Analysis of the First past the post electoral system

1. Analysis of the First-Past –the-Post
Electoral System in Malawi
Dr. Henry G. Chingaipe
Institute for Policy Research & Social Empowerment
Email: henrychingaipe@yahoo.co.uk
26th June 2014

2. Outline of Presentation
1. Introduction
 Definition of an electoral system
 The significance of electoral systems
in democratic politics and
governance
 Typology of electoral systems
2. Malawi’s Electoral System: Empirical
outcomes
 Description of the system
 Advantages of the system
 Disadvantages of the system
2. Securing Legitimacy and Legality for a
Malawian President: A Case for TRS
 Description of the TRS
 Advantages of the TRS
 Disadvantages of the TRS
3. Electoral Systems and the
Inclusion/Exclusion of Women
 How FPTP excludes women – the
case of Malawi
 How PR includes women – lessons
from Mozambique and South Africa
4. Alternative routes to inclusion for
women: Affirmative action/quota –
Lessons from Uganda and Tanzania
5. Concluding remarks
 Legitimacy of government in Malawi:
Is it about Electoral systems or
system of government or other
factors?
 A case for TRS and associated reforms
 A case for statutory quota for women

3. Electoral system: Definition
• The mechanisms by which the preferences of citizens
are translated into seats in representative
institutions.
• At the most basic level, electoral systems translate
the votes cast in an election into seats won by parties
and candidates
• The key variables of an electoral system are:
 The electoral formula used i.e. whether the system is
majoritarian or proportional AND what mathematical
formula is used to calculate the allocation of seats.

4. Electoral system cont’d
• The ballot structure i.e. whether the voter
votes for a candidate or a party AND whether
the voter makes a single choice or expresses a
series of preferences.
• constituency magnitude i.e. how many
representatives a constituency or ward elects.

5. Types of Electoral Systems
• There are many types of electoral systems but they
fall in three broad categories that are further
distinguished into a total of 12 main types
• In addition, there are ‘other’ electoral systems, which
do not fit perfectly well in these three broad
categories. Such systems are also rarely used.

6. Electoral systems- A Typology
Electoral
system
majority
FPTP
TRS
BV
PBV
AV
PR
List PR
STV
Mixed
MMP
parallel
Other
SNTV
LV
BC

7. Electoral System: Importance
• The subject of electoral systems ought to be of central interest to
anyone concerned with the operation of democratic systems of
Government because they structure and condition some of the
important democratic institutional setups of a country:
 The nature of political parties and the party systems that emerge
are influenced by the kind of electoral systems in place.
 Nature of political representation-The relationship that exits
between those elected and their respective electorate is also
shaped to some extent by electoral systems.
 Whether politics will be adversarial and confrontational or
accommodative and consensus oriented may have to with the type
of electoral system(s) in use.
 Furthermore, with regard to chances of winning, what or who is
elected under one system may not be elected under another.

8. Malawi’s Electoral System
• Known as ‘first past the post’ (FPTP), ‘winner
takes all’, ‘single member constituency’ and
‘single ballot’.
Basic Features
• Provides for the election of an individual
candidate to represent people of a clearly defined
geographical area.
• In voting, each voter places a single mark beside
the name of the candidate of his or her choice.
• In order to win, a candidate requires only one
more vote than the closest competitor.

9. Advantages of FPTP
• Can produce single party Executive leading to
more capability to implement policies and
legislation (more relevant in parliamentary
government)
• Produces a clear opposition and government
• Relatively simple for the electorate, especially
where illiteracy is high.
• Considered superior in representation of
constituency interests because of a direct, vertical
connection between elected representatives and
voters.

10. Advantages of FPTP
• Discriminates against minority parties either
through underrepresentation or complete
exclusion and therefore curtails the
destabilizing impact of tiny (extremist) parties
• FPTP system improves the quality of elected
office holders because voters are free to
choose between candidates rather than just
political parties.

11. Disadvantages
• The System has the potential to produce a winner elected
by a minority.
– Presidential level: 1994, 2004,2014
– Parliamentary: 99 in 2004; 110 in 2009; 134 in 2014
• This puts the legitimacy of the winner at stake. Thus, a
candidate may be legally elected but may lack legitimacy to
feel accepted by a majority of the electorate.
• Losing parties and/or candidates secure votes but no seats.
This means that the votes for losing candidates are ‘wasted’
because they are not represented by anyone in Parliament.
– This amounts to systemic disenfranchisement. This increases
alienation from the political system and the likelihood of anti-system
movements.

