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WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM



 2011 Wind Technologies Market Report




Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger
                                       Report Summary
           Lawrence Berkeley
                                        August 2012
           National Laboratory
                                                               1
Program Name or Ancillary Text
Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy                            1
                                                  eere.energy.gov
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Presentation Overview
•  Introduction to current edition of
   U.S. wind energy market report
•  Wind Energy Market Trends
   –  Installation trends
   –  Industry trends
   –  Cost trends
   –  Performance trends
   –  Wind power price trends
   –  Policy and market drivers
   –  Future outlook
                                        2
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
Purpose, Scope, and Data:
 •  With a focus on 2011, summarize trends in the U.S. wind power market,
    including information on wind installations, industry developments, project
    costs, O&M costs, performance, power sales prices, policy/market trends

 •  Scope primarily includes wind turbines over 100 kW in size

 •  Data sources include AWEA, EIA, FERC, SEC, etc. (see full report)

Report Authors:
 •  Primary authors: Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, Berkeley Lab

 •  Contributions from others at Berkeley Lab, Exeter Assoc., NREL

Available at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/
                                                                                  3
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


New to the Current Edition of the Report
•  Summary of trends in the wind resource conditions in which
   wind power projects have been sited

•  Expanded discussion of how the reporting of power sales
   prices impacts the apparent pricing of wind, including new
   data on full-term power purchase agreement pricing

•  Shortened discussion of offshore wind energy à companion
   report funded by the U.S. Department of Energy focused
   exclusively on offshore wind will be published later this year


                                                                    4
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Key Findings
•  Wind is a credible source of new generation in the U.S.
•  Despite the lack of policy clarity, turbine manufacturers and
   their suppliers continued to localize production in 2011
•  Turbine scaling has boosted wind project capacity factors
•  Falling wind turbine prices have begun to push installed project
   costs lower
•  Lower wind turbine prices and installed project costs, along
   with improved capacity factors, are enabling aggressive wind
   power pricing
•  Looking ahead, projections are for continued strong growth in
   2012, followed by a dramatically lower but uncertain 2013
                                                                      5
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM




              Installation Trends




                                    6
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Wind Power Additions Increased in 2011,
but Remained Below 2008 and 2009 Levels
                       10                                                                                                           50

                       9                  Annual US Capacity (left scale)                                                           45

                       8                  Cumulative US Capacity (right scale)                                                      40




                                                                                                                                         Cumulative Capacity (GW)
Annual Capacity (GW)




                       7                                                                                                            35

                       6                                                                                                            30

                       5                                                                                                            25
                       4                                                                                                            20

                       3                                                                                                            15

                       2                                                                                                            10

                       1                                                                                                            5

                       0                                                                                                            0
                            1998


                                   1999


                                             2000


                                                     2001


                                                            2002


                                                                    2003


                                                                            2004


                                                                                   2005


                                                                                          2006


                                                                                                 2007


                                                                                                        2008


                                                                                                               2009


                                                                                                                      2010


                                                                                                                             2011
•  6.8 GW of wind power added in 2011 in U.S., 31% higher than in 2010
•  $14 billion invested in wind power project additions
•  Cumulative wind power capacity up by 16%, bringing total to 47 GW                                                                                                7
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Wind Power Comprised 32% of Electric
Generating Capacity Additions in 2011
                                       100                                                                    50%
Total Annual Capacity Additions (GW)




                                                                                                                    (%	
  of	
  Total	
   Annual	
  Capacity	
  Additions)
                                        80                                                                    40%




                                                                                                                                 Wind	
  Capacity	
  Additions
                                        60                                                                    30%


                                        40                                                                    20%


                                        20                                                                    10%


                                         0                                                                    0%
                                             2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

                                             Wind                  Gas                    Coal
                                             Other Renewable       Other Non-Renewable    Wind (% of Total)

•  Wind power in 2011 was again the 2nd-largest resource added
   (after gas, and for the 6th time in the past seven years)                                                                                                                 8
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


China Was 1st and the U.S. Was 2nd in Both
New and Cumulative Wind Power Capacity
                      Annual Capacity                      Cumulative Capacity
                        (2011, MW)                          (end of 2011, MW)
              China                        17,631     China                 62,412
              U.S.                          6,816     U.S.                  46,916
              India                         3,300     Germany               29,248
              Germany                       2,007     Spain                 21,350
              U.K.                          1,293     India                 16,266
              Canada                        1,267     U.K.                    7,155
              Spain                         1,050     France                  6,836
              Italy                           950     Italy                   6,733
              France                          875     Canada                  5,278
              Sweden                          763     Portugal                4,214
              Rest of World                 5,766     Rest of World         34,453
              TOTAL                        41,718     TOTAL                240,861
              Source: BTM Consult; AWEA project database for U.S. capacity

•  Global wind power capacity additions in 2011 up 6% from 2010 level
•  U.S. additions = 16% of global additions in 2011, up from 13% in 2010
   but down from 26-30% from 2007 through 2009                          9
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


U.S. Lagging Other Countries in Wind As a
Percentage of Electricity Consumption   30%
                                        28%                                                                                         Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2011
                                        26%
Proportion of Electricity Consumption




                                                                                                                                    Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2010
  Estimated Wind Generation as a




                                        24%
                                        22%
                                                                                                                                    Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2009
                                        20%                                                                                         Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2008
                                        18%                                                                                         Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2007
                                        16%
                                                                                                                                    Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2006
                                        14%
                                        12%
                                        10%
                                        8%
                                        6%
                                        4%
                                        2%
                                        0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    TOTAL
                                                                                                                                    Italy




                                                                                                                                                                                     Turkey
                                                                                                                                            India
                                                                           Ireland




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Brazil
                                                                                                                                                             U.S.




                                                                                                                                                                             China
                                                                   Spain




                                                                                               Greece




                                                                                                                                                                    France
                                                                                                                                                    Poland




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Canada




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Japan
                                                                                                                                                                                              Australia
                                                                                                        UK
                                                        Portugal




                                                                                     Germany




                                                                                                                      Netherlands
                                                                                                             Sweden
                                              Denmark




Note: Figure only includes the 20 countries with the most installed wind
power capacity at the end of 2011                                       10
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Geographic Spread of Wind Power Projects
in the United States Is Reasonably Broad




         Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in parentheses, annual additions in 2011.   11
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


