Se ha denunciado esta presentación.
Utilizamos tu perfil de LinkedIn y tus datos de actividad para personalizar los anuncios y mostrarte publicidad más relevante. Puedes cambiar tus preferencias de publicidad en cualquier momento.

咕唧咕唧,估計估計

4.192 visualizaciones

Publicado el

Agile Summit 2019 in Taipei

Publicado en: Software
  • Sé el primero en comentar

咕唧咕唧,估計估計

  1. 1. 咕唧咕唧 估計估計 Estimate 王泰瑞 Terry Wang 今天他會⼀一直出現
  2. 2. 王泰瑞 Terry Wang • CSM, CSPO, CSD, CSP • Agile community in 內湖 共同創辦、組織者 • 譯有 The Great ScrumMaster 中⽂文版 • 與 Andrew、Finn、Yves 共同翻譯 2017 Scrum Guide 中⽂文版 • 約八年年敏捷開發經驗 • 去年年有來來 agile summit 分享
  3. 3. •去年年 Agile summit 另外⼀一位講者 說:「Terry,你去年年講得好好笑。 XDDDD」 "Terry is such an idiot speaker last year.” 去年年的 feedback feedback from last year
  4. 4. – 強者我朋友 「對敏捷的⼈人來來說, ⼀一年年才⼀一次 feedback 是⼀一種羞辱」 “Agilists don’t get feedback once a year.” — a friend of mine
  5. 5. – 某個你我都遇過的 PM (已離職) 「我不管!我現在就要!」 “ Fxxx it. I want it now! ” — some PM we all knew. (quit already)
  6. 6. 這個 Session 要多嚴肅? How serious would you like this session to be?
  7. 7. 這個 Session 要多嚴肅? How serious would you like this session to be? XS S M L XL 超嚴肅 serious 超無厘頭 idiotic 剛剛到現在是 M We are now here.
  8. 8. 幹嘛搞這個? 這些資訊重要嗎? 對誰? Why? Does this info matter? To Whom?
  9. 9. 恭喜⼤大家! 我們可能已經創下 最多⼈人玩 planning poker 的新紀錄? Congrats! We may have set the record of most people playing planning poker?
  10. 10. 但,我是個討厭的⼈人 Sorry, I am a dictator. XS S M L XL 超嚴肅 serious 超無厘頭 idiotic
  11. 11. XS S M L XL 超嚴肅 serious 超無厘頭 idiotic 我還是要繼續 M We are staying here. 但,我是個討厭的⼈人 Sorry, I am a dictator.
  12. 12. 警告! 在開始前... Warning! Before we start
  13. 13. 本次分享內容 可能不適⽤用於你的公司或團隊 請⼩小⼼心服⽤用。 What I am going to share may not be well-applied to your organization or team. Please shake before use.
  14. 14. 先講結論 Let’s work backwards • 要估就估,不估就不估 Estimate them if you want. Don’t Estimate if you don’t want. • 持續完成價值最⾼高的事情 Always work on the most valuable things. • 在各層級調整要做的事情的多寡/ ⼤大⼩小 Do scope management at all levels
  15. 15. ⼤大綱 outline 1. 為什什麼估計? why do we need estimate? 2. 什什麼是估計? What is “estimate”? 3. 敏捷團隊做估計的原則 How to estimate like an agile team? 4. 可是...? But…? 5. Terry,你腳踏實地⼀一點 Terry, could you come back to earth? 6. 結論 Conclusion
  16. 16. 1. 為什什麼估計? why do we need estimate? 2. 什什麼是估計? What is “estimate”? 3. 敏捷團隊做估計的原則 How to estimate like an agile team? 4. 可是...? But…? 5. Terry,你腳踏實地⼀一點 Terry, could you come back to earth? 6. 結論 Conclusion ⼤大綱 outline
  17. 17. 我知道~~ I know the answer~~
  18. 18. 因為要... Because we want to…
  19. 19. 發⼤大財! Be rich!