12. Disadvantages cont’d
• The system exaggerates and encourages regional
and tribal fiefdoms or other parochial identities
• Interests of the electorate whose parties have no
chance of winning in fiefdoms have no chance of
being represented.
– This poses challenges for nation building.
– Disenfranchisement
• The system is particularly open to manipulation
by ruling parties through gerrymandering -
1999??

13. Disadvantages
• The FPTP system also entrenches the ‘monetization of
politics’ syndrome. The system puts the candidate in
the limelight and compels him or her to engage in
extravagant expenditures aimed at keeping votes or
winning new ones.
• System does not favour the election of women – Next
presentation by Mrs Emma Kaliya.
• In the event of a vacancy in Parliament, the system
demands a by-election and scales up the costs of
electoral administration.
• Requires review of constituency boundaries
periodically in relation to population – currently there

14. Constituency Demarcation
• The MEC is mandated and obliged by the Constitution
in Section 76 (2) to determine constituency boundaries
on the basis of approximately equal numbers of voters
eligible to register, subject to population density; ease
of communication; geographical features and existing
administrative areas.
• 76(2)(b) the MEC is mandated and obliged to review
constituency boundaries at intervals of not more than
5 years and alter them in accordance with the
principles provided in section 76(2)

15. Constituency Demarcation cont’d
• Last review published in January 1999
• Non compliance due to late appointments of
commissioners and lack of funding
• EC Strategic plan says review will be done in
2017 in preparation for the 2019 TPE
• Look out for gerrymandering: 1999 report
recommended 70 new constituencies: 11N,
17C, 42S. (247 member Parliament)

16. Is there a Case?
Voter population differences in smallest and largest constituencies
2014 2009 2004
Smallest constituency Likoma 6,842 Likoma 5,107 Likoma 4,794
Largest constituency Lilongwe City Central 99,629 Lilongwe City Central
87,088
Lilongwe North
71,081
Range 92,805 81,981 66,287
Mean constituency voter
population
7,537,548/193 = 39054.65 5,871,819/193 = 30423.93 5,752 028/193 =29,803

17. • The principle of political equality and equality of
population of eligible voters per constituency is
seriously undermined (over-representation in 111
constituencies; Underrepresentation in 82
constituencies.
• The findings on under-representation and over-representation
entail that there is need to rethink a
few things that are based on constituencies. For
instance, there is need to think of a formula of
differentiation in the allocation of Constituency
Development Fund (CDF) to make it variable with the
population.

18. • Preliminary calculations suggest that numbers
of constituencies must increase in 9 districts:
Dowa, Mchinji,Lilongwe,Dedza,Balaka and
Blantyre
• However, there is a strong enough opinion
that rather than increasing constituencies, the
country should be seeking ways of reducing
the number of seats in the National Assembly
(!).

19. Securing Legitimacy for a President
• The Two Round System (TRS) is also known by
other names, notably, ‘Run-off’, ‘double-ballot’
and ‘successive ballots.’
• Each of the names indicates a central feature of
the system: that it is not one election but takes
place in two rounds.
• The objective is for the wining candidate to be
elected by an ABSOLUTE MAJORITY of VALID
votes
• This system is commonly used in presidential
elections.

20. TRS Cont’d
Basic features
• Voters express a simple preference for a single
candidate just as in FPTP.
• If a candidate receives an absolute majority, he or
she is elected outright with no need for a second
ballot.
• Normally, in such a re-run, the top-most two
candidates contest
• In Kenya, in addition to a candidate obtaining an
absolute majority (50%+1), the candidate has also to
obtain at least 25% of the vote cast in at least half of
the provinces.

21. TRS- Advantages
• It allows voters to have a second choice for their
chosen candidate, or even to change their minds on
their favored choice.
• It encourages diverse interests to coalesce behind the
successful candidates from the first round in the build-up
to the second round, thus encouraging bargains and
trade-offs between parties and candidates.
• In countries like Kenya, where the TRS is combined
with the regional threshold requirement, the system
has the potential of ensuring that who ever wins has
not only an absolute majority, but also a relatively
balanced regional/provincial legitimacy.

22. TRS - DISADVANTAGES
• The system places considerable pressure on the
electoral administration to run a second election
soon after the first thereby significantly increasing
the overall cost of the election.
• It places an additional burden on the voter with
voter apathy affecting the second round – a lower
absolute majority may be worse off than a higher
simple majority.
•

23. TRS - DISADVANTAGES
• It shares many of the disadvantages of ‘first past
the post’. – wasted votes for losing candidate ;
voters losing with their candidate(RWANDA:
Ruling party no more than 51% of cabinet).
• In countries which are not politically stable, the
waiting period between the first and second
elections may pose a great danger as it may result
in political uncertainties which may have wider
political social and economic repercussions.

