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Indo-Ganges: A Basin under Extreme Pressure

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Presented at the Basin Focal Project workshop 'Clarifying the global picture of water, food and poverty' from 18-20th September in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

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Indo-Ganges: A Basin under Extreme Pressure

  1. 1. Indo-Ganges: A Basin under Extreme Pressure Targeting Double Dividends: Improving Water Productivity and Alleviating Poverty Bharat Sharma On behalf of BFP-IGB Team
  2. 2. Nexus- Paradoxon Indus- Gangetic Basin Hydrology Socio-Ecology Pakistan India Nepal Bangladesh Water Availability, Cost of Water, Poverty Water Development, Holding size Energy, Productivity
  3. 3. Socio-economic and Water Status of IG Basin Countries Parameters Bangla. India Nepal Pakistan Acc. to improved water resources,% 74 86 90 91 improved sanitation, % 39 33 35 59 Per cap. Electricity consumption, kWh 145 594 91 493 Popu. Below national poverty 49.8 28.6 30.9 32.6 line Agriculture, % of GDP 20.1 18.3 38.2 21.6 Per capita GDP (USD) 406 640 252 632 IRWR (m3/cap./yr) 688 1149 7539 325
  4. 4. Freshwater under Threat Parameter Indus GBM Resource Stress 0.49 0.39 (scarcity, variation) Development Pressure 0.51 0.17 (exploitation, DW inaccessibility) Ecological Insecurity 0.80 0.57 ( water pollution, ecosystem deterioration) Management Challenges 0.57 0.65 (WU inefficiency, Sani. inaccess., Conflict manage) Vulnerability Index 0.59 0.45 GDP/m3 of water use 3.34* 3.47* *Global average:$8.6/m3; Avg five top food producers(Bra,Chi,Fra,Mex,US):$ 23.8/m3 Source: Babel and Wahid(2008)( Freshwater under Threat: South Asia)
  5. 5. Biomass and Water Dynamics in Indus and Ganges (Basin level scale using AVHRR Mega Dataset, IWMI-GIAM) GRACE satellite remote sensing a 2000-km Scaled swath running from DVI eastern Pakistan- northern India- Bangladesh showed January, 1984 that the region is fast September, 1984 (Rabi crop) depleting its (Kharif crop- wettest period) groundwater: 54 km3 lost per year in the world’s most intensively irrigated area hosting 600 m people, GW levels fall ~ 10 January, 2000 cm/year averaged September, 2000 (Rabi crop) over the entire region. (kharif crop- wettest period) (Science, 2009: 325, 798)
  6. 6. Flooding in the Ganges Basin 250 Eastern Asia SouthEast Asia South Asia 200 West Asia Damages Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan umber of flood events Deaths 52,033 55,656 5,637 8,877 150 Population 304.63 763.99 2.98 37.69 100 affected (million) Homeless 4219724 13210000 84925 4234415 50 Injured 102390 1561 1072 1981 Estimated Cost 0 12038.4 29417.2 0.977 2865.2 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 00-08 (US$ M) Period
  7. 7. Logic and Structure of BFP-IGB Background Demography Rural poverty Economic overview Agriculture What is the overall situation? Water Water availability :WP2 productivity:WP3 Climate water account Crop water productivity, kg/m3 Water allocation water hazards Water value-adding $/m3 What is the water balance? How well is the water used? et value/costs Policies and Institutions:WP4 Farming Water Water rights Water policies Land rights Governance Power Infrastructure Supply chains Who ‘handles’ the water? Who enables farmer to improve productivity? What links water, food and poverty? What are foreseeable risks and opportunities for change? Knowledge, Impact and Change Management.
