Brian Kelsey's presentation at the Temple Economic Development Corporation's 2015 Industry Appreciation Luncheon

1. Temple, Texas
2015 State of the Economy
Industry Appreciation Luncheon
Hilton Garden Inn Temple
April 28, 2015
Brian Kelsey
Civic Analytics LLC
7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108
Austin, TX 78757
866-512-3835
brian@civicanalytics.com
http://civicanalytics.com

2. 2
• Current performance—what
does secondary data say on
state of Temple economy?
• What does baseline forecast
suggest for next few years?
• Work plan—what potential
opportunities stand out?
Presentation Overview

3. 3
Temple is 35th fastest growing city in Texas
2012 2013 Change Growth
Killeen 135,015 137,147 2,132 1.6%
Temple 69,264 70,190 926 1.3%
Waco 127,771 129,030 1,259 1.0%
Belton 19,399 19,572 173 0.9%
Cameron 5,425 5,428 3 0.1%
McGregor 5,049 5,051 2 0.0%
Texas 26,060,796 26,448,193 387,397 1.5%
Temple was the 47th
largest city in Texas in
2013, unchanged from
the previous year.
Temple was the 35th
fastest growing city in
Texas in 2013 (%), on
pace with Dallas and
Denton in % terms.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, July 2013.

4. 4
Temple sales tax base is growing faster (%)
than most of region—up $73M in 2009-13
2009* 2013 Change Growth
Belton $187,980,423 $226,393,405 $38,412,982 20%
Temple $839,275,082 $912,544,820 $73,269,738 9%
Waco $1,542,969,638 $1,662,762,300 $119,792,662 8%
Cameron $33,926,569 $36,253,361 $2,326,792 7%
Killeen $1,091,829,915 $1,050,068,721 -$41,761,194 -4%
McGregor N/A N/A N/A N/A
Total $3,695,981,627 $3,888,022,607 $192,040,980 5%
Source: Texas Comptroller. * 2009 figures adjusted for inflation (2013 dollars). Includes only amounts subject to state sales tax.
Taxable sales are approximately 20% of gross sales in Temple. Data for McGregor not available (N/A).

5. 5
Temple 2013 09-13
Retail Trade $568,224,152 9%
Accomm/Food $134,803,154 9%
Wholesale Trade $45,356,174 -3%
Manufacturing $35,348,163 33%
Admin/Supp/Waste $24,406,237 39%
Construction $19,276,173 14%
Real Estate $14,104,154 -13%
Source: Texas Comptroller. 2009-13 growth rate is adjusted for inflation (2013 dollars). Includes only amounts subject to state sales tax.
Transportation and Warehousing started from a very small base in 2009 (real growth rate was nearly 1,800%).
Temple 2013 09-13
Information $13,689,902 -1%
Prof/Sci/Tech Svcs $11,282,614 4%
Health Care $7,289,866 3%
Finance/Insurance $4,358,142 28%
Transp/Warehouse $4,259,387 **
Arts/Ent/Recreation $4,033,018 62%
Education $540,668 -17%
Taxable sales growth by industry in Temple

6. 6
Temple area population is expected to
grow by 6% between 2015 and 2020.
Forecast for age cohorts in Temple area:
Children (up to 19) 6%
Early Career (20-34) -1%
Mid Career (35-54) 4%
Late Career (55-69) 11%
Older Adults (70+) 15%
58% of estimated population growth in
2015-20 will be in age 55+ cohort.
Source: EMSI. Figures are for the region defined by the following ZIP codes: 76501, 76502, 76503, 76504, 76505, 76508.
Temple area population growth expected
to average 1.2% per year during 2015-20

7. 7
Baseline employment growth in Temple area
expected to average 1.3% per year 2015-20
Temple area employment is projected to
increase from 58,776 jobs to 62,617 jobs
in 2015-2020 (7%), slightly trailing Texas
(9%) but ahead of U.S. forecast (5%).
43% of job growth in Temple area during
2015-20 is expected to be in health care
and social assistance industries. (58% of
estimated population growth in 2015-20
will be in age 55+ cohort.)
Government is largest share of jobs in
Temple region (36%)—provides stable
foundation for labor market that adds
resiliency during down cycles.
Source: EMSI. Includes self-employment. Figures are for the region defined by the following ZIP codes: 76501, 76502, 76503, 76504, 76505, 76508.

8. 8
312
713
520 518
477 470
447
426
567
627
571
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Residential Building Permits Reported in Temple
Total # of Privately-Owned UnitsEstimated 94 new units permitted
YTD through February, roughly on
pace with 2014.
Average home price in 2014 in
Temple-Belton MLS area was
$151,300, up 4% from 2013.
Killeen-Fort Hood $140,900
Waco $149,900
Temple-Belton MLS area is most
affordable submarket in region
based on comparison of home
price to family income.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas A&M Real Estate Center, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Local Realtor Boards. Affordability is determined
by calculating the ratio of median family income to the income required to qualify for an 80 percent, fixed-rate mortgage to purchase the median-priced home.
Housing: Stable, Predictable, Affordable

9. 9
Killeen-Temple MSA Economic Summary
• $20.6 billion economy (2013), up
5.2% from previous year*
• 193,672 total employment (2014),
up 1.1% from previous year
• 2015 forecast: 1.9% job growth;
1.3% population growth
• Federal government accounts
directly for 47% of GDP
Source: EMSI, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Killeen-Temple MSA includes Bell, Coryell, and Lampasas counties.
* Estimated gross domestic product, not adjusted for inflation.
Population: 424,858 (July 2014)

10. 10
Expanding Scope of Targeted Industries
(Exporting)
Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School, 2012. Clusters listed here are considered “strong clusters.” A strong cluster is a
cluster that has high employment specialization in a region (ranking in the top 25% of all regions by specialization and also meeting minimum criteria for employment and establishment).
How can these
be integrated
into Temple’s
economic
development
brand?
Killeen-Temple MSA

11. 11
• Temple’s steady, predictable growth
is attractive business environment.
• Government & health care provide
stability but diversification efforts
should be prioritized & marketed.
• Cluster data suggests that Temple’s
economic development story may
need a few more chapters.
Summary Impressions

12. 12

13. 13
Workforce is now #1 site selection factor
Source: Area Development Online.

14. 14
• Complete a cluster analysis for
Grand Central Texas to reflect
assets of new geography.
• Evaluate need for workforce gap
analysis—is region equipped w/
education & training capacity to
meet future workforce needs?
• Investigate projected drop in
early career population.
Work Plan Considerations
• Maintain focus on
career readiness &
skill development.
• Diversification

15. 7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108
Austin, Texas 78757
@civicanalytics
http://civicanalytics.com