Accounting for uncertainty when estimating Pleistocene megafauna extinction times
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This week's topic was Accounting for uncertainty when estimating Pleistocene megafauna extinction times and was presented by Corey Bradshow Director of Ecological Modelling here at the Environment Institute.
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Accounting for uncertainty when estimating Pleistocene megafauna extinction times
- 1. Accounting for uncertainty when estimating Pleistocene megafauna extinction times Corey J. A. Bradshaw1,2, Barry W. Brook1, Chris S. M. Turney3, Alan Cooper1,4 1THE ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE, University of Adelaide; 2South Australian Research & Development Institute; 3School of Geography, University of Exeter; 4Australian Centre for Ancient DNA
- 3. when a species becomes increasingly rare before extinction, might persist unseen for many years
- 4. so the time of last sighting often poor estimate of extinction datex x x x x x x x x x x ? ? present past Roberts & Solow 2003 Nature 426:245
- 6. joint distribution of k same Weibull form regardless of parent distribution
- 8. L: symmetric k×k matrix
- 9. n: Estimated shape parameter of joint Weibull distribution of kCI q x x x x x x x x x x x present past Roberts & Solow 2003 Nature 426:245
- 12. assume true ages U independent/uniformly distributed over (b1,g1) where b1 = extinction date
- 13. PDF of Xj:b1 x x x x x x x x x x x present past Solow et al. 2006 PNAS 103:7351
- 15. length of period since last sighting informative
- 16. given previous sighting rate(n/tn), probability of next sighting
- 17. where p drops below threshold with increasing T-tn, TE inferredTE x x x x x x x x x x x present past McInerny et al. 2006 ConservBiol20:562
- 19. declining influence of dates within time since last sighting
- 20. sequentially recalculated TE, weighting by cumulative distance from T1T1 TE x x x x x x x x x x x present past
- 23. declining influence of dates within time since last sighting
- 25. uniform linear sigmoidal exponential logarithmic
- 28. Glacials, Interglacials, Stadials and Interstadials stadial interstadial Interglacial Glacial Interglacial
- 29. Extracting An Ice Core
- 30. Annual Layers In Ice Core
- 32. intense seasonal productivity and high sedimentation rate
- 33. anoxic below 300 m
- 35. Mw-rs ~ -83+ 0.98 × AMS
- 37. Interstadials – OXCAL wPDFs extinctions - unconstrained P(rand overlap = 0.12) combined ext/app P(rand overlap) = 0.13 extinctions - constrained P(rand overlap) = 0.09
- 38. Interstadials – OXCAL raw dates extinctions - raw dates P(rand overlap = 0.06) combined ext/app P(rand overlap) = 0.11 appearances – raw dates
- 39. Stadials – OXCAL raw dates extinctions - raw dates P(rand overlap = 0.46) combined ext/app P(rand overlap) = 0.27