  8. 8. Approach of Analysis: Basin to Sub-Basin to Household • Macro or basin level analysis of poverty/ water poverty, water resources, water productivity, water laws and potential interventions. •Sub-basin wise HH level detailed analysis of poverty, water resources, water institutions/ policies, interventions. •Strong linkages with GGA, NRLP, RWC, Climate Change impact projects
  9. 9. Ganga Basin Focal Project: Water Availability and Access , Levels of Analysis • Basin Scale Analysis – Monthly water balance using WEAP • Sub-basin Scale – Detailed water balance calculations using SWAT Data access is the main challenge
  10. 10. Water Resources in Indus-Gangetic Basin Generation of sub-basin networks for Ganges (and Indus) BCM
  11. 11. Groundwater Recharge in Indus- Gangetic Basin
  12. 12. Groundwater availability and its use in the Indus-Gangetic Basin Basin ame Groundwater Annual Groundwater Draft Stage of GW Available (BCM) Development (BCM) (%) Irrigation Domestic, Total Industrial & others Ganga Basin India 168.7 94.4 8.2 102.4 61 epal 11.5 0.8 0.3 1.1 10 Bangladesh 64.6 25.2 4.1 29.3 45 Total 244.8 120.4 12.6 132.8 54 Indus Basin India 30.2 36.4 1.6 38.0 126 Pakistan* 55.1 46.2 5.1 51.3 93 Total 85.3 82.6 6.7 89.3 105
  13. 13. Simulation of Glaciers' Contribution to Streamflow WEAP glaciers module under development in collaboration with by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)/ IRD, France,
  14. 14. Starting with the Kosi basin In WEAP Time series of streamflows in Nepal are available, Glaciers' contribution is significant, BFP IGB is developing a SWAT application in this basin, => start calibrating WEAP in the Kosi sub-basin and use this setting for sub-basins where observed time series are not available.
  15. 15. Calibration / Validation Calibration / validation against observed streamflows. Good results upstream, in high elevated sub-basins. Calibration Validation 3,000 3,000 WEAP WEAP Observed Observed 2,500 Nash = 0.90 2,500 Nash = 0.78 Cumulated flow observed = 68.1 km3 Cumulated flow observed = 67.5 km3 Cumulated flow WEAP = 67.7 km3 Cumulated flow WEAP = 64.1 km3 Streamflow (Mm3/month) Streamflow (Mm3/month) 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 500 500 0 0 11/78 04/80 08/81 01/83 05/84 09/85 02/87 06/88 11/89 11/89 04/91 08/92 01/94 05/95 09/96 02/98 06/99 11/00
  16. 16. Example of Simulated Glaciers' Behaviour Evolution of glacier coverage in Rabuwa sub-basin with time 500 450 400 350 Glaciers contribution to Glacier total area (km2) annual streamflow: about 40% 300 8,000 Glaciers 250 Rainfall-runoff 7,000 200 Reduction of 20% in 20 years 6,000 Streamflow (Mm3 / year) 150 5,000 100 4,000 50 3,000 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 2,000 No chronological data from the region to validate these simulations. 1,000 But in accordance with the literature. 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 Year
  17. 17. Gorai-River Catchment, Bangladesh (SWAT Analysis) Study the effect of upstream water resource development and as well as the influence of land use change on the hydrology and water balance of the Gorai River Catchment 500 1965-75 1990-99 400 Flow (MCM) 300 200 Average monthly inflow to the Gorai 100 Catchment measured at Gorai 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec railway-bridge at two time periods Month
  18. 18. Land Use Change Comparison of both land use map shows: • 2% reduction in water bodies from 1977 to 1997 • Settlement area remains constant • Agriculture area including rice has increased from 52% to 80% from the total basin land extent • Forest area has decreased from 29% to 4% from 1977 to 1997
  19. 19. Water Balance Results 4000 2000 Input/output (mm) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 -2000 -4000 Average annual RF (mm) Average annual ET (mm) Average annual RO (mm) Balance closer (mm) Water balance at each sub basin during 1965 to 1975 (1 to 22 are sub 4000 basin numbers) 2000 Input/Output (mm) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 -2000 -4000 Average annual RF (mm) Average annual ET (mm) Average annual RO (mm) Balance closer (mm) Water balance at each sub basin during 1990 to 1997
