There is a trap hidden inside Lean Startup's CustDev cycle. If entrepreneurs want to be successful, they have to be passionate about their ideas. They need to understand more about their customers than anyone else. I’ve spent the last year lecturing to and teaching entrepreneurs and I've observed that their passion for their idea and their belief that they already DO know everything about their customers can prevent them from actually LEARNING what they need to know in order to create as successful business. The same passion and positive psychology required to succeed in the face of uncertainty is hindering them from learning fast enough to survive.
How can we take our passion, our vision, a couple “wild ass guesses”, and produce meaningful, validated learning?
The question of how to learn as an organization and how to DEMONSTRATE learning has been explored by philosophers of science and by business theorists for years. What can the Lean Startup Community learn about creating scientifically valid experiments that create actionable knowledge?
Learn how to fail well and fail faster by keeping your passion focused on the vision and our dispassionate logic focused on the assumptions.
7. @cyetain
Learning occurs when we
detect and correct error. Error is
any mismatch between what
we intend an action to produce
and what actually happens
when we implement that action.
-Chris Argyris
8. @cyetain
How Do We Make Better Choices?
Why is it so hard to Fail?
Could we design a system to help?
9. @cyetain
One must treat his theory-in-
use as both a psychological
certainty and an intellectual
hypothesis.
-Chris Argyris
10. @cyetain
How wonderful that we have
met with a paradox. Now we
have some hope of making
progress.
-Niels Bohr
14. @cyetain
3 Things To Leave With
• Failing Well Produces more Information than
Failing Poorly
• “Passionate Beliefs, Loosely Held”
• Reducing Variability too, Soon risks
suboptimal result, too Late increases Failure
blindness
15. @cyetain
We simply cannot rely on
randomness to correct
the problems that
randomness creates.
-Don Reinertsen
22. @cyetain
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
PotentialInformation
Greater Asserted
Information
Greater Asserted
Information
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
Ideas
23. @cyetain
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
PotentialInformation
Greater Asserted
Information
Greater Asserted
Information
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
Ideas
Uncomfortable
Confident
26. @cyetain
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
PotentialInformation
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
IdeasHidden
Risk
Hidden
Value
The Line of SURPRISE!
27. @cyetain
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
PotentialInformation
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
IdeasHidden
Risk
Hidden
Value
1
2
3
During Customer Development Focus on Interesting Ideas
Before Scaling Validate Your "We Know This Assumptions" to
reduce risk of Failure Demand
After Customer Validation Run experiments to Validate Assumptions of Failure
2
3
1
28. @cyetain
“The typical sequence of coin
tosses has high information
content but little value; an
ephemeris, giving the
positions of the moon and
planets every day for a
hundred years, has no more
information than the
equations of motion and
initial conditions from which
it was calculated, but saves
it’s owner the effort of
recalculating these positions.”
-Charles H. Bennett
29. @cyetain
Based on what we know
right now, what problems
do we have the least
amount of information
about that we can
reasonably expect to
understand?
34. @cyetain
Justified MVP
Value of Information
Cost of Acquisition
Cost of MVP
Unjustified
MVP
Over Justified
MVP
Justified
MVP
35. @cyetain
The first principle is that
you must not fool
yourself--and you are the
easiest person to fool.
-Richard Feynman
36. @cyetain
“Most people don’t know how to
learn. What’s more, those
members of the organization that
many assume to be the best at
learning are, in fact, not very
good at it. I am talking about the
well-educated, high-powered, high
commitment professionals”
-Chris Argyris
45. @cyetain
Be as "rational" as possible
-- by which people mean
defining clear objectives and
evaluating their behavior in
terms of whether or not
they have achieved them
49. @cyetain
whenever we propose a
solution to a problem, we
ought to try as hard as we
can to overthrow our solution,
rather than defend it.
-Karl Popper
50. @cyetain
• Identify Your Assumptions and Conclusions
CLEARLY AS POSSIBLE PUBLICLY
• Question Your Assumptions and Conclusions
• Seek Contrary Data
• Learn when to correct your Actions and
when to correct your Mindset
54. @cyetain
[Abduction] goes upon the hope that
there is sufficient affinity between the
reasoner's mind and nature's to render
guessing not altogether hopeless,
provided each guess is checked by
comparison with observation... The
effort should therefore be to make
each hypothesis... as near an even bet
as possible.
-Charles Peirce
66. @cyetain
How Would I Validate my
understanding of this
problem?
How Would I
solve this
Problem?
•Based on your experiences, what
would you do to solve this
problem? This is your Hypothesis.
•Identify What Needs to Be True if
your Hypothesis is true.
•Assert, Presume, Assume Truth
•Imagine Experiments that would
justify the Assumptions
67. @cyetain
I Assert that this I
know this
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
PotentialInformation
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
Ideas
I Presume
Somebody
knows this
I am going to Assume
this is true for my
Hypothesis to be true
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
PotentialInformation
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
Ideas
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
PotentialInformation
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
Ideas
68. @cyetain
This is my Hypothesis,
Assumptions and
Experiments
Challenge
Assumptions &
Experiments
Rotate Pairs 2-3 Times
Allow Time for Revision Between Rounds