Formulate better hypotheses
•
3 likes•894 views
This document discusses formulating better hypotheses for abductive design research. It explains that hypotheses should be testable, have independent and dependent variables, and state a clear relationship between them based on evidence. Poor hypotheses can lead teams in the wrong direction, so it's important to go back to the scientific method. The document provides templates for generating hypotheses for generative and evaluative research. It also outlines steps for formulating, testing, and assessing hypotheses as part of an iterative research process. Formulating the right hypotheses is presented as key to effective abductive design.
Recommended
Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (20)
Viewers also liked
Viewers also liked (18)
Similar to Formulate better hypotheses
Similar to Formulate better hypotheses (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Formulate better hypotheses
- 1. Formulate better hypotheses For a more effective Abductive Design Carmen Brion | @Tea_monster UX Oxford and DOPM | 10-05-2016
- 2. Abductive design takes the best guess Abductive Reasoning ● Starts with an incomplete set of observations ● Forms hypotheses making a prediction based on the information you have at the moment ● Goes from an observation to a theory that frames the most likely explanation for the observation Contrary to popular opinion - Sherlock Holmes rarely, if ever, deduces anything. He may occasionally induce something, but most of the time he infers the best explanation from his observations. Source Picture by Graham
- 3. Hypotheses make design research collaborative and targeted Facilitates teams to: ● Discuss and align about the problems to solve ● Separate assumptions from facts Picture by James Stencilowsky
- 4. Where hypotheses fit within the design framework?
- 5. Formulating hypotheses It is not an easy task Picture by Markus Spiske
- 6. This is not a hypothesis, it is just a description of how pagination works. If online shoppers use pagination then they will have more items to explore If online shoppers use pagination then they the likelihood of buying increase If online shoppers use pagination then they will have different pages of items to explore This is not a hypothesis, states a fact and it is not worth investigating This is a hypotheses but uses a solution as independent variable and it’s too vague
- 7. Poor hypotheses are worse that no hypotheses Like poor research, give teams a false sense of going in the right direction. Bad hypotheses lead to ● Designing the wrong experiments ● Ambiguous data coming out of the research ● Results are difficult to interpret and translate into outcomes Picture by Quinn Dombrowski
- 8. To learn to formulate good hypotheses We need to go back to the scientific method Picture by Lefteris Heretakis
- 9. How to make hypotheses sound The good hypotheses: 1. Are simple and unambiguous 2. Have a dependent and an independent variables 3. State a clear, unique relationship between these 2 variables, based on some evidence/guess 4. Are testable, measurable, falsifiable and positive Anyone reading the hypotheses should be able to understand the context and clearly interpret the results. Picture by Gerry Lauzon
- 10. Pagination is a solution and this limits the outcomes of the research Diverge Converge Having the independent variable as the solution makes us converge too early and limits what we can find out in the research. Converge Diverge Having the independent variable solution-free makes the research divergent. The results will help to understand the whys behind this relationship and define the solution that fits better. If online shoppers use pagination then their likelihood of buying increases If we give online shoppers a bigger amount of attractive items then their likelihood of buying will increase
- 11. Understand where you are in product development journey Who is the audience? What are their problems/needs? How can we solve it? What’s the best solution? Who are the personas? Are there potential new personas? What are the Job To Be Done? What are their key behaviours? What are the personas problems? What are their pains and frustrations? How can we solve these problems? What are the barriers and/or constraints? How different solutions solve the problems? How the different solutions fit with the personas mental model? Which solution is better? How is the chosen solution working? What is the impact to the personas? Generative Research Evaluative Research “Find the root cause, don’t just put a plaster over the symptoms”
- 12. Generative research hypotheses templates Audience Problems Solutions We believe that [this persona(s)] are a potential new audience because of [this reason] We believe that [this persona(s)] will behave this way because of [this reason] We believe that [this persona(s)] with these goals have [this job to be done] We believe that [this persona(s)] have [this problem] [achieving this goal] because of [this reason] We believe that [this persona(s)] have [this pain/frustration] [achieving this goal] leading to this [consequence] We believe that [this problem] will be solve [with this solution] that will result in [this outcome] We believe that [this persona(s)] using [this solution] will result in [this outcome] We believe that [this solution] will result in [this change in the persona(s) mental model/behaviour] “Ask the right questions to get insights that lead to the right solutions”
- 13. Evaluative research hypotheses templates Solution If we provide [this solution] then [this persona (s)] will be able to achieve [this outcome] and results in [this improvement] If [this solution] is the best solution for [this persona(s)] to achieve [this outcome] as a results we will see [this improvement] If-then hypotheses are more suited for evaluative research. However, we can improve them to make sure they meets the good hypotheses requirements.
- 14. Hypotheses will evolve as we run research and we learn more about the audience needs We believe that fashion shoppers need more items in a category because they are looking for inspiration We believe that fashion shoppers find it hard navigating a great amount of content We believe that we can help fashion shoppers finding items they want to buy by relating their search to their lifestyle If the Fashion category has lifestyle articles then the likelihood of fashion shoppers to add 1 or more items to the basket will increase a 20%
- 15. Abductive Design Research Framework Picture by Alex Alishevskikh
- 16. Steps to formulate, test and assess hypotheses Determine the type of questions to answer Do we need evaluative or generative research? Determine questions What do we know, don’t know and what are the problems/constraints Determine assumptions Formulate hypotheses Following the guidelines Prioritise the hypotheses Which ones are more risky if they were wrong? Design the research To assess the prioritised hypotheses Run the research Assess hypotheses Validate/invalidate hypotheses with the results of the research Capture the learnings 1 32 4 5 6 7 8 9
- 17. Use Test Cards from the Value Proposition Design ● State assumption ● Outline the task to test the assumption ● Think how you are going to measure success ● Indicate what success means Will increase the likelihood of fashion shoppers finding items of their interest. Having a lifestyle filter will be asked to find items With a regular filter and with the lifestyle filter Participants will search A 20% more of items added to the basket than regular filters Lifestyle filters should achieve Number of items they add to the basket
- 18. Use Learning Cards from the Value Proposition Design ● State assumption ● Explain what was observed for this assumption during the research sessions ● Extract the learning ● Indicate the action to take in line with the learning Will increase the likelihood of fashion shoppers finding items of their interest. Having a lifestyle filter that are more attractive but fashion shopper might not add them to the basket because they want to try it first. Lifestyle filters generate Items the non-linear user journey to get fashion shopper back for items they had shown interest on. The user journey is not linear. Lifestyle filters Review how to address
- 19. For listening :) “Few ideas work on the first try. Iteration is key to innovation” ― Sebastian Thrun
- 21. If you use hypotheses, please let me know how it goes. Please feedback: ● What works and how it has impacted your work ● Any tips or cool stuff you would like to share when putting hypotheses into practice ● What is hard to put into practice and what problems you are encountering I am planning to keep working to make this work better, so I am planning to keep iterating these ideas and practices. Your ideas and feedback are always welcome, the more brains the better problem solving!