1. Emergency Preparedness
- State of the Art -
David Alexander
University College London

2. Plan of this lesson:-
Objective: to examine trends
and developments in emergency
management with respect to....
• organisation of the sector
• counter-terrorism
• information in emergencies
• humanitarian relief.

3. Organisation

4. Synonyms and approximations
Resilience

5. Population
(community) Plans,
protection procedures,
protocols
Disaster risk
reduction
Hazard
forecasting, Human
monitoring, Incident and material
etc. management resources

6. Knowledge
Knowledge of
of hazards
community
and their
vulnerability
impacts
DRR
Knowledge
of coping
Disaster capacity and
Risk resilience
Reduction

7. International
Catastrophe
National
Disaster
Major incident
Regional
Municipal
Incident
...but there are no quantitative definitions...

8. Some characteristics of large emergencies
• events that cannot be managed
with normal resources
• 90% of emergencies do not
require special procedures
• 10% require a qualitative change
in management techniques
• the context of risk and vulnerability
can transform an incident into a disaster.

9. Hazard
monitoring &
Disaster forecasting
management
Policies
Major Plans Human &
incident Procedures material
management Protocols resources
Incident
management
Population
(community)
protection

10. Partly after Major
Incidents Disasters Catastrophes
Tierney (2008) incidents
Very Generally Widespread Extremely
Impact
localised localised and severe large
Inter- Major
Local Some mutual
Response governmental international
efforts assistance
response response
Standard Emergency Emergency Plans
Plans and
operating plans plans fully potentially
procedures
procedures activated activated overwhelmed
Interregional Local
Local Some outside
Resources transfer of resources
resources assistance
resources overwhelmed
Public Very little Mainly not Public very Extensively
involvement involvement involved involved involved
Very few Few Major Massive
Recovery
challenges challenges challenges challenges

11. Local incident Local response A
Threshold of local capacity
Small regional
Co-ordinated local response B
incident
Threshold of intermunicipal capacity
Major regional Intermunicipal and
B
incident regional response
Threshold of regional capacity
National Intermunicipal, regional
C
disaster and national response
Threshold of national capacity
International Ditto, with more
C
catastrophe international assistance

12. International:
exchange and support
Nation: policies of
Volontary compatibility, harmonisation
sector: and co-ordination
support and
integration Province, region, state, county:
co-ordination, assistance
Private Municipality or other local
sector: authority: emergency operations
integration
Disaster

13. Micro- Single
emergency municipality
A hierarchy
Meso- Several
municipalities
of emergency
emergency
Macro- Regional
plans
emergency coordination
Disaster or National
catastrophe coordination

14. Emergency preparedness
has reached a
crossroads....

15. A new class
Natural:
earthquakes,
Technological:
toxic spills,
floods, transportation
landslides, etc. crashes, etc.
Forms of
disaster
Social: Intentional:
riots, mass acts of
of disaster?
gatherings,
demonstrations
terrorism

16. "Civil Civil
contingencies" protection The
management security
industry
Emergencies
and disasters
"Homeland Business
security" continuity
Complex management
emergencies

17. Civil protection:
What are the what degree of What role for
limits of civil political support? the security
contingencies industry in
management? the general
emergency?
Emergencies
Homeland and disasters
What
security:
relationship
is reduction
of business
in civil liberties
continuity
acceptable?
Complex emergencies: management
How much aid from with civil
donor countries? authorities?

18. Natural Anthropogenic
Techno- Inten-
Natural Social
logical tional
disasters disasters
disasters disasters
Civil
defence
Civil
protection
Civil contingencies
and Resilience
"Homeland
Security"

19. Civil Defence
Business Military
assistance
continuity to civilian
management communities
Private
Volunteer
sector Government
organisations
businesses
Privatised
public
services
Civil Protection

20. CRISIS
OPERATIONS
REPUTATION (ACHIEVEMENTS)
Perception Concrete
developments
• positive
Communication
• negative

21. Civil contingencies
Business Civil Civil
continuity protection defence
management
Resilience
The risk environment

22. Paramilitary forces PMF
(National Guard)
PF MF
Police Military
forces forces
Italy
Fire Public FB PA
brigades administrations CVF
Civilian volunteer PMF
PMF forces PF MF
PF MF
USA UK
FB PA FB PA
CVF CVF

23. Military Civilian
Armed Civil administration
forces Volunteers (civil society)
Emergency services
(army)
[residual role]
Civil defence Civil protection
Command and control Co-ordination
and co-operation
Chain of command Autonomy

24. Effects of natural
disasters on
technological capital
Natural Technological
disasters disasters
Effects of
technology on
Technological
vulnerability to
of acts of
terrorism
natural disasters
component
Some links
Social conditions
as factors that
incubate
Social Intentional
dissidence
disasters disasters

25. Counter terrorism

26. Homeland security
• the age of CBRN?
• civil protection with a
more restricted scope?
• emergency planning dominated
by counter-terrorism preparations
• the resurgence of civil defence
• secrecy: "the public
does not need to know".

