Economic Capsule - March 2023

Economic Capsule
March 2023
Research & Development Unit
314thIssue

CONTENTS
BANKING & FINANCE
 ComBank arrives in Anamaduwa
 Commercial Bank - LEAP
 Commercial Bank Trade Club
 ComBank adjudged ‘Best SME Bank’ in Sri Lanka by Global Finance
 ACCA reaffirms ComBank as Best among Sri Lankan banks for Sustainable Reporting
 ComBank crowned overall winner of LankaPayTechnnovationAwards
ECONOMY, BUSINESS & DEVELOPMENT
 Sri Lanka gets IMF approval
 Sri Lankan Economy contracts in 2022, Economic recovery to begin in 4Q-2023
 Apparel industry struggles persist amid decline in orders
 Local fuel prices expected to drop sharply as global oil prices plunge
 EDB and International Consultants UK pave way for Lankan firms to explore Africa
 News Snippets
GLOBAL UPDATE
 Collapsing of three US banks, one more in danger
 UBS plans to buyCredit Suisse in a bid to halt banking crisis
 Fed and other central banks try to head off crisis by keeping
dollars flowing
 China approves USD 1.3bn loan rollover for Pakistan
 Why are global oil prices experiencing a dip?
 News Snippets

ComBank arrives in Anamaduwa
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon opened the 270th branch in its
Sri Lanka network in Anamaduwa

Commercial Bank launches - LEAP
Commercial Bank launched its latest product “LEAP” on 22 March 2023.
LEAP is a digital platform designed for businesses, particularly for small
and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to reach cross border levels in the
global market together with business networking.
The platform offers a wide range of opportunities and facilities to grow
and to be competitive in the global landscape.
Features
Community - A platform for businesses to join a community of like-minded
entrepreneurs
Commerce - Offers a range of business tools such as an e-commerce store, a business
website builder, and a digital marketing tool kit
Knowledge - A platform for businesses to share their knowledge and expertise,
helping them to learn from each other

Commercial Bank – LEAP (Cont.)
Eligibility
Small & Medium Entrepreneurs (SME) or Corporates can join with Commercial Bank LEAP
platform.
Benefits
Business promotion Businesses can showcase their products and services on the platform
Networking
opportunities
Platform for businesses to connect with other businesses
Access to finance Connects businesses with investors and facilitates funding opportunities
Global presence A global presence of over 100 countries
Business services Offers a range of business services, such as financial, marketing and advertising,
logistics and shipping services,
Business intelligence Provides business intelligence tools that allow businesses to analyze their
performance

Commercial BankTrade Club
Commercial Bank Trade Club is the premier association of import & export
clientele of Commercial Bank. Trade Club was launched on 22 March 2023.
Features
Bank with us - Make the most of your available capital and find total solutions for trade finance.
Currency analysis - Analyze currency markets, manage exchange rates and minimize the risks.
Manage international shipments - Accessing maritime agencies, freight forwarders
and insurers.
Analyze markets - Collect market information and explore global opportunities.
Reach new counterparts - Identify new potential partners worldwide and find their products and
services.
Trade solutions- Expert advice and meeting alternate solutions for your shipments to International
markets

Commercial BankTrade Club (Cont.)
Eligibility
Platinum Exporters with annual turnover above USD 10 Mn.
Gold Exporters with annual turnover above USD 5 Mn.
Silver Exporters with annual turnover above USD 1 Mn.
Classic Exporters with annual turnover below USD 1 Mn.
Benefits
• Easy access to "Commercial Bank LEAP" through Trade Club.
• A team for dedicated, professional advisory & consultancy services.
• Export collection bills same day dispatch before 4.00pm.
• Financial advisory service.
• Registration for ComBank Digital (Online Banking) & Mobile Banking facilities free of charge.
• Registration of SRP free of charge
• Preferential rates on finances.
• Attractive exchange rates on import and export related transactions.
• Inward remittances details via Email.
• FCY issuance for business tours / seminars / trade fairs at discounted rates.
• Concessions for L/C advising charges if presented through us.