  20. 20. 發⼤大財 是正確的 It is correct to be rich!
  21. 21. 發⼤大財是正確的 因為 ROI It is correct to be rich! Because of ROI.
  22. 22. 因為 ROI,所以公司需要做出決定 The business need to make a decision base on ROI (Return on Investment) 因為 ROI,公司需要知道什什麼時候可以得到什什麼成果 The business need to know what they will get, and when. 因為 ROI,公司不知道要做多久,所以請教專家(也就是你) The business just don’t know, so they consult you, the experts. schedule by krishna from the Noun Project $ ?
  23. 23. 所以給出準確的估計好像是必須的 It seems that having an accurate estimate is a must.
  24. 24. 不確定錐 Cone of Uncertainty. 0.2 4.0 2.0 Relativecostrange 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 Feasibility Concept of Operation Requirements spec Product Design spec Detail Design spec Ref: Todd Little, Landmark Graphics, “Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty.” IEEE Software May/June 2006 Accepted software
  25. 25. 越晚估計越準 The later you estimate, the more accurate it could be. 0.2 4.0 2.0 Relativecostrange 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 Feasibility Concept of Operation Requirements spec Product Design spec Accepted software Detail Design spec Ref: Todd Little, Landmark Graphics, “Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty.” IEEE Software May/June 2006
  26. 26. ⼤大綱 outline 1. 為什什麼估計? why do we need estimate? 2. 什什麼是估計? What is “estimate”? 3. 敏捷團隊做估計的原則 How to estimate like an agile team? 4. 可是...? But…? 5. Terry,你腳踏實地⼀一點 Terry, could you come back to earth? 6. 結論 Conclusion
  27. 27. 估計是為了了要準嗎? Is “estimate” supposed to be accurate? 先來來估計下⾯面這個問題 Let’s estimate this…
  28. 28. 等⼀一下議程結束後 你從會場到家裡,估計需要多久? How long do you think it will take to go home from here?
  29. 29. 好了了齁...? Ready?
  30. 30. 給隔壁的看⼀一下你的估計 Show your estimate to the person next to you.
  31. 31. 隔壁的看到以後,跟他說: Reply to the person who showed you his/her estimate:
  32. 32. 隔壁的看到以後,跟他說: 「你是猜的吧?」 Reply to the person who showed you his/her estimate: “That is a guess, right?”
  33. 33. 你真的可以猜的準嗎? Can you really guess what’s behind the door?
  34. 34. 然後咧? 打電話給老婆囉~ And then? Call your wife~
  35. 35. Man by fahmionline from the Noun Project Woman by Evgeni Moryakov from the Noun Project 老婆啊,我現在在 agile summit,講 咕唧咕唧 My love, I am now sharing “estimate” at agile summit.
  36. 36. Man by fahmionline from the Noun Project Woman by Evgeni Moryakov from the Noun Project 恩,幾點回來來? OK. When will you come back? 老婆啊,我現在在 agile summit,講 咕唧咕唧 My love, I am now sharing “estimate” at agile summit.
  37. 37. Man by fahmionline from the Noun Project Woman by Evgeni Moryakov from the Noun Project 恩,幾點回來來? OK. When will you come back? 老婆啊,我現在在 agile summit,講 咕唧咕唧 My love, I am now sharing “estimate” at agile summit. 議程五點結束,順利利的話... 回家⼤大概要⼀一個⼩小時吧。 The conference concludes at 17:00. It takes about an hour, depending on the traffic.
  38. 38. Man by fahmionline from the Noun Project Woman by Evgeni Moryakov from the Noun Project 恩,幾點回來來? OK. When will you come back? 恩,我有煮飯,六點開飯 OK, Dinner is at six. 老婆啊,我現在在 agile summit,講 咕唧咕唧 My love, I am now sharing “estimate” at agile summit. 議程五點結束,順利利的話... 回家⼤大概要⼀一個⼩小時吧。 The conference concludes at 17:00. It takes about an hour, depending on the traffic.
