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International Energy Outlook

International Energy Outlook

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International Energy Outlook

  1. 1. U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov International Energy Outlook 2014 For Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy September 22, 2014 | Washington, D.C. By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration
  2. 2. Key takeaways • IEO 2014 examines long-term global petroleum and other liquid fuels markets in this shortened IEO release • IEO2015 will return to full version • Three price scenarios examine a range of potential interactions of supply, demand, and prices in world liquids markets • The potential for tight/shale oil outside of the United States could add 3MMb/d by 2025 • EIA’s projection of Mexican oil production has risen in light of recent legislative changes Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 2
  3. 3. Results from the IEO2014 Reference case • World petroleum and other liquid fuels use increases by 38% between 2010 and 2040, all in the non-OECD • Developing Asia (including China and India) and the Middle East account for 85% of the increase • Increased demand requires 33 MMbbl/d of additional liquid fuels supplies to reach 119 MMb/d by 2040 – OPEC crude and lease condensate increases by 14 MMbbl/d – Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate increases by 10 MMbbl/d • Other liquid supplies (from NGPL, biofuels, CTL, GTL, and refinery gain) grow in importance, supplying 17% of total liquids production by 2040 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 3
  4. 4. The IEO2014 uses the same price paths as the AEO2014 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 North Sea Brent crude oil spot price 2012 dollars per barrel Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 4 projections history 2012 High Oil Price Reference Low Oil Price
  5. 5. All of the growth in liquid fuels consumption occurs in the emerging non-OECD nations 0 30 60 90 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption, 1990-2040 million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 5 projections history 2010 OECD Non-OECD
  6. 6. Non-OECD Asia and the Middle East account for 85% of the world’s growth in liquids consumption over the projection 0 20 40 60 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Europe and Eurasia Central and South America Africa Middle East Other Asia China non-OECD petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption, Reference case, 1990-2040 million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 6 projections history
  7. 7. China, India, and the Middle East lead liquids demand growth 0 5 10 15 20 25 China India Middle East United States OECD Europe Japan 2010 2025 2040 liquid fuels consumption, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 7 select OECD select non-OECD
  8. 8. China’s use of liquid fuels exceeds the United States by 2035 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 liquid fuels consumption in China and the United States, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 8 projections history 2010 United States China
  9. 9. Middle East use of liquids in the electric power sector declines, but still accounts for 12% of total consumption in 2040 0 3 6 9 12 2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Middle East liquid fuels consumption by end-use sector million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 9 Transportation Industrial Electric Power Other
  10. 10. 0 25 50 75 100 125 Demand Supply Low Oil Price case (low non-OECD demand) Demand Supply Reference case Demand Supply High Oil Price case (high non-OECD demand) Non-OECD OECD Supply composition changes more than demand across cases liquids consumption and production in three price cases, 2040 million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 10 Other Liquids Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate OPEC crude and lease condensate
  11. 11. Over the projection, OPEC crude and lease condensate suppliers produce an additional 14 MMbbl/d 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OPEC crude and lease condensate non-OPEC crude and lease condensate other liquid fuels petroleum and other liquid fuels production, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 11 projections history 43 33 12 53 46 20
  12. 12. Future growth in OPEC crude and lease condensate production is centered in the Middle East 0 7 14 21 28 35 Middle East North Africa West Africa South America 2010 2025 2040 OPEC crude and lease condensate production by region, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 12
  13. 13. Most significant contributors to non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production: Canada, Brazil, U.S., Kazakhstan, Russia 0 6 12 18 24 Canada United States Mexico Brazil Kazakhstan Russia Other 2010 2025 2040 non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 13
  14. 14. We are cautiously optimistic in our revised Mexican liquids production outlook given the legislative changes underway 0 1 2 3 4 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 IEO2014 IEO2013 Mexican liquid fuels production, IEO2014 and IEO2013 million barrels per day Source: EIA, IEO2014 and IEO2013 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 14
  15. 15. NGPL and biofuels account for most of the other liquid fuels 0 3 6 9 12 15 Gas-to-liquids Coal-to-liquids Biofuels Natural gas plant liquids 2010 2025 2040 world production of selected other liquid fuels, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 15
  16. 16. EIA Reference scenario shows world tight oil production increasing to almost 8 million b/d in 2025 0 2 4 6 8 10 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 tight oil production million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 and International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 16 projections history 2012 U.S. (AEO2014 & IEO2014 Reference case) World (IEO2014 Reference case)
  17. 17. Tight oil production will spread to nations outside of the United States and Canada over the projection 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 United States Canada Mexico Russia Argentina China Rest of world 2010 2025 2040 tight oil production, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 17 2.9 MMbbl/d in 2013 3.9 MMbbl/d in 2014 (STEO) AEO2014 High Resource case 5.0 MMbbl/d in 2015 (STEO)
  18. 18. While the outlook for total liquids production is similar with IEA and OPEC, there are different perspectives on sources of supply 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 EIA IEO IEA WEO CP OPEC WOO EIA IEO IEA WEO CP OPEC WOO Other liquid fuels Crude and lease condensate petroleum and other liquid fuels production million barrels per day Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case; IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 Current Policies scenario; OPEC World Oil Outlook 2013 Reference case Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 18 2012 2035
  19. 19. Areas of uncertainty in the outlook • China’s energy demand growth; particularly in transportation – EIA is working with MIT and others to upgrade the structural and macroeconomic determinates of transportation demand in all regions for IEO2015 • Increasing global trade of natural gas and HGL in addition to oil – EIA is integrating the representation of oil and natural gas supply and other hydrocarbons • Global development of tight oil and shale gas resources – EIA is gathering geology and production information, and conducting outreach • Impact of geopolitical tensions on energy supply – EIA exploring options for representing these uncertainties in the outlook Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 19
  20. 20. For more information Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, 2014 20 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

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