27. Creation of the Department of Homeland
Security was the greatest reorganisation
of the US Federal Government since 1947
About 2000 US universities have opened
centres for the study of terrorism,
bioterrorism, CBRN or similar subjects
However, the US Federal Government has
not reduced the number of declarations of
natural disaster or states of emergency
from the 45-75 per year that was the
average before 11 September 2001.

28. 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
From 1980 to 1998 in the USA
there were 455 Presidential
declarations of disaster as a result
of hurricanes, floods and earthquakes.

29. Terrorism is a form of
teleological disaster (i.e., piloted)
• it is potentially infinitely mutable
• designing remedies is a
very expensive process
• the scenarios are highly debatable.

30. EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyo
attack in the Toyko subway with
the nerve gas Sarin (1995):
• 12 dead
• 4900 people went to
hospital, of whom...
• about 1000 were genuinely injured
• ...about 3900 were suffering from
MIPS - multiple ideopathic physical
symptoms: i.e., hypochondria.

31. The principal effect
of terrorism on the
general public
could be, not any direct
involvement of people
in an incident, but
the disruption of
normal daily life...
...with huge costs to society.

32. In the case of an attack with chemical
weapons these aspects of decontamination
protocols are highly debatable:
• the chemical agents employed
to neutralise toxic substances
• the question of whether to take
off clothes before being treated
• the decontamination techniques
utilised in relation to the
identification of the toxic substance
• how many people can be decontaminated
realistically per unit time.

33. Armed aggression
on the part of states Natural disasters
Civil defence Civil protection
"Homeland security" "Civil contingencies"
(civil defence) (resilience)
Armed aggression
"Generic" disasters
on the part of
groups of dissidents

34. Emergency management:
an evolutionary approach
Civil defence...............Civil protection
Proxy Participatory
Command and control Collaboration
Vertical chain Task forces
of command Population consulted
Population excluded and included
Law and order Problem solving
Secrecy Openness

35. Counter-terrorism activity
Organisation Stockpiling
• procedures • equipment
• event scenarios • supplies
• emergency plans
Intelligence Training
• collection • plan dissemination
• interpretation • exercises
• warning
Involvement of civil protection
Surveillance Analysis
• automatic (CCTV) • laboratory
• manual (personnel) • forensic

36. Information (1):
how emergencies
are perceived

37. Shortage of Excess of
information information
Deficit
Information Surplus
critical
but lacking
Impact of disaster Time

38. Events can be
subject to different
interpretations...
• in the World Trade Center collapse 500
of the victims were aliens, some
without visas and US residency permits
• in the Bam earthquake many residents
dug frantically among the ruins of their
homes ....
trying to recover staches of heroin etc.
More realism and less image is needed.

39. But public
perception
of disasters
continues to be
dominated by
myths and
inaccuracies
enthusiastically
propagated by
the mass media.

40. "Myth" no. 1:
In general terms, disasters
are truly exceptional events.

41. "Myth" no. 2:
Disasters kill people without respect
to differences of social class.

42. "Myth" no. 3:
Hiding under desks offers good
protection if there is an earthquake.

43. What is self-protective behaviour?
• roll up into a corner?
• get under a doorway?
• don't rush out all together
• avoid falling objects
• protect your head, neck and back
• ....or what?

44. "Myth" no. 4:
Trapped people survive for many days
under the rubble of collapsed buildings.

45. Percentage of people brought out
alive from under collapsed builings
0
50
100
10.5
Hours
3
12
1
Survival time
Days
2 3 4 5 7 10 15

46. Bam, Iran
In the Bam
quake (26.12.03)
1600 rescuers
Dicembre 2003 from 43 nations
saved only
30 people.
It was not an unusual situation....

47. Technical rescue
should not be
imported from
The solution: far away.
• encourage the formation of
local search-and-rescue groups
in the areas of major risk
• promote the transfer of
technology and training
• international twinning of SAR groups.

48. "Myth" no. 5:
Disasters cause a great deal of chaos and
thus cannot be managed systematically.

49. "Myth" no. 6:
Usually, the first assistance in disaster
is supplied by the emergency services.

50. "Myth" no. 7:
When a disaster occurs there is usually
a shortage of resources and for this
reason the event cannot be managed well.

51. "Myth" no. 8:
When disasters occur people should
donate used clothes.

52. "Myth" no. 10:
When disaster happens,
people tend to panic.

