Автономная доставка товара: новая реальность
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Презентация Елизаветы Моор, директора по развитию Gartner RUS, с Бизнес-завтрака UPGRADE 25|01|2017 "Новые форматы доставки с использованием краудсорсинга"
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Автономная доставка товара: новая реальность
- 1. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Автономная доставка товара: новая реальность • Елизавета Моор • Директор по развитию бизнеса Gartner в России • 25 января 2016
- 2. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. К 2020 году заработает не менее трех экосистем автономной доставки Как подготовиться за оставшиеся 3 года?
- 3. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Что произошло за 2016 год? • UAVGlobal: 449 производителей дронов • MIT: пилот nuTonomy – такси без водителя в Сингапуре • Uber: пилот автономных такси в США • European Truck Platooning Challenge: DAF Trucks, Daimler Trucks, Iveco, MAN Truck & Bus, Scania и Volvo Group • Rolls-Royce Marine: публикация концепции автономных кораблей на дистанционном управлении
- 4. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Какие сценарии уже работают? Первый полностью автоматический вагон метро: Нью-Йорк, 1961 Логистика: автоматизированные склады Буксировка груза в шахте: с 2007 в Рио Тинто, +500 часов работы в год, минус расходы на зарплату и проживание водителя, минус человеческий фактор Автономный транспорт: Uber тестирует, Tesla запустила Autopilot Автономные дальнобойные грузовики: Uber обещает «через пару лет», Tesla разрабатывает Последняя миля: дроны для Domino’s Pizza, Amazon и DHL в США, роботы для Pronto, Hermes и Metro в Европе, VTOL UAV в армии, автономная лодка Roboat в Амстердаме в 2017.
- 5. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Кривая зрелости для автономной доставки
- 6. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Открытые вопросы Законодательное регулирование использования автономной доставки последней мили Оценка изменения загруженности дорог Законодательное регулирование использования автономного транспорта Март 2016: Европейская экономическая комиссия ООН Изменения в Венской конвенции о дорожном движении Сентябрь 2016: Департамент транспорта США и Национальное управление безопасностью движения на трассах Публикация Федеральной политики по автоматизированным транспортным средствам
- 7. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. «Интернет заказов вещей» Резкие флуктуации объемов продаж Рост нагрузки на системы доставки Новые логистические хабы и маршруты Меньше пустых рейсов, дешевле перевозка Изменение организации доставки Потенциал роста утилизации ресурсов Ожидание клиентами доставки 24/7 Как автономная дистрибуция повлияет на нас?
- 8. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Нам нужен план! «Интернет заказов вещей» Резкие флуктуации объемов продаж Рост нагрузки на системы доставки Новые логистические хабы и маршруты Меньше пустых рейсов, дешевле перевозка Изменение организации доставки Потенциал роста утилизации ресурсов Ожидание клиентами доставки 24/7
- 9. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Нам нужен план! Анализ алгоритмов отслеживания спроса, товарных запасов и затрат на обслуживание Переоценка географии продаж и выход на новые рынки Акцент на систему распределения товара и обслуживания технологий Анализ рынка: эксперименты, быстрое реагирование, матметоды Резкие флуктуации объемов продаж Рост нагрузки на системы доставки Новые логистические хабы и маршруты Меньше пустых рейсов, дешевле перевозка
- 10. © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Рекомендованные исследования 1. Consumer Goods CIOs Must Prepare for Autonomous Distribution 08 November 2016, Ivar M Berntz 2. Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017 14 October 2016, David W. Cearley, Mike J. Walker, Brian Burke 3. Predicts 2017: Global Logistics Are Embracing New Business Models to Remain Competitively Relevant 09 November 2016, C. Dwight Klappich, Greg Aimi, Christian Titze, David Gonzalez, William McNeill 4. Thing Commerce: IoT-Enabled Digital Commerce 19 July 2016, Sandy Shen, Jason Daigler 5. Identify Digital Business Elements Guaranteed to Be Challenged by Regulators 03 March 2016 Ken McGee, Kristian Steenstrup
Editor's Notes
- "Things" will increasingly be placing the orders; thus, consumer goods stock-outs could lead to sharp market share swings as those things look for alternate sources — unless companies source goods themselves via a broker network. The emergence of AD will force changes in consumer goods companies' physical and organizational structures, such as the redrawing of sales territories, logistics hub placements and routes. AD will enable CIOs in consumer goods companies to attain higher asset utilization, which should help reduce empty runs and freight costs. AD will increase pressure on CIOs in consumer goods companies to provide 24/7 delivery as customers come to expect it. Recommendations CIOs in consumer goods companies focused on building or expanding a digital business: Lead the discovery effort of examining the competition, clients and prospects to determine which needs and new business models can be met by AD. Redefine the addressable market geographic market boundaries (for example, via geomapping), in light of autonomous vehicles range, customer density, order volume potential, regulatory constraints and costs. Prepare processes and systems to adequately incorporate, service, maintain and repair the technologies employed in autonomous and unmanned devices. Invest in R&D to enhance the advanced analytics capabilities required to review the methods and algorithms used to forecast and track AD demand, inventory levels and cost to serve.
