1. SCENARIO METHODOLOGY
FOR EMERGENCY PLANNING,
RESPONSE AND TRAINING
David Alexander
University College London

2. Basic definitions

3. What is an emergency scenario?
a reconstruction of past events
(what happened………?)
or...
a hypothetical exploration of future ones
(what if………?)

4. Definition:-
a logical progression of events in which the
most probable consequences are sought,
and they form the basis for further
developments as the scenario unfolds

5. Scenario: "a systemic method for thinking
creatively about possible complex and
uncertain futures. The central idea...
is to consider a variety of possible
futures that include many of the
important uncertainties in the system
rather than to focus on the accurate
prediction of a single outcome.
Peterson, G.D., G.S. Cumming and S.R. Carpenter
1993. Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an
uncertain world. Conservation Biology 17(2): 358-366.

6. Mitigation
Scenario methods for
disaster risk reduction
Hypothetical
scenarios
Hazard
Response Vulnerability
Risk
Impact

7. • a model simplifies reality in
order to make it understandable
• scenarios help bridge the gap between
theoretical studies and the need to
solve pressing practical problems.
Scenarios are a form of
communications model

8. Scenarios
in the risk
& disaster
cycle

9. Scenarios can be used for modelling
all phases of the 'disaster cycle'

10. Examples of the use of scenario methods
• mitigation: scenarios of vulnerability
of the built environment
• preparation: scenarios for
training of emergency personnel
• emergency response: warning
and evacuation scenarios
• recovery: economic planning
scenarios for recovery
• reconstruction: scenarios of economic
conditions of reconstruction.

11. • train risk and emergency planners
• assess vulnerability of
structures and communities
• learn lessons from past disasters.
Mitigation phase

12. • train emergency response personnel
• build conceptual models
of impacts and responses
• estimate performance of
monitoring and alarm equipment
• design warning and evacuation systems.
Preparedness phase

13. • study efficiency of emergency
responses and plans
• estimate efficacy of relief operations
• reconstruct past events to
debrief emergency personnel.
Emergency response phase

14. • predict magnitude and location
of damage in future disasters
• model post-disaster employment patterns
• model the social and economic
conditions of reconstruction
• plan financial aspects of reconstruction.
Recovery phase
Reconstruction phase

15. evolution
evaluation of
the progress
of the scenario
development
of the
scenario
evolution
historical
analysis
hypothetical
ingredients
time
zero
formal evaluation of the
outcome of the scenario
consequences
at time 2
consequences
at time 1
consequences
at time n
initial
conditions
reference
event
Scenario
methodology
in emergency
planning

16. How to build
scenarios

17. • impact of the disaster: size,
complexity, area involved
Fundamental elements of scenarios:-
• basic rules of operation: duration
of the scenario, timescales
• logistical factors
• dynamics of scenario development
• goals to be achieved: types of
responses and outcomes required
• complications and setbacks.

18. • a context of hazard, vulnerability, risk
• a reference event
it occurs at time zero
what, where, when and who?
• impacts and reactions
possibility of secondary hazards.
Ingredients of an emergency scenario
the basic "building blocks"

19. • ground rules
• basic logistical factors
• the roles of participants
• the objectives they should try to reach
• complicating factors or setbacks.
Ingredients of an emergency scenario
the basic "building blocks"

20. • the nature and impact of the disaster
- size, complexity, area involved
• basic rules of operation
- duration of the scenario
- timescales
• basic logistical factors.
Fundamental elements
of emergency scenarios

21. •
Fundamental elements
of emergency scenarios
• roles of participants
- number and type of roles
- degree of interaction
between participants
• objectives to be reached
- type of response required
from participants
• complications and setbacks.

22. Emergency
Planning
Scenarios

23. Emergency Disaster Catastrophe
Scenarios for emergency planning
- fundamental concepts -
(Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure)
Resilience
= Risk
[ → Impact → Response]

24. • a context of hazard,
vulnerability and risk
• their intensities and their
geographical expression
• a minimum of necessary information
regarding the starting situation
- boundary conditions
• the reference event.
Scenarios for emergency planning
- ingredients -

25. • carefully specified consequences
• a chain of consequences
- impacts and reactions
- secondary hazards
• a logical explication of
the chain of consequences.
Scenarios for emergency planning
- ingredients -

26. Scenarios for emergency planning
- ingredients -
• careful examination of all assumptions
on which developments are based
• testing of assumptions
• gauging of the effectiveness of
particular remedial measures.

27. • Description of local hazards
- hazard scenarios
• Vulnerability and risk
analysis for the local area
- vulnerability and risk scenarios
• Legal and jursdictional responsibilities
- mutual aid scenarios.
Emergency planning scenarios
- basic structure of an emergency plan -

28. Basic structure of an emergency plan
• Local emergency resource audit
- personnel, equipment,
vehicles, materials, supplies
• Command system specifications
- structures, communications, hierarchies
• Emergency procedures
(all-hazards or single hazard)
- emergency response scenarios
• Provisions for testing, disseminating
and updating the plan
- emergency exercise scenario.

