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Economy... at a glance June 2020

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Monthly summary of the state of the Spanish and international economy.

Publicado en: Economía y finanzas
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Economy... at a glance June 2020

  1. 1. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2020. General Industrial and Services Turnover, Spain YoY change (%) -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Industry Services 4.6 1 2 3 4 5 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Industry and Services, Spain In April, the General Industrial Turnover Index fell 40.8% year-on-year as a result of the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown measures. This setback is the biggest since reporting began. By sectors, the car industry was the hardest hit (-90.4% year-on-year), followed by the clothing industry (-80%). On the other hand, the only sector to increase turnover was the pharmaceutical industry (4.9% year-on-year). In the service sector, the General Business Turnover Index fell 41.4% year-on-year. Decreases in the hospitality industry (-94.4%) and the sale and repair of motor vehicles-motorcycles sector (-83.0%) particularly stand out. In terms of employment, occupation in this sector fell 5.5% year-on-year after the declaration of the state of emergency. The sectors most affected were the hospitality industry (-14.9% year-on-year) and the administrative and support service activities sector (-8.3%). The fall would have been greater if companies had not applied to Temporary Workface Reduction Scheme (ERTE). Government debt, Spain The General Government debt increased 4.6% year-on-year in April (2.2 pp more than in April 2019), to €1,234,694 million (99.2% of GDP), a new historic maximum. By Administrations, State debt increased 5.5% year-on-year, to €1,098,937 million, and that of the Autonomous Communities by 1.2% (to €300,857 million). For its part, Social Security increased its indebtedness by 22.4% year-on-year (€55,023 million). On the other hand, Local Government debt fell 8% year-on-year, reaching €24,228 million. Hotel Sector, Spain In light of the travel restrictions as a result of the coronavirus, overnight hotel stays in May fell 99.2% year-on-year (vs. -0.1% in May 2019) with 259,217 in total. Hotel occupancy fell 78.9% year-on-year (vs. -1.2% in May 2019), covering just 12.1% of available places. Madrid was the Autonomous Community with the highest level of occupancy (18.1% of the total). Between January and May, overnight hotel stays fell 62.4% year-on-year (to a total of 42,298,121). Economy… at a glance June 2020 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2020. Overnight hotel stays, Spain Millions of overnight hotel stays Government debt, Spain YoY change (%) Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2020.
  2. 2. ‘Economy at a glance’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However, the Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo de Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning. Singapore Denmark Switzerland Netherlands Hong Kong Spain … Sweden Norway Canada UAE US 0 2 4 6 8 10 2007 2011 2017 2018 2019 2020 -0.9 0.1 0.6 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Estonia Luxembourg Cyprus Slovenia Spain Latvia Ireland Greece Croatia Portugal Italy Belgium Denmark Finland Eurozone Sweden Lithuania France Germany EU Austria Malta Bulgaria Netherlands Romania Slovakia Hungary CzechRepublic Poland Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 EU 5.2 24.7 -7.5 -7.4 -55.1 -76.3 -52.2 Germany 9.7 19.5 -7.3 -10.8 -37.7 -61.1 -49.5 France 0.7 27.7 -13.4 -2.7 -72.2 -88.8 -50.3 Italy 2.2 12.5 -5.9 -8.8 -85.4 -97.5 -49.5 Spain 2.3 6.6 -7.6 -6.0 -69.3 -96.5 -72.7 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2018 2019 2020 Car sales, EU In spite of the easing of the lockdown measures, EU vehicle sales in May remained at significantly low levels (581,161 vehicles). The registration of newcarsfell52.2%year-on-yearafterplummeting 76.3%inApril. Among the main economies of the region, Spain registeredthebiggestfallat72.7%year-on-year(to 34,337 vehicles). In other countries, the decreases were not so sharp, around 50% year- on-year: - In Germany there were 168,148 new car registrations (28.9% of the total). - In Italy 96,310 (16.5% of the total). - In France 99,711 (5.9% of the total). CPI, EU InMay,EUCPIincreased0.6%year-on-year(vs. 1.6%inMay2019)andtheEurozoneremainedat 0.1% (vs. 1.2% in May 2019). Low inflation is largely dueto the economic standstill asa result of Covid-19 and the fall in energy prices. Countries which showed the biggest decreases year-on-year were Estonia (-1.8%), Luxemburg (-1.6%) and Cyprus (-1.4%); on the other hand, Poland and the Czech Republic exceeded 3% year-on-year. CompetitivenessIndex(IMD),2020 The World Competitiveness Ranking 2020, drawnupbyIMD,whichmeasuresthedegreeof competitiveness and ability to generate prosperity of 69 economies, placed Singapore in first position for the second year running, followedbyDenmarkandSwitzerland. The drop from 3rd to 10th place by the United States for the first time in its history is particularly notable. This development is fundamentally explained by management of the pandemic,thedeteriorationofthehealthservice, social fracture within the political framework, and the trade war (that started in 2018) with China,whichfellfrom 14th position to20th . Spain remained at its previous position of 36th , with unemployment regulation (59th position) and political instability (53rd position) standing outfornegativereasons. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMD, 2020. New car registrations, EU Thousands of cars Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on ACEA, 2020. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2020. New car registrations, EU YoY change (%) CPI, EU YoY change (%) Top10 World Competitiveness Ranking 2020, IMD Position Evolution of US World Competitiveness Ranking, IMD Position