California Added the Most Wind Capacity in
2011; Six States Exceed 10% Wind Energy
                      Capacity (MW)                                           Percentage of In-State Generation
       Annual (2011)             Cumulative (end of 2011)                 Actual (2011)*             Estimated (end of 2011)**        At end of 2011:
 California          921         Texas           10,394             South Dakota     22.3%          South Dakota        22.1%
 Illinois
 Iowa
                     692
                     647
                                 Iowa
                                 California
                                                  4,322
                                                  3,917
                                                                    Iowa
                                                                    North Dakota
                                                                                     18.8%
                                                                                     14.7%
                                                                                                    Iowa
                                                                                                    Minnesota
                                                                                                                        20.0%
                                                                                                                        14.9%
                                                                                                                                      •  Texas continued to
 Minnesota           542         Illinois         2,742             Minnesota        12.7%          North Dakota        14.1%            lead in cumulative
 Oklahoma            525         Minnesota        2,718             Wyoming          10.1%          Colorado            10.7%
 Colorado            506         Washington       2,573             Colorado           9.2%         Oregon              10.5%            capacity, by a large
 Oregon              409         Oregon           2,513             Kansas             8.2%         Idaho                9.7%
 Washington          367         Oklahoma         2,007             Idaho              8.2%         Kansas               9.2%            margin
 Texas               297         Colorado         1,805             Oregon             8.2%         Oklahoma             9.1%
 Idaho               265         North Dakota     1,445             Oklahoma           7.1%         Wyoming              8.8%         •  20 states had >500
 Michigan            213         Wyoming          1,412             Texas              6.9%         Texas                7.3%
 Kansas              200         New York         1,403             New Mexico         5.4%         Maine                6.5%            MW of capacity (8
 Wisconsin           162         Indiana          1,340             Washington         5.3%         New Mexico           5.8%
 West Virginia       134         Kansas           1,274             Maine              4.5%         Washington           5.5%            had >2000 MW)
 Maine               131         Pennsylvania       789             Montana            4.2%         California           4.7%
 New York            129         South Dakota       784             California         4.0%         Montana              3.8%         •  2 states had the
 Nebraska
 Utah
                     125
                     102
                                 New Mexico
                                 Wisconsin
                                                    750
                                                    631
                                                                    Illinois
                                                                    Hawaii
                                                                                       3.1%
                                                                                       3.1%
                                                                                                    Illinois
                                                                                                    Hawaii
                                                                                                                         3.7%
                                                                                                                         3.7%
                                                                                                                                         ability to provide
 Ohio                102         Idaho              618             Nebraska           2.9%         Indiana              3.0%            >20% of total in-state
 South Dakota
 Rest of U.S.
                      75
                     274
                                 West Virginia
                                 Rest of U.S.
                                                    564
                                                  2,915
                                                                    Indiana
                                                                    Rest of U.S.
                                                                                       2.7%
                                                                                       0.4%
                                                                                                    Nebraska
                                                                                                    Rest of U.S.
                                                                                                                         2.9%
                                                                                                                         0.5%
                                                                                                                                         generation from wind
 TOTAL                6,816      TOTAL                 46,916       TOTAL                2.9%       TOTAL                     3.2%       (6 states >10%, 14
* Based on 2011 wind and total generation by state from EIA’s Electric Power Monthly.
** Based on a projection of wind electricity generation from end-of-2011 wind power capacity, divided by total in-state electricity
                                                                                                                                         states >5%)
generation in 2011.
Source: AWEA project database, EIA, Berkeley Lab estimates                                                                                                      12
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


No Offshore Turbines Commissioned in the
U.S., But 10 Projects Totaling 3.8 GW Are
Somewhat More Advanced in Development
                               •  Two projects have
                                  power purchase
                                  agreements (PPAs):
                                   •  Cape Wind (MA)
                                   •  Deepwater (RI)
                               •  Nation’s first offshore
                                  wind power PPA
                                  cancelled in 2011:
                                  NRG Bluewater (DE)

                                                        13
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Roughly 220 GW of Wind Power Capacity in
Transmission Interconnection Queues
                          250
                                              Entered queue in 2011    Total in queue at end of 2011

                          200
Nameplate Capacity (GW)




                                                     1.5 times as much wind power as next-largest
                                                     resource (natural gas) in sampled 41 queues
                          150
                                                     But… absolute amount of wind (and coal) in
                                                     sampled queues has declined in recent years
                          100                        whereas natural gas and solar capacity has
                                                     increased

                           50


                            0
                                Wind   Natural Gas    Solar       Nuclear       Coal         Other

   Not all of this capacity will be built….
                                                                                                       14
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


96% Planned for Midwest, PJM, Texas,
Mountain, Northwest, Southwest Power
Pool, and California
                                     50
Nameplate Wind Power Capacity (GW)




                                     45                               Entered queue in 2011       Total in queue at end of 2011
                                     40
                                     35
                                     30
                                     25
                                     20
                                     15
                                     10
                                      5
                                      0
                                          MISO /    PJM   ERCOT Mountain Northwest   SPP      California New York ISO-New Southeast
                                          Midwest                                               ISO        ISO     England

               Not all of this capacity will be built….                                                                               15
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM




                 Industry Trends




                                   16
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Despite Ongoing Proliferation of New Entrants,
“Big 3” Turbine Suppliers Gained Market Share
                                            100%
                                                                                                    Other
   Turbine Manufacturer U.S. Market Share




                                            90%                                                     Acciona
                                            80%                                                     Gamesa

                                            70%                                                     REpower

                                            60%                                                     Clipper

                                            50%                                                     Nordex

                                            40%                                                     Mitsubishi

                                            30%                                                     Suzlon

                                                                                                    Siemens
                                            20%
                                                                                                    Vestas
                                            10%
                                                                                                    GE Wind
                                             0%
                                                   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011
•  Increase in number of turbine vendors serving market since 2005, but top
   three (in aggregate) have gained market share since 2008-09
•  2011 installations by Chinese and South Korean manufacturers included:
   Sany Electric, Samsung, Goldwind, Hyundai, Sinovel, and Unison                                                17
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


U.S. Wind Manufacturing Has Increased,
but Supply Chain Is Under Severe Pressure
                                             •  Larger number of new
                                                manufacturing facilities
                                                opened in 2011 than in
                                                2010
                                             •  8 of 10 turbine OEMs
                                                with largest share of
                                                U.S. market in 2011
                                                had one or more
                                                manufacturing facilities
                                                in the U.S. in 2011; only
                                                one major OEM had
                                                U.S. manufacturing in
                                                2004

Note: map is not intended to be exhaustive                             18
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Substantial Over-Capacity of U.S. Nacelle
Assembly Capability in 2011, with Even
Greater Over-Capacity Possible After 2012
                                                                                                                                         •  Substantial growth in wind
                                                  14
                                                                                                                                            capacity additions in 2012, but
  Wind Turbine Nacelle Assembly Capacity in the




                                                                                                                                            weakened prospects after 2012
   U.S. (and Wind Turbine Installations) (GW)




                                                  12                                                                     Other

                                                  10                                                                     Nordex          •  75,000 full time workers
                                                   8                                                                     Gamesa             employed directly or indirectly in
                                                                                                                         Siemens
                                                                                                                                            wind industry…but layoffs have
                                                   6
                                                                                                                                            begun, and more are likely
                                                                                                                         Vestas
                                                   4
                                                                                                                                         •  Downward pressure on turbine
                                                                                                                         GE
                                                   2                                                                                        and component pricing à lower
                                                   0
                                                                                                                         U.S. Turbine
                                                                                                                         Installations      profit margins & weakened
                                                       2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012e   2013e   2014e                      financial results
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance




                                                                                                                                                                              19
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Estimated U.S. Imports of Wind-Related
Equipment Increased Somewhat in 2011
Relative to 2010; Exports Held Steady	

                   7   Estimated US Imports:
                                                                                Exports of Wind-Powered
                        Other Wind Turbine Components                           Generating Sets
                   6    Towers
                        Wind-Powered Generating Sets
                   5
Billion US $2011




                   4


                   3


                   2


                   1


                   0
                         2005         2006         2007      2008      2009       2010         2011
                       2375 MW      2454 MW      5249 MW   8361 MW   10000 MW   5214 MW      6816 MW      20
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Source Markets for Imports Have Varied
Over Time, and By Type of Wind Equipment
       Wind-­‐Powered	
  Generating Sets
100%                                         Other                   Towers	
  -­‐ 2011
                                                                                           China
                      Asia                  Asia                              3%

80%                                                                                        Vietnam

                                                                         8%
                                                                                           Korea
                                                                 9%
60%                                                      1.5	
  pt
                                                           5%                              Other	
  
                                                                                     44%
                                            Europe                                         Asia
                                                               14%
40%                                                                                        Canada
                                                                           18%
                     Europe                                                                Mexico
20%
                                                                                           All	
  Europe

                                                     •  U.S. imports of wind-powered
 0%
       2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011               generating sets largely come from
                                                        Europe, whereas U.S. imports of
                                                        towers largely come from Asia                      21
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


A Growing % of Equipment Used in U.S.
Projects Has Been Sourced Domestically
                                                             Average Annual Turbine Equipment Cost
                  14                                         (Calendar Year)                            70%
                                                             Value of Selected Imports




                                                                                                              Imports as Fraction of Turbine Cost
                                                             (Customs value, 4 month lag, Sept - Aug)
                  12                                                                                    60%
                                                             Estimated Import Fraction
                       See full report for the
                  10   many assumptions                                                                 50%
Billion US$2011




                       used to generate the
                  8    data in this figure                                                              40%


                  6                                                                                     30%


                  4                                                                                     20%


                  2                                                                                     10%


                  0                                                                                     0%
                          2005-2006              2007-2008   2009-2010                   2011
•  Domestic content has increased from 35% in 2005-06 to 67% in 2011 22
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Average Turbine Size Increased in 2011
                            2.25
                                                                                                                             1.97 MW
                            2.00
Average Turbine Size (MW)




                                                                                                         1.74 MW   1.80 MW
                            1.75                                           1.60 MW   1.65 MW   1.67 MW
                                                                 1.46 MW
                            1.50
                                                       1.23 MW
                            1.25
                            1.00             0.89 MW
                                   0.72 MW
                            0.75
                            0.50
                            0.25
                            0.00
                              COD:1998-99    2000-01   2002-03   2004-05    2006      2007      2008      2009      2010      2011
                  Turbines: 1,431             1,974     1,687     1,900     1,530     3,190     5,014     5,736     2,902     3,464
                              MW: 1,029       1,751     2,080     2,769     2,453     5,249     8,360     9,997     5,210     6,816



•  42% of turbines installed in 2011 were > 2.0 MW, up from 28% in 2010, 24%
   in 2009, 20% in 2008, 16% in 2006 & 2007, and just 0.1% in previous years
                                                                                                                                      23
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Average Hub Heights and Rotor Diameters
Have Increased Over Time
                                             90
 Average Rotor Diameter and Hub Height (m)




                                             80

                                             70

                                             60

                                             50
                                                                                                        Rotor Diameter
                                             40
                                                                                                        Hub Height
                                             30

                                             20

                                             10

             0
          COD: 1998-99                            2000-01   2002-03   2004-05   2006    2007    2008     2009        2010    2011
       Turbines: 1,403                             1,974     1,683     1,918    1,477   3,190   5,004    5,733       2,901   3,464
           MW: 1,001                               1,751     2,074     2,734    2,402   5,249   8,349    9,993       5,208   6,816

•  On average, since 1998-99, hub heights are 25 meters (45%)
   higher and rotor diameters are 41 meters (86%) larger                                                                             24
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Project Finance Was a Mixed Bag in 2011
•  Weakened debt market
  –  Greek/European debt crisis drove retrenchment
  –  New banking regulations lead to shorter bank loan tenors, though
     institutional lenders continued to offer longer-term products
  –  4,000 MW of new wind raised $5.9 billion in debt, down 30% from 2010
  –  Bank loan pricing ratcheted up a bit, but interest rates starting below 6%
     still achievable
•  Tax equity market improved somewhat
  –  $3.5 billion in tax equity committed to wind in 2011, similar to 2010
  –  19 tax equity deals in 2011, with 22 active investors
  –  Pricing stable and new/returning investors entered the market
  –  Attrition of investors possible with loss of 1603 Treasury Grant program
                                                                                  25
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Utility Project Ownership Increased in 2011,
but IPP Ownership Remained Dominant
                                     100%                                                                  100%
                                                                                                                         2011 Capacity by
                                     90%                                                                   90%             Owner Type
% of Cumulative Installed Capacity




                                     80%                                                                   80%

                                     70%                                                                   70%
                                                                                                                           IPP: 4,965 MW
                                     60%                                                                   60%                  (73%)

                                     50%                                                                   50%

                                     40%                                                                   40%
                                                Other
                                     30%                                                                   30%                     IOU:
                                                Publicly Owned Utility (POU)
                                                                                                                                1,492 MW
                                     20%                                                                   20%
                                                Investor-Owned Utility (IOU)                                                      (22%)
                                     10%        Independent Power Producer (IPP)                           10%
                                                                                                                     POU:                     Other:
                                      0%                                                                    0%    204 MW (3%)              155 MW (2%)
                                        1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


Utility ownership jumped to 25% in 2011 (up from 15% in 2009 and 2010)
on the back of nearly 600 MW of new capacity built/owned by MidAmerican
                                                                                                                                                    26
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Electric Utilities Are Still the Dominant Off-
Takers of Wind Power
                                100%                                                                      100%        2011 Capacity by
                                                                                                                      Off-Take Category
                                     90%                                                                  90%
% of Cumulative Installed Capacity




                                     80%                                                                  80%

                                     70%                                                                  70%                IOU:
                                                                                                                          4,302 MW
                                     60%                                                                  60%               (63%)

                                     50%                                                                  50%

                                     40%       On-Site                                                    40%     Merchant:
                                               Merchant/Quasi-Merchant                                            1,434 MW
                                     30%                                                                  30%                    POU:
                                               Power Marketer                                                       (21%)
                                                                                                                                899 MW
                                     20%                                                                  20%
                                               POU                                                                               (13%)
                                     10%       IOU                                                        10%
                                                                                                                   On-Site:           Marketer:
                                     0%                                                                    0%
                                       1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011     35 MW (0.5%)        147 MW (2%)



•  Scarcity of power purchase agreements drove continued merchant
   development, though at somewhat lower levels than in recent years
                                                                                                                                                   27
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM




                      Cost Trends




                                    28
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Wind Turbine Prices Continued to Decline
in 2011, After Rising from 2002-2008
                                        2,200
 Turbine Transaction Price (2011$/kW)




                                                                           Orders <5 MW
                                        2,000
                                        1,800                              Orders from 5 - 100 MW
                                        1,600                              Orders >100 MW
                                        1,400
                                        1,200
                                        1,000
                                          800                                                                                                                                            Recent
                                          600                                                                     Figure depicts reported transaction                                   reported
                                                                                                                  prices from 96 U.S. wind turbine                                       turbine
                                          400
                                                                                                                                                                                          price
                                          200                                                                     orders totaling 26.6 GW
                                                                                                                                                                                         quotes
                                            0
                                                Jan-97

                                                         Jan-98

                                                                  Jan-99

                                                                           Jan-00

                                                                                    Jan-01

                                                                                             Jan-02

                                                                                                       Jan-03

                                                                                                                Jan-04

                                                                                                                         Jan-05

                                                                                                                                  Jan-06

                                                                                                                                           Jan-07

                                                                                                                                                    Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                             Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-11

                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-12
                                                                                                      Announcement Date
•  Recent turbine price quotes reportedly in the range of $900-1,270/kW,
   with more-favorable terms for buyers and improved technology        29
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Though Slow to Reflect Declining Wind
Turbine Prices, Reported Installed Project
Costs Finally Turned the Corner in 2011
                                     5,000   Individual Project Cost (584 projects totaling 42,614 MW)
Installed Project Cost (2011 $/kW)




                                     4,500   Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost
                                     4,000
                                     3,500
                                     3,000
                                     2,500
                                     2,000
                                     1,500
                                     1,000
                                      500
                                        0
                                             1982
                                             1983
                                             1984
                                             1985
                                             1986
                                             1987
                                             1988
                                             1989
                                             1990
                                             1991
                                             1992
                                             1993
                                             1994
                                             1995
                                             1996
                                             1997
                                             1998
                                             1999
                                             2000
                                             2001
                                             2002
                                             2003
                                             2004
                                             2005
                                             2006
                                             2007
                                             2008
                                             2009
                                             2010
                                             2011
                                             2012
               Note: 2012 sample of 20 projects totaling ~2.6 GW is preliminary, but
               suggests lower costs for 2012 projects                                                    30
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Economies of Scale Evident At Least At
Low End of Project Size Range
                                     5,000
                                     4,500                                                        Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost
Installed Project Cost (2011 $/kW)




                                     4,000                                                        Individual Project Cost
                                     3,500
                                     3,000
                                     2,500
                                     2,000
                                     1,500
                                     1,000
                                      500        Sample includes projects built from 2009-2011

                                        0
                                               ≤5 MW           5-20 MW           20-50 MW        50-100 MW        100-200 MW       >200 MW
                                              100 MW            430 MW           1,404 MW        4,372 MW          9,605 MW       5,284 MW
                                             52 projects      34 projects       39 projects      56 projects       72 projects    22 projects


                                                                                                                                                31
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Economies of Scale Also Evident (Though
Somewhat Less So) By Turbine Size
                                     5,000
                                                                                         Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost
                                     4,500
                                                                                         Individual Project Cost
Installed Project Cost (2011 $/kW)




                                     4,000
                                     3,500
                                     3,000
                                     2,500
                                     2,000
                                     1,500
                                     1,000
                                                            Sample includes projects built from 2009-2011
                                      500
                                        0
                                             >0.1 & <1 MW    ≥1 & <1.75 MW             ≥1.75 & <2.5 MW             ≥2.5 & <3.25 MW
                                                20 MW           9,448 MW                  9,637 MW                    2,090 MW
                                              15 projects     142 projects                92 projects                26 projects

         •  Theory: A project may be built less-expensively using fewer
            larger turbines instead of a larger number of smaller turbines                                                           32
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Some Regional Differences in Wind Power
Project Costs Are Apparent
                                     5,000
                                                       Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost
                                     4,500             Individual Project Cost
Installed Project Cost (2011 $/kW)




                                     4,000             Capacity-Weighted Average Cost, Total U.S.
                                     3,500
                                     3,000
                                     2,500
                                     2,000
                                     1,500
                                     1,000
                                      500                                                             Sample includes projects built from 2009-2011

                                        0
                                               Texas         Heartland    Great Lakes    Mountain     Northwest        East        California   New England
                                             30 projects    81 projects   34 projects   20 projects   48 projects   20 projects   19 projects   23 projects
                                             3,256 MW       5,902 MW      3,328 MW      2,091 MW      3,308 MW      1,383 MW      1,502 MW        423 MW


•  Different permitting/development costs may play a role at both ends of
   spectrum: it’s easier to build in TX and the Heartland and more difficult
   in New England and CA (see slide 42 for regional definitions)             33
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Newer Projects Appear to Show Improvements
in Operations and Maintenance Costs
                                    70
                                                                                                                                                                  Projects with no 2011 O&M data
Average Annual O&M Cost 2000-2011




                                    60
                                                                                                                                                                  Projects with 2011 O&M data
                                    50                                                                                                                            Polynomial Trend Line (all projects)
          (2011 $/MWh)




                                    40

                                    30

                                    20

                                    10

                                     0
                                                1983
                                                       1984


                                                                     1986


                                                                                   1988


                                                                                                 1990
                                                                                                        1991


                                                                                                                      1993


                                                                                                                                    1995


                                                                                                                                                  1997
                                                                                                                                                         1998


                                                                                                                                                                       2000


                                                                                                                                                                                     2002


                                                                                                                                                                                                   2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                          2005


                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2007


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2009
                                         1982



                                                              1985


                                                                            1987


                                                                                          1989



                                                                                                               1992


                                                                                                                             1994


                                                                                                                                           1996



                                                                                                                                                                1999


                                                                                                                                                                              2001


                                                                                                                                                                                            2003



                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2006


                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2008


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010
                                                                                                                Commercial Operation Date
 Capacity-weighted average 2000-11 O&M costs for projects built in the 1980s equal $33/MWh,
 dropping to $23/MWh for projects built in 1990s, and to $10/MWh for projects built since 2000
 Note: Sample is limited, and consists of 133 wind power projects totaling 7,965 MW; few
 projects in sample have complete records of O&M costs from 2000-11; O&M costs reported
 here DO NOT include all operating costs                                                       34
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


O&M Costs Appear to Increase with
Project Age, and Decrease for More
Recently Installed Projects
                         30
                                                                                                                                                                           O&M reported in
                              Commercial Operation Date:                                                                                                                   figure does not
                                 1998-2004
                         25
                                 2005-2010                                                                                                                                 include all
Median Annual O&M Cost




                         20                                                                                                                                                operating costs:
     (2011 $/MWh)




                                                                                                                                                                           Statements from
                         15
                                                                                                                                                                           public companies
                         10                                                                                                                                                with large U.S.
                         5                                                                                                                                                 wind asset bases
                                                                                                                                                                           report total
                                         n=36




