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Economic Capsule - March 2023

Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
28 de Mar de 2023
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Economic Capsule - March 2023

  1. Economic Capsule March 2023 Research & Development Unit 314thIssue
  2. CONTENTS BANKING & FINANCE  ComBank arrives in Anamaduwa  Commercial Bank - LEAP  Commercial Bank Trade Club  ComBank adjudged ‘Best SME Bank’ in Sri Lanka by Global Finance  ACCA reaffirms ComBank as Best among Sri Lankan banks for Sustainable Reporting  ComBank crowned overall winner of LankaPayTechnnovationAwards ECONOMY, BUSINESS & DEVELOPMENT  Sri Lanka gets IMF approval  Sri Lankan Economy contracts in 2022, Economic recovery to begin in 4Q-2023  Apparel industry struggles persist amid decline in orders  Local fuel prices expected to drop sharply as global oil prices plunge  EDB and International Consultants UK pave way for Lankan firms to explore Africa  News Snippets GLOBAL UPDATE  Collapsing of three US banks, one more in danger  UBS plans to buyCredit Suisse in a bid to halt banking crisis  Fed and other central banks try to head off crisis by keeping dollars flowing  China approves USD 1.3bn loan rollover for Pakistan  Why are global oil prices experiencing a dip?  News Snippets Research & Development Unit
  3. Banking & Finance
  4. Research & Development Unit ComBank arrives in Anamaduwa The Commercial Bank of Ceylon opened the 270th branch in its Sri Lanka network in Anamaduwa
  5. Research & Development Unit Commercial Bank launches - LEAP Commercial Bank launched its latest product “LEAP” on 22 March 2023. LEAP is a digital platform designed for businesses, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to reach cross border levels in the global market together with business networking. The platform offers a wide range of opportunities and facilities to grow and to be competitive in the global landscape. Features Community - A platform for businesses to join a community of like-minded entrepreneurs Commerce - Offers a range of business tools such as an e-commerce store, a business website builder, and a digital marketing tool kit Knowledge - A platform for businesses to share their knowledge and expertise, helping them to learn from each other
  6. Research & Development Unit Commercial Bank – LEAP (Cont.) Eligibility Small & Medium Entrepreneurs (SME) or Corporates can join with Commercial Bank LEAP platform. Benefits Business promotion Businesses can showcase their products and services on the platform Networking opportunities Platform for businesses to connect with other businesses Access to finance Connects businesses with investors and facilitates funding opportunities Global presence A global presence of over 100 countries Business services Offers a range of business services, such as financial, marketing and advertising, logistics and shipping services, Business intelligence Provides business intelligence tools that allow businesses to analyze their performance
  7. Research & Development Unit Commercial BankTrade Club Commercial Bank Trade Club is the premier association of import & export clientele of Commercial Bank. Trade Club was launched on 22 March 2023. Features Bank with us - Make the most of your available capital and find total solutions for trade finance. Currency analysis - Analyze currency markets, manage exchange rates and minimize the risks. Manage international shipments - Accessing maritime agencies, freight forwarders and insurers. Analyze markets - Collect market information and explore global opportunities. Reach new counterparts - Identify new potential partners worldwide and find their products and services. Trade solutions- Expert advice and meeting alternate solutions for your shipments to International markets
  8. Research & Development Unit Commercial BankTrade Club (Cont.) Eligibility Platinum Exporters with annual turnover above USD 10 Mn. Gold Exporters with annual turnover above USD 5 Mn. Silver Exporters with annual turnover above USD 1 Mn. Classic Exporters with annual turnover below USD 1 Mn. Benefits • Easy access to "Commercial Bank LEAP" through Trade Club. • A team for dedicated, professional advisory & consultancy services. • Export collection bills same day dispatch before 4.00pm. • Financial advisory service. • Registration for ComBank Digital (Online Banking) & Mobile Banking facilities free of charge. • Registration of SRP free of charge • Preferential rates on finances. • Attractive exchange rates on import and export related transactions. • Inward remittances details via Email. • FCY issuance for business tours / seminars / trade fairs at discounted rates. • Concessions for L/C advising charges if presented through us.
