  7. Project Cost  Cost is a resource sacrificed to achieve a specific objective  Costs are usually measured in monetary units like dollars  Project cost management includes the processes required to ensure that the project is completed within an approved budget
  8. Project Cost Management Processes  Estimating costs: developing an approximation or estimate of the costs of the resources needed to complete a project  Determining the budget: allocating the overall cost estimate to individual work items to establish a baseline for measuring performance  Controlling costs: controlling changes to the project budget
  9. Project Cost Management Summary
  10. Basic Principles of Cost Management  Profits are revenues minus expenditures  Profit margin is the ratio of revenues to profits  Life cycle costing considers the total cost of ownership, or development plus support costs, for a project  Cash flow analysis determines the estimated annual costs and benefits for a project and the resulting annual cash flow
  11. Cost of Downtime for IT Applications
  12. Basic Principles of Cost Management  Tangible costs or benefits are those costs or benefits that an organization can easily measure in dollars  Intangible costs or benefits are costs or benefits that are difficult to measure in monetary terms  Direct costs are costs that can be directly related to producing the products and services of the project  Indirect costs are costs that are not directly related to the products or services of the project, but are indirectly related to performing the project  Sunk cost is money that has been spent in the past; when deciding what projects to invest in or continue, you should not include sunk costs
  13. Basic Principles of Cost Management  Learning curve theory states that when many items are produced repetitively, the unit cost of those items decreases in a regular pattern as more units are produced  Reserves are dollars included in a cost estimate to mitigate cost risk by allowing for future situations that are difficult to predict – Contingency reserves allow for future situations that may be partially planned for (sometimes called known unknowns) and are included in the project cost baseline – Management reserves allow for future situations that are unpredictable (sometimes called unknown unknowns)
  14. Resource Planning  Determine what physical resources (people, equipment, materials) and how much of them (units)  This can help you estimate costs
  15. Quick Note Using MS Project you can define all project resources MS PROJECT 2007
  16. 1. Estimating Cost  Cost estimating is the process of calculating the costs of the identified resources needed to complete the project work  The person doing the estimating must consider the possible fluctuations, conditions, and other causes of variances that could affect the total cost of the estimate  Project teams normally prepare cost estimates at various stages of a project, and these estimates should be fine-tuned as time progresses  It is also important to provide supporting details for the estimates, including ground rules and assumptions
  17. Cost Management Plan  A cost management plan is a document that describes how the organization will manage cost variances on the project  A large percentage of total project costs are often labor costs, so project managers must develop and track estimates for labor
  18. Types of Cost Estimates
  19. Cost Estimating Techniques  Analogous estimates, also called top-down estimates – use the actual cost of a previous, similar project as the basis for estimating the cost of the current project – This technique requires a good deal of expert judgment and is generally less costly than others are, but it can also be less accurate  Example: – An IT project to develop a certain application required 500 development hours. The total cost was $50,000 – A similar IT project is expected to be completed in 300 hours. What would be the cost?
  20. Cost Estimating Techniques  Bottom-up estimates – involve estimating individual activities and summing them to get a project total – This approach can increase the accuracy of the cost estimate, but it can also be time intensive and, therefore, expensive to develop
  21. Cost Estimating Techniques  Parametric modeling – uses project characteristics (parameters) in a mathematical model to estimate project costs – For example, in software development, the software code could be estimated by $50 per line depending on the type of software – In other words, price per unit It is good practice to use more than one technique for creating a cost estimate
  22. Problems with IT Cost Estimates  Estimates are done too quickly  Lack of estimating experience  Human beings are biased toward underestimation  Management desires accuracy
  23. 2. Determining the Budget  Cost Budgeting is the process of assigning cost to individual work item, based on the project’s WBS  The difference between cost estimates and cost budgeting is that cost estimates show costs by category, whereas a cost budget shows costs across time  Inputs to project cost budgeting are the cost estimates, the WBS and the project schedule
  24. Quick Note COST BUDGETING AND COST ESTIMATES MAY GO HAND-IN-HAND, BUT ESTIMATING SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE A BUDGET IS ASSIGNED
