1) Africa's current transport infrastructure is inadequate to support economic growth and integration, with only a small percentage of roads paved and few countries having rail or transport networks above the global average.
2) Expanding transport infrastructure through projects like PIDA's vision for an integrated transport network could slash transport costs, boost intra-African trade to over 20% from the current 12%, and create millions of jobs.
3) High speed rail has the potential to further connect cities and regions, ease congestion on existing networks, and stimulate economic development, but will require large capital investments that may not be fully recovered.
2. 2
Contents
Africa high speed rail
1. An overview of High Speed Rail Systems
2. The case for intra-Africa integration and connectivity
3. Africa transport networks - current and future
4. Summary and recommendations
3. 3
High Speed Rail System – An Overview
The High Speed Rail (HSR) System objectives are:
Support population and economic growth.
Enable social and economic development in regional and urban areas.
Relieve transport congestion of existing and future systems.
Help support land use objectives designed to achieve sustainable ecological and environmental outcomes given continued
urbanisation, higher density living and the growth of regional centres.
Lessons learned from international experience
1. Integration
HSR has the effect of examining how other modes will meet
future transport, economic development and policy objectives.
Integration ensures that HSR complements existing transport
modes.
Lesson learned: HSR must support complementary transport
services.
2. Support for regional land use goals
HSR programs represent an opportunity to transform cities and
regions over time.
Properly planned, HSR should link regional centres to major
metropolitan areas and provide significant development
opportunities.
If properly integrated into the transport system, population and
economic growth can be directed to support regional land use
planning goals.
Lessons learned: HSR stimulate regional development.
3. Capital costs
There are only a few examples of a HSR service fully
recovering capital costs except in the very long term.
Operations and maintenance costs may be self-funding, but
infrastructure costs are unlikely to be fully recovered without a
significant government contribution.
Lessons learned: capital costs are unlikely to be recovered.
4. De-congestion of existing transport systems
Provides an opportunity to reallocate intercity patronage
demand and improve capacity on existing constrained regional
rail systems.
City-to-city HSR links can ease congestion
HSR projects can benefit freight operations by creating
capacity on existing networks.
Lessons learned: Optimise infrastructure performance.
4. 4
Exploitation models
• Complete separation between HS and conventional services, each
with its own infrastructure.
• One of the major advantages of this model is that market
organisation of both HSR and conventional services are fully
independent
• Example: Shinkansen Model
• HS trains run either on specifically built new lines or on upgraded
segments of conventional lines.
• Building costs are reduced, which is one of the main advantages
of this model.
• Example: French Model
• Some conventional trains run on HS lines.
• The main advantages of this model are the saving of rolling stock
acquisition and maintenance costs, and the flexibility for providing
intermediate HS services on certain routes.
• Example: Spanish Model
• Allows for the maximum flexibility, since this is the case where
both HS and conventional services can run (at their corresponding
speeds) on each type of infrastructure.
• The price for this wider use of the infrastructure is the significant
increase in maintenance costs.
• Example: German intercity trains
5. 5
High speed lines in the World (as at 1 November 2013)
Country Region
In
Operation
(km)
Under
construction
(km)
Planned
(km)
Total
distance
(km)
Speed
(km/h)
Gauge
(mm)
China Asia 9,867 9,081 3,777 22,726 200-350 1,435
Spain Europe 2,515 1,308 1,702 5,525 200-300 1,435
Japan Asia 2,664 779 179 3,622 110-320 1,435
Turkey Europe/Asia 444 603 1,758 2,805 160-250 1,435
France Europe 2,036 757 2,407 5,200 300-320 1,435
Germany Europe 1,334 428 495 2,257 230-300 1,435
Italy Europe 923 0 395 1,318 250-300 1,435
South Korea Asia 412 186 49 647 300 1,435
Saudi Arabia Middle East 0 550 0 550 300 1,435
Other Various 1,277 272 5,585 7,134
TOTAL 21,472 13,964 16,347 51,784
Source: Own analysis and International Union of Railways, High Speed Lines Around the World, Updated 1 November 2013
6. 6
High speed rail systems in the world - 2013
Source: International Union of Railways, High Speed Around the World, 1 November 2013
7. 7
High speed rail systems in the world - 2025
Source: International Union of Railways, High Speed Around the World, 1 November 2013
8. 8
Contents
Africa high speed rail
1. An overview of High Speed Rail Systems
2. The case for intra-Africa integration and connectivity
3. Africa transport networks - current and future
4. Summary and recommendations
9. 9
Economic growth in the ‘African Lions’ expected be 7.2% on average
over the next 9 years from 2014 to 2023
Economic growth in Africa is expected to be spearheaded by the ten economies below known as the ‘African
Lions’. These countries are poised for rapid growth over the long term, and therefore investment opportunities
abound.