ComBank adjudged ‘Best SME Bank’ in Sri Lanka by
Global Finance
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon’s
impactful efforts to support the local
SME sector were recently acknowledged
on a global platform when the Bank won
the award for the ‘Best SME Bank’ in Sri
Lanka from the New York-head
quartered Global Finance magazine.
This award honours financial institutions that best supported their small and medium
enterprise clients during uniquely tumultuous times by preparing them to thrive in the
new, post-Covid landscape, the magazine said.

ACCA reaffirms ComBank as Best among Sri Lankan
banks for Sustainable Reporting
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon was
declared the best among all Sri Lankan
banks in sustainability reporting at the Sri
Lanka Sustainability Reporting Awards for
2022 presented by the Association of
Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) Sri
Lanka.
As the winner in the ‘Banking’ category Commercial Bank was recognised for being one of the most
transparent, accountable, and responsible entities in the country. The award was presented for the
Bank’s 2021 Annual Report titled ‘Beyond a shape, beyond a colour’ which among other aspects,
explores the Bank’s evolving operating context in which social and environmental concerns are brought
to the centre of its corporate agenda.

ComBank crowned overall winner of LankaPay
Technnovation Awards
The Commercial Bank of
Ceylon put on a dazzling
display of its prowess in
digital innovation recently,
winning seven awards
including the overall award
for banking institutions at
Sri Lanka's only payment
technology innovation
awards – the LankaPay
Technnovation Awards.
Commercial Banka dominated the ceremony with 4 Golds, 2 Silvers and a Merit
award
Gold - Overall excellence in Interbank Digital Payments for Banking Institutions,
Best Bank for Retail Payments,
Best Mobile Application for Retail Payments via Lanka QR
Most Innovative Bank of the Year
Silver - Financial Institution of the Year for Best Digital Payment Strategy
Best LankaPay Card Implementor of the Year
Merit - Bank of the Year for Financial Inclusivity

Economy, Business
& Development
News

Sri Lanka gets IMF approval
IMF, on 20 March 2023 approved USD 3bn under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) after months of negotiations.
The duration of the facility - 48 months.
The first tranche -USD 333mn approx
Key Conditions
1. An ambitious revenue-based fiscal consolidation, accompanied
by stronger social safety nets, fiscal institutional reforms, and
cost-recovery based energy pricing.
2. Restoration of public debt sustainability, including through a
debt restructuring
3. A multi-pronged strategy to restore price stability (low inflation)
and rebuild reserves under greater exchange rate flexibility
4. Policies to safeguard financial sector stability
5. Structural reforms to address corruption vulnerabilities and
enhance growth

Sri Lanka gets IMF approval (Cont.)
Key Conditions – Summary
Tax policy
• IMF commends the recent tax hikes made by
the government.
• Further, revamping the VAT before 2024 and
abolishing the *SVAT (Simplified VAT) system.
• Remove almost all product specific VAT
exemptions before 2024.
• Introduce a property tax , gift and inheritance
tax before 2025.
Strengthen the social safety nets (SSN)
• Setting a floor on SSN spending of LKR 187
billion in 2023 (0.6% of GDP)
• Beyond 2023, the authorities will maintain
SSN spending at least at 0.6-0.7% of GDP.
Public Finance Management functions (PFM)
• Enacting a new PFM law and submitting it to Parliament by
December 2023
• Developing a medium-term fiscal framework to provide
binding multi-year fiscal policy guidance
• Completing the rollout of the Integrated Treasury
Management Information System (ITMIS) by September
2023
• Strengthening the recently established Macro-Fiscal Unit in
the Ministry of Finance
• Improving public investment efficiency by strengthening
the processes for project appraisal and selection.
• Updating fiscal reporting to the GFSM 2014 standard.
(GFSM is a specialized macroeconomic statistical
framework introduced by IMF)
Fuel and Utility pricing mechanisms
• Commends the cost reflective fuel price mechanism and the
recent utility bill hikes.
*SVAT – Is a vat exemption given for B2B transactions