  25. Cost Baseline  Cost Baseline is time-phased budget that the PM uses to measure and monitor the cost performance  A project’s cost baseline shows what is expected to be spent on the project  The purpose of a cost baseline is to measure performance, and a baseline will predict the expenses over the life of the project
  26. Cost Baseline  Budget At Completion (BAC)
  27. 3. Controlling the Cost  Includes monitoring cost performance, ensuring that appropriate changes are included in a revised cost baseline and Informing project stakeholders of authorized changes to the project that will affect costs  Cost control is concerned with understanding why the cost variances, both good and bad, have occurred
  28. Cost Control Tools  Tools include: – Performance Management Reports – Earned Value Management (EVM)  EVM – Earned Value Management (EVM) is the process of measuring performance of project work against a plan to identify variances
  29. EVM  EVM is a project performance measurement technique that integrates scope, time, and cost data  Given a baseline (original plan plus approved changes), you can determine how well the project is meeting its goals  You must enter actual information periodically to use EVM  More and more organizations around the world are using EVM to help control project costs
  30. EVM Values  Planned Value (PV) – The work scheduled and the authorized budget to accomplish that work – Also known as Budget Cost of Work Schedule (BCWS)  Earned Value (EV) – The physical work completed to date and the authorized budget for that work – Also known as Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP)  Actual Cost (AC) – The actual amount of monies the project has required to date – Also known as Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP)
  31. Rate of Performance (RP)  Rate of performance (RP) is the ratio of actual work completed to the percentage of work planned to have been completed at any given time during the life of the project or activity
  32. Quick Example A PROJECT HAS A BUDGET OF $100,000 AND 12 MONTHS TO COMPLETE
  33. EVM Example: PV  What's the PV in month 6? – 6 months means 50% (6/12) PV = 50% X $100,000 = $50,000 BAC = $100,000 Month = 6 (50%) 50% of the project What’s the PV here? PV = $50,000
  34. EVM Example: EV  If to date we finished 25% of the work, what’s the EV? EV = 25% X $100,000 = $25,000 BAC = $100,000 Month = 6 (50%) What’s the EV here? EV = $25,000 25% completed to date
  35. EVM Example: AC  But what if we actually spent so far $35,000? AC = $35,000 BAC = $100,000 Month = 6 (50%) We actually spent $35,000 Even though the EV is $25,000 25% completed to date
  36. Quick Question Do you see a problem because AC > EV? What does that tell you? COST VARIANCE = EV – AC = -$10,000
  37. CPI  Cost Performance Index – A value that demonstrates how the project costs are performing – CPI is a value that reveals how much money the project is losing (or making) CPI = EV / AC
  38. CPI Example  BAC =$100,000  We completed 30% EV = 30% x 100,000 = $30,000  Actual Costs were AC = $32,000  CPI = EV/AC CPI= 30,000/32,000 = 0.94  If CPI = 0.94 – This means that for every $1we spent, we’ve done only $0.94 worth of work (6 cents are wasted)
  39. Quick Note CPI SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO 1 IF CPI < 1  POOR PERFORMANCE IF CPI > 1  NOT NECESSARILY GOOD PERFORMANCE (MAYBE OUR ESTIMATES WERE INFLATED)
  40. EAC  Estimate At Completion – An estimate of what the total cost of the project will be – Before the project begins, the project manager completes an estimate for the project deliverables based on the WBS – Different ways to calculate EAC= BAC / CPI
  41. EVM Formulas
  42. EVM Example Given data CV = EV – AC = 5000 -15000 = -10000 SV = EV – PV = 5000 – 10000 = -5000 CPI = EV/AC = 5000/15000 = 33% SPI = EV /PV = 5000/10000 = 50%
  43. CPI and Cumulative CPI  Consider a company that took earned value measurements at monthly intervals for the past 3 months as summarized in the table below: EV AC Month 1 $22,000 $13,700 Month 2 $151,000 $137,900 Month 3 $107,000 $98,400
  44. Review  Mark one value in each column that shows the most desirable value. SPI CPI Payback Period ROI 1 .5 16 mos. 9% 0 1 2 yrs. 12% 0.8 1.2 16 wks. -2% 1.2 1.15 25 mos. 3%
  45. Review  Project X was projected to take 4 months and cost $70,000 per month. At the end of month one, the project was 20% complete, and had spend $89,000. At the end of month two, it was 40% complete and had spent $151,000. What is the cumulative CPI for project at the end of month two.

Notas del editor

  1. Costs should be planned, quantified, and measured The project manager should tie costs to activities and resources and build the estimates from bottom up. A common practice is that the high-level budget is determined before knowing costs; Many companies use fiscal year planning cycles that must be done far in advance of their project planning. Although budget constraints are a fact of life, but instead of blindly accepting whatever budget is specified by management, the PM carefully reviews the scope of work and duration estimates and then reconciles them to the scope and costs. Adjustments to the scope, budget, or the schedule is easier to justify by working up from the detailed level instead of from the top-down. When it comes to detailed planning: Scope (first) -> Schedule(second) -> Budget(third).
