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Data for the Classroom from
Q1 GDP Grows at 2.2
percent, Private Sector at 2.8% US GDP growth slowed to 2.2% in Q1 2012, down from 3% in Q4 2011, according to the advance estimate from the BEA The private sector grew at 2.8% It was the 11th consecutive quarter of growth The advance estimate is based on partial data and is often substantially revised Posted April 28, 2012 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
Expansion Continues According to standard
business cycle terminology, the recession phase of the business cycle is the downward movement of GDP from its previous peak The recovery phase is the upward movement from the trough (low point) of the recession and continues until GDP again reaches its previous peak. Once GDP moves above its previous peak, the expansion phase begins. Q1 2012 GDP was solidly above pre- recession peak, continuing the expansion that the economy entered in Q3 2011 Posted April 28, 2012 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
Sources of US GDP Growth
in Q3 2011 Table shows the contribution of each sector to the 2.2% total Consumption contributed 2.04 percentage GDP growth in Q1 2012 points to Q1 growth, up from 1.47 in Q4 Investment slowed, but inventory investment accounted for much less of the total in Q1 than in Q4 Government spending continued its steady decline, led by defense cuts; state and local government spending also fell Export growth contributed .73 percentage points, up from .37 in Q4. Net exports were flat Posted April 28, 2012 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com
Nominal GDP A Little Above
Trend, Gap Remains Large Q1 nominal GDP (NGDP) growth was 3.8% (quarterly growth stated as annual rate), the same as in Q4 NGDP growth consisted of 2.2% real growth and 1.6% inflation An increasing number of economists focus on NGDP growth as a key policy target. Real potential GDP growth has averaged about 2.3 percent over the past 10 years. Adding 2 percent for the Fed’s target rate of inflation gives 4.3 percent. NGDP targeters could thus make a case for a more stimulative policy Posted April 28, 2012 on Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com