State Owned Enterprises (SOE)
• Cabinet approval of a comprehensive
strategy to restructure the balance sheets
of the CPC, CEB, the RDA, and SriLankan
Airlines by June 2023.
• Prompt publication of audited financial
statements for all 52 major SOEs.
• Prohibition of new FX borrowing by
nonfinancial SOEs with limited FX revenues.
Public Debt Management
• Reduce the level of public debt below 95% of GDP by 2032.
• Reduce average central government gross financing needs (GFNs) in 2027–32
below 13% of GDP.
• Keep FX debt service of the central government below 4.5% of GDP in any year
during 2027-32.
• Ensure that the fiscal and external financing gaps are closed.
• Government should announce on the coverage and parameters of the external
and domestic debt operations before end-April 2023.
Type of Debt Treatment
Foreign law foreign currency (FLFC)
(Excluding debt owed to international financial institutions (IFIs), central bank currency
swaps, emergency credit lines extended in 2022, and any new disbursements made after
the moratorium announcement)
Restructure through extension of grace period and
maturity, interest rate reduction, nominal haircut, or
a combination of these.
Local law foreign currency (LLFC)
(Held in Sri Lanka Development Bonds (largely held by banks) and FX bank loans of the
government and SOE)
Convert LLFC debt to local currency debt instruments
Local law local currency (LLLC) Any LLLC restructuring should be done while
preserving financial stability
Debt Restructuring

Price stability
• Monetary policy will be guided by an
overriding objective of reducing the
headline CCPI inflation (y/y) back to the
CBSL’s target band of 4-6% by early 2025.
Under the program, this will be monitored
through a monetary policy consultation
clause (MPCC; featuring inner/outer bands
of ±1.5/3 percentage points for June 2023
and thereafter)
• Ceiling imposed on CBSL’s net credit to the
government will limit monetary financing.
Exchange Rate
• IMF commends CBSL adopting a market driven exchange rate.
• Foreign exchange interventions of CBSL should be
(i) limited to truly disorderly market conditions
(ii) transparently disclosed to guide market expectations
(iii) capped at an amount consistent with meeting the Net Official
International Reserves targets.
• Predicts on the CBSL’s outright FX purchases on a net basis to be around
USD 1.4bn in 2023.
CBSL autonomy
• Central bank autonomy will be strengthened
by enacting the new Central Bank Act (CBA)
with critical improvements over the current
Monetary Law Act.
• The new CBA was approved by the Cabinet
in December 2022, with Parliamentary
approval expected by April 2023
Financial Stability
• Recapitalizing the banking system – Diagnostic studies for nine major banks
• As the first step, an Asset Quality Review for the two largest state-owned banks
and the three largest private banks will be completed by April 2023.
• By July 2023, the CBSL should develop a roadmap for financial sector restructuring
and recapitalization to address capital and FX liquidity shortfalls.
• By October 2023, the government should determine conditions for any potential
use of public funds to support the roadmap and to close capital shortfalls at viable
banks
• A new Banking Act with Cabinet approval expected by June, 2023 and
Parliamentary approval expected by December 2023.

Reducing Corruption Vulnerabilities
• IMF initiated a Governance diagnostic study in Jan 2023.
• Upgrade anti corruption legislation.
• Improve fiscal transparency .
• Strengthening AML/CFT regime.
Growth
• To liberalize Sri Lanka’s highly protective trade regime, the authorities should develop a concrete medium-term
plan to rationalize para-tariff.
• Targeted reforms are needed to boost female Labor Force Participation and reduce youth unemployment.
• Reducing the government’s and SOEs’ role in the economy
• Structural reforms in the electricity sector should be urgently pursued
• Strengthen efforts to adapt to climate change, including through contingency budgeting and insurance
schemes for natural disasters.
Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/03/20/Sri-Lanka-Request-for-an-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-Press-531191