  2. Input to the process to create a budget: Well defined WBS Activity List Resource and Duration for each activity Schedule Budget then becomes a task of applying rates against those resources and activities to create: activity cost estimate, a cost baseline, and a cost management plan. Scope Definition -> Create WBS -> Activity Definition -> Activity Resource Estimating -> Activity Duration Estimating -> Estimate Cost
  3. INITIATING - None PLANNING - Estimate Costs, Determine Budget EXECUTING - None CONTROLLING - Controlling Costs CLOSING - None
  4. Key Outputs Estimate Costs - Activity Cost Estimates Determine Budget - Cost Baseline, Funding Requirements Cost Control - Performance Measurements, Forecasted Completion, Recommend Corrective Actions
  5. Life Cycle Costing Instead of asking “How much will this product cost to develop?” life cycle costing looks at the Total Cost of Ownership from purchase/creation through operations and finally to disposal; it is a practice that encourages making decisions based on the bigger picture of ownership costs. For example: it may be less expensive for the project to use generic computer servers to develop a software product; however if the organization has expertise and service contracts with IBM, then the project has made a short-sighted decision that will have adverse effects downstream.
  6. It is normal for the cost estimates that will be produced as a result of the “Estimate Cost” process to include reserve/contingency amounts. This is simply a buffer against slippage on the project. The amount of reserve being planned reflects the risk associated with the project. Cost of Quality The technique of evaluating the cost of quality (COQ), looks at all the costs that will be realized in order to achieve quality. This tool is often used in the Quality Planning Process. The costs of items that are not conformant to the quality standards are known as “cost of poor quality “COpQ”.
  7. It is equally important to include enough information on how you derived the activity cost estimates. Requested Changes When costs are estimated, it is normal that change requests to the project scope/schedule would be made. For instance cost estimates came in higher than the allowable cost constraint, then the project team might elect to review elements of the scope to determine whether there were any non-essential elements that could be cut down in order to get the costs back on track.
  8. Cost Management Plan updates The cost management plan details how the project costs will be managed and how change or requested changes to the project costs will be managed. As the activity cost estimates are created, it is normal that this plan would be updated, sometimes significantly.
  9. Cost Estimates, prepared for each activity, are thought of in terms of their accuracy. In other words, how much leeway are you giving yourself with your estimating? Typically, the closer in time you get to actually spending money for an activity, the more precise you want that activity’s estimate to be.
  10. Analogous estimates are typically easier to use, and their accuracy depends on how similar the two projects actually are.
  11. Although budget constraints are a fact of life, but instead of blindly accepting whatever budget is specified by management, the PM carefully reviews the scope of work and duration estimates and then reconciles them to the scope and costs. Adjustments to the scope, budget, or the schedule is easier to justify by working up from the detailed level instead of from the top-down. When it comes to detailed planning: Scope (first) -> Schedule(second) -> Budget(third).
  12. Parametric modeling is used on projects with a high degree of historical information, and it works best for linear, scalable projects. For instance, if you knew that it costs $4,000,000 to build a mile of roadway, then you could estimate that it would cost $32,000,000 o build 8 miles of road.
  13. A budget, also known as cost baseline, takes the estimated project expenditures and maps them back to dates on the calendar Cost budgeting process phases the costs so that the performing organization will know how to plan for cash flow and likely expenditures. A good cost baseline will prevent the organization from tying up too much money throughout the life of the project.
  14. Cost baseline specifies not only what costs will be incurred, but when they will be incurred.
  15. Controlling processes Proactive – They do not merely wait for changes to occur, instead, they try to influence the factors that lead to a change. Measurement – Measure what was executed against what was planned. If the results do not match, then appropriate steps are taken to bring the two back in line. This could be either changing future plans or changing the way the work is performed. Cost control is primarily concerned with cost variance. Even positive cost (good) variances need to be understood and the plan must be adjusted. Cost control is not a process that is performed only once. Instead, it is performed regularly throughout the project, typically as soon as the project costs are incurred. Example performing cost control monthly during planning phases and weekly during the execution phases where costs usually peak. Performance reports: provide a summary of how costs are progressing against the plan for work completed. Approved changes: Any change request that are approved should be evaluated for their impact on the cost baseline.
  16. Samer Aoudi:
  17. The CPI of month 3 is 1.09 but the cumulative index for the three months is 1.12
  18. SPI = 1.2 (ahead of schedule) CPI = 1.2 (under budget; project is getting $1.2 worth of performance for every $1 spent.) Payback Period = 16 wks. (shortest time to recoup the project cost) ROI = 12%
  19. EV (Month 1) = 20% * 280,000 = $56,000 EV (Month 2) = 20% * 280,000 = $56,000 EV (at the end of 2 months) = $112,000 AC(at the end of 2 months) = $151,000 Cumulative CPI = EV/AC = 112,000/151,000 = 0.74
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