  20. 20. 500 1965-75 1990-99 400 Flow (MCM) 300 200 •The Upstream part of the 100 basin is extremely effected 0 by the Farakka barrage Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month discharges as flow in the Average monthly inflow to the Gorai Catchment monsoon is reduced and 500 flow in the dry season 400 1965-75 _obs 1990-1999_sim_97LU approaches zero. 1965-75 _sim_77LU Flow (MCM) 300 200 •Simulations from the 100 downstream or the outlet of 0 the basin shows that flows Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec are reduced during the Average monthly out flow from the sub basin 4 monsoon season, 500 1965-75_sim_77LU however, flows in the dry 400 1990-1999_sim_97LU Flow (MCM) season, esp. March-May 300 has not changed in the two 200 periods and is effected by 100 the land use in the whole 0 basin Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Average monthly out flow from the Catchment outlet (sub basin 22)
  21. 21. Completed/ Planned Outputs for WP 2 1. Energy supply and expansion of irrigation in the Indus-Gangetic basin: Published (C A Scott, Bharat Sharma, JRBM,2009, 7(1): 1-6) 2. Hydro-geology and Water Resources of Indus-Gangetic Basin: Comparative Analysis of Issues and Opportunities" ( Bharat R Sharma and G. Ambili )- Accepted as a Review Paper 3. Setting of a Decision Support Tool for Assessment and Allocation of the Water Resource in the Indo-Ganges Basin (WEAP Modelling): (Dev D Condappa, Luna Bharati, Bharat Sharma) 4. Challenges and Prospects of Sustainable Groundwater Management in the Indus Basin, Pakistan: ( Asad Qureshi and .) 5. Water, Climate Change, and Adaptation: Focus on the Gages River Basin : (H R Hostermann, PG McCornick, EJ Kistin, A Pant, B R Sharma, L Bharati, Working Paper published in collaboration with Nicholas Institute, Duke University, USA) 6. Water Availability and Access Analysis in Selected Sub-basins of the Ganges basin ( Luna Bharati, V. Smakhtin, Bharat Sharma, Priyantha)
  22. 22. Estimating Water Productivity in the Indus-Gangetic Basin • Magnitude – What’s the current status? • Spatial Variation – How does it vary within and among regions? • Causes – Why is WP varying (both high and low)? • Scope for improvement – How much potential for, where? • Irrigated vs. rainfed – What’s the option for sustainable development under water scarcity and food deficit condition? • Crop vs. livestock and fisheries – How is livestock and fisheries contributing to water use outputs?
  23. 23. Data collection A ground truth mission was conducted in India from 8th -17th Oct, 2008 • Across Indus and Gangetic river basin • >2700km covered • 175 samples – LULC – Cropping pattern – Agricultural productivity (cut and farmer survey) Introd. – Water use (rainfed, Data surface/GW) LULC – Social-economic survey Prod. Water Results Plan
  24. 24. Crop Dominance Map Introd. Data A “crop dominance map” of namely year LULC 2008 shows major crops rice and wheat area, and other mixed croplands. Watering Prod. sources are also given for IGB map. Water Results Plan
  25. 25. Crop Productivity Step 2. Pixel wise rice productivity map interpolation using MODIS data NDVI composition Paddy rice yield map of 2005 of 29 Aug – 5 Sept 2005 for rice area MODIS 250m NDVI at rice heading stage was used to interpolate yield from district average to pixel Introd. wise employing rice yield ~ NDVI linear relationship. Data LULC Prod. Water Results Plan
  26. 26. Actual ET Estimation Actual ET Calculation by Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) Approach SSEB TH − Tx ETf = TH − TC ETa = ETp ∗ ET f MODIS LST 2005 Sept 21 ETa – the actual Evapotranspiration, mm. ETf – the evaporative fraction, 0-1, unitless. ET0 – Potential ET, mm. Tx – the Land Surface Temperature (LST) of pixel x from thermal data. TH/TC – the LST of hottest/coldest pixels. potential ET map (2005 Sept 21) ET fraction map (2005 Sept 21) Introd. Data LULC Prod. Seasonal actual ET map (2005 Jun 10 – Oct 15) Water Results Plan
  27. 27. Water Productivity Maps Rice productivity (kg/m3) Introd. Data LULC Prod. Water Mean AVG SDV Min Max Results 0.618 0.618 0.306 0.09 2.5 Plan
