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A World of Hurt Professor Corey J. A. Bradshaw The Environment Institute & South Australian Research & Development Institute Global death count of environmental degradation © WWF
the Anthropocene mass extinction event extinction synergies ecosystem services fine-scale evidence: environment-health global-scale evidence: sick environment = sick people © WWF
[object Object]
16600 protozoa
75000-300000helminth parasites
1.5million fungi
320000 plants
4-6 million arthropods
> 6500 amphibians
> 30000 fishes
10000 birds
> 5000 mammals,[object Object]
Bradshaw et al. 2009 Trends Ecol Evol24:541-548 Bradshaw et al. 2009 Front Ecol Environ 7:79-87 ,[object Object]
highest in boreal biome (60 %)
humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia)
dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina)
N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent
Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR CongoHansen et al. 2010 PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.0912668107 Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Change in Australia, Bur RurSci © A. Prokopec
IUCN RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES www.iucnredlist.org ,[object Object]
30 % of all known amphibians
12 % of all known birds
35 % of conifers & cycads
17 % of sharks
27 % of reef-building coralsthreatened with extinction
Sodhi et al. 2008 PLoS One 3:e1636
Sodhi, Brook & Bradshaw 2007 Tropical Conservation Biology Wiley-Blackwell log % forest remaining (km-2) log human population density (km-2)
© C. Sekerçioglu
Halpern et al. 2008 Science 319:948-952
invasive species and starfish outbreaks bleaching deforestation, soil erosion, sediment & nutrient loading destructive fishing practices overfishing
Field et al. 2009 Fish & Fisheries 10:323-328
Evil quartet habitat destruction over-exploitation introduced species extinction cascades Diamond 1984 Extinctions Chicago University Press
Brook et al. 2008 Trends Ecol Evol25:453-460
Evil quintet Evil sextet habitat destruction over-exploitation introduced species extinction cascades climate change synergies Brook et al. 2008 Trends Ecol Evol25:453-460
justification to maintain healthy ecosystems is intangible because it seems unrelated to personal well-being © Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
reduce desertification maintain soils crop pollination seed dispersal food provision water purification fuel provision fibre provision climate regulation flood regulation disease regulation waste decomposition/detoxification nutrient cycling soil formation primary production pharmaceutical sources cultural appreciation (aesthetic, spiritual, educational, recreational…) €153 billion/year fisheries: €50 billion/year ,[object Object]
land-based ecosystem loss €545 billion by 2010
> €14 trillion/year lost by 2050Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI): The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target. European Commission
1990-2000 ,[object Object]
320 million people displaced
total reported damages > US$1151 billion Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol13:2379-2395
[object Object]
malaria
leptospirosis
dysentery
cholera
hepatitis
typhusincreased host habitat availability & displacement of humans to areas where inadequate sanitation and temporary high-density living promote disease Ohl & Tapsell 2000 Br Med J 321:1167-1168; Ivers & Ryan 2006 Curr Op Infect Dis19:408-414
Does a sick environment make sick people? © http://tropicaltoxic.blogspot.com
[object Object],Maas et al. 2009 J EpidemiolComm Health 63:967-973 ,[object Object],Consonni et al. 2008 Am J Epidemiol167:847-858 ,[object Object],Stevens et al. 2009 Proc NatlAcadSci USA 105:16860-16865 ,[object Object],Vittor et al. 2006 Am J Trop Med Hyg74:3-11 ,[object Object],Yasuoka & Levins 2007 Am J Trop Med Hyg76:450-460
habitat conversion/CO2 emissions	 - transmission of infectious zoonoses across forest-agriculture boundaries fertilisers 	- nitrate intake & cancer 	- water contamination 	- water acidification 	- toxic algae blooms 	- cholera outbreaks 	-  mosquito disease vectors  air & water quality - toxins/pollutants 	- pathogens 	- particulates Butler 2004 Health and Forests Earthscanpp 13-33 Peoples et al. 2004 Agriculture and the Nitrogen Cycle Island Presspp 53-69 McMichael et al. 2008 Br Med J 336:191-194; Smith et al. 2000 Proc NatlAcadSci USA 97:13286-13293; Pope et al. 2009 N Engl J Med 360:376-386; Finlayson-Pitts & Pitts 1997 Science 276:1045-1051; Pope et al.2004 Circulation 109:71-77 © N.D. Kim, Strange Matter www.lab-initio.com
