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Basics of Macroeconomic Policies  Sy Sarkarat, Ph. D. United States Fulbright Scholar for Azerbaijan State Economics University , Baku,  Azerbaijan. Fall 2008 Copy Rights:  This lecture was prepared to CRRC  and it is designed for educational  purpose not for profit.
Warming up ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Business Cycle Trough Peak Peak Peak Trough REAL GDP (units per time period) TIME Growth trend
Macro Equilibrium PRICE LEVEL (average price) REAL OUTPUT (quantity per year) D 1 S 1 Q E P E Aggregate demand Aggregate supply P 1 E
Macro Failures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An Undesired Equilibrium PRICE LEVEL (average price) Q E P E Aggregate demand Aggregate supply E Equilibrium output Full-employment output Q F P* F
Stable or Unstable? ,[object Object],[object Object],Adam Smith 1723 –1790
The Business Cycle in U.S. History Korean War World War II Vietnam War Great  Depression Source: U.S. Bureau of the census, The Statistics of the U.S.A. Growth recession Long-term average growth (3%) Recession
Inflation and Unemployment: 1900-1940 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.  24 20 16 12 8 4 0 –  4 –  8 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 Inflation Unemployment
Macro Disturbances AS 0 PRICE LEVEL (average price) REAL OUTPUT (quantity per year) ( b ) Demand shifts AD 0 AD 0 AS 0 PRICE LEVEL (average price) REAL OUTPUT (quantity per year) ( a ) Supply shifts F P* Q F AD 1 F P* Q F AS 1 G P 1 Q 1 P 2 Q 2 H
The Keynesian Revolution ,[object Object],[object Object],1885 -1942
Government Intervention ,[object Object]
Fiscal Stimulus Package  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Multiplier ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Multiplier Process 1. $100 billion in unsold goods appear 3. Income reduced by $100 billion 4. Consumption reduced by $75 billion 5. Sales fall $75 billion 6. Further cutbacks in employment or wages 7. Income reduced by $75 billion more 8. Consumption reduced by $56.25 billion more Factor markets Product markets Business firms Households 9. And so on 2. Cutbacks in employment or wages
Fiscal Policy ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Multiplier Cycles
The Multiplier
Monetary Theories ,[object Object],[object Object],Milton Friedman  1912 –2006)
Monetary Stimulus ,[object Object],[object Object]
Investment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monetary Tools ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monetary Policy - Last Two Recessions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
List of the rate cuts and a rebound in GDP growth:  from the start of the rate cut cycle to a rebound  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Limits on Monetary Restraint ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Constraints on Monetary Stimulus Inelastic demand  Investment demand Rate Of Investment  7 6 0 Interest Rate  Inelastic investment demand can also impede monetary policy A liquidity trap can stop interest rates from falling The liquidity trap Interest Rate  E 1 E 2 g 1 g 2 Quantity Of Money  Demand for money
Shifts of Aggregate Supply AS 2 E 2 Rightward AS shifts reduce unemployment and inflation  AS 1 E 1 Output (real GDP per period)  0 Price Level (average price per unit of output)  AD
Instability ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
Aggregate Supply ,[object Object],[object Object]
Supply-Side Theories ,[object Object],[object Object]
Supply-Side Theories AD 0 AS 0 REAL OUTPUT (quantity per year) PRICE LEVEL (average price) Q 3 P 3 Q F E 0 P 0 AS 1 E 3
Supply-Side Policy ,[object Object],[object Object],Jean-Baptiste Say 1767-1832
Changes in Marginal Tax Rates Since 1915
 
 
 
Consumer Confidence
 
 
Financial Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Domestic Issues in Crisis Avoidance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
New Deal - Shock Treatment Jumpstart the Economy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Example ,[object Object]

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Macroeconomics Policies

  • 1. Basics of Macroeconomic Policies Sy Sarkarat, Ph. D. United States Fulbright Scholar for Azerbaijan State Economics University , Baku, Azerbaijan. Fall 2008 Copy Rights: This lecture was prepared to CRRC and it is designed for educational purpose not for profit.
  • 2.
  • 3. The Business Cycle Trough Peak Peak Peak Trough REAL GDP (units per time period) TIME Growth trend
  • 4. Macro Equilibrium PRICE LEVEL (average price) REAL OUTPUT (quantity per year) D 1 S 1 Q E P E Aggregate demand Aggregate supply P 1 E
  • 5.
  • 6. An Undesired Equilibrium PRICE LEVEL (average price) Q E P E Aggregate demand Aggregate supply E Equilibrium output Full-employment output Q F P* F
  • 7.
  • 8. The Business Cycle in U.S. History Korean War World War II Vietnam War Great Depression Source: U.S. Bureau of the census, The Statistics of the U.S.A. Growth recession Long-term average growth (3%) Recession
  • 9. Inflation and Unemployment: 1900-1940 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 – 4 – 8 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 Inflation Unemployment
  • 10. Macro Disturbances AS 0 PRICE LEVEL (average price) REAL OUTPUT (quantity per year) ( b ) Demand shifts AD 0 AD 0 AS 0 PRICE LEVEL (average price) REAL OUTPUT (quantity per year) ( a ) Supply shifts F P* Q F AD 1 F P* Q F AS 1 G P 1 Q 1 P 2 Q 2 H
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. The Multiplier Process 1. $100 billion in unsold goods appear 3. Income reduced by $100 billion 4. Consumption reduced by $75 billion 5. Sales fall $75 billion 6. Further cutbacks in employment or wages 7. Income reduced by $75 billion more 8. Consumption reduced by $56.25 billion more Factor markets Product markets Business firms Households 9. And so on 2. Cutbacks in employment or wages
  • 16.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Constraints on Monetary Stimulus Inelastic demand Investment demand Rate Of Investment 7 6 0 Interest Rate Inelastic investment demand can also impede monetary policy A liquidity trap can stop interest rates from falling The liquidity trap Interest Rate E 1 E 2 g 1 g 2 Quantity Of Money Demand for money
  • 27. Shifts of Aggregate Supply AS 2 E 2 Rightward AS shifts reduce unemployment and inflation AS 1 E 1 Output (real GDP per period) 0 Price Level (average price per unit of output) AD
  • 28.
  • 29.  
  • 30.  
  • 31.  
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34. Supply-Side Theories AD 0 AS 0 REAL OUTPUT (quantity per year) PRICE LEVEL (average price) Q 3 P 3 Q F E 0 P 0 AS 1 E 3
  • 35.
  • 36. Changes in Marginal Tax Rates Since 1915
  • 37.  
  • 38.  
  • 39.  
  • 41.  
  • 42.  
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.