  39. 39. Man by fahmionline from the Noun Project Woman by Evgeni Moryakov from the Noun Project 恩,幾點回來來? OK. When will you come back? 你如果六點沒有準時到家,飯菜 涼了了,你就死定了了 Be on time. Or be dead. 老婆啊,我現在在 agile summit,講 咕唧咕唧 My love, I am now sharing “estimate” at agile summit. 恩,我有煮飯,六點開飯 OK, Dinner is at six. 議程五點結束,順利利的話... 回家⼤大概要⼀一個⼩小時吧。 The conference concludes at 17:00. It takes about an hour, depending on the traffic.
  40. 40. Man by fahmionline from the Noun Project Woman by Evgeni Moryakov from the Noun Project 恩,幾點回來來? OK. When will you come back? 你如果六點沒有準時到家,飯菜 涼了了,你就死定了了 Be on time. Or be dead. …… 老婆啊,我現在在 agile summit,講 咕唧咕唧 My love, I am now sharing “estimate” at agile summit. 恩,我有煮飯,六點開飯 OK, Dinner is at six. 議程五點結束,順利利的話... 回家⼤大概要⼀一個⼩小時吧。 The conference concludes at 17:00. It takes about an hour, depending on the traffic.
  41. 41. 估計 其實是⼀一種猜測 但是⼤大家都把猜測當承諾 Estimate = guess Estimate != promise
  42. 42. 把猜測當承諾 是超級危險的 It is hazardous when you make “estimates” to be “promises”
  43. 43. 把猜測當承諾 是超級危險的 It is hazardous when you make “estimates” to be “promises” 把猜測當承諾 是超級危險的
  44. 44. 把猜測當承諾 是超級危險的 Say three times because it is bloody important. 把猜測當承諾 是超級危險的 把猜測當承諾 是超級危險的
  45. 45. 1. 為什什麼估計? why do we need estimate? 2. 什什麼是估計? What is “estimate”? 3. 敏捷團隊做估計的原則 How to estimate like an agile team? 4. 可是...? But…? 5. Terry,你腳踏實地⼀一點 Terry, could you come back to earth? 6. 結論 Conclusion ⼤大綱 outline
  46. 46. ⽤用相對的⽅方法做估計 Estimate the items by comparing them. ⼩小的比⼤大的好估計 Smaller items are easier to estimate than the bigger ones. 由開發團隊做估計 Development team estimates. Not PO, nor tech leaders. team by Gan Khoon Lay from the Noun Project Rubik's Cube by my name is mud from the Noun Project Scale by Dinosoft Labs from the Noun Project 不⽤用⼈人天做單位 No “Man-Day” ⼈人天 Man-DayX
  47. 47. 怎麼把事情切⼩小? How to divide things into small chunks? • ⽤用 end-to-end 的 user story 為單位 Use end-to-end user stories • ⼩小的 end-to-end 的 user story 才能讓開發團隊⼀一起估計 Small, end-to-end user stories are estimable by the dev team. • ⼩小的 end-to-end 的 user story 才能⽤用相對的⽅方式做比較 Estimate by Comparing between small, end-to-end stories. • ⽤用什什麼單位估計?點數、⼈人天? In what unit? Points or man-day?
  48. 48. ⽤用「⼈人天」為單位作估計 其實是說: 九個孕婦可以⼀一個⽉月⽣生出孩⼦子 When we estimate in man-day or man-month. we don’t understand: “9 women can’t make a baby in a month”. Ref: Mark Suster, “9 Women Can’t Make a Baby in a Month”
  49. 49. Planning Poker … 就 planning poker 啊...
  50. 50. • 點數:0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ?, 無限⼤大, 咖啡 Points: 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ?, infinity, coffee • T shirt size:XS, S, M, L, XL 剛剛⼀一開始我們好像玩過了了? • 藉由出牌,增加溝通與互相之間的理理解 Increase the communications and the shared understandings during the process. Planning Poker … 就 planning poker 啊...