Country Average
Annual
Real GDP
Growth
2014-2023
%
Nominal
GDP
2014f
US$bn
Business
Environme
nt Rating
Population
2014f
Mn
Mozambique 9.9 17 34.3 27
Tanzania 8.5 36 39.0 51
Côte d'Ivoire 7.9 33 33.0 21
Uganda 7.6 27 40.2 39
Nigeria 7 351 39.9 179
Zambia 6.9 24 43.5 15
Angola 6.5 168 30.0 22
Ghana 6.4 48 46.0 26
Kenya 5.9 51 41.5 46
Ethiopia 5.6 43 32.9 97
Source: Business Monitor International
10. 10
Top 20 most populated economies in Africa
(overlaid with South African Airways direct routes)
Nigeria
173.6 2896
48.9 502.9
Ethiopia
94.1 426
36.3 40.1
Egypt
82.1 3159
49.4 255.1
Congo (DRC)
67.5 314
27.4 21.2
South Africa
52.8 6646
58.5 350.8
Tanzania
49.3 644
49 31.7
Kenya
44.4 966
46.2 42.9
Algeria
39.2 5384
49.8 211.1
Sudan
38 1587
23.6 60.3
Uganda
37.6 671
46.8 22.8
Morocco
33 3132
54.2 104
Ghana
25.9 1519
51.8 39.4
Mozambique
25.8 603
44.1 15.6
Madagascar
22.9 459
34.6 10.5
Cameroon
22.3 1328
43 29.6
Angola
21.5 6187
47.3 132.9
Cote d`Ivoire
20.3 1396
44 28.4
Niger
17.8 422
37.9 7.5
Burkina Faso
16.9 724
46.7 12.3
Malawi
16.4 375
46.4 6.1
POPULATION:
Population, mn
GDP: GDP per capita,
USD
RATINGS:
Composite Rating,
%
GDP: Nominal GDP,
USDbn
South African Airways
direct routes
Source: Business Monitor International, South African Airways
11. 11
African population is expected to grow rapidly to 2040 and so will
urbanisation
Africa’s middle class, at more than ~300 million people and growing at a rate of 3.2% p.a. since 1983, will
provide a formidable source of consumer demand; thereby increasing intra-Africa trade.
Source: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), 2015; United Nations, 2011
12. There is significant Africa intra-trade potential
Africa’s intra-regional trade is low and can only grow with industrial
integration and infrastructure development
87
79
67
12
AsiaEuropeAmericaAfrica
Africa’s intra-regional trade compared to
major continents
%
1 Port Management Association of Eastern and Southern Africa
13. 13
Through increased regional connectivity, intra-Africa trade has
potential to grow from 12.8% (2012)
Source: WTO Secretariat
Intra-African exports are fairly
diversified, though still dominated
by primary products.
Manufactured and intermediate
goods appear to be of more
significance in trade within regional
groups.
Trade remains characterised by a
small number of lightly processed
exports with petroleum products
accounting for nearly 33% of the
value of intra-African exports in
2012, up from 25% in 2010.
There are different trading patterns
in different regions and also in the
pattern of goods traded within a
region. In two of the five regions,
North and Central Africa, intra -
African exports account for only a
small or trivial share of total
exports by member states.
14. 14
Africa can benefit from integration and connectivity resulting in the
free flow of goods, services, capital and people
Source: ECA calculation based on COMTRADE Database
Economies that are more integrated into
global production networks received the
lion’s share of Africa’s imported
intermediates (Egypt, South Africa, Algeria,
Nigeria, Morocco, and Tunisia). These
economies tend to source less than 5
percent of these inputs from the region, and
this share has remained rather stable over
the period considered.