Selected targets set by IMF on Economic indicators (Assuming debt restructuring will
happen in 2023)
2021 2022
Preliminary
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Real GDP growth 3.3 *-8.7 -3.0 1.5 2.6 3.0
Inflation –CCPI (average) 6.0 **46.4 28.5 8.7 5.6 5.2
Inflation – CCPI (end year) 12.1 57.2 15.2 6.7 5.6 5.2
Revenue and grants (% of GDP) 8.3 8.5 11.0 13.3 14.9 15.0
Expenditure (% of GDP) 19.9 18.9 19.0 19.7 19.9 19.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 114.3 128.1 111.2 108.5 107.8 106.8
Current account balance net of interest (% of GDP) -2.2 -0.5 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.8
Gross Official Reserves (USD Bn) 3.1 1.9 4.4 6.1 8.5 10.9
External Debt (USD Bn) 57.3 58.7 56.2 58.3 61.1 63.9
*For 2022 – Real GPD growth was -7.8% as per latest data
**For 2022 – Average CCPI was 45.9%
Read More : https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/03/20/Sri-Lanka-Request-for-an-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-Press-531191

Sri Lankan Economy contracts in 2022,
Economic recovery to begin in 4Q-2023
GDP for year 2022 contracted by 7.8% compared to 2021. For the fourth quarter
of 2022, the contraction of the economy was 12.4%
Construction activities, which accounts for an 8.0% share of overall GDP,
recorded a negative growth rate of 20.9% during the year 2022.
Authorities are expecting a positive growth from 4Q-2023 onwards. In 2024,
they expect the economy to move in to positive territory (full year)
Source: Dep. of Census and Statistics

Apparel industry struggles persist amid decline in orders
As Sri Lanka’s major apparel markets continue
to grapple with challenges, the local apparel
industry is experiencing a decline in orders to
the tune of 20% compared with last year, an
industry association said.
In an effort to maintain global market share, they reiterated the need to explore new markets such as Canada,
Australia, Japan and Korea.
While the government needs to step up efforts in concluding the free trade agreements (FTAs) with India and China,
steps must be taken to enter into FTAs with the identified four new potential markets.
The Joint Apparel Association Forum (JAAF) asserted that
the dip in demand from the key apparel markets, such as
the US, EU and UK, is unlikely to improve in the next few
months, which means the local apparel sector is set to face
prolonged issues, amid the ongoing economic crisis.

Local fuel prices expected to drop sharply as global oil
prices plunge
Sri Lanka could receive a welcome surprise as global oil price hit a 15-month low last
week on concerns about a banking sector crisis in the United States that may spill over
into other parts of the world.
Sri Lanka has been operating a cost-reflective energy pricing formula since June last
year.
The current plummeting of oil prices could result in a notable decline in petrol and
diesel prices at the next review of fuel prices.
Why are global oil prices experiencing a dip? - Click here

EDB and International Consultants UK pave way for
Lankan firms to explore Africa
As most local companies and corporations in Sri
Lanka are currently facing challenges in accessing
capital, International Consultants (a consultancy firm
in Sri Lanka), which is working in partnership with the
EDB, said it would assist local entities to tap into
financing in Africa.
In a first step towards this endeavor, International Consultants –, in collaboration with the EDB, Sri Lanka High
Commission in South Africa and Investment and Export Promotion Agency of Mozambique, has planned a webinar
titled ‘Gateway to Africa’, targeting the local companies. The webinar that will be held on March 28 will focus on
the key sectors from Sri Lanka, such as the power and energy, civil construction, engineering and
telecommunication sectors.