  9. Research & Development Unit ComBank adjudged ‘Best SME Bank’ in Sri Lanka by Global Finance The Commercial Bank of Ceylon’s impactful efforts to support the local SME sector were recently acknowledged on a global platform when the Bank won the award for the ‘Best SME Bank’ in Sri Lanka from the New York-head quartered Global Finance magazine. This award honours financial institutions that best supported their small and medium enterprise clients during uniquely tumultuous times by preparing them to thrive in the new, post-Covid landscape, the magazine said.
  10. Research & Development Unit ACCA reaffirms ComBank as Best among Sri Lankan banks for Sustainable Reporting The Commercial Bank of Ceylon was declared the best among all Sri Lankan banks in sustainability reporting at the Sri Lanka Sustainability Reporting Awards for 2022 presented by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) Sri Lanka. As the winner in the ‘Banking’ category Commercial Bank was recognised for being one of the most transparent, accountable, and responsible entities in the country. The award was presented for the Bank’s 2021 Annual Report titled ‘Beyond a shape, beyond a colour’ which among other aspects, explores the Bank’s evolving operating context in which social and environmental concerns are brought to the centre of its corporate agenda.
  11. Research & Development Unit ComBank crowned overall winner of LankaPay Technnovation Awards The Commercial Bank of Ceylon put on a dazzling display of its prowess in digital innovation recently, winning seven awards including the overall award for banking institutions at Sri Lanka's only payment technology innovation awards – the LankaPay Technnovation Awards. Commercial Banka dominated the ceremony with 4 Golds, 2 Silvers and a Merit award Gold - Overall excellence in Interbank Digital Payments for Banking Institutions, Best Bank for Retail Payments, Best Mobile Application for Retail Payments via Lanka QR Most Innovative Bank of the Year Silver - Financial Institution of the Year for Best Digital Payment Strategy Best LankaPay Card Implementor of the Year Merit - Bank of the Year for Financial Inclusivity
  12. Economy, Business & Development News Research & Development Unit
  13. Sri Lanka gets IMF approval Research & Development Unit IMF, on 20 March 2023 approved USD 3bn under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) after months of negotiations. The duration of the facility - 48 months. The first tranche -USD 333mn approx Key Conditions 1. An ambitious revenue-based fiscal consolidation, accompanied by stronger social safety nets, fiscal institutional reforms, and cost-recovery based energy pricing. 2. Restoration of public debt sustainability, including through a debt restructuring 3. A multi-pronged strategy to restore price stability (low inflation) and rebuild reserves under greater exchange rate flexibility 4. Policies to safeguard financial sector stability 5. Structural reforms to address corruption vulnerabilities and enhance growth
  14. Sri Lanka gets IMF approval (Cont.) Research & Development Unit Key Conditions – Summary Tax policy • IMF commends the recent tax hikes made by the government. • Further, revamping the VAT before 2024 and abolishing the *SVAT (Simplified VAT) system. • Remove almost all product specific VAT exemptions before 2024. • Introduce a property tax , gift and inheritance tax before 2025. Strengthen the social safety nets (SSN) • Setting a floor on SSN spending of LKR 187 billion in 2023 (0.6% of GDP) • Beyond 2023, the authorities will maintain SSN spending at least at 0.6-0.7% of GDP. Public Finance Management functions (PFM) • Enacting a new PFM law and submitting it to Parliament by December 2023 • Developing a medium-term fiscal framework to provide binding multi-year fiscal policy guidance • Completing the rollout of the Integrated Treasury Management Information System (ITMIS) by September 2023 • Strengthening the recently established Macro-Fiscal Unit in the Ministry of Finance • Improving public investment efficiency by strengthening the processes for project appraisal and selection. • Updating fiscal reporting to the GFSM 2014 standard. (GFSM is a specialized macroeconomic statistical framework introduced by IMF) Fuel and Utility pricing mechanisms • Commends the cost reflective fuel price mechanism and the recent utility bill hikes. *SVAT – Is a vat exemption given for B2B transactions