                                                                             n=25
                                                                  n=23
                              n=18



                                                n=31




                                                                                               n=11
                                                           n=34




                                                                                    n=20




                                                                                                                      n=5
                                                                                                      n=8

                                                                                                                n=6




                                                                                                                                      n=3
                                                                                                                                n=2




                                                                                                                                                n=3



                                                                                                                                                          n=3



                                                                                                                                                                    n=3
                         0
                                     1                 2                 3                 4                5               6               7         8         9     10   operating costs in
                                                                  Project Age (Number of Years Since Commercial Operation Date)                                            2011 for projects
    Note: Sample size is extremely limited                                                                                                                                 built in the 2000s
                                                                                                                                                                           of ~$22/MWh
                                                                                                                                                                                            35
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM




             Performance Trends




                                  36
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Average Capacity Factors Have Improved
Over Time, But Leveled Off in Recent Years
                   35%

                   30%

                   25%
Capacity Factor




                   20%

                   15%                                            Based on Estimated Generation (if no curtailment in subset of regions)
                                                                  Based on Actual Generation (with curtailment)
                   10%                                            4-Year Moving Average (based on estimated generation)

                    5%

                    0%
                     Year: 1999   2000    2001    2002    2003     2004      2005     2006      2007      2008      2009     2010      2011
                  Projects:   5    12      41      84      97      119       143       168       210      254       354       466          397
                      MW: 544     1,000   1,531   3,271   3,811   5,211     5,880     8,712    10,695    15,670    24,368   34,213    37,606


•  General improvement reflects increase in hub height and rotor diameter
•  Drop in 2009 and 2010, and rebound in 2011, driven in part by: (1) inter-
   annual wind resource variation, and (2) wind power curtailment                                                                                37
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Curtailment a Growing Issue in Some Areas
Estimated Wind Curtailment (GWh and % of potential wind generation)
                                                       2007         2008          2009          2010         2011
 Electric Reliability Council of Texas                  109         1,417         3,872         2,067        2,622
 (ERCOT)                                              (1.2%)       (8.4%)       (17.1%)        (7.7%)       (8.5%)
 Southwestern Public Service Company                                  0             0            0.9          0.5
                                                       N/A
 (SPS)                                                             (0.0%)        (0.0%)        (0.0%)       (0.0%)
 Public Service Company of Colorado                                  2.5           19.0          81.5         63.9
                                                       N/A
 (PSCo)                                                            (0.1%)        (0.6%)        (2.2%)       (1.4%)
 Northern States Power Company                                       25.4          42.4          42.6         54.4
                                                       N/A
 (NSP)                                                             (0.8%)        (1.2%)        (1.2%)       (1.2%)
 Midwest Independent System Operator                                               250           781          657
                                                       N/A           N/A
 (MISO), less NSP                                                                (2.2%)        (4.4%)       (3.0%)
 Bonneville Power Administration                                                                 4.6*       128.7*
                                                       N/A           N/A           N/A
 (BPA)                                                                                         (0.1%)       (1.4%)
                                                        109         1,445         4,183         2,978        3,526
           Total Across These Six Areas:
                                                      (1.2%)       (5.6%)        (9.6%)        (4.8%)       (4.8%)
*A portion of BPA’s curtailment is estimated assuming that each curtailment event lasts for half of the maximum possible hour
for each event.
Source: ERCOT, Xcel Energy, MISO, BPA

Assuming a 33% capacity factor, the total amount of wind generation
curtailed in 2011 within just the six territories shown above equates to
the annual output of roughly 1,220 MW of wind power capacity                                                                    38
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Binning by Project Vintage and Focusing
on 2011 Performance Tells A Similar Story
                                            60%
2011 Capacity Factor (by project vintage)




                                                    Sample includes 397 projects totaling 37.6 GW
                                            50%


                                            40%


                                            30%


                                            20%


                                            10%                                                                   Capacity-Weighted Average (by project vintage)
                                                                                                                  Individual Project (by project vintage)
                                            0%
                                                  Pre-1998    1998-99     2000-01     2002-03       2004-05     2006        2007        2008        2009        2010
                                                  5 projects 24 projects 25 projects 38 projects 29 projects 22 projects 36 projects 72 projects 96 projects 50 projects
                                                  475 MW      777 MW     1,617 MW 2,061 MW 3,578 MW 1,755 MW 5,071 MW 8,008 MW 9,276 MW 4,989 MW


  •  Projects installed since 2005 have bucked the trend of generally
     increasing capacity factors among more-recently built projects
                                                                                                                                                                           39
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Turbine Scaling Should Boost Performance,
but Is Offset By Declining Resource Quality
                                                                                                                                                                                •  Both hub height and
Index of Wind Resource Quality at 80m (1998-99=100)




                                                      100                                                                                              3.2

                                                                                                                                                       3.1                         swept rotor area




                                                                                                                                                             Inverse of Specific Power (m^2 / kW)
                                                      95                                                                                               3.0                         relative to turbine
                                                                                                                                                       2.9                         capacity were
                                                      90                                                                                               2.8                         relatively stable
                                                                                                                                                       2.7                         from 2006-2009
                                                      85                                                                                               2.6

                                                                                                                                                       2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                •  Rotor scaling since
                                                      80                                                                                               2.4
                                                                                                                                                                                   2009 is expected to
                                                                                Average 80m Wind Resource Quality Among Built Projects (left scale)
                                                                                                                                                       2.3
                                                                                                                                                                                   boost performance
                                                                                Swept Area divided by Nameplate Capacity (right scale)
                                                      75                                                                                               2.2
                                                                                                                                                                                   in future years
                                                            1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05     2006      2007      2008      2009       2010   2011                            	



     •  Projects increasingly sited in lower wind speed areas, particularly since 2008: 2011
        projects were (on avg.) located in estimated 80-meter resource conditions that are
        16.1% worse than projects built in 1998-99 à likely a result of improvements in low
        wind speed technology, transmission/siting limitations, and policy influences	

     40
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Regional Performance Differences Are
Apparent
                       60%             Capacity-Weighted Average (by region)
                                       Individual Project (by region)
                       50%             Capacity-Weighted Average (total U.S.)
2011 Capacity Factor




                       40%

                       30%

                       20%

                       10%                                 Sample includes 305 projects built from 2004-2010 and totaling 32.8 GW

                       0%
                                East        New England     California   Great Lakes   Northwest       Texas        Mountain     Heartland
                             26 projects     10 projects   14 projects   29 projects   51 projects   48 projects   29 projects   98 projects
                             2,282 MW         291 MW       1,127 MW      3,898 MW      4,445 MW      8,256 MW      3,026 MW      9,468 MW



           Average capacity factors highest in the Heartland and Mountain
           regions, lowest in the East and New England                                                                                         41
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Performance Differences Are Roughly
Consistent with the Relative Quality of the
Wind Resource in Each Region
                        Average wind speed at 80 meters

                                                                   New
        Northwest
                                                                  England

                                              Great
                                              Lakes        East

     California                 Heartland
                  Mountain


                                               Southeast
                               Texas




                                                                            42
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM




        Wind Power Price Trends




                                  43
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Sample of Wind Power Prices
•  Berkeley Lab collects data on historical wind power sales
   prices
•  Sample includes 271 projects built from 1998-2011, totaling
   20,189 MW (44% of all wind capacity added in that period)
•  Prices reflect the historical bundled price of electricity and
   RECs as sold by the project owner under a power purchase
   agreement
   –  Dataset excludes merchant plants and projects that sell renewable
      energy certificates (RECs) separately
   –  Prices reflect receipt of state and federal incentives (e.g., the PTC or
      Treasury grant), as well as various local policy and market influences;
      as a result, prices do not reflect wind energy generation costs

                                                                                 44
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Cumulative, Sample-Wide Wind Power
Prices Continued to Move Higher in 2011
                                70
                                                                                 Sample includes projects built from 1998-2011
                                60
Wind Power Price (2011 $/MWh)




                                50


                                40

                                30

                                20


                                10
                                             Cumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (with 25% and 75% quartiles)

                                0
                                Year: 1999    2000     2001     2002     2003     2004     2005     2006      2007     2008       2009     2010     2011
               Projects: 11                    12       22       33       47       64       80        97       120      150        184      233      271
                                 MW: 588      600      741      1,444    2,294    3,103    4,056    4,987     7,980    10,535     13,701   17,190   20,189


General trend of falling and then rising prices consistent with the project cost
trends shown earlier, but cumulative nature of figure results in a smoother,
less-responsive curve that lags the directional changes in cost trends                                                                                       45
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Binning Wind Power Sales Prices by Project
Vintage Also Fails to Show a Price Reversal
                                     120
                                                 Capacity-Weighted Average (by project vintage)
2011 Wind Power Price (2011 $/MWh)




                                                 Individual Project (by project vintage)
                                     100


                                     80


                                     60


                                     40


                                     20


                                      0
                                            1998-99     2000-01     2002-03     2004-05       2006        2007        2008        2009        2010        2011
                                           14 projects 21 projects 33 projects 21 projects 14 projects 24 projects 31 projects 53 projects 27 projects 33 projects
                                            650 MW      854 MW     1,648 MW 1,269 MW        742 MW     3,190 MW 2,669 MW 3,987 MW 2,386 MW 2,793 MW



         Graphic shows prices in 2011 from projects built from 1998-2011
                                                                                                                                                                     46
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Binning Wind Power Sales Prices by PPA
Execution Date Shows Steeply Falling Prices
                                     120         Capacity-Weighted Average (by PPA vintage)
                                                 Individual Projects (by PPA vintage)
2011 Wind Power Price (2011 $/MWh)




                                     100         Individual Projects Built in 2011 (by PPA vintage)


                                     80


                                     60


                                     40


                                     20


                                      0
                                            1998-99     2000-01     2002-03     2004-05      2006        2007        2008        2009        2010        2011
                                           10 projects 13 projects 21 projects 24 projects 25 projects 12 projects 33 projects 41 projects 23 projects 2 projects
                                            577 MW      939 MW     1,583 MW    2,402 MW    2,451 MW    1,638 MW    3,483 MW    4,320 MW    2,184 MW     150 MW


             •  In previous slide, substantial lag between PPA execution and project
                completion masked the recent reduction in prices that becomes
                apparent when projects are binned by PPA execution date                                                                                             47
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Focusing on a Smaller Sample of Full-Term
PPAs Demonstrates that Levelized Wind
Prices Declined in 2011 and Vary by Region
                                   $120
                                                        California (2,127 MW, 19 contracts)
Levelized PPA Price (2011 $/MWh)




                                   $100                 Rest of US (4,033 MW, 66 contracts)
                                                        Wind Belt (10,882 MW, 131 contracts)
                                   $80                                                                                                                                                             Full-term (rather
                                                                                                                                                                                                   than historical)
                                   $60                                                                                                                                                             data allow for a
                                   $40
                                                                                                                                                                                                   calculation of
                                                                                                                                                                                                   levelized prices
                                   $20                                                                                                                                                             over the entire
                                                                                                                                                                                                   PPA duration
                                     $0
                                          Jan-96

                                                   Jan-97

                                                            Jan-98

                                                                     Jan-99

                                                                              Jan-00

                                                                                       Jan-01

                                                                                                Jan-02

                                                                                                         Jan-03

                                                                                                                  Jan-04

                                                                                                                           Jan-05

                                                                                                                                    Jan-06

                                                                                                                                             Jan-07

                                                                                                                                                      Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                               Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-11

                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-12
                                                                                                 PPA Execution Date

                 Among the sample of PPAs signed in 2011, the capacity-weighted
                 average levelized price is $35/MWh, down from $59/MWh for PPAs
                 signed in 2010 and $72/MWh for PPAs signed in 2009                                                                                                                                                    48
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Wind Pricing Varies Widely By Region
                                     120
                                           Sample includes projects built in 2010 and 2011
2011 Wind Power Price (2011 $/MWh)




                                     100


                                     80


                                     60


                                     40

                                                                                                                   Capacity-Weighted Average (by region)
                                     20                                                                            Individual Project (by region)
                                                                                                                   Capacity-Weighted Average (total U.S.)
                                      0
                                            Texas        Heartland      Mountain     New England    Great Lakes     East          Northwest          California
                                           1 project    23 projects     6 projects     3 projects    5 projects   5 projects      7 projects        10 projects
                                           78 MW        1,395 MW        868 MW          113 MW       600 MW       314 MW           724 MW           1,088 MW



              Though sample size is problematic in several regions, Texas, the Heartland
              and the Mountain regions appear to be among the lowest price areas, on
              average, while California is by far the highest price region                                                                                        49
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Low Wholesale Electricity Prices Continued
to Challenge the Relative Economics of
Wind Power
             90
                                                                                                         Wind project sample includes
             80
                                                                                                         projects built from 1998-2011
             70

             60
2011 $/MWh




             50

             40

             30

             20          Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (for a flat block of power)
             10          Cumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (with 25% and 75% quartiles)

             0
                     2003          2004          2005          2006          2007         2008         2009          2010         2011
                  47 projects   64 projects   80 projects   97 projects   120 projects 150 projects 184 projects 233 projects 271 projects
                  2,294 MW      3,103 MW      4,056 MW      4,987 MW      7,980 MW     10,535 MW    13,701 MW    17,190 MW     20,189 MW

 •  Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes across the U.S.
 •  Recent wholesale prices reflect low natural gas prices, driven by weak economy and shale gas
 •  Price comparison shown here is far from perfect – see full report for caveats                50
WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM


Gap Between Wholesale Prices and Wind
Power Prices Crossed All Regions in 2011
But… many PPAs signed in 2011 (shown earlier, many at
$30-40/MWh) are competitive at 2011 wholesale prices
             120      Average 2011 Wholesale Power Price Range
                      2011 Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price
             100      Individual Project 2011 Wind Power Price
2011 $/MWh