News Snippets
Sri Lanka Bondholders eye GDP-Linked
Debt Restructuring - Bloomberg
‘Sri Lanka’s private creditors are considering a
proposal to swap defaulted bonds with new
securities that would have cash flow linked to
the nation’s future growth, according to people
familiar with the matter.
Under the plan, the security being mulled by Sri
Lanka’s bondholders will pay less if growth falls
to levels projected by the International
Monetary Fund, they said.
IMF Board approval will allow SL to access financing up to USD 7bn- President
President Ranil Wickremesinghe said the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Board approval would allow Sri Lanka to access foreign financing up to USD 7bn
from the IMF (beyond this program), international financial institutions and
other multilateral organizations.
SL receives first TSP fertilizer shipment since 2021
With funding from the United States Agency for International Development
(USAID), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in Sri
Lanka delivered 36 000 tonnes of Triple Super Phosphate (TSP) fertilizer to the
Ministry of Agriculture on 19 March for immediate distribution to all paddy farmers
across the country.
Purchasing Managers’ Index – February 2023
Purchasing Managers’ Indices for both Manufacturing and Services activities contracted in February 2023.
Manufacturing PMI recorded an index value of 42.3 in February, indicating a continued setback in manufacturing activities on a
month-on-month basis.
Services sector PMI dropped to an index value of 48.7 in February 2023 indicating a deterioration across the services sector
Read more - https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/press/pr/press_20230314_sl_pmi_2023_february_e.pdf

Global
Update

Collapsing of three US banks, one more in danger
Three US banks, collapsed during a space of four days sending shockwaves across the global markets.
One more bank is experiencing a similar customer flight.
March 08 – Silvergate Capital Corp.
• Silvergate Capital Corp. was the first US bank to collapse, done in by its exposure to the crypto
industry's meltdown.
• With authorization from the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. had tried to step in,
discussing with management ways to avoid a shutdown.
• But the bank couldn't recover amid scrutiny from regulators and a criminal investigation by the Justice
Department's fraud unit into dealings with Sam Bankman-Fried's fallen crypto giants FTX and Alameda
Research.
• Though no wrongdoing was asserted, Silvergate's woes deepened as the bank sold off assets at a loss
to cover withdrawals by its spooked customers. It announced plans on March 8 to wind down its
operations and liquidate its bank.

Collapsing of three US banks, one more in danger (Cont.)
March 10 – Silicon Valley Bank.
• With Silvergate's obituary mostly written, investors and depositors in SVB Financial Group's
Silicon Valley Bank were already on edge when the company on March 8 announced a plan to sell
USD 2.25bn of shares - as well as significant losses on its investment portfolio.
• Shares of the company sank 60% the next day on the news, and it collapsed into FDIC receivership the
following day.
• HSBC’s UK arm bought the British assets of SVB for £1.
• However, America’s regulators have struggled to find a buyer for the rest of the bank.

March 12 – Signature Bank
• Signature Bank became the third-largest bank failure in US history following a surge in customer
withdrawals that totaled about 20% of the company's deposits.
• Silvergate's implosion four days earlier had left clients skittish about keeping their deposits at
Signature Bank, despite its much smaller exposure to crypto.
• Federal regulators said they lost faith in the company's leadership, and they swept the bank into
receivership.
• Signature Bank's deposits and some of its loans were taken over by New York Community Bancorp's
Flagstar Bank late Sunday (19).
• The acquirer agreed to purchase USD 38bn of assets, including USD 25bn in cash and about USD 13bn
in loans, from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp(FDIC). It also assumed liabilities of about USD 36bn,
including USD 34bn in deposits.
• Signature's branches will now operate as Flagstar locations.

First Republic Bank
First Republic bank is experiencing a similar customer flight which the three collapsed banks experienced .
However, few investors including JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer are planning to hatch a plan to aid
the bank by way of a capital infusion.
Research analysts warn that more than 186 banks approx in the US are at risk of failure
similar to the collapsed banks.
Sources: CNN, FDIC, Bloomberg