  28. 28. Water Productivity Maps Paddy productivity (kg/m3) Rice water productivity for 4 major IGB countries (unit: kg/m3) Country ADMIN_NAME WP_MEAN Country ADMIN_NAME WP_MEAN Bangladesh Chittagong 0.445 Pakistan North-west Frontier 0.451 Bangladesh Dhaka 0.496 Pakistan FAT 0.525 Bangladesh Barisal 0.533 Pakistan Azad Kashmir 0.580 Bangladesh Khulna 0.796 Pakistan Baluchistan 0.657 Bangladesh Rajshahi 0.856 Pakistan Sind 0.732 Pakistan Punjab 0.755 Average 0.625 Average 0.617 Nepal Lumbini 0.542 India Madhya Pradesh 0.393 Nepal Sagarmatha 0.556 India Himachal Pradesh 0.407 Nepal Janakpur 0.578 India Bihar 0.408 Nepal Bagmati 0.583 India Jammu & Kashmir 0.430 Nepal Gandaki 0.607 India Uttar Pradesh 0.560 Introd. Nepal Seti 0.699 India West Bengal 0.718 Data Nepal Bheri 0.713 India Rajasthan 0.720 LULC Nepal Rapti 0.715 India Haryana 0.746 Prod. Nepal Narayani 0.754 India Delhi 0.818 Nepal Mahakali 0.792 India Punjab 0.833 Water Nepal Kosi 0.904 Results Nepal Mechi 0.964 Plan Average 0.701 Average 0.603
  29. 29. Wheat Water Productivity in the Indus- Gangetic Basin
  30. 30. Water Productivity Maps Preliminary findings: 1. Basin average evapo-transpiration (328mm) is close to long term average precipitation (323mm) for the rice growing period; 2. Water productivity in Indo-Gangetic river basin is generally low, meaning great scope for improvement; 3. Significant variability exists across fields and regions. General decline from North-west to South-east could be observed; 4. The variability shows no direct relationship with Introd. climate conditions, implying the significance of irrigation; Data LULC 5. Sugarcane, pulses and millet make significant contributions to the overall productivity of water. Prod. Water Results Plan
  31. 31. Differences in Paddy and Wheat Yield due to Source of Irrigation in Punjab Source: Kumar et al (2008) Region District Main source of Crop yield (tons/ ha) irrigation Paddy Wheat Lower Bist Jallandhar Tubewell 6.26 4.68 Doab Kapurthala Tubewell 5.98 4.73 Sub- Hoshiarpur Conjunctive Use 4.46 3.82 Mountainous Canal irrigation 3.47 2.80
  32. 32. SWAP—Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant relationship model for part of Rechna Doab sub-basin rain/irrigation 1. Water productivity Atmosphere determinatio interception transpiration ns at the Plant soil evaporation plot level. surface runoff Unsaturated zone 2. Water drainage/ productivity issues on infiltration Flow / transport of: sub-basin Saturated soil water, heat, solutes level based zone Influenced by: on salt and hysteresis water seepage/ balance soil spatial variability percolation studies. Deep Groundwater water repellency 32
  33. 33. Fisheries Water Productivity in Lower Ganges Basin, Bangladesh • Assess Fisheries-water Productivity • Evaluate fisheries & aquaculture potential • Identify the issues that hinder the productivity potential • Identify high potential and low cost options/interventions for fisheries productivity • Evaluate policy and institutional issues to address fisheries potential • Identify present level economic use of land and water from different agricultural land-use systems including aquaculture and intergrated farming systems • Suggest innovative use of land and water to maximize productivity – with high potential and value added outputs
  34. 34. Fish Productivity Analyze present Analyze historical data then spatial data then temporal variation variation Analysis of Sub-basin Potential Area (situation Identification and analysis) Evaluation Identification of Those hinder the Issues productivity potential -Inst. Strength Capture Aquaculture -Co-management institutions Fisheries - Habitat loss/degradation - Seasonality, depth, connectivity Technology Institutional efficiency Evaluate policy and Access to water Identify the low cost Institutional issues to address and high potential fisheries potential intervention Recommended Interventions
  35. 35. HH Sample Distribution Capture Fishery systems A total 132, 27 and 42 HHs were selected for River, Beel and canal system respectively from 3 selected districts Culture Fishery systems A total 33, 284, 17, 52, 16, 52, 1 and 67 HHs were selected for Intensive, semi-intensive, IAA, Rice-fish, Shrimp, fresh-water prawn, nursery and others system respectively from 3 selected districts
  36. 36. Capture Fisheries Variation in productivity between the habitat -Baors have higher overall productivity. -These habitats are semi-closed systems and more manageable than beels, and therefore better production. - North-Eastern part of sub-basin (Faridpur) is the only area where productivity in both habitat types is reasonably high, and this may be related to the proximity of the water bodies and connected through tributaries and distributaries to the river Padma.