             80


             60


             40


             20
                                                      Wind project sample includes projects built in 2010 and 2011
              0
                    Texas      Heartland     Mountain     New England Great Lakes      East       Northwest     California    Total US
                   1 project   23 projects   6 projects    3 projects   5 projects   5 projects   7 projects   10 projects   60 projects
                   78 MW       1,395 MW      868 MW         113 MW      600 MW       314 MW       724 MW       1,088 MW      5,180 MW

  Notes: Within a region there are a range of wholesale prices because multiple price hubs exist in
  each area; price comparison shown here is far from perfect – see full report for caveats         51
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report

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2011 Wind Technologies Market Report

  • 1. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM 2011 Wind Technologies Market Report Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger Report Summary Lawrence Berkeley August 2012 National Laboratory 1 Program Name or Ancillary Text Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 1 eere.energy.gov
  • 2. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Presentation Overview •  Introduction to current edition of U.S. wind energy market report •  Wind Energy Market Trends –  Installation trends –  Industry trends –  Cost trends –  Performance trends –  Wind power price trends –  Policy and market drivers –  Future outlook 2
  • 3. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM 2011 Wind Technologies Market Report Purpose, Scope, and Data: •  With a focus on 2011, summarize trends in the U.S. wind power market, including information on wind installations, industry developments, project costs, O&M costs, performance, power sales prices, policy/market trends •  Scope primarily includes wind turbines over 100 kW in size •  Data sources include AWEA, EIA, FERC, SEC, etc. (see full report) Report Authors: •  Primary authors: Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, Berkeley Lab •  Contributions from others at Berkeley Lab, Exeter Assoc., NREL Available at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/ 3
  • 4. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM New to the Current Edition of the Report •  Summary of trends in the wind resource conditions in which wind power projects have been sited •  Expanded discussion of how the reporting of power sales prices impacts the apparent pricing of wind, including new data on full-term power purchase agreement pricing •  Shortened discussion of offshore wind energy à companion report funded by the U.S. Department of Energy focused exclusively on offshore wind will be published later this year 4
  • 5. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Key Findings •  Wind is a credible source of new generation in the U.S. •  Despite the lack of policy clarity, turbine manufacturers and their suppliers continued to localize production in 2011 •  Turbine scaling has boosted wind project capacity factors •  Falling wind turbine prices have begun to push installed project costs lower •  Lower wind turbine prices and installed project costs, along with improved capacity factors, are enabling aggressive wind power pricing •  Looking ahead, projections are for continued strong growth in 2012, followed by a dramatically lower but uncertain 2013 5
  • 6. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Installation Trends 6
  • 7. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Wind Power Additions Increased in 2011, but Remained Below 2008 and 2009 Levels 10 50 9 Annual US Capacity (left scale) 45 8 Cumulative US Capacity (right scale) 40 Cumulative Capacity (GW) Annual Capacity (GW) 7 35 6 30 5 25 4 20 3 15 2 10 1 5 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 •  6.8 GW of wind power added in 2011 in U.S., 31% higher than in 2010 •  $14 billion invested in wind power project additions •  Cumulative wind power capacity up by 16%, bringing total to 47 GW 7
  • 8. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Wind Power Comprised 32% of Electric Generating Capacity Additions in 2011 100 50% Total Annual Capacity Additions (GW) (%  of  Total   Annual  Capacity  Additions) 80 40% Wind  Capacity  Additions 60 30% 40 20% 20 10% 0 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wind Gas Coal Other Renewable Other Non-Renewable Wind (% of Total) •  Wind power in 2011 was again the 2nd-largest resource added (after gas, and for the 6th time in the past seven years) 8
  • 9. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM China Was 1st and the U.S. Was 2nd in Both New and Cumulative Wind Power Capacity Annual Capacity Cumulative Capacity (2011, MW) (end of 2011, MW) China 17,631 China 62,412 U.S. 6,816 U.S. 46,916 India 3,300 Germany 29,248 Germany 2,007 Spain 21,350 U.K. 1,293 India 16,266 Canada 1,267 U.K. 7,155 Spain 1,050 France 6,836 Italy 950 Italy 6,733 France 875 Canada 5,278 Sweden 763 Portugal 4,214 Rest of World 5,766 Rest of World 34,453 TOTAL 41,718 TOTAL 240,861 Source: BTM Consult; AWEA project database for U.S. capacity •  Global wind power capacity additions in 2011 up 6% from 2010 level •  U.S. additions = 16% of global additions in 2011, up from 13% in 2010 but down from 26-30% from 2007 through 2009 9
  • 10. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM U.S. Lagging Other Countries in Wind As a Percentage of Electricity Consumption 30% 28% Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2011 26% Proportion of Electricity Consumption Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2010 Estimated Wind Generation as a 24% 22% Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2009 20% Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2008 18% Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2007 16% Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2006 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% TOTAL Italy Turkey India Ireland Brazil U.S. China Spain Greece France Poland Canada Japan Australia UK Portugal Germany Netherlands Sweden Denmark Note: Figure only includes the 20 countries with the most installed wind power capacity at the end of 2011 10
  • 11. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Geographic Spread of Wind Power Projects in the United States Is Reasonably Broad Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in parentheses, annual additions in 2011. 11