  15. Sri Lanka gets IMF approval (Cont.) Research & Development Unit State Owned Enterprises (SOE) • Cabinet approval of a comprehensive strategy to restructure the balance sheets of the CPC, CEB, the RDA, and SriLankan Airlines by June 2023. • Prompt publication of audited financial statements for all 52 major SOEs. • Prohibition of new FX borrowing by nonfinancial SOEs with limited FX revenues. Public Debt Management • Reduce the level of public debt below 95% of GDP by 2032. • Reduce average central government gross financing needs (GFNs) in 2027–32 below 13% of GDP. • Keep FX debt service of the central government below 4.5% of GDP in any year during 2027-32. • Ensure that the fiscal and external financing gaps are closed. • Government should announce on the coverage and parameters of the external and domestic debt operations before end-April 2023. Type of Debt Treatment Foreign law foreign currency (FLFC) (Excluding debt owed to international financial institutions (IFIs), central bank currency swaps, emergency credit lines extended in 2022, and any new disbursements made after the moratorium announcement) Restructure through extension of grace period and maturity, interest rate reduction, nominal haircut, or a combination of these. Local law foreign currency (LLFC) (Held in Sri Lanka Development Bonds (largely held by banks) and FX bank loans of the government and SOE) Convert LLFC debt to local currency debt instruments Local law local currency (LLLC) Any LLLC restructuring should be done while preserving financial stability Debt Restructuring Key Conditions – Summary
  16. Sri Lanka gets IMF approval (Cont.) Research & Development Unit Price stability • Monetary policy will be guided by an overriding objective of reducing the headline CCPI inflation (y/y) back to the CBSL’s target band of 4-6% by early 2025. Under the program, this will be monitored through a monetary policy consultation clause (MPCC; featuring inner/outer bands of ±1.5/3 percentage points for June 2023 and thereafter) • Ceiling imposed on CBSL’s net credit to the government will limit monetary financing. Exchange Rate • IMF commends CBSL adopting a market driven exchange rate. • Foreign exchange interventions of CBSL should be (i) limited to truly disorderly market conditions (ii) transparently disclosed to guide market expectations (iii) capped at an amount consistent with meeting the Net Official International Reserves targets. • Predicts on the CBSL’s outright FX purchases on a net basis to be around USD 1.4bn in 2023. CBSL autonomy • Central bank autonomy will be strengthened by enacting the new Central Bank Act (CBA) with critical improvements over the current Monetary Law Act. • The new CBA was approved by the Cabinet in December 2022, with Parliamentary approval expected by April 2023 Financial Stability • Recapitalizing the banking system – Diagnostic studies for nine major banks • As the first step, an Asset Quality Review for the two largest state-owned banks and the three largest private banks will be completed by April 2023. • By July 2023, the CBSL should develop a roadmap for financial sector restructuring and recapitalization to address capital and FX liquidity shortfalls. • By October 2023, the government should determine conditions for any potential use of public funds to support the roadmap and to close capital shortfalls at viable banks • A new Banking Act with Cabinet approval expected by June, 2023 and Parliamentary approval expected by December 2023. Key Conditions – Summary
  17. Sri Lanka gets IMF approval (Cont.) Research & Development Unit Reducing Corruption Vulnerabilities • IMF initiated a Governance diagnostic study in Jan 2023. • Upgrade anti corruption legislation. • Improve fiscal transparency . • Strengthening AML/CFT regime. Key Conditions – Summary Growth • To liberalize Sri Lanka’s highly protective trade regime, the authorities should develop a concrete medium-term plan to rationalize para-tariff. • Targeted reforms are needed to boost female Labor Force Participation and reduce youth unemployment. • Reducing the government’s and SOEs’ role in the economy • Structural reforms in the electricity sector should be urgently pursued • Strengthen efforts to adapt to climate change, including through contingency budgeting and insurance schemes for natural disasters. Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/03/20/Sri-Lanka-Request-for-an-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-Press-531191
