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Gilbert White Lecture, 2018, National Academy of Sciences

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Friday, December 7, 3:30 - 4:30 pm, 2018, The National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC
As sea surface temperatures rise, we are ever mindful of how this process fuels larger and more frequent storms and storm surges in the world’s oceans. These storms grab headlines, but also the attention of policy makers, if only briefly and often in a reactionary rather than prescriptive sense. In the United States, rarely are we focused on the U.S. Territories, where U.S. citizens and nationals are also deeply affected. This lecture discusses how we have yet to use past experiences in the U.S. Territories to fully enrich our knowledge of hazard adaptation and in ways that will improve our policy, practice, and decision-making. Available on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U89XhIHmF4k

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Gilbert White Lecture, 2018, National Academy of Sciences

  1. 1. 2018 Gilbert F. White Lecture Geographical Sciences Committee National Academy of Sciences December 7, 2018 Dawn J. Wright, Ph.D. Environmental Systems Research Institute (aka Esri) and Oregon State University A Turn to the Territories … featuring a Cautionary Tale of the 2009 American Samoa Tsunami
  2. 2. Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands Guam American Samoa CNMI
  3. 3. Index map courtesy of the National Park of American Samoa
  4. 4. Artwork by Jayne Doucette, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Index map courtesy of National Park of American Samoa
  5. 5. Tectonic Setting Convergence Rate Near Epicenter = 86 mm/yr (3.4 in) http://earthquake.usgs.gov Lay et al., 2009, AGU USGS
  6. 6. September 29, 2009 6:48 a.m. local time, M8.1 9 deaths in Tonga, 149 in Samoa, 39 in American Samoa Deadliest in history, $150 million damage Visualization from OSU Davey Jones Locker; Data from Sandwell and Smith, 1997, Estimated Bathymetry, v. 12.1, ve=6
  7. 7. Complex Bathymetry near Epicenter Wright et al., 2000
  8. 8. • occurred as a normal fault rupture on or near the outer rise of the subducting Pacific plate • normal fault solution consistent w/bathy; existing fault rather than plate bending • 14 m of slip on seafloor! M8.1 Rupture extended through entire crust Geist et al., 2009, AGU; Furlong et al., 2009, AGU; Lay et al., 2009, AGU Third largest normal quake ever on outer rise after: 1933 Sanriku, Japan - M8.4 1977 Sumba, Indonesia - M8.3 1917 Tonga – M8.3 - Last big quake to produce as large a tsunami The Earthquake GNS Science/U. of Otago, New Zealand
  9. 9. From gCaptain’s Tsunami Infographics, Best of the Web, http://gcaptain.com/maritime/blog/tsunami-info-graphics/ Tsunami Generation How a Tsunami Forms Height of the Wave
  10. 10. Tsunami Wave Simulation Eric Geist, USGS Menlo Park http://bit.ly/akKzYn
  11. 11. Tsunami Propagation NOAA PMEL
  12. 12. Historical Tsunami Propagation NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Real-Time Forecasting of Tsunamis (RIFT)
  13. 13. March 11, 2011
  14. 14. Tsunami Arrival & Inundation • initial drawdown • many waves, including reflections and sloshing Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Pago Pago Harbor Tide Gauge • 3 LARGE waves • wave period about 12 min
  15. 15. Eyewitness Accounts Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS • Earthquake shaking did not destroy buildings, tsunami did • Tsunami arrived 15-20 min after EQ • Second wave was the largest
  16. 16. Paul Anderson American Samoa Government Initial Tsunami Damage Maps
  17. 17. Real-Time Dashboard International Tsunami Survey Team | Data Collection Smart Forms Digital Map Books G • Eyewitness Accounts • Water Levels (beach, inland, runup) • Flow Directions • Inundation Distance • Topographic & Inland By Beach Profiles • Sediment Deposit, Paleo-Tsunami Data • Subsidence • Coastal Change Field Data Collectors, Apps Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS
  18. 18. Wave Heights, Runups, Inundation Distances Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Broken branches and debris in trees Interface between dead and living vegetation
  19. 19. Run-up = elevation at time of tsunami Measured Tsunami Run-Up Heights | North, West, and South Coasts Geist, USGS International Tsunami Survey Team
  20. 20. American Samoa Hazard Mitigation Plan of 2008 Wright et al., 2001 “Pago Pago Harbor could sustain the worst damage due to amplification of the tsunami by the narrowing of the channel.”
  21. 21. Damage at Pago Pago Harbor | First Major Wave … Photo by Gordon Yamasaki, NOAA
  22. 22. Damage at Pago Pago Harbor | First Major Wave … Photo by Gordon Yamasaki, NOAA
  23. 23. Damage at Pago Pago Harbor | That SECOND Wave! Photo by Gordon Yamasaki, NOAA