  51. 51. 其他估計單位 Other units • ⽔水果:葡萄、棗⼦子、蘋果、⽊木瓜、⻄西瓜 Fruit: grape, jujube, apple, papaya, watermelon • 狗點:吉娃娃、臘腸狗、⻄西施狗、牧⽺羊⽝犬、黃⾦金金獵⽝犬、⼤大丹丹 Dog point: Chihuahua, dooooooog, Cisco Shih Tzu dog, Shepherd dog, Golden Retriever, Great Dane • 三元估計法: Small/ Uncertain/ Large • 不論哪種單位,都可以有機會得到 Velocity We can have some kind of velocity whatever unit is used.
  52. 52. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing?
  53. 53. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing? 報告老闆,我們上個 Sprint 做了了兩兩個葡萄、 ⼀一個⽊木瓜 Sir, we made two grapes and one papaya last sprint.
  54. 54. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing? 報告老闆,我們上個 Sprint 做了了兩兩個葡萄、 ⼀一個⽊木瓜 Sir, we made two grapes and one papaya last sprint. 蛤?你說什什麼? What?
  55. 55. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing? 報告老闆,我們上個 Sprint 做了了兩兩個葡萄、 ⼀一個⽊木瓜 Sir, we made two grapes and one papaya last sprint. 蛤?你說什什麼? What? 就兩兩個葡萄、⼀一個⽊木瓜啊。 這個 Sprint 正在做⼀一個葡萄、三個蘋果 I said, 2 grapes and 1 papaya. And we are working on a grape and three apples this sprint.
  56. 56. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing? 報告老闆,我們上個 Sprint 做了了兩兩個葡萄、 ⼀一個⽊木瓜 Sir, we made two grapes and one papaya last sprint. 蛤?你說什什麼? What? 就兩兩個葡萄、⼀一個⽊木瓜啊。 這個 Sprint 正在做⼀一個葡萄、三個蘋果 I said, 2 grapes and 1 papaya. And we are working on a grape and three apples this sprint. 給我滾出我的公司 Get the fxxk outta here!
  57. 57. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing? 報告老闆,我們上個 Sprint 做了了兩兩個葡萄、 ⼀一個⽊木瓜 Sir, we made two grapes and one papaya last sprint. 蛤?你說什什麼? What? 就兩兩個葡萄、⼀一個⽊木瓜啊。 這個 Sprint 正在做⼀一個葡萄、三個蘋果 I said, 2 grapes and 1 papaya. And we are working on a grape and three apples this sprint. 給我滾出我的公司 Get the fxxk outta here! 別這樣啦... Come on…
  58. 58. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing? 報告老闆,我們上個 Sprint 做了了兩兩個葡萄、 ⼀一個⽊木瓜 Sir, we made two grapes and one papaya last sprint. 蛤?你說什什麼? What? 就兩兩個葡萄、⼀一個⽊木瓜啊。 這個 Sprint 正在做⼀一個葡萄、三個蘋果 I said, 2 grapes and 1 papaya. And we are working on a grape and three apples this sprint. 給我滾出我的公司 Get the fxxk outta here! 別這樣啦... Come on… 如果我說我們在做⼀一隻吉娃娃、三隻臘腸狗 會不會比較好懂? Is it better if I tell you we are working on 1 Chihuahua and 3 doooooooooogs?
  59. 59. 回答前 請⽤用腦 Use your brain before answering that question.
  60. 60. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing?
  61. 61. ⽬目前團隊每個 Sprint ⼤大概 做 80 點 到 deadline 前還有 3 個 sprint ⼤大概有 240 點的空間 前兩兩個應該沒問題 第三個抖抖的 Backlog 上⾯面 1. 折價卷:63 點 2. 會員管理理: 82 點 3. ⼆二階 SKU: 121 點 加起來來是 266 點
  62. 62. ⽬目前團隊每個 Sprint ⼤大概 做 80 點 到 deadline 前還有 3 個 sprint ⼤大概有 240 點的空間 前兩兩個應該沒問題 第三個抖抖的 Backlog 上⾯面 1. 折價卷:63 點 2. 會員管理理: 82 點 3. ⼆二階 SKU: 121 點 加起來來是 266 點 那個... 不好意思... excuse me…
  63. 63. 暫停⼀一下 我問⼀一下喔 WAIT !