  18. Research & Development Unit Sri Lanka gets IMF approval (Cont.) Selected targets set by IMF on Economic indicators (Assuming debt restructuring will happen in 2023) 2021 2022 Preliminary 2023 Projected 2024 Projected 2025 Projected 2026 Projected Real GDP growth 3.3 *-8.7 -3.0 1.5 2.6 3.0 Inflation –CCPI (average) 6.0 **46.4 28.5 8.7 5.6 5.2 Inflation – CCPI (end year) 12.1 57.2 15.2 6.7 5.6 5.2 Revenue and grants (% of GDP) 8.3 8.5 11.0 13.3 14.9 15.0 Expenditure (% of GDP) 19.9 18.9 19.0 19.7 19.9 19.9 Public Debt (% of GDP) 114.3 128.1 111.2 108.5 107.8 106.8 Current account balance net of interest (% of GDP) -2.2 -0.5 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.8 Gross Official Reserves (USD Bn) 3.1 1.9 4.4 6.1 8.5 10.9 External Debt (USD Bn) 57.3 58.7 56.2 58.3 61.1 63.9 *For 2022 – Real GPD growth was -7.8% as per latest data **For 2022 – Average CCPI was 45.9% Read More : https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/03/20/Sri-Lanka-Request-for-an-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-Press-531191
  19. Research & Development Unit Sri Lankan Economy contracts in 2022, Economic recovery to begin in 4Q-2023 GDP for year 2022 contracted by 7.8% compared to 2021. For the fourth quarter of 2022, the contraction of the economy was 12.4% Construction activities, which accounts for an 8.0% share of overall GDP, recorded a negative growth rate of 20.9% during the year 2022. Authorities are expecting a positive growth from 4Q-2023 onwards. In 2024, they expect the economy to move in to positive territory (full year) Source: Dep. of Census and Statistics
  20. Apparel industry struggles persist amid decline in orders Research & Development Unit As Sri Lanka’s major apparel markets continue to grapple with challenges, the local apparel industry is experiencing a decline in orders to the tune of 20% compared with last year, an industry association said. In an effort to maintain global market share, they reiterated the need to explore new markets such as Canada, Australia, Japan and Korea. While the government needs to step up efforts in concluding the free trade agreements (FTAs) with India and China, steps must be taken to enter into FTAs with the identified four new potential markets. The Joint Apparel Association Forum (JAAF) asserted that the dip in demand from the key apparel markets, such as the US, EU and UK, is unlikely to improve in the next few months, which means the local apparel sector is set to face prolonged issues, amid the ongoing economic crisis.
  21. Research & Development Unit Local fuel prices expected to drop sharply as global oil prices plunge Sri Lanka could receive a welcome surprise as global oil price hit a 15-month low last week on concerns about a banking sector crisis in the United States that may spill over into other parts of the world. Sri Lanka has been operating a cost-reflective energy pricing formula since June last year. The current plummeting of oil prices could result in a notable decline in petrol and diesel prices at the next review of fuel prices. Why are global oil prices experiencing a dip? - Click here
  22. Research & Development Unit EDB and International Consultants UK pave way for Lankan firms to explore Africa As most local companies and corporations in Sri Lanka are currently facing challenges in accessing capital, International Consultants (a consultancy firm in Sri Lanka), which is working in partnership with the EDB, said it would assist local entities to tap into financing in Africa. In a first step towards this endeavor, International Consultants –, in collaboration with the EDB, Sri Lanka High Commission in South Africa and Investment and Export Promotion Agency of Mozambique, has planned a webinar titled ‘Gateway to Africa’, targeting the local companies. The webinar that will be held on March 28 will focus on the key sectors from Sri Lanka, such as the power and energy, civil construction, engineering and telecommunication sectors.