This could indicate that the intermediate
inputs required by these economies are too
complex to be conveniently produced in
other African economies.
At the other end of the spectrum, countries
in Southern Africa appear to import roughly
75 percent of their intermediates from the
regional market, due to the presence of a
well-diversified neighbouring economy such
as South Africa, capable of supplying the
required inputs.
The low levels of connectivity between
African economies are largely due to an
incomplete legal architecture for regional
integration, poor physical infrastructure and
one-way trading relationships.
Share of intermediate imports sourced from Africa (%)
15. 15
Contents
Africa high speed rail
1. An overview of High Speed Rail Systems
2. The case for intra-Africa integration and connectivity
3. Africa transport networks - current and future
4. Summary and recommendations
16. 16
Africa has about 2.09 million km of roads of which 21.17% is paved
• Many of Africa’s 54 countries are very
small, with populations of fewer than
20 million and economies smaller
than $10 billion—too small to grow on
their own.
• The infrastructure systems, like
Africa’s borders, are reflections of the
continent’s colonial past, with roads,
ports, and railroads built for resource
extraction and political control, rather
than to bind territories together
economically or socially.
• The road infrastructure statistics in
Africa show that 65% of the missing
links in the Trans-African Highway
(TAH) network are situated in Central
Africa. Of all existing sections, only
one third is paved in this part of the
continent.
• These issues indicate the particular
difficulty that landlocked countries
face in establishing international trade
and transport.
Source: Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), Africa's Infrastructure Outlooks 2040
(Nepad, African Union, AfDB)
17. 17
Current state of transport infrastructure in Africa
The World Economic Forum’s 2012/13 Global Competitiveness Report show that only seven African
countries’ transport infrastructure is above the global average. The African countries with better
infrastructure are generally located in North and Southern Africa.
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Survey 2012/13
18. 18
Current state of road infrastructure in Africa
There are 11 African countries where the road infrastructure is better than the global average. The best ranked
African countries are Namibia (35th), Rwanda (40th) and South Africa (42nd), while the worst-ranked are
Guinea (140th), Gabon (138th) and Mozambique (135th).
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Survey 2012/13
19. 19
Current state of rail infrastructure in Africa
19
There are only six African countries with better railroad infrastructure than the global average. Three of them
(Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt) are in North Africa, while the remaining three (Namibia, South Africa and
Swaziland) are from Southern Africa.
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Survey 2012/13
20. 20
Cost of export from African countries by cost component (2012)
At a global level, between 2006 and 2012, import/export costs have increased by 23% in nominal terms. A similar
upward tendency has taken place also within Africa, mainly on account of rising costs for document preparation
and inland transport.
Source: ECA calculation based on Doing Business Database
21. 21
Cost of import into African countries by cost component (2012)
PIDA’s vision for Africa infrastructure integration is to slash transport costs and boost intra-African trade.
Transport efficiency gains will be at least $172 billion in the African Regional Transport Integration
Network (ARTIN), with the potential for much larger savings as trade corridors open.
Source: ECA calculation based on Doing Business Database
22. 22
Ease of travel within Africa compared to other regions
Free movement by people is supposed
to be the hallmark of African integration,
facilitating trade growth across the
continent.
Research by McKinsey (2013) found
that Africa’s laws on free movement
remain generally restrictive despite
political commitments to bring down
borders.
Central Africa is the most restrictive
region and West Africa the most liberal
in terms of visa free travel.
Some African countries fail to provide
even for strategic regional preferences
when deciding visas.
North Americans, followed by
Europeans, enjoy the most liberal entry
into Africa. They get visa-free travel or
can obtain a visa on arrival in at least
half the countries on the continent.
Africans need visas to get into at least
two thirds of other African countries.
1. No distinction made between tourist and business visa. Results are for tourist visas. Business visas may be required
before arrival.
Note: Based on data available end 2012.
Source: This work was done as a collaborative effort between McKinsey, the AfDB and WEF Global Agenda Council on Africa.
