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North American Oil & Gas- Supply, Demand & Export Outlook

North American Oil & Gas- Supply, Demand & Export Outlook

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North American Oil & Gas- Supply, Demand & Export Outlook

  1. 1. U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov Supply, Demand, and Export Outlook for North American Oil and Gas For Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 | Houston, TX By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator
  2. 2. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting steady growth in GDP offset by improving energy efficiency 2 U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release history projections 2012 37% 18% 27% 8% 8% 1% nuclear oil and other liquids natural gas coal renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) 34% 19% 28% 8% 9% 2% liquid biofuels Shares of total U.S. energy Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014
  3. 3. Challenges in understanding U.S. transportation fuel use 3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and income indices Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis VMT per capita personal disposable income per capita mean household income 1995 = 1.0 Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014
  4. 4. The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources 4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Eagle Ford (TX) Bakken (MT & ND) Spraberry (TX & NM Permian) Bonespring (TX & NM Permian) Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian) Delaware (TX & NM Permian) Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian) Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Haynesville Utica (OH, PA & WV) Marcellus Woodford (OK) Granite Wash (OK & TX) Austin Chalk (LA & TX) Monterey (CA) U.S. tight oil production million barrels of oil per day 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Marcellus (PA & WV) Haynesville (LA & TX) Eagle Ford (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Woodford (OK) Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH) Utica (OH, PA & WV) Rest of US 'shale' U.S. dry shale gas production billion cubic feet per day Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through July 2014 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s). Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014
  5. 5. U.S. rail carloads of crude oil and petroleum products exceed 1.5 million b/d in 2014 Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 5 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 number of rail carloads per week Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Association of American Railroads million barrels per day
  6. 6. U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future 6 U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 -10 0 10 20 30 40 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 projections history 2012 Consumption Domestic supply Net exports 100 75 50 25 0 -25 billion cubic feet per day
  7. 7. U.S. petroleum product net exports million barrels per day -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and Short Term Energy Outlook Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 7 U.S. is already a major net exporter of petroleum products 2015(e)
  8. 8. U.S. exports of petroleum products to Mexico and Canada have more than doubled and tripled, respectively, since 2004 Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 8 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Canada Mexico U.S. petroleum products exports thousand barrels per day Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly Jan-Feb
  9. 9. Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 9 North American net imports of oil and natural gas Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014
  10. 10. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 High Oil and Gas Resource U.S. crude oil production exceeds 13 million b/d in High Oil and Gas Resource case Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 10 U.S. crude oil production in three cases million barrels per day 2012 history projections Reference Low Oil and Gas Resource U.S. maximum production level: 9.6 million barrels/day (1970) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case, High Oil and Gas Resource case, and Low Oil and Gas Resource case
  11. 11. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Other Non-OPEC Syria Sudan / S. Sudan Iraq Nigeria Libya Iran U.S. oil production growth helping to offset unplanned outages 11 estimated unplanned crude oil production outages million barrels per day Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2014 *monthly production delta versus Jan. 2011 production level Non- OPEC OPEC Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 U.S. Production growth*
  12. 12. Most of the growth in production between 2011 and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 40 or above 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 API 50+ API 40-50 API 35-40 API 27-35 API below 27 U.S. crude oil production by type million barrels of oil per day Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR, Texas RRC. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/ Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 12 forecast history
  13. 13. mixed hydrocarbon wells (gas, condensate, oil) dry gas (exportable with order/authorization) crude oil / lease condensate (exportable under limited conditions) wet gas EIA Refinery Survey plant condensate splitter complex distillation stabilizer finished product streams processed products for domestic use or exportable without license finished petroleum products and other processed hydrocarbon liquids separation via temperature gradients water separation via pressure changes field / lease separator flash drum heater treater Distillation processes and resulting products Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 13 other processed gas liquids fractionator separator gas processing plant processed condensate
  14. 14. For more information Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014 14 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

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