  24. 24. Inundation Distance = distance tsunami travels inland Estimated Run-Up Elevations, Inundation Distances | North and West Coasts Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Asili R=11 I=185m Maloata Bay R=5.5m I=180m Poloa R=11m I=70m Massacre Bay R=8.0m I=165m Fagafue Bay R=7.8m I=250m Tula R=5.5m I=235 Tafeu Cove R=10.5m I=30m Sliding Rock R=9 I=75m Polouta Beach R=9.5m I=35m Agapie Cove R=6m I=25m
  25. 25. Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Tula Low-lying coastal plain R = 5-7 m I = 230 m
  26. 26. Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Poloa Steep coast R = 11-12 m I = 70 m Entire village destroyed; no fatalities
  27. 27. Earthquake Emergency Research Institute
  28. 28. Ikonos High-Resolution Satellite Imagery | Useful in Assessing Tsunami Inundation June 18, 2009 Pre-tsunami Post-tsunami Sept 29, 2009 Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS
  29. 29. Ikonos High-Resolution Satellite Imagery | Useful in Assessing Tsunami Inundation June 18, 2009 Pre-tsunami Post-tsunami Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS measured inundation limit Sept 29, 2009
  30. 30. Factors Influencing Tsunami Inundation Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS • shape of coastline • coastal topography • coastal vegetation • bottom roughness in bays • nearshore bathymetry
  31. 31. Tutuila Island Topo-Bathy Model | Davey Jones Locker Lab, Oregon State U. Kyle Hogrefe, OSU M.S. Thesis Hogrefe, Wright, & Hochberg, Marine Geodesy, 2008; informed future NOAA NCEI Tsunami Inundation DEM
  32. 32. Deeper Bathymetric Compilations | Davey Jones Locker Lab, Oregon State U. Now in Esri Ocean Basemap
  33. 33. Reducing Losses in Future Tsunamis | Local Lessons Learned Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS Construct markers showing the inundation area Locate critical structures (hospitals, schools, …) out of inundation zone Plan reconstruction to include routes and paths to easily lead people to safe areas
  34. 34. Real-Time Dashboard Importance of Field Data Collection & Maintenance Smart Forms Digital Map Books G • Water Levels (beach, inland, runup) • Flow Directions • Inundation Distance • Topographic & Inland By Beach Profiles • Sediment Deposit, Paleo-Tsunami Data • Subsidence • Coastal Change Field Data Collectors, Apps Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS esriurl.com/puertorico
  35. 35. No Easy Solution to Reducing Risk | Local Lessons Learned Guy Gelfenbaum et al., USGS; Earthquake Engineering Research Institute The earthquake is the warning … Long-term planning is essential … Public education is key … Individuals must know what to do …
  36. 36. Community Engagement | Keeping Everyone Informed & Moving Forward • Coastal Mgmt Program • American Samoa (AS) GIS Users Group • National Park of AS • Dept of Marine & Wildlife Resources • Dept of Public Works • AS Power Authority • AS EPA • AS Community College • AS Historic Preservation Office
  37. 37. Jay Raskin, Ecola Architects and former mayor of Cannon Beach, OR
  38. 38. Map Product Templates for 1st Responders | What About Villages with NO Street Addresses? Harry Evans, UT; Christine Thies, City of Austin, TX Pre-planning flood maps Operation flood maps Strategic flood maps
  39. 39. Esri Disaster Response Program | Live Public Maps, Software, Workflows, Data, Tech Support www.esri.com/en-us/disaster-response/overview Humanitarian Response Pakistan United Nations World Food Programme Avalanche Forecasting Jackson Hole Earth Analytic Search and Rescue Dashboard Florida IAFC / NAPSG Evacuation Zones South Carolina Puerto Rico IAFC Damage Modeling Tracking Wildfires California FlameMapper Fire Modeling Fire Management USFS Flood Forecasting Russia Hydrometcentre River Modeling Texas FEMA Damage Assessment Italy Italian Civil Protection Department Sea Level Rise Massachusetts Stantec Preparedness US CUSEC
  40. 40. ArcGIS Online
  41. 41. esriurl.com/ocnstories
  42. 42. esriurl.com/ocnstories
  43. 43. disasterresponse.maps.arcgis.com esriurl.com/ocnstories
  44. 44. Dawn Wright Email: dwright@esri.com Twitter: @deepseadawn esriurl.com/gilbertwhite esriurl.com/scicomm “Fa’afetai tele lava”
  45. 45. Extra Slides
  46. 46. Community Portals Apps Story Maps Identities Performance Dashboards Policy Initiatives Initiative Framework • Government Leaders • Community Leaders • Universities • NGOs • Citizens Stakeholders Enabling Civic Participation Open Data Urban Planning Demographic Reporting Initiatives Performance Reporting Open Data Organizing and Leveraging Stakeholder Interactions Community Portal ArcGIS Hub | Is Transforming Community Engagement and Collaboration
  47. 47. Tsunami Warning Buoys Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis
  48. 48. Primary Data Acquisition: Shallow Multibeam sonar, 200 m and shallower Ikonos, shoreline to 15 m Portable pole-mounted EM3000 Ikonos satellite R/V Acoustic Habitat Investigator w/ RESON 8101
  49. 49. Primary Data Acquisition: Deep Multibeam sonar, regional scale, 200 m and deeper Image from Lost City Expedition (2003)

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