23. 23
PIDA’s Vision 2040
Africa's competitiveness will be established in
niche markets and in a growing spectrum of
mainstream activities, including agriculture
and manufacturing.
Africa's share of world trade will be much
higher, at least twice today's share of 2%.
Up to 15 million new jobs will be created for
the construction, operation and maintenance
of PIDA projects, with many more millions
created indirectly through the increased
economic activity they will enable.
Intra-African trade share will double from the
current levels of 12-13%.
Water resources and basins will be secured
for future generations.
ICT bandwidth will handle demand swells by a
factor of 20.
Access to electricity will be no less than 60%
in any African country, providing access to an
additional 800 million people.
Source: Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), Africa's Infrastructure Outlooks 2040
(Nepad, African Union, AfDB)
PIDA assumes that the average economic growth rate for
African countries will be 6% a year between 2010 and
2040, driven by a surging population, increasing levels of
education and technology absorption.
This growth implies that, over the 30 years to 2040, the
GDP of African countries will multiply six fold, and the
average per capita income will rise above $10,000 for all
countries. This continuing growth and prosperity will
swell the demand for infrastructure.
Assuming that this growth is achieved, transport
volumes will increase 6-8 times, with a particularly
strong increase of up to 14 times for some
landlocked countries. Port throughput will rise from
265 million tons in 2009, to more than 2 billion tons
in 2040.
This growing infrastructure demand presents a
critical challenge for Africa as it competes in global
and regional trade markets that rely on just-in-time
production and flexible, speedy and reliable delivery.
Thereby closing the infrastructure deficit is vital for
economic prosperity and sustainable development.
24. 24
Planned transport networks according to PIDA 2020 & 2040
The essential benefit of regional
infrastructure is to make possible
the formation of large, competitive
markets in place.
Regional infrastructure does this by
lowering transport costs (in
particular to and from hinterlands
and landlocked countries);
establishing connectivity so that
goods can reach markets and
people can exchange information
and reach jobs; providing lower-
cost energy for expanding
agricultural, industrial and mining
production.
The transport programme links the
major production and consumption
centres, provides connectivity
among the major cities, defines the
best hub ports and railway routes
and opens the land-locked
countries to improved regional and
continental trade.
Source: Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), Africa's Infrastructure Outlooks 2040
(Nepad, African Union, AfDB)
25. 25
The African Regional Transport Integration Network (ARTIN) in 2009
and 2040
Source: Africa Transport Outlook 2040
26. 26
Forecast capacity gaps in African Regional Transport Integration
Network (ARTIN) corridors
Source: Africa Transport Outlook 2040
27. 27
African Action Plan (AAP) priority programmes in transport
2010–2015: Railway projects
Title Region
Estimated Cost
& Commitments
Development
Stage Description
Regional
Contact
Isaka‐Kigali‐Bujumbura
Railway
East US$ 4 billion
* US$ 1.5 million
(feasibility study)
IPPF
Stage 2: Feasibility/
Needs Assessment
A feasibility study is underway for the extension of the railway line
from Isaka (Tanzania) to Kigali (Rwanda) and Bujumbura (Burundi).
This project is part of the Dar es Salaam‐Kigali‐
Bujumbura Central Transport Corridor. The new railway line would
provide an alternative route to the seaport of Dar es Salaam for
landlocked countries Rwanda and Burundi, promoting inter‐state
trade and integration.
EAC
AfricaRail West US$ 1‐1.5 billion
(Phase 1
Cotonou‐
Parakou‐Dosso‐
Niamey)
US$ 4 million
(detailed studies)
Stage 3:
Programme/
Project Structuring
and Promotion
AfricaRail is a project to rehabilitate and construct 2,000 km of
new railway to link the railway systems of Ivory Coast, Burkina
Faso, Niger, Benin and Togo (all 1,000 mm narrow gauge), including
a train service linking the ports of Lomé and Cotonou.
Specifically, the project involves the following sections: Benin to
Niger from Parakou‐Malanville‐Gaya‐Dosso‐
Niamey (334 km); Burkina to Niger from Kaya‐Dori‐Terra‐
Niamey (430 km); Dori‐Tambao (90 km); Togo to Benin from Lomé‐
Anecho‐Segbohue (90 km); and Burkina to Togo from
Ouagadougou‐Blittaw (746 km). A future stage of the project
would link Mali (1,000 mm), Nigeria (1,067 mm gauge changing to
1,435 mm) and Ghana (1,067mm gauge).