24. Conclusion
• Key Questions
– Retain FPTP or adopt PR?
– For presidential elections: Retain FPTP or adopt
TRS?
– Is it really about Electoral systems or system of
Government? Presidential, Parliamentary; Semi-presidential?
*** THANK YOU VERY MUCH***

25. INCLUSION & EXCLUSION OF
WOMEN

26. FPTP and Women
• Research has shown that this system does not
favour the election of women and other
marginalised groups
• Why do few women contest and even fewer get
elected under this formula?
• Constituency magnitude influences party
strategies and criteria for picking candidates -the
party has no chance to balance the party ticket to
take care of gender concerns or objectives.
• A party candidate will either be male or female
because the nominating decision is a strictly
‘zero-sum’ game

27. FPTP & Women
• Are local party elites to blame? -Not necessarily. They are
influenced by their perceptions about the probability of winning
the seat for their party
• Women who wish to be considered by the local party selection
committee have to contend with the selectors’ stereotypes and
sexist assumptions about the attributes of an ‘electable’ candidate
• The absolute number of female candidates is low but has been
growing.
– In 1999, it was 60 out of 666 nominees (9%)
– In 2004, it was 153 out of 1,365 (11.2%).
– In 2009, it was 239 (20.3%).
– In 2014 it is 257
• There is still lack of enthusiasm for political positions among
women (50/50 cannot just be in results!).

28. FPTP & Women
• Under FPTP any attempt by a political party to
increase the number of women MPs has to mean
selecting them for ‘safe’ or winnable seats.
– However, this inevitably means throwing out sitting
male MPs.
• The establishment of a new party seems to
provide opportunities for women because the
problem of de-selecting sitting MPs does not
arise.
• For example in 2004,NDA and RP fielded more
women candidates than AFORD and MCP. So too
DPP in 2009

29. Female Candidates in Parliamentary
elections
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
UDF
AFORD
MCP
MDP
NPF
UP
MDU
INDEPENDENT
CONU
PETRA
PPM
MGODE
MAFUNDE
NDA
RP
NSM
NUP
NCD
PFP
NARC
CODE
MPP
NRP
DPP
UMODZI
UIP
UP
PP
PDM
NCP
CCP
NLP
NASAF
CONTESTED
WINNERS
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014

30. FPTP & Women cont’d
• The cut-throat and personalized nature of the
system and the extent to which it hinges on
access to resources to run individual campaigns
for both primary and actual elections militate
against the participation of women
• This is the case because many women do not
have access to resources and are culturally
sensitive to flagrant personality attacks and
innuendos that are characteristic of political
campaigns.

31. FPTP & Women
• Numbers of women have increased
– 5.65% in 1994
– 8.8% in 1999
– 14% in 2004.
– 22% in 2009
• These results show that under FPTP gradual increases can
be achieved through positive action.
• Positive action seeks to encourage members of the group
suffering discrimination and to widen opportunities open to
them
• However the growth rate is far below the desired rate in
tandem with international, regional and national targets.
• In light of this, there have been calls for PR

32. Women & PR
• Why do countries with PR show a strong increase
in the number of female representatives?
– PR systems have consistently higher constituency
magnitudes, which lead to higher party magnitudes.
– PR systems (esp. LIST) makes parties more conscious
to balance their tickets. Gatekeepers divide winning
slots among various internal party interests – ANC in
South Africa; Frelimo in Mozambique
– PR systems focus on the party rather than on the
individual. Thus candidates are taken out of the direct
spotlight that is cited as a major disincentive to the
political participation of women under the FPTP
system.

33. Women & PR
• A PR system is superior for women if there
are low electoral thresholds as high ones
discourage the creation of mini parties, which
often let in few representatives, usually male.
• Closed party lists where the party determines
and ranks candidates have much potency in
delivering more women into Parliament. This
is the case because, once decided, women’s
names cannot be struck off or demoted.

34. Women & PR
• However, this depends on the criteria that political parties
use to select and place candidates on the party list.
• It only delivers more women if the party has adopted some
form of affirmative action in selecting its list candidates as
is the case in Mozambique and South Africa
• However, PR on its own does not guarantee increased
women’s presence in Parliament. It needs to be
complimented by deliberate gender quota systems, often
at the level of political party
• Thus the real magic resides not in the electoral system per
se but in affirmative action through quota systems

35. Affirmative Action Through Quotas
• There are constitutional (and/or statutory)
and voluntary quotas.
• With the former, women must constitute at
least a minimum proportion of the elected
representatives.
– Argentina and Brazil where quotas are fixed at
30% and 20% respectively
– Uganda: one woman per district
– Tanzania 20% of the seats in Parliament .