City Development Index www.unchs.org Ecological Footprint www.footprintnetwork.org Environmental Performance Index epi.yale.edu Environmental Sustainability Index sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu Genuine Savings Index worldbank.org Human Development Index hdr.undp.org Living Planet Index www.panda.org Well-Being Index www.well-beingindex.com Environmental Impact Rank Böhringer & Joachim 2007 Ecol Econ 63:1-8
Environmental Performance Index epi.yale.edu
http://epi.yale.edu
[object Object],2005-1990 D/ha ,[object Object],human-modified landcover/total landcover ,[object Object],1990-2005 fish, whales, seals/EEZ km ,[object Object],NPK/ha arable land ,[object Object],biochemical oxygen demand/total renewable water resources ,[object Object],forestry, land-use change, fossil fuels/km2 ,[object Object],Red List threatened birds, mammals, amphibians/listed species Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
“I anticipate that the anti-science crowd will be screeching and howling with indignation when they read this one.” “This is such BS, China is WAY worse then the U.S.” “This researcher is a waste ...” “This article is crap.” “Can we really depend on some study when the Chinese could have funded this or maybe some group who was angry at the US and Brazil for whatever? I highly doubt the accuracy of the findings. Looks like the Treehuggers are at it again.” “Shame on you Australia !!! I guess your dying great Barrior[sic] reef is America's fault too!!!!” “here we go again. I'm so frickin' sick of these watermelons (green on the outside, red (communist) on the inside) treehuggers. The only f*^king green I care about is made of paper and folds.” Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

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A World of Hurt - Research Tuesday 2010

  • 1. A World of Hurt Professor Corey J. A. Bradshaw The Environment Institute & South Australian Research & Development Institute Global death count of environmental degradation © WWF
  • 2. the Anthropocene mass extinction event extinction synergies ecosystem services fine-scale evidence: environment-health global-scale evidence: sick environment = sick people © WWF
  • 3.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. highest in boreal biome (60 %)
  • 15. humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia)
  • 16. dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina)
  • 17. N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent
  • 18. Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR CongoHansen et al. 2010 PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.0912668107 Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Change in Australia, Bur RurSci © A. Prokopec
  • 19.
  • 20. 30 % of all known amphibians
  • 21. 12 % of all known birds
  • 22. 35 % of conifers & cycads
  • 23. 17 % of sharks
  • 24. 27 % of reef-building coralsthreatened with extinction
  • 25. Sodhi et al. 2008 PLoS One 3:e1636
  • 26. Sodhi, Brook & Bradshaw 2007 Tropical Conservation Biology Wiley-Blackwell log % forest remaining (km-2) log human population density (km-2)
  • 28. Halpern et al. 2008 Science 319:948-952
  • 29. invasive species and starfish outbreaks bleaching deforestation, soil erosion, sediment & nutrient loading destructive fishing practices overfishing
  • 30. Field et al. 2009 Fish & Fisheries 10:323-328
  • 31. Evil quartet habitat destruction over-exploitation introduced species extinction cascades Diamond 1984 Extinctions Chicago University Press
  • 32. Brook et al. 2008 Trends Ecol Evol25:453-460
  • 33. Evil quintet Evil sextet habitat destruction over-exploitation introduced species extinction cascades climate change synergies Brook et al. 2008 Trends Ecol Evol25:453-460
  • 34. justification to maintain healthy ecosystems is intangible because it seems unrelated to personal well-being © Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
  • 35.