  64. 64. 敏捷應該有 deadline 嗎? Should there be a deadline for an agile team?
  65. 65. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing? 報告老闆,在七⽉月初的 deadline 前我們還 有 3 個 sprint Sir, we have 3 sprints before deadline.
  66. 66. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing? 報告老闆,在七⽉月初的 deadline 前我們還 有 3 個 sprint Sir, we have 3 sprints before deadline. 我打算先排折價卷跟會員管理理兩兩個 feature, 六⽉月中應該沒問題,做完會先上線 I am confident to deliver the first two features within a month.
  67. 67. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing? 報告老闆,在七⽉月初的 deadline 前我們還 有 3 個 sprint Sir, we have 3 sprints before deadline. 我打算先排折價卷跟會員管理理兩兩個 feature, 六⽉月中應該沒問題,做完會先上線 I am confident to deliver the first two features within a month. ⼆二階 SKU 比較複雜、⼯工比較多,七⽉月初我們 可能先進 phase 1,等 phase 2 做完就⼀一起 release The third feature will take a bit longer, so I plan to deliver phase 1 of that feature before deadline.
  68. 68. PO 啊,現在進度怎樣? PO, how are we doing? 報告老闆,在七⽉月初的 deadline 前我們還 有 3 個 sprint Sir, we have 3 sprints before deadline. 不⾏行行。想辦法⼀一起上。 No. You cannot. Figure out how to deliver them altogether. ⼆二階 SKU 比較複雜、⼯工比較多,七⽉月初我們 可能先進 phase 1,等 phase 2 做完就⼀一起 release The third feature will take a bit longer, so I plan to deliver phase 1 of that feature before deadline. 我打算先排折價卷跟會員管理理兩兩個 feature, 六⽉月中應該沒問題,做完會先上線 I am confident to deliver the first two features within a month.
  69. 69. 「想辦法」是精華! “Figure out how to” is the key.
  70. 70. ⽬目前團隊每個 Sprint ⼤大概做 80 點 到 deadline 前還有 3 個 sprint ⼤大概有 240 點的空間 要想辦法⼀一起上 Backlog 上⾯面 1. 折價卷:63 點 2. 會員管理理: 82 點 3. ⼆二階 SKU : 121 點 加起來來是 266 點 1. 趕快跟團隊討論 2. 能不能畫⾯面簡單⼀一點? 3. 能不能先不做防呆? 4. 操作流程可不可以再簡化? 5. ⼆二階 SKU 可不可以不做? 其實很多⽅方法⿇麻...
  71. 71. 在各層調整 scope scope management at all levels • Epic:這個客⼾戶⼀一定要接嗎?這個 feature ⼀一定要現在做嗎? Epic: Do we have enough resources for this customer? Do we have to implement this feature now? • Story:這些 Story 是為了了完成什什麼⽬目標?少做點能不能⼀一樣完成那個 ⽬目標?在先把功能完成的前提下,畫⾯面可以醜⼀一點嗎? Story: Can we achieve the same goal with less stories? Can we focus on the functionalities first, and UI later? • Task:先把某些值寫死,以後再回來來開放給⼤大家輸入可以嗎?⼀一定要 開影片嗎?圖片可不可以? Can we just put default value here and change it later? Can we use the image first, and video later?