53. Terrorism: a climate of fear....
Many eminent people in prominent
positions in public life (top civil servants,
politicians, scientists, police chiefs, etc.)
have given the mass media their opinions
on the probable behaviour of the
general public during a disaster,
opinions absolutely without any foundation
of research in the social sciences
(sociology, social psychology, etc.).

54. "Myth" no. 11:
People will flee in large numbers
from a disaster area.

55. "Myth" no. 12:
After disaster has struck, people
tend to be dazed and apathetic.

56. "Myth" no. 13:
Disasters commonly give rise to
spontaneous manifestations of antisocial,
behaviour, such as outbreaks of looting.
Instead we have the therapeutic community

57. "Myth" no. 14:
Unburied dead bodies constitute a
health hazard and will contaminate
water supplies.

58. The mass media continually state that the
presence of unburied bodies after disaster
can and will cause disease epidemics.

59. "Myth" no. 15:
Spraying bodies, rubble
and survivors with disinfectant
stops the spread of disease.

60. "Myth" no. 16:
Disease epidemics are a very common
result of the disruption and poor health
caused by major disasters.

61. "Myth" no. 17:
Field hospitals are useful for
the treatment of the injured.

62. "Myth" no. 18:
Great quantities and assortments of
medicines should be sent to disaster areas.

63. "Myth" no. 19:
Anthrax is a white powder.

64. "Myth" no. 20:
Technology will save the world
from disasters.

65. Toulouse
21 September 2001
Explosion in a nitrogen fertilizer factory
• 12 dead, 180 injured (30 seriously)
• major damage over a 5 km radius
• toxic cloud of ammonia
The factory that exploded
was situated next to
another that made
space rocket fuel !!!

66. "Myth" no. 21:
Tsunamis are tidal waves.

67. "Myth" no. 22:
Earthquake magnitude is always
measured on the Richter scale.

68. "Myth" no. 23:
There is such a thing as
"earthquake weather".

69. Our image of disasters is conditioned
far too much by Hollywood!

70. Obligation Editorial
to inform independence
the public and freedom
Mutual
Emergency antipathy Representatives
and disaster or of the mass
managers collaborative media
relationship?
Public information
Sales and ratings;
centres; warnings
reputation;
and alerts;
revenue from
informing the
advertising
relatives of victims

71. Feedback
Call
Civil centre The
protection general
Direct
service communication
public
Press
conferences,
communiques Consumer
relations
The
mass
Feedback
media

72. Information 2:
role of
technology
in the
management
of information

73. Wisdom: ability to make decisions
on the basis of principles,
experience and knowledge
Knowledge: understanding of how
things function (or should function)
Information: description of
physical and social situations
Data: basic facts and statistics
COMMUNICATION

74. Old ideas...
• rigid structure
• hierarchy
• military doctrine
• secrecy
• cordon
• command and control
• security
• civil defence.

75. New ideas...
• planning
• collaboration
• flexible, adaptable management
• limited "span of control"
• information sharing
• IT support
• accredited journalists
• involving the public
• civil protection.

76. Some effects of
the information
and communications
technology revolution
• flattening of the chain of command
• IT support for disaster response
• overload of information delivery systems
• artificiality and isolation
from the reality on the ground
• the emergency manager must study
new ways to inform himself and others.

77. Emergency
manager
input and consultation
Display and
analysis technology
Ability to
analyse data
Predictive data analysis circuit
models
of events Data
banks
data
emergency
Disaster
management
relief
circuit

78. Technology
as a source of
risk reduction
Benign Ceaseless
development
Malignant of technology
Technology as Technology
an inadvertent as a deliberate
source of risk source of risk
Risk
Cultural
management
filter
practices

79. Humanitarian
relief

80. 'Complex emergencies': situations of
political, economic and military collapse
and damage to the fabric of society
Aceh (Indonesia)
Afghanistan Kenya
Africa meridionale Kosovo e i Balcani
Angola Liberia
Burundi Pakistan settentrionale
Cecenia Palestina e Israele
Colombia Rwanda
Corea del Nord Sierra Leone
Eritrea e Ethiopia Somalia
Grandi Laghi Africani Sri Lanka
Haiti il Sudan
Il Caucaso Timor Orientale
Iraq Uganda

81. The "complex emergencies":-
• around the world are about 25
• 60 million refugees and 25 million
internally displaced persons (IDPs)
• the gap between rich
and poor is widening
• powerful interests direct global
traffic in arms, people and drugs
• increasing dilemma of neutrality
• increasing risk of revenge attacks.

