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Dinosaurs vs Unicorns aka "Bubble My Ass, All Dinosaurs Gonna Die" (London, June 2016)

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my talk on corporate innovation (or the lack thereof), the death of many dinosaurs, the survival of a smart few Raptors, and how to avoid getting trampled by Unicorns.

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Dinosaurs vs Unicorns aka "Bubble My Ass, All Dinosaurs Gonna Die" (London, June 2016)

  1. Dinosaurs vs. Unicorns @DaveMcClure @500Startups London, June 2016 (*Spoiler Alert: the Unicorns win) original post: https://500hats.com/bubble-my-ass-some-unicorns-might-be-overvalued-but-all-dinosaurs-gonna-die-fb0ce311a7bd
  2. “Bubble My Ass: Some Unicorns Might Be Overvalued, But All Dinosaurs Gonna Die.” https://500hats.com/bubble-my-ass-some-unicorns-might-be-overvalued-but-all-dinosaurs-gonna-die-fb0ce311a7bd Abstract: pundits argue billion-dollar startups are overvalued (likely true for many Unicorns), but few realize why public company valuations might also be too expensive. Traditional P/E ratios of 15–20+ are probably too optimistic, relative to the future cash flows / operating margins of big dumb companies can be sustained, vs. the growth rate /disruptive potential of competing Unicorns. Unless they innovate more rapidly (or acquire their internet equivalents), expect most public company Dinosaurs to be disrupted and destroyed by an endless march of VC-funded Unicorns that will bash their tiny little reptile brains in via software automation, tech innovation, & internet marketing.
  3. Top 3 Reasons All Dinosaurs Gonna Die 1) Dinosaurs don’t Innovate (“Innovators Dilemma”) 2) Dinosaurs can’t Recruit/Retain [Tech] Talent 3) Dinosaurs don’t Understand Internet [Marketing]
  4. Top 3 Ways Smart Dinosaurs (aka “Raptors”) Can Survive 1) Acquire LOTS of pre-Unicorns (Centaurs & Ponies) before they get big (re: “Series B Sniping”) 2) Structure Acquisitions as EARNOUTS that are HEAVILY back-ended so risk is offset by revenue (or, majority-owner investments w/ founder upside) 3) Build industry reputation of OVER-PAYING so that future acquisitions make sure to talk to you
  5. Why Founders Will Sell Their Future Unicorn to Smart Dinosaurs for <$100M • after raising Seed & Series A capital, founders probably still own ~30-50% of the company — for acquisitions @ $10-100M, this could be worth $5M-10M+ per founder • when VCs value Series B companies at $30-70M, they will invest $10-30M will expect Unicorn-size outcomes ($1B+ valuations) that are still low-probability scenarios • for many founders, acquisitions of $10-100M are MUCH less risky than building future Unicorns, and they can have a life-changing $5-10M “FYM” payday RIGHT NOW
  6. 5-Step Innovation Lifecycle for Smart Dinosaurs 1) Research Industry Innovation Verticals 2) Do Industry Outreach / Meet Lots of Startups 3) Test-Drive Startups via B/D Partnerships 4) Invest in Promising Startups as they grow up 5) Acquire [lots of] Startups (@ <$100M)
  7. Download our free white paper on Smart Dinosaur Innovation • Download FREE white paper by INSEAD & 500 Startups: • http://698640.hs- sites.com/500corporations

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