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US OIL & GAS OUTLOOK

US OIL & GAS OUTLOOK

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US OIL & GAS OUTLOOK

  1. 1. U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov Oil and Gas Outlook For Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 | Palm Beach, FL By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration
  2. 2. Recent research • Growth in light sweet crude oil production – U.S. supply of lighter API gravity crude will continue to outpace that of medium and heavier crudes; more than 60% of EIA’s forecast of production growth for 2014 and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity 40+ oil; 28% of production growth in 2015 is Gulf of Mexico API gravity 27-35 medium sour oil • Updated LNG Study – EIA was asked to assess how significantly increased exports of LNG could affect domestic energy markets, focusing on consumption, production, and prices. The scenarios reach as high as 20 Bcf/d, with these exports phased in at a rate of 2 Bcf/d each year beginning in 2015, sourced from the lower 48 states • Study of the relationship of gasoline and crude oil prices – EIA looked into the determinants of gasoline prices in the United States, and whether a change in current limitations on crude oil exports would have an effect on those prices, and the magnitude of that effect Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 2
  3. 3. 3 Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 These seven regions accounted for 95% of U.S. oil production growth and all U.S. natural gas production growth from 2011-2013 Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report
  4. 4. The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources 4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Eagle Ford (TX) Bakken (MT & ND) Spraberry (TX & NM Permian) Bonespring (TX & NM Permian) Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian) Delaware (TX & NM Permian) Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian) Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Haynesville Utica (OH, PA & WV) Marcellus Woodford (OK) Granite Wash (OK & TX) Austin Chalk (LA & TX) Monterey (CA) U.S. tight oil production million barrels of oil per day 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Marcellus (PA & WV) Haynesville (LA & TX) Eagle Ford (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Woodford (OK) Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH) Utica (OH, PA & WV) Rest of US 'shale' U.S. dry shale gas production billion cubic feet per day Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through August 2014 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s). Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014
  5. 5. U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040, when production exceeds 100 billion cubic feet per day 5 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Reference case 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Associated with oil Coalbed methane Tight gas Shale gas Alaska Non-associated offshore Non-associated onshore projections history 2012 Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 billion cubic feet per day
  6. 6. 6 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2005 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Reference case projections history industrial* electric power commercial residential transportation** 11.2 4.1 1.7 11.0 3.6 9.1 4.2 0.7 8.5 2.9 *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014
  7. 7. U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future 7 U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 -10 0 10 20 30 40 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 projections history 2012 Consumption Domestic supply Net exports 100 75 50 25 0 -25 billion cubic feet per day
  8. 8. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Reference case and High Oil and Gas Resource case 8 Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 Projected U.S. natural gas trade depends on assumptions regarding resources and future technology advances Reference case trillion cubic feet per year exports to Mexico exports to Canada lower 48 LNG exports imports from Canada LNG imports High Oil and Gas Resource case trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day 0 5 20 15 10 -5 -10
  9. 9. Key Takeaways from Updated EIA Study of added LNG exports Prices: Projected average natural gas prices at the producer level average 4% to 11% above the Reference case projection across export scenarios over 2015-40, while residential natural gas prices in the export scenarios average 2% to 5% above their base projection Natural gas production: With the exception of one baseline/scenario pairing, higher natural gas production satisfies 60% to 80% of the increase in natural gas demand from LNG exports over 2015-40 Natural gas consumption: The electric power sector accounts for most of the decrease in delivered natural gas. The electric generation mix shifts towards other generation sources, including coal and renewables, with some decrease in total generation as electricity prices rise CO2 emissions: Higher coal use leads to higher carbon dioxide output Expenditures: On average, from 2015 to 2040, natural gas bills paid by end-use consumers in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors combined increase 1% to 8% across pairings of export scenarios and baselines. Increases in electricity bills paid by end-use customers range from 0% to 3% Economic gains: Changes in the level of GDP relative to baseline range from 0.05% to 0.17% and generally increase with the amount of added LNG exports required to fulfill an export scenario; EIA’s NEMS model may understate the economic benefits Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 9
  10. 10. Resource and technology assumptions have major implications for projected U.S. crude oil production beyond the next few years 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 2000 2010 2020 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 2000 2010 2020 10 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014; Short Term Energy Outlook, October 2014 Alaska tight oil other lower 48 states onshore lower 48 states offshore STEO October 2014 U.S. crude oil projection 2012 projections history projections history 2012 Alaska tight oil other lower 48 states onshore Reference case million barrels per day High Oil and Gas Resource case million barrels per day lower 48 states offshore Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014
