Go to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov) website and look at quarterly data from the last few years of the National Accounts. Can you make a decision of what part of the business cycle the U.S. economy is currently in? Why? What factors lead you to this conclusion? Please do not just copy and paste some random answer off the internet. I am looking for originality. Thank you. Solution GDP Report The 4th quarter showed a 2.6% increase in real GDP, lower than the 4- 5% rise for the 2nd and 3rd quarter (2014). This was below the estimates and was taken by the markets as a negative overall. Personal consumption expenditures grew at 4.3%, making it the biggest contributor to growth. Exports as well as private nonresidential fixed investment also contributed to the growth. Government spending saw a big decline. Although the growth is below the prior quarters, the economy did increase at a rate of 2.5% over the prior year. This is a respectable recovery period. Price trends The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics current release showed the CPI decreasing at the end of 2014 increasing the issue of downward price pressure.Not all of it can be however attributed to falling energy prices.Since the economy is recovering well, the pressure on Federal Reserve to normalize the monetary policy and start raising interest rates should come about  due to the concerns about inflation Now let us observe the relative price of the currencies. The real effective exchange rates for the Euro, Yen, Pound and Dollar show that the dollar and pound have appreciated sharply and the Yen has depreciated sharply. Labor market The labor market increased 252,000 jobs in December . In addition, there were big positive revisions to the last two months: 243k to 261k in October and 321k to 353k in November. Consumer credit This is one more sign of recovery .The Great Recession was different in many respects, yet a feature that stands out was the household debt and borrowing. The credit boom (late 1990s) had led many households to raise their reliance on debt for financing consumption and investment. The ratio of debt-to-income increased fro 0.6 in the 1980s to 1.2 in 2007. During the recession, both debt and borrowing dropped at rates never seen earlier as the unemployment rate had doubled. Debt-to-income now stands at 0.95 .

1. Go to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov) website and look at quarterly data from the
last few years of the National Accounts. Can you make a decision of what part of the business
cycle the U.S. economy is currently in? Why? What factors lead you to this conclusion?
Please do not just copy and paste some random answer off the internet. I am looking for
originality. Thank you.
Solution
GDP Report
The 4th quarter showed a 2.6% increase in real GDP, lower than the 4- 5% rise for the 2nd and
3rd quarter (2014). This was below the estimates and was taken by the markets as a negative
overall. Personal consumption expenditures grew at 4.3%, making it the biggest contributor to
growth. Exports as well as private nonresidential fixed investment also contributed to the growth.
Government spending saw a big decline.
Although the growth is below the prior quarters, the economy did increase at a rate of 2.5% over
the prior year. This is a respectable recovery period.
Price trends
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics current release showed the CPI decreasing at the end of 2014
increasing the issue of downward price pressure.Not all of it can be however attributed to falling
energy prices.Since the economy is recovering well, the pressure on Federal Reserve to
normalize the monetary policy and start raising interest rates should come about  due to the
concerns about inflation
Now let us observe the relative price of the currencies. The real effective exchange rates for the
Euro, Yen, Pound and Dollar show that the dollar and pound have appreciated sharply and the
Yen has depreciated sharply.
Labor market
The labor market increased 252,000 jobs in December . In addition, there were big positive
revisions to the last two months: 243k to 261k in October and 321k to 353k in November.

2. Consumer credit
This is one more sign of recovery .The Great Recession was different in many respects, yet a
feature that stands out was the household debt and borrowing. The credit boom (late 1990s) had
led many households to raise their reliance on debt for financing consumption and investment.
The ratio of debt-to-income increased fro 0.6 in the 1980s to 1.2 in 2007. During the recession,
both debt and borrowing dropped at rates never seen earlier as the unemployment rate had
doubled. Debt-to-income now stands at 0.95