  37. 37. Access to Aquatic Resources 100.00% 80.00% Chuadanga 60.00% Narail 40.00% 20.00% Bagerhat 0.00% -- Poor fishermen are deprived of leasing right to the open water No s e Ye ns bodies s po Re n No Leasing rights of the fishers in different parts of the basin District Fisheries office Lease holder -- Fishers told that, adjacent villagers, 10.53 6.58 land owners and local influential Muslim fisher's barred them illegally from fishing. 26.32 No barrier 22.37 Police --They have complained to the People/fishers of concerned department but failed 7.89 adjacent village almost all the time. 9.21 Ow ner of adjacent 1.32 10.53 ponds/pagars/ gher 5.26 Local influential Chairman Barriers imposed by different actors (%)
  38. 38. Culture Fisheries Variations in Fish Productivity Between Habitat Cultured pond Culturable pond Derelict pond Exceptionally high aquaculture productivity is linked mainly to the strong presence of Govt. agencies/institutions and NGOs, and to a well established seed production and supply system (e.g. highly density of Hatchery, Nursery and grow out ponds). The marketing facilities of the products also well dynamic (e.g. processing plants, depots etc.) Lower productivity in aquaculture systems is due to mostly to weak institutional links and multiple-ownership of the ponds
  39. 39. Culture Fisheries Water productivity for aquaculture based on HH survey Average Productivity (kg/m3) Remarks System Chuadanga Narail Bagerhat Low-input pond 0.046 (67) Value in Semi-intensive 0.22 (111) 0.15 (126) 0.074 (47) parenthesis Intensive 0.24 (26) 0.18 (7) - indicate the HH sample number Rice-Fish 0.31 (11) 0.095 (7) 0.051 (34) Duck-checken-Fish - 0.093 (1) 0.072 (16) Bagda Culture - 0.068 (1) 0.034 (15) Galda Culture - 0.073 (38) 0.037 (14) Nursery - - 0.051 (1) -The most productive use of water was found to be achieved in rice-fish system (in Chuadanga) in terms of economic output. - Water productivity of intensive fish culture was found to be the highest in some ponds but it was considered not yet to be an ideally valued efficiency as the standard deviation was high and not conclusive.
  40. 40. Open Water System (Capture fisheries): Govt. and Private Capture Fisheries Constrains Opportunity Probable solutions Remarks - Land type changes (changes of -Water availability - Develop more fish Sum up of the water body types) and cultivate period also longer sanctuaries followed by technical, cereal crop then upper part habitat restoration, which social and - Leasing system is not productive have wider beneficial impact institutional friendly and complex -Separation of of fisheries productivity based on: Insufficient capital, coordination, Judiciary from - Conservation of natural and management instruments executive has breeding place/sanctuary Secondary - Conflict for Property right in facilitating to development and doc HH floodplain area implement legal management survey, FGD, - Illegal fishing in non-leased area aspects - Leasing system of pubic Farm visit, - Environmental degradation and water need to change for Professional and Expert destructive fishing -New “Jomohal” productive and sustainability judgments - Lack of sustainable policy need to be consideration. management technology pro-poor - On-field training - Insufficient training and - Agriculture policy need be extension services due -Existing integrated and made - Manpower deficiency management synchronized with the other - Communication/roads and practice with natural resource policies e.g. transportation facilities Community based water policy, fisheries policy, - Lack of policy regarding management environment policy those sustainable environmental friendly advocate for mechanisms for culture management enhanced ecosystem productivity; as the
  41. 41. Closed and Semi-closed Water System (Culture fisheries) Opportunity Probable Remarks Constrains solutions -Multi-ownership pond (pond - Almost every HH Community based fish Sum up of getting from ancestor) unit has a pond in culture and the technical, -Conflicts – middle stream management in large social and -Cash Capital; credit support - Educated youth open and semi closed institutional -Sustainable marketing system are engaging with water-bodies based on: -Wrong leasing system in case this farming system Hatchery, nursery, of Govt. ponds - Young feed mills, Fish-dipo, Secondary -Lack of policy regarding professional are processing plant, doc HH sustainable environmental like to take Decentralized fish survey, FGD, friendly culture management challenges for seed technology Farm visit, -Quality seed, feed, fertilizer future betterment extension can help Professional and other materials for fish (personal/society/politi and Expert culture cal) judgments -Lack of Environment friendly Extension services sustainable technology strengthen upto union -Lack of required level by increasing Trained/skilled manpower for sufficient skilled training and extension services manpower -Communication/roads and transportation facilities
  42. 42. Outputs for Water Productivity Analysis of IG Basin 1. Dignosing irrigation performance and water productivity through satellite remote sesing and secondary data in a large irrigation system in Pakistan: Published ( M D Ahmad, H Turral, A. Nazeer; Agril. Water Manage.-2008) 2. Integrating remote sensing, census and weather data for an assessment of rice yield, water consumption and water productivity in the Indo-Gangetic river basin (CAI XueLiang1† & Bharat Sharma2 (Accepted for “Agricultural Water Management” Ref. MS. No. AGWAT2336R1, ISI Journal 3. Remote sensing and census based assessment and scope for improvement of rice and wheat water productivity in the Indo-Gangetic basin (CAI XueLiang1† & Bharat Sharma2) to be presented at International Conference in Wuhan, China and accepted for “Science in China” 4. A coupled approach for regional rice water use and productivity assessment in Indo-Gangetic river basin, Cai Xueliang & B R Sharma ( Accepted for presentation during International FSES-2009, IIT, Kharagpur, India) 5. Wheat Water Productivity in Indo-Gangetic River Basin Assessed from Remote Sensing and Census Information ( B R Sharma & C Xueliang) ( Accepted for presentation during International FSES-2009, IIT, Kharagpur, India) 6. Fisheries-Water productivity of the IGB/EGB: Bangladesh in the context of Gorai-Madhumati sub-basin : Issues /Barriers and opportunities for improvement ( G. Mustafa, S H Avila, MG Khan, A Brroks) 7. An assessment of agricultural water productivity in the Indo-Gangetic River basin: Current status and scope for improvement: X Cai, B R Sharma et al., : IWMI Research Report ( Proposed) ..
