Nous avons eu le plaisir de vous convier le 14 janvier 2015 à la présentation du Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist de l'IEA (International Energy Agency) et superviseur de la publication annuelle de l'IEA, le World Energy Outlook (WEO).

1. © OECD/IEA 2014
Dr. Fatih BIROL
IEA Chief Economist
Brussels, 14 January 2015

2. © OECD/IEA 2014
Signs of stress in the global energy system
 Current calm in markets should not disguise difficult road ahead
 Turmoil in the Middle East raises doubts over future oil balance
 Resurgent debate over the security of gas supply to Europe
 Mixed signals in run-up to crucial climate summit in Paris in 2015
 Global CO2 emissions still rising, with most emitters on an upward path
 At $550 billion, fossil fuel subsidies over four-times those to renewables
 Increasing emphasis on energy efficiency starting to bring results
 Will change in global energy be led by policies, or driven by events?

3. © OECD/IEA 2014
Changing dynamics of global demand
Energy demand by region
As China slows, then India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa &
Latin America take over as the engines of global energy demand growth.
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Mtoe
OECD
Rest of world
China
China
Rest of world
OECD

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Rich in resources
In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-Saharan Africa;
Hydro
Wind
Oil
Oil
Oil
OilGas
Gas
Oil
Coal
Gas
Fossil fuels
Solar
the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydropower & solar

5. © OECD/IEA 2014
Power sector investment, regional cooperation & improved management of
resources & revenues are three pillars of a brighter sub-Saharan energy future
Less than 50%
More than 50%
Share of population with
access to electricity:
Rich in resources, but poor in supply
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
200
400
600
800
Million
Population without electricity

6. © OECD/IEA 2014
2013 2020 2030 20402015
Instability in the Middle East
a major risk to oil markets
Oil production growth
The short-term picture of a well-supplied market should not obscure future risks as
demand rises to 104 mb/d & reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East
+5
+10
+15
-5
2013 2020 2030 20402015
Net decline in output from other producers
Increase to 2040: 14 mb/d
mb/d
Increase to 2040:
14 mb/d
Middle East
Brazil
Canada
United States
& reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East
in United States, Canada, Brazil & the Middle East

7. © OECD/IEA 2014
Looking ahead on the oil price
 Against a backdrop of weaker demand, buoyant supply in North
America has brought prices down – but can it keep them down?
 Lower prices are starting to curtail upstream spending plans, with
implications for future supply
 Over time, squeezed cash flow would constrain the capacity of
North America & Brazil to act as engines of global supply growth
 Current oil price levels could provide some breathing space to
major oil importers, boosting demand & GDP
 It would also accelerate reliance on low-cost producers in the
Middle East, some of which face major investment challenges

8. © OECD/IEA 2014
India
World
Global coal demand leveling off
Global coal demand by key region
Global coal demand growth slows rapidly due to more stringent environmental
policies, underlining the importance of high-efficiency plant & CCS to coal’s future
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Mtce
1987: European coal demand peak2005: US coal demand peak
Chinese coal demand plateau
India: 2nd largest coal
consumer by 2020
Other
India
China
United States
Europe

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Retirements add to the investment
challenge in the power sector
Power capacity by source, 2013-2040
Despite limited demand growth, OECD countries account for
one-third of capacity additions – to compensate for retirements & to decarbonise
2013
Retirements Additions
2040
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000GW
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal

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Renewables supply half of the growth in global power demand; wind & solar PV
Renewables-based power generation
Renewables overtake coal to become
the leading source of power
Hydropower
Generation
wind & solar PV
subsidies decline from 2030 as costs fall & recent higher-cost commitments expire
Wind and solar PV
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
2013 2020 2040 2013 2030 2040
TWh
2030 2020
7 000

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Nuclear capacity grows by 60%, but no
nuclear renaissance in sight
Net capacity change in key regions, 2013-2040
By 2040, an expanded nuclear fleet has saved almost 4 years of current CO2 emissions
& for some countries has improved energy security & balances of energy trade
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
European Union
Japan
United States
Russia
India
China
GW

12. © OECD/IEA 2014
50
100
150
200
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
GW
2013
Nuclear power: public concerns
must be heard and addressed
Retirements of nuclear power capacity
1990-2040
Key public concerns include plant operation, decommissioning & waste management;
Spent nuclear fuel
European Union United States Japan Others
38% of today’s
capacity to retire
by 2040
1971-2012
350 thousand tonnes
1971-2040
705 thousand tonnes
1971-2040: 705 thousand tonnes
United States
European
Union
JapanChina
Canada
Russia Korea
India
Other
By 2040, almost 200 reactors are retired & the amount of spent fuel doubles& the amount of spent fuel doubles

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The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used up by 2040 – Paris must send a strong
signal for increasing low-carbon investment four times beyond current levels
The 2 °C goal – last chance in Paris?
World CO2 budget for 2 °C
~2300 Gt
25%
50%
75%
100%
Share of budget used
in Central Scenario
1900-2012
2012-2040
Average annual low-carbon
investment, 2014-2040
Central
Scenario
For 2°C
target
2013
CCS
Nuclear
Renewables
Efficiency
The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used up by 2040
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Trilliondollars(2013)

14. © OECD/IEA 2014
Navigating a stormy energy future
 Geopolitical & market uncertainties are set to propel energy
security high up the global energy agenda
 Volatility in the Middle East raises short-term doubts on
investment & spells trouble for future oil supply
 Without clear direction from Paris in 2015, the world is set for
warming well beyond the 2 °C goal
 Far-sighted government policies are essential to steer the global
energy system on to a safer course
 Reconciling competitiveness, the imperatives of energy security
and climate change will be critical for European policy-makers
in 2015