- "Things" will increasingly be placing the orders; thus, consumer goods stock-outs could lead to sharp market share swings as those things look for alternate sources — unless companies source goods themselves via a broker network. The emergence of AD will force changes in consumer goods companies' physical and organizational structures, such as the redrawing of sales territories, logistics hub placements and routes. AD will enable CIOs in consumer goods companies to attain higher asset utilization, which should help reduce empty runs and freight costs. AD will increase pressure on CIOs in consumer goods companies to provide 24/7 delivery as customers come to expect it. Recommendations CIOs in consumer goods companies focused on building or expanding a digital business: Lead the discovery effort of examining the competition, clients and prospects to determine which needs and new business models can be met by AD. Redefine the addressable market geographic market boundaries (for example, via geomapping), in light of autonomous vehicles range, customer density, order volume potential, regulatory constraints and costs. Prepare processes and systems to adequately incorporate, service, maintain and repair the technologies employed in autonomous and unmanned devices. Invest in R&D to enhance the advanced analytics capabilities required to review the methods and algorithms used to forecast and track AD demand, inventory levels and cost to serve.
- "Things" will increasingly be placing the orders; thus, consumer goods stock-outs could lead to sharp market share swings as those things look for alternate sources — unless companies source goods themselves via a broker network. The emergence of AD will force changes in consumer goods companies' physical and organizational structures, such as the redrawing of sales territories, logistics hub placements and routes. AD will enable CIOs in consumer goods companies to attain higher asset utilization, which should help reduce empty runs and freight costs. AD will increase pressure on CIOs in consumer goods companies to provide 24/7 delivery as customers come to expect it. Recommendations CIOs in consumer goods companies focused on building or expanding a digital business: Lead the discovery effort of examining the competition, clients and prospects to determine which needs and new business models can be met by AD. Redefine the addressable market geographic market boundaries (for example, via geomapping), in light of autonomous vehicles range, customer density, order volume potential, regulatory constraints and costs. Prepare processes and systems to adequately incorporate, service, maintain and repair the technologies employed in autonomous and unmanned devices. Invest in R&D to enhance the advanced analytics capabilities required to review the methods and algorithms used to forecast and track AD demand, inventory levels and cost to serve.
- "Things" will increasingly be placing the orders; thus, consumer goods stock-outs could lead to sharp market share swings as those things look for alternate sources — unless companies source goods themselves via a broker network. The emergence of AD will force changes in consumer goods companies' physical and organizational structures, such as the redrawing of sales territories, logistics hub placements and routes. AD will enable CIOs in consumer goods companies to attain higher asset utilization, which should help reduce empty runs and freight costs. AD will increase pressure on CIOs in consumer goods companies to provide 24/7 delivery as customers come to expect it. Recommendations CIOs in consumer goods companies focused on building or expanding a digital business: Lead the discovery effort of examining the competition, clients and prospects to determine which needs and new business models can be met by AD. Redefine the addressable market geographic market boundaries (for example, via geomapping), in light of autonomous vehicles range, customer density, order volume potential, regulatory constraints and costs. Prepare processes and systems to adequately incorporate, service, maintain and repair the technologies employed in autonomous and unmanned devices. Invest in R&D to enhance the advanced analytics capabilities required to review the methods and algorithms used to forecast and track AD demand, inventory levels and cost to serve.