  23. News Snippets Research & Development Unit Sri Lanka Bondholders eye GDP-Linked Debt Restructuring - Bloomberg ‘Sri Lanka’s private creditors are considering a proposal to swap defaulted bonds with new securities that would have cash flow linked to the nation’s future growth, according to people familiar with the matter. Under the plan, the security being mulled by Sri Lanka’s bondholders will pay less if growth falls to levels projected by the International Monetary Fund, they said. IMF Board approval will allow SL to access financing up to USD 7bn- President President Ranil Wickremesinghe said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Board approval would allow Sri Lanka to access foreign financing up to USD 7bn from the IMF (beyond this program), international financial institutions and other multilateral organizations. SL receives first TSP fertilizer shipment since 2021 With funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in Sri Lanka delivered 36 000 tonnes of Triple Super Phosphate (TSP) fertilizer to the Ministry of Agriculture on 19 March for immediate distribution to all paddy farmers across the country. Purchasing Managers’ Index – February 2023 Purchasing Managers’ Indices for both Manufacturing and Services activities contracted in February 2023. Manufacturing PMI recorded an index value of 42.3 in February, indicating a continued setback in manufacturing activities on a month-on-month basis. Services sector PMI dropped to an index value of 48.7 in February 2023 indicating a deterioration across the services sector Read more - https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/press/pr/press_20230314_sl_pmi_2023_february_e.pdf
  24. Global Update Research & Development Unit
  25. Collapsing of three US banks, one more in danger Three US banks, collapsed during a space of four days sending shockwaves across the global markets. One more bank is experiencing a similar customer flight. Research & Development Unit March 08 – Silvergate Capital Corp. • Silvergate Capital Corp. was the first US bank to collapse, done in by its exposure to the crypto industry's meltdown. • With authorization from the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. had tried to step in, discussing with management ways to avoid a shutdown. • But the bank couldn't recover amid scrutiny from regulators and a criminal investigation by the Justice Department's fraud unit into dealings with Sam Bankman-Fried's fallen crypto giants FTX and Alameda Research. • Though no wrongdoing was asserted, Silvergate's woes deepened as the bank sold off assets at a loss to cover withdrawals by its spooked customers. It announced plans on March 8 to wind down its operations and liquidate its bank.
  26. Collapsing of three US banks, one more in danger (Cont.) Research & Development Unit March 10 – Silicon Valley Bank. • With Silvergate's obituary mostly written, investors and depositors in SVB Financial Group's Silicon Valley Bank were already on edge when the company on March 8 announced a plan to sell USD 2.25bn of shares - as well as significant losses on its investment portfolio. • Shares of the company sank 60% the next day on the news, and it collapsed into FDIC receivership the following day. • HSBC’s UK arm bought the British assets of SVB for £1. • However, America’s regulators have struggled to find a buyer for the rest of the bank.
  27. Collapsing of three US banks, one more in danger (Cont.) Research & Development Unit March 12 – Signature Bank • Signature Bank became the third-largest bank failure in US history following a surge in customer withdrawals that totaled about 20% of the company's deposits. • Silvergate's implosion four days earlier had left clients skittish about keeping their deposits at Signature Bank, despite its much smaller exposure to crypto. • Federal regulators said they lost faith in the company's leadership, and they swept the bank into receivership. • Signature Bank's deposits and some of its loans were taken over by New York Community Bancorp's Flagstar Bank late Sunday (19). • The acquirer agreed to purchase USD 38bn of assets, including USD 25bn in cash and about USD 13bn in loans, from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp(FDIC). It also assumed liabilities of about USD 36bn, including USD 34bn in deposits. • Signature's branches will now operate as Flagstar locations.