  43. 43. Water and Land Policies and Institutions • Water and Energy Policies in the Indus-Gangetic Basin •Governance of Informal Water Economies: Framework for Study of Water Governance in the Indo-Gangetic Basin •The Water Sector Policy and Legal Framework in the Indo- Gangetic Basin: Trends, their Drivers and Implications • Land and Water Bodies Leasing Policies in the Indus- Gangetic Basin
  44. 44. Components of Water Governance Institutional Environment Legal and Regulatory Framework Institutional Arrangements e.g. Water markets WUAs Water Policy Water Right administration Implementation
  45. 45. Why are we doing this study? • South Asian countries are known for their limited state capacity and a huge mismatch between state’s ambitions and capabilities. • Society is in many ways powerful than the state. • Laws are most often statement of intent and most often not even that!
  46. 46. Orientation of Water Sector Legal Instruments between Water Resource Development, Management & Governance in the IGB Definitions (Subject to interpretation) Water resource Water resource Water resource governance development management An orientation Recognition of the need Expansion of rules and institutional towards increasing to regulate exploitation structures from resource regulation resource and establishment of to also address social issues. E.g. exploitation. E.g. rules and institutions for decentralization & participation in expanding irrigation this purpose. planning; equitable access amongst and hydropower Laws to promote and different sectors and marginalised generation. regulate groups; adoption of integrated Laws to manage resource planning approaches. Public Production
  47. 47. Most irrigation investments in 1960s to 1980s, and laws in 1990s and 2000? WHY?
  48. 48. Orientation of Water Sector Legal Instruments between Water Resource Development, Management & Governance in the IGB
  49. 49. Focus of Water Sector Legal Instruments in the IGB (By Decade) GW India 30 28 26 24 22 Instruments 20 Irrigation & IWRM India 18 Drainage Pakistan 16 14 12 10 Water Quality 8 India 6 4 2 0 1900 to 1910 to 1920 to 1930 to 1940 to 1950 to 1960 to 1970 to 1980 to 1990 to 2000 to 1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 Decade Irrigation & Drainage Bangladesh Irrigation & Drainage India Irrigation & Drainage Nepal Irrigation & Drainage Pakistan Hydropower Bangladesh Hydropower India Hydropower Nepal Hydropower Pakistan Watershed Mgt Bangladesh Watershed Mgt India Watershed Mgt Nepal Watershed Mgt Pakistan Environmental Mgt Bangladesh Environmental Mgt India Environmental Mgt Nepal Environmental Mgt Pakistan Flood Mgt Bangladesh Flood Mgt India Flood Mgt Nepal Flood Mgt Pakistan Water Quality Bangladesh Water Quality India Water Quality Nepal Water Quality Pakistan Drinking water supply Bangladesh Drinking water supply India Drinking water supply Nepal Drinking water supply Pakistan Municipal Water Bangladesh Municipal Water India Municipal Water Nepal Municipal Water Pakistan Water Use Efficiency Bangladesh Water Use Efficiency India Water Use Efficiency Nepal Water Use Efficiency Pakistan IWRM Bangladesh IWRM India IWRM Nepal IWRM Pakistan Dispute Resolution Bangladesh Dispute Resolution India Dispute Resolution Nepal Dispute Resolution Pakistan Groundwater Bangladesh Groundwater India Groundwater Nepal Groundwater Pakistan Cost Recovery Bangladesh Cost Recovery India Cost Recovery Nepal Cost Recovery Pakistan