- "Things" will increasingly be placing the orders; thus, consumer goods stock-outs could lead to sharp market share swings as those things look for alternate sources — unless companies source goods themselves via a broker network. The emergence of AD will force changes in consumer goods companies' physical and organizational structures, such as the redrawing of sales territories, logistics hub placements and routes. AD will enable CIOs in consumer goods companies to attain higher asset utilization, which should help reduce empty runs and freight costs. AD will increase pressure on CIOs in consumer goods companies to provide 24/7 delivery as customers come to expect it. Recommendations CIOs in consumer goods companies focused on building or expanding a digital business: Lead the discovery effort of examining the competition, clients and prospects to determine which needs and new business models can be met by AD. Redefine the addressable market geographic market boundaries (for example, via geomapping), in light of autonomous vehicles range, customer density, order volume potential, regulatory constraints and costs. Prepare processes and systems to adequately incorporate, service, maintain and repair the technologies employed in autonomous and unmanned devices. Invest in R&D to enhance the advanced analytics capabilities required to review the methods and algorithms used to forecast and track AD demand, inventory levels and cost to serve.
- "Things" will increasingly be placing the orders; thus, consumer goods stock-outs could lead to sharp market share swings as those things look for alternate sources — unless companies source goods themselves via a broker network. The emergence of AD will force changes in consumer goods companies' physical and organizational structures, such as the redrawing of sales territories, logistics hub placements and routes. AD will enable CIOs in consumer goods companies to attain higher asset utilization, which should help reduce empty runs and freight costs. AD will increase pressure on CIOs in consumer goods companies to provide 24/7 delivery as customers come to expect it. Recommendations CIOs in consumer goods companies focused on building or expanding a digital business: Lead the discovery effort of examining the competition, clients and prospects to determine which needs and new business models can be met by AD. Redefine the addressable market geographic market boundaries (for example, via geomapping), in light of autonomous vehicles range, customer density, order volume potential, regulatory constraints and costs. Prepare processes and systems to adequately incorporate, service, maintain and repair the technologies employed in autonomous and unmanned devices. Invest in R&D to enhance the advanced analytics capabilities required to review the methods and algorithms used to forecast and track AD demand, inventory levels and cost to serve.
- "Things" will increasingly be placing the orders; thus, consumer goods stock-outs could lead to sharp market share swings as those things look for alternate sources — unless companies source goods themselves via a broker network. The emergence of AD will force changes in consumer goods companies' physical and organizational structures, such as the redrawing of sales territories, logistics hub placements and routes. AD will enable CIOs in consumer goods companies to attain higher asset utilization, which should help reduce empty runs and freight costs. AD will increase pressure on CIOs in consumer goods companies to provide 24/7 delivery as customers come to expect it. Recommendations CIOs in consumer goods companies focused on building or expanding a digital business: Lead the discovery effort of examining the competition, clients and prospects to determine which needs and new business models can be met by AD. Redefine the addressable market geographic market boundaries (for example, via geomapping), in light of autonomous vehicles range, customer density, order volume potential, regulatory constraints and costs. Prepare processes and systems to adequately incorporate, service, maintain and repair the technologies employed in autonomous and unmanned devices. Invest in R&D to enhance the advanced analytics capabilities required to review the methods and algorithms used to forecast and track AD demand, inventory levels and cost to serve.
- "Things" will increasingly be placing the orders; thus, consumer goods stock-outs could lead to sharp market share swings as those things look for alternate sources — unless companies source goods themselves via a broker network. The emergence of AD will force changes in consumer goods companies' physical and organizational structures, such as the redrawing of sales territories, logistics hub placements and routes. AD will enable CIOs in consumer goods companies to attain higher asset utilization, which should help reduce empty runs and freight costs. AD will increase pressure on CIOs in consumer goods companies to provide 24/7 delivery as customers come to expect it. Recommendations CIOs in consumer goods companies focused on building or expanding a digital business: Lead the discovery effort of examining the competition, clients and prospects to determine which needs and new business models can be met by AD. Redefine the addressable market geographic market boundaries (for example, via geomapping), in light of autonomous vehicles range, customer density, order volume potential, regulatory constraints and costs. Prepare processes and systems to adequately incorporate, service, maintain and repair the technologies employed in autonomous and unmanned devices. Invest in R&D to enhance the advanced analytics capabilities required to review the methods and algorithms used to forecast and track AD demand, inventory levels and cost to serve.