UBS plans to buy Credit Suisse in a bid to halt banking
crisis
Switzerland’s biggest bank, UBS, has agreed to buy
its ailing rival Credit Suisse (second biggest bank in
Switzerland) in an emergency rescue deal aimed at
stemming financial market panic unleashed by the
failure of two American banks earlier this month.
UBS will pay 3bn Swiss francs (USD 3.25bn) for Credit
Suisse, about 60% less than the bank was worth
when markets closed on Friday (18).
A date for the deal is not yet confirmed.
Credit Suisse (CS) had been losing the trust of investors and customers for years. In 2022, it recorded its
worst loss since the global financial crisis.
But confidence collapsed last week after it acknowledged “material weakness” in its bookkeeping and as
the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank spread fear about weaker institutions at a time when
soaring interest rates have undermined the value of some financial assets.
Read More : https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/19/business/credit-suisseubsrescue/index.html#:~:text=UBS%20is%20paying%203%20billion,1.86%20Swiss%20francs%20on%20Friday.

Fed and other central banks try to head off crisis by
keeping dollars flowing
The US Federal Reserve and several other major central banks announced a
coordinated effort on 19th March to boost the flow of US dollars through the global
financial system with the aim of keeping credit flowing to households and businesses.
Source: Federal Reserve
The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central
Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank have announced a coordinated
action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing US dollar liquidity swap
line arrangements, the central banks said in a joint statement.
Swap lines are agreements between two central banks to exchange currencies. They allow a central bank to obtain foreign currency
from the central bank that issues it, and distribute it to commercial banks in their country.
The swap line between US Federal Reserve and the ECB, for example, enables the ECB to receive US dollars in exchange for an
equivalent amount of euros. The ECB can then distribute those dollars to commercial banks in the 20 countries that use the euro
and minimize the difficulty for EU banks to obtain dollars.

China approves USD 1.3bn loan rollover for Pakistan
Source: Reuters
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd on
3rd March, 2023 approved a rollover of a USD
1.3bn loan for cash-strapped Pakistan, which
will help shore up its depleting foreign exchange
reserves, Pakistani Finance Minister said.
The facility will be disbursed in three
installments. The first one of USD 500mn has
been received by Pakistan’s central bank.
Pakistan has already received a USD 700mn loan from China to help boost its forex reserves.
He said Pakistan will need USD 5bn external financing to close its financing gap this fiscal year, which
ends in June, 2023.

Why are global oil prices experiencing a dip?
Source: Bloomberg - Commodities
Crude oil prices neared USD 70 per
barrel on 20th March, losing nearly USD
16 per barrel in a fortnight, amid a
deepening banking crisis in the West.
Crude oil has been on a declining
trajectory since last June when it
reached USD 124 per barrel. For the last
four months, prices have stayed below
USD 90.
But a rising concern about the health of
the global economy in the wake of the
collapse of a few banks in the US and
Europe in recent weeks has triggered a
sharp fall in oil prices.

News Snippets
US Fed and EU rate hike
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by another quarter of a percentage point and signaled that more rate
increases could come in its fight against inflation, despite higher rates triggering a series of bank failures. In a statement, the
Federal Open Market Committee said America’s banking system was sound and resilient. The committee voted to raise the federal
funds rate to a target range of 4.75% to 5%, its highest since 2007.
The decision followed the European Central Bank’s decision to lift rates on March 16th.
Euro zone inflation
The euro zone’s annual inflation rate remained virtually unchanged in
February at 8.5%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and
energy prices, increased to 5.6%. Inflation also rose in the currency bloc’s
two biggest economies, Germany and France.
Soaring inflation in Argentina
Argentina’s official annual inflation rate soared to
102.5% in February, the highest it has been since
1991 and despite price controls on more than
1,700 goods.
Chinese financial sector supervision reforms
China’s government announced sweeping changes to its supervision of the financial sector, and will create a new body to
replace the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. The oversight of financial companies (except for securities)
will fall under the control of a new department that will take over some of the functions of the central bank and report to the
State Council. The aim is to consolidate the operations of numerous regulators.

The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
The information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain
accuracy/completeness of the information, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the
information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise, suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose.
< Research & Development Unit >

Economic Capsule - March 2023

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