29. • warning systems
• preparations to make before the impact
• evacuation procedures
• command chains and centres
• communications systems.
Elements of the planning scenarios

30. Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, Nov. 1985:
the worst failure of warning processes
in modern times.

31. Nevado del Ruiz, 13 November 1985
• a nocturnal phreatic eruption
with attenuated precursors
• 23,000 dead in lahars (mudflows),
most in the town of Armero
• a hazard map had been made
• the volcano was heavily instrumented
• there was a failure of communication
between scientists, civil authorities
and the general public.

32. • search and rescue
• medical and mortuary services
(mass-casualty management)
• maintenance of public order
• public information services
• recovery of infrastructure
and basic services.
Elements of the planning scenarios

33. Plan
Apparent
chaos Model
Testing
Disaster
Result
Feedback
and revision
Feedback
and
revision
Evalutation

34. What is vulnerability?
• the possible magnitude of losses
• the potential for disruption or harm
• the reverse of capability,
coping, adaptation and resilience
• different by sector: structural,
economic, social, commercial, etc.
Constructing scenarios of vulnerability

35. Scenarios in
emergency training

36. INSTRUCTION
THEORETICAL
KNOWLEDGE
PRACTICAL
EXPERIENCE
PRACTICAL
TRAINING
SCENARIO
METHODOLOGY

37. INFORMATION DISSEMINATION
TRAINING & EXERCISING
EDUCATION
ABILITY

38. Broad professional training
in emergency management
Professional experience
and training
Disciplinary training
(e.g. bachelor's degree)
Common
culture
Common
language
Common
objectives

39. • class discussions
• small-group discussions
• individual responses
written essay
oral presentation
draw maps or diagrams.
How to use scenarios in training

40. • use logic and realism in the
formulation of the problem
• ration information
• avoid hindsight
• mediate the solutions proposed
by members of the class
• encourage participants to consider
the effects of their own decisions.
When using scenarios for training

41. • illustrate essential concepts and problems
• learn how to interact with other people
• analyse consequences of
decisions and actions
• study evolution of emergency situations
• develop rapid reactions
to changing events.
The use of scenarios for
training emergency managers
• learn how to coordinate & manage events

42. • situations with:
- differences of opinion
- chronic uncertainty
- scarcity of resources
- things that go wrong
- information & task overload
• problems to solve in short timespans
Examples of the use of
scenarios in emergency training
• exercises for the:
- use of emergency messages
- emergency mapping of disaster areas.

43. Example of emergency cognitive
mapping of a flash-flood scenario
Alexander, D.E. 2004. Cognitive mapping as an
emergency management training exercise. Journal of
Crisis and Contingency Management 12(4): 150-159.

44. (12,100 meters)
km 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
70 cm
70 cm
7.5
m
SKETCH MAP
(not to scale)
NORTH
ENTRANCE
SOUTH
ENTRANCE
Province 'A' Province 'B'
MOUNT
INDOMITABLE
Highway
997
Fan
Hydrant, phone.etc.
Traffic light
Example of a sketch map to illustrate
a scenario of a tunnel fire disaster

45. The spectrum of emergency training methodologies
Few
participants Many
participants
One
role
One or
more
roles
More
roles
Many
roles
Delphic
questionnaire
Scenario
methodology
Game
simulation
Field
exercises

46. An Example:
Earthquake simulation, Florence, Italy

47. Vulnerability of
vernacular housing
(battering risk)

48. Vulnerability of
vernacular housing
(balcony collapse)

49. Vulnerability to
collapse of
regional hospital

50. Need to improve organisation
and command at site
of emergency operations

51. Need to set up a command post sooner

52. Dangers posed by poor organisation
and lack of incident command at site

53. Advance medical post not
set up at best location

54. Hospital triage and first aid
station was too small and cramped

55. Scenario modelling and assessment
enabled degradation of response capacity
to be modelled and 15 recommendations
to be made about improving performance.

56. Conclusions

57. Scenario-building in ten steps
• define objectives of scenario-building
• define components of scenario
• create reference event,
apply boundary conditions
• list trends, tendencies, constraints
• identify key uncertainties.

58. Scenario-building in ten steps
• use systems theory to create outcomes
• assess consistency and plausibility
• use numerical modelling where possible
• evaluate key uncertainties in scenario
• turn scenario into an operational,
decision-making tool for stakeholders.

59. The use of scenarios in risk and
disaster planning, management and
training can help solve a major problem...
...how to transform an academic
way of thinking into a practical way.

60. Alexander, D. 2000.
Scenario methodology for
teaching principles of
emergency management.
Disaster Prevention and
Management 9(2): 89-97.
Alexander, D. 2002.
Principles of Emergency
Planning and Management.
Oxford University Press,
New York, 365 pp.

61. david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
Presentations can be downloaded from:-
www.slideshare.com/dealexander
Thank you
for your
attention!