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POLICY CHALLENGES ON SCHOOL-TO-WORK TRANSITIONS
- 1. POLICY CHALLENGES ON SCHOOL-TO-WORK TRANSITIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE RESEARCH AGENDA Dirk Van Damme OECD/EDU/IMEP twitter @VanDammeEDU
- 2. 2 Employment gap for young people is high, and widening (in contrast to older age groups) Employment gap between 15-29 year-olds, not in education, and 25-59 year-olds Employment gap, 2015 (percent ↗) Changes in the employment gap, 2006-15 (percentage points)
- 3. 3 On average across OECD countries, 25% of 15-24 year-olds had a fixed-term contract Youth in temporary employment as a share of total employment in each age group (2013)
- 4. POLICY CHALLENGE: ENSURE GOOD FOUNDATION SKILLS AND BASE-LEVEL QUALIFICATIONS WHEN LEAVING SCHOOL 4
- 5. 16% of 25-34 year-olds do not have an upper secondary education, but it was 24% in 2000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Korea RussianFederation Poland Slovenia CzechRepublic SlovakRepublic Canada Lithuania Israel UnitedStates Switzerland Ireland Finland Austria Australia Estonia UnitedKingdom Germany Latvia France Luxembourg Flemishcom. Netherlands Hungary EU22average Greece OECDaverage NewZealand Denmark Chile Sweden Norway Iceland Frenchcom.* Italy Portugal SaudiArabia Colombia Argentina Spain Brazil Turkey CostaRica SouthAfrica Indonesia Mexico India China Educational attainment, 25-34 years-old (2016) Below upper secondary education Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education Tertiary education% 5
- 6. Completing upper secondary education is affected by social background and migration status Completion rate of upper secondary education by parents' educational background and students' immigrant status (2015) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Israel United States Netherlands France Flemish com. (Belgium) Finland Sweden Norway Below upper secondary (ISCED 0-2) Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary (ISCED 3-4) Tertiary (ISCED 5-8) 6
- 7. On average, employment rate is below 60% of 25-34 year-olds without an upper secondary education Employment rates of 25-34 year-olds, by educational attainment and programme orientation (2016) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Lithuania Iceland Netherlands Luxembourg Switzerland Argentina Austria Poland RussianFederation Latvia Germany UnitedKingdom Belgium Norway Sweden Israel NewZealand Brazil France Japan Canada Chile Australia UnitedStates Ireland Indonesia OECDaverage Denmark Hungary EU22average Portugal Colombia Slovenia Estonia CostaRica Finland Mexico SouthAfrica CzechRepublic SlovakRepublic Spain Korea Turkey Greece Italy SaudiArabia Below upper secondary Vocational General or no distinction Tertiary % 7
- 8. The unemployment rate of young adults who have not attained upper secondary education is nearly twice that for those who have Unemployment rates of 25-34 year-olds, by educational attainment (2016) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Hungary UnitedStates Iceland CzechRepublic Netherlands Lithuania UnitedKingdom Germany Japan Australia NewZealand Estonia Russian… Austria Luxembourg Switzerland Latvia Israel Norway Argentina Sweden Belgium Canada Poland Korea Ireland Brazil OECDaverage Mexico France Chile Finland SlovakRepublic EU22average CostaRica Indonesia Denmark Portugal Slovenia Colombia SouthAfrica Turkey Italy Spain SaudiArabia Greece Below upper secondary Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary Tertiary % 8
- 9. Employment prospects for those with below upper secondary education have been decreasing Trends in employment rates of 25-34 year-olds with below upper secondary education (2005 and 2016) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Iceland Portugal Luxembourg Switzerland Latvia Sweden Mexico NewZealand Argentina CostaRica Netherlands Estonia UnitedKingdom Denmark Norway Spain Korea UnitedStates OECDaverage Austria Slovenia Canada EU22average Lithuania Australia Germany Hungary Turkey Israel Belgium Italy Greece Finland France CzechRepublic Poland Ireland SlovakRepublic 2005 2016% 9
- 10. 10 Compulsory education does not make a huge difference in keeping young people in education Percentage of the population in education, by ending age of compulsory education and age group (2015)
- 11. 11 The wage penalty for youth comes mainly from underskilling Wages and mismatch, by age group and type of mismatch