36. AA Through Quotas
• If the electoral system in use is FPTP, the quota
system reserves either ‘actual seats’ in the
Assembly, for example in Tanzania, or
constituencies, for example in Uganda.
• The second alternative is where political
parties adopt their own quotas for women as
parliamentary candidates. –but does not
guarantee election.

37. AA & Quotas
• Electoral quotas which revolve around
‘fielding female candidates’ work better with
PR than FPTP electoral systems in terms of
delivering results
• Quota systems that reserve ‘ actual seats’ or
‘constituencies’ work better with FPTP
systems.

38. Quota: Advantages
• Introducing quotas shows recognition that
women do not start out with the same
advantages as their male colleagues. They are
disadvantaged by the impact of inter-generational
institutional matrices, which
decisively reduce their chances for candidature,
and of being elected.
• With quotas, the burden of recruitment is shared
between those who run the recruitment process
and the individual women

39. AA & Quotas
• However, quotas are a much debated issue,
they raise serious questions and in some cases
strong resistance.
• Opinions vary even among women themselves
regarding their effects and fairness in
increasing women’s representation

40. Arguments for and Against Quota
Against
• They stigmatize and call into
question the caliber and
credentials of qualified
women who can be elected
on merit
For
• Women are free to contest for
constituency or ward seats on
merit
• Only women who have been
candidates but have not been
successful may be considered
for quota seats
• The problem is not that
women are not capable, it is
the fact that women are not
visible and audible in decision
making political structures

41. Arguments cont’d
Against
• They are against the
principle of equal
opportunities for all
For
• Liberal notion of equality of
opportunity does not translate
into actualized opportunities
for women because of social
and contextual factors
• Quota represents a shift of
focus from equality of
opportunity which assumes a
levelled playing field for men
and women to equality of
outcomes through direct and
exact means of achieving
societal goals

42. Arguments cont’d
Against
• They amount to sex
discrimination and
therefore unlawful and
unconstitutional
For
• The low numbers despite equality of
opportunity, show that there is systemic
sex discrimination in practice because
of social constraints on women that
limit their capacity to meaningfully use
equality of opportunity that is in the
laws
• Quota represents positive
discrimination in the sense that it does
not reduce opportunities for men but
increases opportunities for women
• Quota does not discriminate but
compensates for actual barriers that
prevent women from their fair share of
political seats.

43. Arguments cont’d
Against
• Quotas for women require
that other minority groups
should have quotas too
For
• The issue here is not that women are a
minority. The issue is that women are a
majority in our society but are
excluded;
• Social, poverty and demographic
indicators show that women are
disadvantaged in many respects which
suggests that the current levels of
representation are far below to effect
positive change hence the need for a
critical mass that will help
• Malawi have international obligations
and quota represents the best possible
method for delivering on those
commitments while lifting the profile of
women

44. A quota for Women in MW?
• If YEEES
• What matters most are the specific
administrative details for implementing
quotas. Thus the trick is to devise an
implementing strategy that upholds many
fundamental democratic values.

45. One Option for Mw
• Introduce quotas of magnitude 30% for both the National Assembly
and Local Government Councils.
• These will be additional seats to those that are based on
constituencies and wards respectively. Thus, women will be free to
contest for constituency and ward seats as they have always done
before. This quota will ensure that women constitute at least a
critical mass of 30%.
• The 30% additional seats should be distributed to political parties
based on a proportional formula that is tied to electoral results.
• There are two options for this. Either based on the proportion of
constituency seats won by parties or on the proportion of votes
won by parties that have seats in the national assembly or in the
local council.
• Introduce a threshold: only political parties that have at least 5% of
constituency seats will be eligible for a share of quota seats for
women

46. One option cont’d
• Eligible political parties will prepare and submit lists of names of
female candidates of their parties who lost in the constituency or
ward elections followed by those who lost in primary elections.
• The list of candidates must be in the order of priority based on the
proportion of votes that the candidates amassed in the election.
• Political parties will submit the lists of their Parliamentary
candidates to the MEC Chairperson (or Speaker of Parliament)who
will apply the formula of proportionality to determine how many
candidates from each political party will share the quota seats and
which candidates will actually take the seats.
• For local councils political parties will submit the lists of their local
government candidates to the Chairperson of Council who will
apply the formula of proportionality to determine how many
candidates from each political party will share the quota seats and
which candidates will actually take the seats.

47. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION