This study examined the relationship between medication adherence and future healthcare costs using pharmacy claims data. It found that increased medication adherence, as measured by compliance and persistence, was associated with lower total future healthcare costs. The study also found that using a boosted regression model that incorporated medication adherence measures provided similar or better predictive accuracy for future healthcare costs compared to other econometric models. However, overfitting was an issue with the boosted regression model that would need to be addressed through parameter respecification.

1. More Predictive Modeling of Total Healthcare Costs Using Pharmacy Claims Data: Adherence Dimension and Boosted Regression M. Christopher Roebuck & Joshua N. Liberman American Society of Health Economists Inaugural Conference Madison, Wisc. June 6, 2006

10. Results Descriptive statistics

11. Results Adherence dimension coefficient estimates from OLS model of prospective total annual healthcare costs (untruncated)

12. Results Adherence dimension coefficient estimates from OLS model of prospective total annual healthcare costs (truncated at $50,000)

13. Results Validation sample summary results from predictive models of prospective total annual healthcare costs (untruncated) * Mean absolute prediction error

14. Results Validation sample summary results from predictive models of prospective total annual healthcare costs (truncated at $50,000)