  • 36. land-based ecosystem loss €545 billion by 2010
  • 37. > €14 trillion/year lost by 2050Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI): The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target. European Commission
  • 38.
  • 39. 320 million people displaced
  • 40. total reported damages > US$1151 billion Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol13:2379-2395
  • 41.
  • 47. typhusincreased host habitat availability & displacement of humans to areas where inadequate sanitation and temporary high-density living promote disease Ohl & Tapsell 2000 Br Med J 321:1167-1168; Ivers & Ryan 2006 Curr Op Infect Dis19:408-414
  • 48. Does a sick environment make sick people? © http://tropicaltoxic.blogspot.com
  • 49.
  • 50. habitat conversion/CO2 emissions - transmission of infectious zoonoses across forest-agriculture boundaries fertilisers - nitrate intake & cancer - water contamination - water acidification - toxic algae blooms - cholera outbreaks -  mosquito disease vectors air & water quality - toxins/pollutants - pathogens - particulates Butler 2004 Health and Forests Earthscanpp 13-33 Peoples et al. 2004 Agriculture and the Nitrogen Cycle Island Presspp 53-69 McMichael et al. 2008 Br Med J 336:191-194; Smith et al. 2000 Proc NatlAcadSci USA 97:13286-13293; Pope et al. 2009 N Engl J Med 360:376-386; Finlayson-Pitts & Pitts 1997 Science 276:1045-1051; Pope et al.2004 Circulation 109:71-77 © N.D. Kim, Strange Matter www.lab-initio.com
  • 51. City Development Index www.unchs.org Ecological Footprint www.footprintnetwork.org Environmental Performance Index epi.yale.edu Environmental Sustainability Index sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu Genuine Savings Index worldbank.org Human Development Index hdr.undp.org Living Planet Index www.panda.org Well-Being Index www.well-beingindex.com Environmental Impact Rank Böhringer & Joachim 2007 Ecol Econ 63:1-8
  • 54.
  • 55. “I anticipate that the anti-science crowd will be screeching and howling with indignation when they read this one.” “This is such BS, China is WAY worse then the U.S.” “This researcher is a waste ...” “This article is crap.” “Can we really depend on some study when the Chinese could have funded this or maybe some group who was angry at the US and Brazil for whatever? I highly doubt the accuracy of the findings. Looks like the Treehuggers are at it again.” “Shame on you Australia !!! I guess your dying great Barrior[sic] reef is America's fault too!!!!” “here we go again. I'm so frickin' sick of these watermelons (green on the outside, red (communist) on the inside) treehuggers. The only f*^king green I care about is made of paper and folds.” Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  • 56. DATA Human health: World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database Environment: - Environmental Combination Index (adapted from Yale Env Performance Index) - Proportional Environmental Impact rank (Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440) - natural habitat conversion proportion (Global Land Cover 2000 dataset) - air/water quality (Yale Environmental Performance Index) - NPK fertiliser use/area arable land (FAOSTAT database) - CO2 emissions (Climate Analysis Indicators tool) Control: - human population size (United Nations Common Database) - purchasing-power parity-adjusted GNI (World Resources Institute) - health expenditure (WHO Statistical Information System)
  • 57.
  • 58. Infant Mortality (male) – 2004 mortality per 1000 live births
  • 59. Life Expectancy at birth (male) – 2004
  • 60. Diarrhoea deaths among children < 5 years (2000)
  • 61. Malaria deaths among children < 5 years (2000)
  • 62. Deaths due to Cardiovascular Disease (2002 age-standardised per 10,000)
  • 63.