ECOWAS
Brazzaville‐Kinshasa
Rail/Road Bridge and
Railway Extension
Kinshasa ‐ Ilebo
Centra
l
US$ 7.7 million
(Feasibility
Study)
*ABD/ADF
Stage 2: Feasibility/
Needs Assessment
This rail and road bridge will link the two capital cities of Brazzaville
(Republic of Congo) and Kinshasa (DRC), across the Congo river.
The bridge will complete a missing road link of the
Trans‐African Highway 3 from Tripoli‐Windhoek‐ Cape Town, and
with the railway extension will fill a major gap (700 km) in the
Point Noire‐South‐Eastern Africa railway network. The bridge
and extension will promote regional integration and economic
development in both countries, and also serve as an inter‐state
and sub‐regional Trans‐African link. A feasibility study is underway.
ECCAS
Source: The AU/NEPAD African Action Plan 2010‐2015 (2010)
28. 28
Contents
Africa high speed rail
1. An overview of High Speed Rail Systems
2. The case for intra-Africa integration and connectivity
3. Africa transport networks - current and future
4. Summary and recommendations
29. 29
High Speed Rail System as a tool for regional integration and
development
Around the World
High Speed Rail (HSR) has become worldwide one
of the most prominent transport modes in recent
years.
Several countries in Europe, America and in Asia
are extending their networks and pushing these
developments through the planning and construction
of new lines.
Apart from connections between two metropolitan
areas; cities and regions also benefit in a social or
economic way from HSR and obtain HSR
connections as a location advantage in comparison
to cities or regions without such a link.
The benefit is through shorter travelling times and
lower travel costs for users. These benefits are
assumed to be an initial starting point for additional
development in cities or regions.
Potential benefits for Africa
Potential to connect metropolitan areas, cities and
regions and help to reduce travelling times and
lower travel costs for users.
The project implementation can fast-track Africa’s
laws aimed at allowing free movement of goods,
services, capital and people, leading to the
formation of large, competitive markets Africa.
The HSR can link major production and
consumption centres and open up land-locked
countries in order to improve inter–Africa trade and
allow these countries to access seaports.
Will boost Africa’s economic growth, through the
development of Africa’s manufacturing industry
and increased job creation opportunities.
Can attract and generate proprietary rail
technology and investments to the continent.
Dual use of rail infrastructure for freight
transportation must be investigated to reduce
financial risk and improve investment appraisal of
project (refer to exploitation model).
34. Economic Benefits of High Speed Rail
• High speed rail delivers fast, efficient transportation so riders can save time,
energy, and money.
• HSR is extremely reliable and operates in all weather conditions.
• HSR is not subject to congestion, so it operates on schedule every day
without delay - especially during rush hour and peak travel times.
• HSR spurs the revitalization of cities by encouraging high density, mixed-use
real estate development around the stations.
• HSR also fosters economic development in second-tier cities along train
routes.
• HSR links cities together into integrated regions that can then function as a
single stronger economy.
• HSR broadens labour markets and offers workers a wider network of
employers to choose from.
• HSR encourages and enables the development of technology clusters with
fast easy access between locations.
• HSR also expands visitor markets and tourism while increasing visitor
spending.
35. High Speed Rail in Nigeria
• Nigeria’s high speed rail project initiated by President Goodluck Jonathan has
been rated among the global top 100 world-class infrastructure projects by
KPMG.
• The rail will connect Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Warri, Bauchi, Abuja, and Port
Harcourt and will cost the country $13 billion, much of which will be financed
with a loan from the Export Import Bank of China.
• The China Railway Construction Corporation has secured the contract to build
the 3,218-kilometre network, which will be digitally operated using fibre-
optic cables, radio communication and wireless services.
• The project is designed to cover 54 stations and will take 25 years to build.