  72. 72. 在各層調整 scope scope management at all levels • Epic:這個客⼾戶⼀一定要接嗎?這個 feature ⼀一定要現在做嗎? Epic: Do we have enough resources for this customer? Do we have to implement this feature now? • Story:這些 Story 是為了了完成什什麼⽬目標?少做點能不能⼀一樣完成那個 ⽬目標?在先把功能完成的前提下,畫⾯面可以醜⼀一點嗎? Story: Can we achieve the same goal with less stories? Can we focus on the functionalities first, and UI later? • Task:先把某些值寫死,以後再回來來開放給⼤大家輸入可以嗎?⼀一定要 開影片嗎?圖片可不可以? Can we just put default value here and change it later? Can we use the image first, and video later? 在各層次做 Scope management 才是重點 Key: Scope management at all levels.
  73. 73. 估計不是為了了準 是為了了提出對策解決問題 Estimate is not about accuracy. It is about providing more info so that we can solve the problem.
  74. 74. 估計不是為了了準 是為了了提出對策解決問題 Estimate is not about accuracy. It is about providing more info so that we can solve the problem. 估計不是為了了準 是為了了提出對策解決問題
  75. 75. 估計不是為了了準 是為了了提出對策解決問題 Say three times because it is bloody important. 估計不是為了了準 是為了了提出對策解決問題 估計不是為了了準 是為了了提出對策解決問題
  76. 76. 1. 為什什麼估計? why do we need estimate? 2. 什什麼是估計? What is “estimate”? 3. 敏捷團隊做估計的原則 How to estimate like an agile team? 4. 可是...? But…? 5. Terry,你腳踏實地⼀一點 Terry, could you com back to earth? 6. 結論 Conclusion ⼤大綱 outline
  77. 77. 可是... 如果問題可以⽤用別的⽅方法解掉 或是 估計也幫不上忙呢? But What if the problem can be solve in another way? or, what if having the estimate doesn’t help much?
  78. 78. 直接就做了了 還估計個屁 Just do it. You are going to do it anyway. Why bother estimating?
  79. 79. 為什什麼不估計? Why not estimate? Product backlog …etc
  80. 80. Product backlog …etc • 產品待辦清單前⾯面那堆,應該被精煉的很 不錯了了,反正你下個 sprint ⼤大概都⼀一定要 做了了,幹嘛估計? The first bunch of PBIs are supposed to be refined well. And you are probably going to implement those anyway. Why bother estimating? 為什什麼不估計? Why not estimate?
  81. 81. Product backlog …etc • 產品待辦清單中間那堆,⼤大概還有很多變 數,會被修改。 • 既然以後都會變,那你現在去估計幹嘛? The middle part of PBIs are very likely to be modified in the future. Why bother estimating them now? 為什什麼不估計? Why not estimate?
  82. 82. Product backlog …etc • 產品待辦清單最後⾯面那堆,是許願池,估 計他幹嘛? All the far, distant, bottom PBIs are very likely to be wild fantasies. Why bother estimating? 為什什麼不估計? Why not estimate?
  83. 83. Product backlog …etc 怎麼開始不估計? Steps towards #NoEstimates 1. 拆 task,但不估 Task Stop Estimating Tasks 2. 把⼀一個 Story 在數天內完成 Limit the calendar duration of stories. 3. 把 Planning poker 的選項變少 Remove some planning poker card options 4. 持續的追蹤、紀錄每個 Story 的時間 Build histograms. Keep track of your average duration of stories. 5. ⽤用平均的 cycle time 做預測 Forecast by the average cycle time for Stories. Product backlog
  84. 84. 我們來來估計 Product Backlog 前⾯面這 些就好... Let’s estimate the PBIs in the front. Product backlog …etc
  85. 85. 從現在開始,我規定,Planning poker 只剩下 1, 3, 8 三張卡 From now on, only 1, 3, 8 is available. Product backlog …etc
  86. 86. 乾~很難耶 後⾯面那幾個明明是 40 吧?! 只能給 8 嗎? Wow, it is really difficult. Product backlog …etc
  87. 87. Product backlog …etc 所以,這樣的寫法, 使得團隊很難給點數... 我們下次修正寫法!寫⼩小⼀一點! The stories should be modified to have proper size. We can do this before next meeting.