  11. 11. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Other Non-OPEC Syria Sudan / S. Sudan Iraq Nigeria Libya Iran U.S. oil production growth helping to offset unplanned outages 11 estimated unplanned crude oil production outages million barrels per day Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2014 *monthly production delta versus Jan. 2011 production level Non- OPEC OPEC Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 U.S. Production growth*
  12. 12. U.S. rail carloads of crude oil and petroleum products exceed 1.5 million b/d in 2014 Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 12 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 number of rail carloads per week Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Association of American Railroads million barrels per day
  13. 13. Growing U.S. oil production and rising demand in China have together made China the world’s largest net oil importer Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 13 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 U.S. net imports China net imports net imports for China and the United States million barrels per day Note: Net oil imports are defined as total liquid fuels consumption less domestic production Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2014 projections history Aug-14
  14. 14. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 U.S. is the largest producer of petroleum and natural gas in the world Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 14 estimated U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia petroleum and natural gas production quadrillion Btu million barrels per day of oil equivalent United States Russia Saudi Arabia petro- leum natural gas 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Petroleum production includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, condensates, refinery processing gain, and other liquids, including biofuels; barrels per day oil equivalent were calculated using a conversion factor of 1 barrel oil equivalent=5.55 million British thermal units (Btu)
  15. 15. Effect of low oil prices on U.S. shale oil production Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 15 Source: Rystad Energy North America Quarterly Shale Report US+CA, oil+NGLs from tight plays (kbbld) Brent-indexed breakeven prices:
  16. 16. U.S. petroleum product net exports million barrels per day -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and Short Term Energy Outlook Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 16 U.S. is already a major net exporter of petroleum products 2015(e)
  17. 17. Key observations from EIA’s analysis of the relationship between gasoline and crude oil prices • Prices of Brent crude oil, an international benchmark, are more important than the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a domestic benchmark, for determining gasoline prices in all four U.S. regions studied • The effect that a relaxation of current limitations on U.S. crude oil exports would have on U.S. gasoline prices depends on its effect on international crude prices rather than its effect on domestic crude prices • Gasoline is a globally traded commodity, and prices are highly correlated across global spot markets • Gasoline supply, demand, and trade in various regions are changing; U.S. Gulf Coast and Chicago spot gasoline prices, which are closely linked, are now often the lowest in the world during fall and winter months Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 17
  18. 18. Most of the growth in production between 2011 and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 40 or above 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 API 50+ API 40-50 API 35-40 API 27-35 API below 27 U.S. crude oil production by type million barrels of oil per day Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR, Texas RRC. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/ Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 18 forecast history
  19. 19. 19 Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 Crude oil and associated liquids contain a wide variety of hydrocarbons Source: EIA via Harvey Crude Assay Management System
  20. 20. mixed hydrocarbon wells (gas, condensate, oil) dry gas (exportable with order/authorization) crude oil / lease condensate (exportable under limited conditions) wet gas EIA Refinery Survey plant condensate splitter complex distillation stabilizer finished product streams processed products for domestic use or exportable without license finished petroleum products and other processed hydrocarbon liquids separation via temperature gradients water separation via pressure changes field / lease separator flash drum heater treater Distillation processes and resulting products Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 20 other processed gas liquids fractionator separator gas processing plant processed condensate
  21. 21. In the AEO reference case, annual carbon dioxide emissions rise slowly, but remain below levels reached in the 2000s Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 21 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014
  22. 22. EIA projects declines in carbon dioxide emissions for all sectors except industrial relative to 2005 Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 22 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014
  23. 23. Coal continues to account for the largest share of global energy- related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection 23 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons Coal Natural gas Liquid fuels 2010 History Projections Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
  24. 24. Areas of uncertainty in the outlook • Oil prices • China’s energy demand growth; particularly in transportation • Increasing global trade of natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids in addition to oil • Global development of tight oil and shale gas resources • Policy decisions on crude oil exports • Impact of geopolitical tensions on energy supply • Constraints on CO2 Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 24
  25. 25. For more information Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 25 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

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