36. High Speed Rail in Morocco
• The first of 12 Alstom Duplex high speed trainsets for national railway ONCF
was unloaded at the Port of Tanger on June 29. It had been shipped from the
Port of La Pallice near La Rochelle in France onboard Ville de Bordeaux, a roll-
on roll-off vessel custom-built to carry Airbus A380 aircraft sections.
• The double-deck trainsets are based on the TGV Duplex design that has been
in service with French national operator SNCF since 1996, but adapted for
local operating conditions.
37. • They are to be used on Tanger – Casablanca services, using a 320 km route
including a 183 km high speed line between Tanger and Kénitra which is
being built for operation at up to 320 km/h. From Kénitra to Casablanca the
services will use a conventional line upgraded for speeds up to 220 km/h.
• Opening of the new line was planned for December 2015 when construction
was launched by King Mohammed VI and French President Nicolas Sarkozy in
September 2011, but delays to the infrastructure works mean this has now
been put back to 2017.
• The rolling stock contract worth almost €400m was signed by ONCF and
Alstom in December 2010. The trainsets are to be maintained by Société
Marocaine de Maintenance des Rames à Grande Vitesse, a 60:40 joint
venture of ONCF and SNCF under a separate 15-year deal worth €175m.
High Speed Rail in Morocco
38. 38
Interconnectivity & interoperability
Cape-gauge (1067mm) provides flexibility
for SADC rail growth as an existing
interconnected system
Restore rail infrastructure to agreed
standards
Axle loading, bridge and tunnel structures
Re-establish disconnected rail links
Introduce minimum maintenance
standards
Ensure longevity and sustainability of:
Infrastructure, and
Rolling stock
Productivity and Efficient use of rolling
stock
Cooperate to enhance inter-connectivity and
interoperability
Enhanced through Collaboration - Corridor
approach
Angola
Algeria
Botswana
Burkina
Faso
Cape Verde
Egypt
Gabon
Côte
d’Ivoire
Djibouti
Ghana
Guinea
Namibia
Nigeria
Zambia
Mauritania
South Africa
Sudan
Senegal
Swaziland
Tanzania
Uganda
Zimbabwe
Burundi
Western Sahara
Democratic
Republic
of Congo
South
Sudan Ethiopia
Kenya
ChadNiger
Libya
Tunisia
Gambia
Sierra Leone
Liberia
Lesotho
1435 mm
1065/1067 mm
Main gauge
1000 mm
1000/67 mm
No railways
1435/1000 mm
1435/1055 mm
950 mm
African Railways
Gauge
39. SADC Challenges
The SADC region is regarded as the next growth frontier due to its extensive minerals wealth, growth in consumer
populations and relatively good infrastructure, road in particular:-
• Key challenges hinders its growth and trade remain strained;
• Poor infrastructure, low density across transport networks, inefficient border processes and fragmented
regulatory environments continue to dog it;
• Much of rail and port infrastructure was built for resource extraction rather than to facilitate trade;
• Landlocked countries within the region require efficient transport links to and from the sea in order to enjoy
competitive prices for landed goods and exports to global markets;
• Most ports within the region currently operate near capacity and experience delays due to poor integration with
other transport modes and slow clearance processes; and
• The SADC region must attain the goal of becoming a seamless, cost-effective, fully integrated and internationally
competitive region with appropriate and substantial investments in road, rail and ports to secure the future of the
region.
40. Mineral deposits are scattered around the SADC region and it needs close
collaboration with regional countries for these minerals to be transported
40
41. 41
The North South Corridor will play a Vital role in the region and will
handle over 70 million tonnes in 2040.
42. Corridor Focus
Building on Inter-Railway Agreements…
Bilateral agreements aim to promote inter-operability
between SADC railways and typically define operational,
safety and technical standards between corresponding
countries
…To Develop Corridors
Corridors are a broader concept defined by flows of
goods across railway and country boundaries in a
seamless manner and require cooperation between
multi-role players
Zambia
Botswana
Namibia
Tanzania
Democratic
Republic of
Congo
Angola
South Africa
North-South Corridor
East West Corridor
Maputo Corridor
43. As part of the AU initiatives, South Africa is the Champion for the North South
Corridor
This corridor is strategic to Sub Saharan Africa
Source: Transnet Africa Research, PIDA projects, NEPAD
43