  50. 50. Water Sector Legal Instruments in the IGB Countries (By Primary Focus) I&D dominant in BD over last 50 12 2000 to 2009 years & in PK in 1990s 11 IWRM emerging in GW a key 1990 to 1999 2000s across IGB 10 priority for India in 1990s 9 1980 to 1989 8 1970 to 1979 7 Instruments Expansion from I&D to IWRM in 6 1960 to 1969 BD in last 20 yrs 5 1950 to 1959 4 1940 to 1949 3 2 1930 to 1939 1 1920 to 1929 0 Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan India India India India India India India India India India India India India Nepal Nepal Nepal Nepal Nepal Nepal Nepal Nepal Nepal Nepal Nepal Nepal Nepal Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh 1910 to 1919 1900 to 1909 Irrigation Hydropow er atershed W Environmental Flood Mgt Water Drinking Municipal Water Use IWRM Dispute Groundw ater Cost & Mgt Mgt Quality w ater Water Ef f iciency Resolution Recovery Drainage supply Primary Focus
  51. 51. Energy Divide in South Asia’s groundwater irrigation economy Bangladesh and Pakistan have metered out electric tubewells. West Bengal is following suit. Eastern India has de- electrified its country-side In Indian Indus basin, farmers have held the political Class to ransom and kept meters out.
  52. 52. Distribution of GW structures in India and the Indus-Gangetic basin
  53. 53. In 1990, buying a liter of diesel required selling less than a kg of rice or wheat; today, it requires 3-5 times more. kg rice/litre Diesel Rice of diesel (Rs/l) (Rs/kg) India 5.67 34.00 6.00 Pakistan 3.20 37.80 11.80 Bangladesh 3.89 35.00 9.00 Nepal terai 5.70 57.00 10.00
  54. 54. Desperate Strategies: Small-holder/Water Buyer Responses to Diesel Price Increase Diesel-saving crop substitution: boro rice on a decline Among diesel pump buyers; Return to rainfed farming West Bengal: Chinese diesel/keroseneis common for It pumps to the aid of India’s agrarian poorfarmers in eastern India to Energy substitution: PDS kerosene for diesel;Rs 80-120 for pay Electricity preferred but connections hard to come by water. Pump irrigation 50 m3 of price is downwardly Forced exit from unviable farming-for landless who Cultivated does not sticky; it leased land with rented diesel pumps fall when diesel Energy saving price falls.practices: alternate furrow; irrigation Pump irrigation price Rubber pipes; adjacent fields leased to use drainage for water buyers is Gambler’s response: shift to high value, high30-40% rising input, High risk crops-summer onion in North Bihar diesel faster than price Large increases in monopoly rents and power of electric tubewell owners: Uttar Pradesh
  55. 55. Outputs from Policy and Institutions Studies 1. Is irrigation water free ? A reality check in the Indo-Gangetic basin : T shah, M U Hasan, M Z Khattak, P S Banerjee, OP Singh, SU Rehman; World Development (2008)- Published 2. An inventory of national, sub-national and transboundary water- related legal instruments in Indus- Gangetic basin : ( A Mukherji, S de Silva) 3. Evolution of water sector policies and laws in the Indus-Gangetic Basin – Drivers and Trends: ( A Mukherji, S de Silva) 4. Institutional dynamics of culture fishery economy in the Indo- Gangetic basin: ( T Shah , R Indu) 3. Governance of Informal Water Economies: A Preliminary Framework for Study of Water Governance in the Indo-Gangetic Basin : ( T Shah, RPS Malik) ?