- 12. 12 Besides low qualifications and low skills, also mismatch contributes to job insecurity and low wages 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 % Field of study and qualification Qualification only Literacy and qualification Literacy and field of study Field of study only Literacy only Literacy, qualification and field of study Total mismatch among youth (16-29) by type of mismatch, as percentage of all youth in employment
- 13. QUESTION: IS VOCATIONAL EDUCATION PROVIDING BETTER PROSPECTS FOR VULNERABLE YOUTH? 13
- 14. 14 26% of 15-19 year-olds are enrolled in vocational programmes across OECD countries 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Ireland Lithuania Slovenia SaudiArabia Netherlands Poland Australia Latvia Belgium CzechRepublic Estonia Portugal Germany Iceland EU22average Spain Denmark Finland Norway Korea Sweden Switzerland France Hungary SlovakRepublic UnitedKingdom OECDaverage Italy RussianFederation NewZealand UnitedStates Chile Austria Indonesia Luxembourg Argentina Turkey Canada Brazil Israel China Mexico CostaRica Colombia India ISCED 3 - General programmes ISCED 3 - Vocational programmes ISCED 3 - No breakdown Other than ISCED 3 Enrolment rates of 15-19 year-olds, by programme level and orientation (2015)
- 15. 15 The impact of vocational education on the young work force differs very much across countries 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Israel Korea Indonesia Chile Sweden Slovenia Turkey SlovakRepublic Mexico Italy CostaRica France Brazil Hungary Austria Lithuania Belgium Greece Portugal Estonia OECDaverage EU22average Luxembourg CzechRepublic Netherlands Switzerland Spain Germany NewZealand Norway Finland Ireland Poland Australia Latvia Canada Denmark % 50 year olds and older 40 to 49 year olds 30 to 39 year olds 25 to 29 year olds 20 to 24 year olds Younger than 20 years old Share of upper secondary graduates from vocational programmes, by age group (2015)
- 16. 16 Completing vocational tracks with an upper secondary qualification seems more difficult than for general tracks 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Ireland Israel Estonia Flemishcom.… Finland NewZealand Norway Sweden Average France Latvia Netherlands Luxembourg Chile Austria Brazil Portugal Korea Japan SlovakRepublic Poland Lithuania Greece Average Hungary Spain Mexico Completion for general programmes by the theoretical duration Completion for vocational programmes by the theoretical duration True cohort Cross cohort Cross-cohort completion for general programmes Cross-cohort completion for vocational programmes Completion rate of upper secondary education by programme orientation (2015)
- 17. 17 Some countries have successfully developed work- study programmes 23 60 63 70 52 28 22 6 25 12 16 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 France Germany Austria Switzerland Work-study programmes School-based programmes General programmes % Percentage of 25-34 year-olds with upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education, by programme orientation and type of vocational programmes (2015)
- 18. 18 Students from these programmes have better employment prospects than those from general programmes, at least in the beginning of their careers 40 50 60 70 80 90 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Austria Work-study programmes School-based programmes General programmes 40 50 60 70 80 90 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Switzerland% 40 50 60 70 80 90 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 France% 40 50 60 70 80 90 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Germany %
- 19. POLICY CHALLENGE: ENSURE SMOOTH TRANSITION TO WORK AND PREVENT NEET 19
- 20. 15% of 18-24 year-olds were neither in employment nor in education or training in 2016 Percentage of 18-24 year-olds in education/not in education, employed, unemployed or inactive (2016) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Slovenia Denmark Luxembourg Netherlands Greece Germany Lithuania Belgium Spain Switzerland SlovakRepublic Finland Estonia Portugal Ireland Sweden France Italy Australia OECDaverage Iceland Chile Hungary Norway Latvia Austria Canada UnitedStates NewZealand CostaRica RussianFederation Poland UnitedKingdom Turkey Mexico Colombia Israel In education Not in education and employed Not in education and unemployed Not in education and inactive 20
- 21. Percentage NEET by skills-level PIAAC, 2012-15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 SlovakRepublic Turkey Greece Spain Ireland England(UK) France NorthernIreland(UK) Finland Jakarta(Indonesia) NewZealand Lithuania EU22average OECDaverage Australia Poland Chile Israel Estonia Italy CzechRepublic Slovenia Korea Sweden Canada Netherlands Norway Austria Germany Denmark UnitedStates Singapore RussianFederation Flanders(Belgium) Japan % Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 or 5 21