82. The "Military Cross"
War and
conflict
Military assistance
Insecurity
Poverty
Vulnerability and
marginalisation
Humanitarian assistance
Natural
disasters

83. Science
Military Humanitarian
assistance assistance
Global Informal and
exploitation black economy
Creation "Capacity
of poverty, building":
marginalisation, creation of
precariousness resilience
The international community

84. Hijacking of
assistance
Justice Impartiality
Robbery
Total What
and rape
war future?
of victims
Relief Humanitarianism
Politicisation of
relief suppies

85. Conclusions

86. • losses in disaster will
continue to increase steeply
FUTUROLOGY
• poverty and vulnerability will define
ever more closely the areas of
greatest susceptibility to disasters
• at the world scale, one or more
great events will cause a drastic
reorganisation disaster preparedness
• the catalyst event may be a
volcanic eruption, an earthquake, or
a biological or radioactive incident.

87. Emerging risks...
Radio-
Great
active
geophysical
emissions
events:
volcanic
eruptions, Toxic
earthquakes, CBRN spills
extra-
terrestrial
Epidemics,
impacts, Pandemics epizoozics,
etc.
epiphytotics

88. In civil protection
history does tend
to repeat itself...

89. Lisbon earthquake,
1755, and New York
attacks, 2001

90. History can help us to
understand the present
and predict the future....
....it is a vital element
of planning scenarios.

91. • the job of the emergency manager
will become more and more complex
• emergency planning will have
to tackle new kinds of event
• emergency management will
very slowly become a profession
• the level of international
participation in disasters will rise.

92. SEVEN SCHOOLS
OF THOUGHT
Geography &
anthropology:
cultural (human) Sociology
anthropology
Physical &
construction HAZARD, Psychology
sciences & psychiatry
RISK &
DISASTER
STUDIES and perhaps
an eighth...
Disaster medicine
& epidemiology Economic &
financial studies
Criminal justice
Development and forensic
studies science

93. CONSTITUENT Earth & environmental sciences
DISCIPLINES Ecology
Geology
Atmospheric & water sciences (& Geomorphology)
Geophysics
Climatology (inc. Seismology) Construction sciences
Hydraulics Vulcanology
Hydrology Architecture
Meteorology Civil engineering
Geotechnical engineering
Structural engineering
Mechanical &
Information & HAZARD, electrical engineering
Computational communication RISK &
& analytical technology (ICT) DISASTER
Computer technology
sciences Remote sensing Cartography
Risk analysis (inc. Development studies
risk identification,
Epidemiology Economics
estimation, Nursing Geography, History
management & Nutrition Jurisprudence & legal stds
communication) Pharmacology Urban & regional planning
General medicine Mass media studies
Surgery & Psychology
emergency medicine Sociology
Public health, hygiene Social & spatial sciences
Health sciences & epidemiology
Veterinary sciences

94. Emergency management training and education
ANALYSIS
EX
HAZARD
ER
FIE ES
CIS
RIS MET
LD
K M HOD
ITIG S O
ATI F CON
ON C
CE
BASI
EMERGENCY
PT S
PLANNING
ND EM
Y A ION
R
VE UCT NG MA ERGE
O NA
EC STR NNI GE NCY
DIS CIO OLO
ORM UBLIC
R N ME
EME N
LA
SO YC H
NT
O P NT
NAG ATIO
EC PS
AS LOG GY
R
TE Y
P
R
INF
AN
MA
D

95. Research Experience
Certification
of competence
Emerging
Training
professional
programmes
figure
Recognition and
an institutional
role for the
Policies and professional figure Organi-
legislation sation

96. Emergency
Restoration of planning and
basic services organisation
of security
systems
Safety and
security
measures
Emergency Warning and
action and preparations;
damage damage
limitation prevention
measures measures

97. Mitigation
and risk Preparation
reduction and warning
Linkages
Recovery
Emergency
and
action
reconstruction
Integration
through planning

98. Planning Preparation
• scenarios • education & training
• risk analysis • exercises
• emergency plans • plan dissemination
• protocols • revision of plans
Organisation Resources
• comand structure • materials
• task forces • vehicles, equipment
• operations centres • communications
• communications • manpower

99. DEMAND CREATION
OF A NEW
CULTURE
OF CIVIL
POTENTIAL PROTECTION
NEEDS TO BE
EXPLOITED
SUPPLY

100. Government
Satisfaction paternalism
Social
Inclusive ...or... exclusion
outcomes
Public
participation in Discontent
decision making Discontent
(must be informed)

101. Sustainable emergency management:-
• is centred upon the local level
(but is harmonised from above)
• has the support and
involvement of the population
• is based on plans that are fully
disseminated and frequently revised
• is a fundamental, every-day service
for the population and is taken seriously.

102. emergency-planning.blogspot.com
www.slideshare.net/dealexander
David.Alexander@ucl.ac.uk