  56. 56. Potential interventions Definition of interventions and development of intervention matrices Intervention analysis Identification of potential intervention
  57. 57. Identification of WP Interventions Resource Climate Water and Multiple Use Conservation Farming Change and Institutional Watershed Water Scheme Land Use Techniques System Environment Interventions Management (MUS) (RCT) al Flow Precision Agri- Climate Mulching Canal lining farming aquaculture change Subsidy Urbanization Water Special Water use Land Levelling harvesting Organic Hydroponic Loan waivers economic pattern structures farming horticulture zones (SEZ) Pressurized Environment Extent of Surface Support irrigation Reuse of al flow land Seeding price system Hybrid seeds urban effluent requirement degradation System of Other Rice Surge Horticultural governmenta Intensification irrigation systems l policies Irrigation Crop diversi- Bed Planting scheduling fication Deficit Livestock Zero Tillage irrigation system Reduced Rain-water Tillage harvesting Groundwater recharge methods
  58. 58. Intervention Matrix G. Specific Impact A. Location i. Agricultural impact Yield increase B. Coverage Quantity of water used (irrigation + rainfall) Cropping intensity C. Method Used Diversification (new crop) Fertiser, Herbicide use D. Primary Purpose ii. NR-Related impact Available soil moisture E. Financial Aspects Organic carbon content Groundwater recharge & quality F. Stake-holder Linkages Surface water replenishment & quality Sustainability iii. Livelihood-related impact Food security, Employment opportunity Poverty change, Drudgery for women, Migration, Impact on less-fortunate community
  59. 59. Intervention Ranking Using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) • Questionnaire Development: Multiple interventions selected • Ranking by Experts: Experts ranked interventions on a 10-point scale • Weight Assignments: Assigned ranks converted to weights by reversing order, i.e., rank 1 reordered as weight 10, rank 2 reordered as weight 9 and so on….
  60. 60. Resource Conservation Technologies: Productivity gains through efficient utilization of resources Zero tillage Laser land levelling Surface seeding Furrow irrigated-Raised bed planting
  61. 61. Levels of adoption 3.2 million hectares (24%) of 13.5 million hectares of rice-wheat area RCT Area adopted (ha) 2001 2002 2003 Zero tillage 2,08,742 5,61,033 11,56,210 Bed planting 4,706 6,993 35,000 Surface seeding 10,723 11,117 20,000
  62. 62. The “Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act”, 2009 “Not to sow paddy before May 10” and “not to transplant before June 10” Regulation to check falling groundwater tables Groundwater storage varied in northwestern India between 2002 and 2008, relative to the mean for the period. These deviations from the mean are expressed as the height of an equivalent layer of water, ranging from -12 cm (deep red) to 12 cm (dark blue). Credit: NASA/Trent Schindler and Matt Rodell
  63. 63. ET gains by delaying transplanting date of Paddy 100 90 80 Gain in ET, mm 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 8-May 15-May 22-May 29-May 5-Jun 12-Jun Date Amritsar Bathinda Faridkot Fatehgarh Firozpur Gurdaspur Hoshiarpur Jalandhar Kapurthala Ludhiana Mansa Moga Muktsar Nawanshahr Patiala Rupnagar Sangrur ET demand reduced by 1.8, 2.4, 3.5, 6.1, 8.6 and 9.3% through shifting of transplanting dates by 1 to 6 weeks. Saving in GW draft: 7.2%; Total pumping hours saved: 31 M/ 175 M KWh
  64. 64. Outputs from Intervention Analysis 1. Identification and analysis of potential interventions for improving water productivity in the Indus- Gangetic basin: ( R singh, NS Raghuvanshi….et al) 2. Challenges and Prospects of Sustainable Groundwater Management in the Indus- Gangetic Basin: Review and Case Studies ( Bharat Sharma) 3. Improving water productivity in the Indus basin: A review of approaches and strategies: ( A S Qureshi, W Ahmad) 4. The Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act (2009): Impact of a regulatory mechanism for saving water ( Bharat Sharma, G Ambili)
  65. 65. WP6: Knowledge Management, Impact • Setting up of Project website, materials on PBwiki • Creation and management of databases • Awareness among policy makers and farming communities, participation in Conferences • Number of publication completed and in progress, Policy briefs planned
  66. 66. Summary: BFP IGB .till date • IGB is a complex basin with poverty and water gradients towards east and productivity towards west. • Where water availability is not a constraint, poverty reduction is possible through improvements in land productivity. • Where water availability is a constraint, increasing value of productivity per unit of water can reduce poverty. • WP of wheat and rice is high in Indus but unsustainable; Ganges basin has both water, inputs and infrastructure constraints. Climate change shall have serious impacts for both basins and more so for Ganges due to higher vulnerability. • There are attractive physical interventions which need to be up scaled with suitable policy and institutional support, water and energy policies are inter- related; innovative fisheries and integrated farming models has good potential for the poor eastern IGB. NEED TO THINK AND PLAN FOR MUCH LARGER IMPACT THROUGH CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT POSSIBLY THROUGH SECOND PHASE GANGES BASIN PROJECT AND OTHER RELATED PROJECTS.