  • 64. 10 %  ECI   mINFM 7.0/1000 live births  mLE 1.9 years http://epi.yale.edu
  • 65. S b PROPORTIONALENVIRONMENTAL INDEX RANK e P Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  • 66. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  • 67. S b ALL DISEASE e P
  • 69. S b INFECTIOUS DISEASE e P
  • 71. S b NON-INFECTIOUS DISEASE e P
  • 73. 10 %  water quality   infant mortality 3.4/1000 live births  > 946,000 extra infant deaths/year§   1.6 years life expectancy 10 %  air quality   2.0 cancer deaths/100,000  > 132,900 extra cancer deaths/year§ 10 %  pcCO2 emissions  infant mortality 0.4/1000 live births  > 11,700 extra infant deaths/year§ §assuming 21.2 births/1000 population & human population 6.5 billion
  • 74. countries > median pcGNI countries < median population density
  • 75. habitat is degraded  disease spreads, but country improves economically  healthcare improves  better state of health habitat is degraded  spread of zoonotic disease/pollutants/pathogens  state of health declines country is poor/population is high  drives habitat degradation; country is poor  also drives poor healthcare  state of health declines © WWF
  • 76. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  • 77. habitat is degraded  disease spreads, but country improves economically  healthcare improves  better state of health habitat is degraded  spread of zoonotic disease/pollutants/pathogens  state of health declines country is poor/population is high  drives habitat degradation; country is poor  also drives poor healthcare  state of health declines © WWF
  • 79.
  • 81. despite enormous variation & leakage, clear environment-human health signal among countries
  • 82. more than just water/air pollution, but likely strongest direct mechanisms
  • 83. different mechanisms operating on different disease pathways
  • 84. > 60 % of EIDs caused by zoonotic pathogens, of which > 70% derive from wildlife
  • 85. Increasing fragmentation & penetration by humans risks  probabilities of novel disease emergence and spread© WWF
  • 86.
  • 87. for upcoming presentations and podcasts visit: www.adelaide.edu.au/researchtuesdays for related topics visit: ConservationBytes.com
  • 88.
  • 89.
  • 90.
  • 91.
  • 92. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  • 93. ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE environmental damage per capita prosperity Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  • 94. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

Notas del editor

  1. Russia has the most extensive forest cover, followed by Brazil, Canada and USAEstimated area of gross forest cover loss at the global scale is 1,011,000 km2, or 3.1 % of year 2000 forest area (0.6% per year from 2000 to 2005)Gross forest cover loss was highest in the boreal biome, with fire accounting for 60 % of that lossThe humid tropics had the second-highest gross forest cover loss, due mainly to broad-scale clearing for agriculture in Brazil, Indonesia and MalaysiaWhen expressed as proportion lost from the 2000 extent estimates, the humid tropics is the least disturbedThe Amazon interior is the largest remaining ‘intact’ forest, followed by the Congo basinThe dry tropics has the 3rd-highest gross forest cover loss, with Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay accounting for most of thisAlthough the temperate biome had the lowest forest cover (due mainly to forest clearances long, long ago), it had the 2nd-highest proportional gross forest cover lossNorth America has the greatest area of gross forest cover loss, followed by Asia and South AmericaNorth America alone accounts for ~ 30 % of global gross forest cover loss, and has the highest proportional gross forest cover loss at 5.1 %Brazil has the highest gross national forest cover loss of any nationIndonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are next in line for tropical countriesUSA has the highest proportional global forest cover loss since 2000Despite previous estimates suggesting that Canada has had little forest loss, the new estimates place it second in terms of gross forest cover loss only to Brazil
  2. 1990-2000: nearly 100 000 people were killed and 320 million people were displaced by floods, with total reported economic damages exceeding US$1151 billion
  3. habitat conversion = modification of forests &amp; other natural habitats for agriculture and urban development)
  4. Despite this moderate concordance, countries can perform poorly for somewhat different reasons; for example, Singapore, Bahrain and Malta had high relative fertiliser use and CO2 emissions, Indonesia and Honduras had high rates of deforestation, Bangladesh and Denmark had high habitat conversion, China had high marine captures, and New Zealand had a high proportion of threatened species