  28. Collapsing of three US banks, one more in danger (Cont.) Research & Development Unit First Republic Bank First Republic bank is experiencing a similar customer flight which the three collapsed banks experienced . However, few investors including JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer are planning to hatch a plan to aid the bank by way of a capital infusion. Research analysts warn that more than 186 banks approx in the US are at risk of failure similar to the collapsed banks. Sources: CNN, FDIC, Bloomberg
  29. UBS plans to buy Credit Suisse in a bid to halt banking crisis Research & Development Unit Switzerland’s biggest bank, UBS, has agreed to buy its ailing rival Credit Suisse (second biggest bank in Switzerland) in an emergency rescue deal aimed at stemming financial market panic unleashed by the failure of two American banks earlier this month. UBS will pay 3bn Swiss francs (USD 3.25bn) for Credit Suisse, about 60% less than the bank was worth when markets closed on Friday (18). A date for the deal is not yet confirmed. Credit Suisse (CS) had been losing the trust of investors and customers for years. In 2022, it recorded its worst loss since the global financial crisis. But confidence collapsed last week after it acknowledged “material weakness” in its bookkeeping and as the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank spread fear about weaker institutions at a time when soaring interest rates have undermined the value of some financial assets. Read More : https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/19/business/credit-suisseubsrescue/index.html#:~:text=UBS%20is%20paying%203%20billion,1.86%20Swiss%20francs%20on%20Friday.
  30. Fed and other central banks try to head off crisis by keeping dollars flowing The US Federal Reserve and several other major central banks announced a coordinated effort on 19th March to boost the flow of US dollars through the global financial system with the aim of keeping credit flowing to households and businesses. Research & Development Unit Source: Federal Reserve The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank have announced a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing US dollar liquidity swap line arrangements, the central banks said in a joint statement. Swap lines are agreements between two central banks to exchange currencies. They allow a central bank to obtain foreign currency from the central bank that issues it, and distribute it to commercial banks in their country. The swap line between US Federal Reserve and the ECB, for example, enables the ECB to receive US dollars in exchange for an equivalent amount of euros. The ECB can then distribute those dollars to commercial banks in the 20 countries that use the euro and minimize the difficulty for EU banks to obtain dollars.
  31. China approves USD 1.3bn loan rollover for Pakistan Research & Development Unit Source: Reuters Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd on 3rd March, 2023 approved a rollover of a USD 1.3bn loan for cash-strapped Pakistan, which will help shore up its depleting foreign exchange reserves, Pakistani Finance Minister said. The facility will be disbursed in three installments. The first one of USD 500mn has been received by Pakistan’s central bank. Pakistan has already received a USD 700mn loan from China to help boost its forex reserves. He said Pakistan will need USD 5bn external financing to close its financing gap this fiscal year, which ends in June, 2023.
  32. Why are global oil prices experiencing a dip? Research & Development Unit Source: Bloomberg - Commodities Crude oil prices neared USD 70 per barrel on 20th March, losing nearly USD 16 per barrel in a fortnight, amid a deepening banking crisis in the West. Crude oil has been on a declining trajectory since last June when it reached USD 124 per barrel. For the last four months, prices have stayed below USD 90. But a rising concern about the health of the global economy in the wake of the collapse of a few banks in the US and Europe in recent weeks has triggered a sharp fall in oil prices.
  33. News Snippets Research & Development Unit US Fed and EU rate hike The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by another quarter of a percentage point and signaled that more rate increases could come in its fight against inflation, despite higher rates triggering a series of bank failures. In a statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said America’s banking system was sound and resilient. The committee voted to raise the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.75% to 5%, its highest since 2007. The decision followed the European Central Bank’s decision to lift rates on March 16th. Euro zone inflation The euro zone’s annual inflation rate remained virtually unchanged in February at 8.5%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased to 5.6%. Inflation also rose in the currency bloc’s two biggest economies, Germany and France. Soaring inflation in Argentina Argentina’s official annual inflation rate soared to 102.5% in February, the highest it has been since 1991 and despite price controls on more than 1,700 goods. Chinese financial sector supervision reforms China’s government announced sweeping changes to its supervision of the financial sector, and will create a new body to replace the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. The oversight of financial companies (except for securities) will fall under the control of a new department that will take over some of the functions of the central bank and report to the State Council. The aim is to consolidate the operations of numerous regulators.
  34. The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC The information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain accuracy/completeness of the information, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise, suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose. < Research & Development Unit >
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