  88. 88. Product backlog …etc 團隊啊 每個 Story 試試看在 2~3 天內完成 My dear dev team, try to complete every story in 2~3 days.
  89. 89. Product backlog …etc 乾~很難耶 Wow, it is really difficult.
  90. 90. Product backlog …etc 所以,這樣的寫法, 使得團隊很難兩兩三天完成 我們下次修正寫法!寫⼩小⼀一點! The stories should be modified to have proper size. We can do this before next meeting.
  91. 91. 下⼀一次估計... Next iteration…
  92. 92. Product backlog ⾝身為⼀一個 PO 我修改了了 Product backlog As a PO, I modified the Product backlog items.
  93. 93. Product backlog 還是只有1, 3, 8 嗎? 還是要在2~3 天內完成嗎? 很難耶~ Wow, it is still difficult to estimate using 1, 3, 8. And complete them in 2, 3 days.
  94. 94. 再下⼀一次估計... Next iteration…
  95. 95. Product backlog
  96. 96. 幾個⽉月後... After few months…
  97. 97. Product backlog
  98. 98. Product backlog 好像都差不多⼤大... 還要估計的話,好像很蠢耶... They are all at similar size. Only stupid will estimate them.
  99. 99. 當下最有價值 的 feature 是什什麼? Identify the most valuable feature at the moment.
  100. 100. 當下最有價值 的 feature 是什什麼? Identify the most valuable feature at the moment. 把它給做了了 Just do it.
  101. 101. 當下最有價值 的 feature 是什什麼? Identify the most valuable feature at the moment. 把它給做了了 Just do it. 蒐集反饋與 data Collect feedbacks and data
  102. 102. 當下最有價值 的 feature 是什什麼? Identify the most valuable feature at the moment. 把它給做了了 Just do it. 蒐集反饋與 data Collect feedbacks and data 下⼀一個迭代開始 Iterate
  103. 103. 當下最有價值 的 feature 是什什麼? Identify the most valuable feature at the moment. 把它給做了了 Just do it. 蒐集反饋與 data Collect feedbacks and data 下⼀一個迭代開始 Iterate 直接就做了了 還估計個屁 Just do it. You are going to do it anyway. Why bother estimating?
  104. 104. 1. 為什什麼估計? why do we need estimate? 2. 什什麼是估計? What is “estimate”? 3. 敏捷團隊做估計的原則 How to estimate like an agile team? 4. 可是...? But…? 5. Terry,你腳踏實地⼀一點 Terry, could you come back to earth? 6. 結論 Conclusion ⼤大綱 outline
  105. 105. Terry 啊,你們搞敏捷的就是不腳踏實地 解釋⼀一下你⾃自⼰己⼀一開始的投影片啊 That’s all theories. Explain your own slides.
  106. 106. 你有很多⼯工具 There are tools to help you.
  107. 107. 你有很多⼯工具 There are tools to help you. • Impact Mapping
  108. 108. 你有很多⼯工具 There are tools to help you. • Impact Mapping
  109. 109. 你有很多⼯工具 There are tools to help you. • User Story Map
  110. 110. 你有很多⼯工具 There are tools to help you. • User Story Map sprint 1 sprint 2 sprint 3
  111. 111. 你有很多⼯工具 There are tools to help you. 幫助你不⽤用做估計 To help you not to estimate 還可以給老闆⼀一個交代 while having a projection on the delivery. 這些⼯工具你⽤用了了嗎? Did you use any of them?