- 22. Young adults with lower literacy and numeracy levels have more difficulty transitioning into the labour market Estonia Finland Japan Canada Denmark Ireland Norway Germany Poland NetherlandsPortugal Sweden Australia Switzerland Belgium Czech Republic Spain Iceland United States United Kingdom Lithuania France Italy Hungary Israel Greece Slovak Republic Chile Mexico Turkey Costa Rica Colombia Brazil Austria R² = 0.641 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Literacy proficiency below Level 2 (%) Low share of NEETs Low share of low skilled students High share of NEETs High share of low skilled students Low share of NEETs High share of low skilled students OECD Average OECDAverage High share of NEETs Low share of low skilled students Percentage of 15-19 year-old NEETs (2016) and percentage of 15-year-old students with low literacy skills (2015) 22
- 23. 23 The share of NEETs has remained relatively stable on average across OECD countries in the past decade Trends in the percentage of 20-24 year-old NEETs (2005 and 2016) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Turkey Italy Brazil Spain Greece Mexico Colombia CostaRica France Portugal Chile Ireland Latvia Poland Israel Hungary Finland Russian… Belgium Slovak… OECDaverage UnitedStates United… Canada Lithuania Estonia Austria NewZealand Slovenia Australia Czech… Norway Sweden Germany Switzerland Japan Luxembourg Denmark Netherlands Iceland 2005 2016%
- 24. POLICY CHALLENGE: FOSTER LEARNING AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL 24
- 25. 25 Being out of education is associated with lower skills Mean literacy and numeracy score, by age and education status (2012 or 2015)
- 26. 26 The probability of having low literacy skills, 16-29 years-olds (PIAAC, 2012) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Write at work Write at home Read at work Read at home ICT at work Numerical skills at work Use of skills: One parent foreign-born against both parents native-born Both parents foreing-born against both parents native-born At least one parent has attained tertiary education against neither of them At least one parent has attained secondary education against neither of them Native speaker against non native speaker Native-born against foreign-born Social background: Tertiary education against lower secondary education or less Upper secondary education against lower secondary education or less Education attainment: The probability increases The probability decreases
- 27. Experience or time in employment has a huge impact on labour market success and earnings, PIAAC, 2012-15 % Estonia Korea CzechRepublic Jakarta(Indonesia) Japan SlovakRepublic Lithuania Israel Sweden Chile OECDaverage Turkey Spain Italy Denmark Austria Australia Greece Norway Cyprus¹² Ireland England(UK) NorthernIreland(UK) Germany Poland Slovenia UnitedStates NewZealand Canada Flanders(Belgium) France Finland Netherlands Singapore 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Proficiency (literacy and numeracy) Education Field of study Experience Individualcharacteristics 27
- 28. Many work environments do not actively support using skills 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Italy Poland Slovak Republic Cyprus¹ ² Czech Republic Spain Estonia Flanders (Belgium) Ireland Average Austria Netherlands Korea Germany Japan Denmark England/N. Ireland (UK) Canada Sweden United States Finland Norway Australia Numeracy at Work Writing at Work Reading at Work 28
- 29. Or cannot be identified as ‘learning organisations’ 29
- 30. POLICY CHALLENGE: CONCENTRATE SUPPORT SYSTEMS ON THOSE WHO NEED THEM MOST 30
- 31. 31 Skills gap widens when ageing Age-by proficiency profile in numeracy in PIAAC (16-34 year-olds), by parental educational attainment
- 32. 32 In most countries the skills gap by parents’ educational attainment widens between 15 and 26 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Standardised gap 15 year-olds (PISA) 26-28 year-olds (PIAAC) Disparities in literacy between individuals with and without tertiary educated parents at the age of 15 and for 26-28 year-olds PISA 2000 (15-year-olds) and PIAAC 2012 or 2015 (26-28 year-olds)
- 34. • Longitudinal studies charting the trajectories of various youth categories in education and from education to work • Skills development – and the factors that impact on it – for vulnerable youth beyond school; can skills compensate for qualifications? • The prospects of vocational tracks for vulnerable youth • Impact of institutional support mechanisms during the transition 34 Research challenges
- 35. Thank you ! dirk.vandamme@oecd.org www.oecd.org/edu/ceri twitter @VanDammeEDU 35