  112. 112. Terry 啊,我還是感覺你唬爛唬爛的 Huh… Terry, I just don’t feel right…
  113. 113. PERT 法 Program Evaluation and Review Technique • 對⼀一個事情給三個預估值,O: 極樂觀的, P: 極悲觀的, N: ⼀一般的 Give 3 estimate values for the thing you are estimating. Optimistic, Pessimistic, Nominal. • 求平均值與標準差: avg = (O + 4N + P) / 6 std_dev = (P - O) / 6 • 這件事可能會在 avg 完成,也可能會 avg + std_dev 才完成 This can be completed from avg to avg + std_dev
  114. 114. • 對每件事情給三個預估值,O: 極樂觀的, P: 極悲觀的, N: ⼀一般的,並算出 各⾃自的平均值與標準差 Give 3 estimate values for the thing you are estimating. Optimistic, Pessimistic, Nominal. And calculate each avg and std_dev. • 求全部的平均值與全部的標準差: avg_total = sum(avg1, avg2, avg3, …avgN) std_dev_total = Geometric_mean (std_dev1, …std_devN) • 這件事可能會在 avg_total 完成,也可能會 avg_total + std_dev_total 才完 成 This can be completed from avg_total to avg_total + std_dev_total PERT 法 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
  115. 115. 注意不確定錐 Mind the Cone of Uncertainty. 0.2 4.0 2.0 Relativecostrange 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 Feasibility Concept of Operation Requirements spec Product Design spec Detail Design spec Ref: Todd Little, Landmark Graphics, “Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty.” IEEE Software May/June 2006 Accepted software
  116. 116. 1. 為什什麼估計? why do we need estimate? 2. 什什麼是估計? What is “estimate”? 3. 敏捷團隊做估計的原則 How to estimate like an agile team? 4. 可是...? But…? 5. Terry,你腳踏實地⼀一點 Terry, could you com back to earth? 6. 結論 Conclusion ⼤大綱 outline
  117. 117. 把猜測當承諾 是超級危險的 Say three times because it is bloody important. 把猜測當承諾 是超級危險的 把猜測當承諾 是超級危險的
  118. 118. 估計不是為了了準 是為了了提出對策解決問題 Say three times because it is bloody important. 估計不是為了了準 是為了了提出對策解決問題 估計不是為了了準 是為了了提出對策解決問題
  119. 119. 或許有時候 不估計也不錯 #NoEstimate
  120. 120. 真的應該做的是: 做各層次的 scope management What you should really do is: Do scope management at all levels.
  121. 121. Terry,我有問題要問! Question!
  122. 122. Terry,假如你的團隊在這次 refinement 看到 了了上次估過的 Story 你會要他們再估⼀一次嗎? Terry, in this refinement meeting, your team sees a story with an estimate value. Will you ask the team to update the value?
  123. 123. 會,因為... Yes, because. 0.2 4.0 2.0 Relativecostrange 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 Feasibility Concept of Operation Requirements spec Product Design spec Detail Design spec Ref: Todd Little, Landmark Graphics, “Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty.” IEEE Software May/June 2006 Accepted software
  124. 124. 估計不是為了了準 是為了了提出對策解決問題 Estimate is not about accuracy. It is about providing more info so that we can solve the problem. 不會,因為... No, because.
  125. 125. Terry,我們是接案公司,怎麼弄弄? Terry, what is your suggestion to software contractor company?
  126. 126. 去看去年年 agile summit 保哥的分享 https://www.tibame.com/courseplayer/389/0
  127. 127. Terry,那你會做估計嗎? Terry, do you estimate?
  128. 128. 他強任他強,清風拂⼭山崗 他橫任他橫,明⽉月照⼤大江 Ref: 九陽真經
  129. 129. 以上分享內容 可能不適⽤用於你的公司或團隊 請⼩小⼼心服⽤用。 What I have shared may not be well-applied to your organization or team. Please shake before use.
  130. 130. One thing is true: 這世界需要更更多有實戰經驗的 scrum master This world deserves more scrum masters with real experience and expertise.
  131. 131. 或許你等⼀一下也會想去...
  132. 132. Thank you agileterrywang@gmail.com Scrum Community in Taiwan Agile Community in 內湖 七龍珠的最強的地球⼈人 不是漫威的漫畫 是⿃鳥⼭山明的漫畫 他去過那美克星 要征服宇宙 就靠這個光頭了了

×