  • 12. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM California Added the Most Wind Capacity in 2011; Six States Exceed 10% Wind Energy Capacity (MW) Percentage of In-State Generation Annual (2011) Cumulative (end of 2011) Actual (2011)* Estimated (end of 2011)** At end of 2011: California 921 Texas 10,394 South Dakota 22.3% South Dakota 22.1% Illinois Iowa 692 647 Iowa California 4,322 3,917 Iowa North Dakota 18.8% 14.7% Iowa Minnesota 20.0% 14.9% •  Texas continued to Minnesota 542 Illinois 2,742 Minnesota 12.7% North Dakota 14.1% lead in cumulative Oklahoma 525 Minnesota 2,718 Wyoming 10.1% Colorado 10.7% Colorado 506 Washington 2,573 Colorado 9.2% Oregon 10.5% capacity, by a large Oregon 409 Oregon 2,513 Kansas 8.2% Idaho 9.7% Washington 367 Oklahoma 2,007 Idaho 8.2% Kansas 9.2% margin Texas 297 Colorado 1,805 Oregon 8.2% Oklahoma 9.1% Idaho 265 North Dakota 1,445 Oklahoma 7.1% Wyoming 8.8% •  20 states had >500 Michigan 213 Wyoming 1,412 Texas 6.9% Texas 7.3% Kansas 200 New York 1,403 New Mexico 5.4% Maine 6.5% MW of capacity (8 Wisconsin 162 Indiana 1,340 Washington 5.3% New Mexico 5.8% West Virginia 134 Kansas 1,274 Maine 4.5% Washington 5.5% had >2000 MW) Maine 131 Pennsylvania 789 Montana 4.2% California 4.7% New York 129 South Dakota 784 California 4.0% Montana 3.8% •  2 states had the Nebraska Utah 125 102 New Mexico Wisconsin 750 631 Illinois Hawaii 3.1% 3.1% Illinois Hawaii 3.7% 3.7% ability to provide Ohio 102 Idaho 618 Nebraska 2.9% Indiana 3.0% >20% of total in-state South Dakota Rest of U.S. 75 274 West Virginia Rest of U.S. 564 2,915 Indiana Rest of U.S. 2.7% 0.4% Nebraska Rest of U.S. 2.9% 0.5% generation from wind TOTAL 6,816 TOTAL 46,916 TOTAL 2.9% TOTAL 3.2% (6 states >10%, 14 * Based on 2011 wind and total generation by state from EIA’s Electric Power Monthly. ** Based on a projection of wind electricity generation from end-of-2011 wind power capacity, divided by total in-state electricity states >5%) generation in 2011. Source: AWEA project database, EIA, Berkeley Lab estimates 12
  • 13. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM No Offshore Turbines Commissioned in the U.S., But 10 Projects Totaling 3.8 GW Are Somewhat More Advanced in Development •  Two projects have power purchase agreements (PPAs): •  Cape Wind (MA) •  Deepwater (RI) •  Nation’s first offshore wind power PPA cancelled in 2011: NRG Bluewater (DE) 13
  • 14. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Roughly 220 GW of Wind Power Capacity in Transmission Interconnection Queues 250 Entered queue in 2011 Total in queue at end of 2011 200 Nameplate Capacity (GW) 1.5 times as much wind power as next-largest resource (natural gas) in sampled 41 queues 150 But… absolute amount of wind (and coal) in sampled queues has declined in recent years 100 whereas natural gas and solar capacity has increased 50 0 Wind Natural Gas Solar Nuclear Coal Other Not all of this capacity will be built…. 14
  • 15. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM 96% Planned for Midwest, PJM, Texas, Mountain, Northwest, Southwest Power Pool, and California 50 Nameplate Wind Power Capacity (GW) 45 Entered queue in 2011 Total in queue at end of 2011 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 MISO / PJM ERCOT Mountain Northwest SPP California New York ISO-New Southeast Midwest ISO ISO England Not all of this capacity will be built…. 15
  • 16. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Industry Trends 16
  • 17. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Despite Ongoing Proliferation of New Entrants, “Big 3” Turbine Suppliers Gained Market Share 100% Other Turbine Manufacturer U.S. Market Share 90% Acciona 80% Gamesa 70% REpower 60% Clipper 50% Nordex 40% Mitsubishi 30% Suzlon Siemens 20% Vestas 10% GE Wind 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 •  Increase in number of turbine vendors serving market since 2005, but top three (in aggregate) have gained market share since 2008-09 •  2011 installations by Chinese and South Korean manufacturers included: Sany Electric, Samsung, Goldwind, Hyundai, Sinovel, and Unison 17
  • 18. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM U.S. Wind Manufacturing Has Increased, but Supply Chain Is Under Severe Pressure •  Larger number of new manufacturing facilities opened in 2011 than in 2010 •  8 of 10 turbine OEMs with largest share of U.S. market in 2011 had one or more manufacturing facilities in the U.S. in 2011; only one major OEM had U.S. manufacturing in 2004 Note: map is not intended to be exhaustive 18
  • 19. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Substantial Over-Capacity of U.S. Nacelle Assembly Capability in 2011, with Even Greater Over-Capacity Possible After 2012 •  Substantial growth in wind 14 capacity additions in 2012, but Wind Turbine Nacelle Assembly Capacity in the weakened prospects after 2012 U.S. (and Wind Turbine Installations) (GW) 12 Other 10 Nordex •  75,000 full time workers 8 Gamesa employed directly or indirectly in Siemens wind industry…but layoffs have 6 begun, and more are likely Vestas 4 •  Downward pressure on turbine GE 2 and component pricing à lower 0 U.S. Turbine Installations profit margins & weakened 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e financial results Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 19
  • 20. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Estimated U.S. Imports of Wind-Related Equipment Increased Somewhat in 2011 Relative to 2010; Exports Held Steady 7 Estimated US Imports: Exports of Wind-Powered Other Wind Turbine Components Generating Sets 6 Towers Wind-Powered Generating Sets 5 Billion US $2011 4 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2375 MW 2454 MW 5249 MW 8361 MW 10000 MW 5214 MW 6816 MW 20
  • 21. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Source Markets for Imports Have Varied Over Time, and By Type of Wind Equipment Wind-­‐Powered  Generating Sets 100% Other Towers  -­‐ 2011 China Asia Asia 3% 80% Vietnam 8% Korea 9% 60% 1.5  pt 5% Other   44% Europe Asia 14% 40% Canada 18% Europe Mexico 20% All  Europe •  U.S. imports of wind-powered 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 generating sets largely come from Europe, whereas U.S. imports of towers largely come from Asia 21
  • 22. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM A Growing % of Equipment Used in U.S. Projects Has Been Sourced Domestically Average Annual Turbine Equipment Cost 14 (Calendar Year) 70% Value of Selected Imports Imports as Fraction of Turbine Cost (Customs value, 4 month lag, Sept - Aug) 12 60% Estimated Import Fraction See full report for the 10 many assumptions 50% Billion US$2011 used to generate the 8 data in this figure 40% 6 30% 4 20% 2 10% 0 0% 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2011 •  Domestic content has increased from 35% in 2005-06 to 67% in 2011 22
  • 23. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Average Turbine Size Increased in 2011 2.25 1.97 MW 2.00 Average Turbine Size (MW) 1.74 MW 1.80 MW 1.75 1.60 MW 1.65 MW 1.67 MW 1.46 MW 1.50 1.23 MW 1.25 1.00 0.89 MW 0.72 MW 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 COD:1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Turbines: 1,431 1,974 1,687 1,900 1,530 3,190 5,014 5,736 2,902 3,464 MW: 1,029 1,751 2,080 2,769 2,453 5,249 8,360 9,997 5,210 6,816 •  42% of turbines installed in 2011 were > 2.0 MW, up from 28% in 2010, 24% in 2009, 20% in 2008, 16% in 2006 & 2007, and just 0.1% in previous years 23
  • 24. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Average Hub Heights and Rotor Diameters Have Increased Over Time 90 Average Rotor Diameter and Hub Height (m) 80 70 60 50 Rotor Diameter 40 Hub Height 30 20 10 0 COD: 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Turbines: 1,403 1,974 1,683 1,918 1,477 3,190 5,004 5,733 2,901 3,464 MW: 1,001 1,751 2,074 2,734 2,402 5,249 8,349 9,993 5,208 6,816 •  On average, since 1998-99, hub heights are 25 meters (45%) higher and rotor diameters are 41 meters (86%) larger 24
  • 25. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Project Finance Was a Mixed Bag in 2011 •  Weakened debt market –  Greek/European debt crisis drove retrenchment –  New banking regulations lead to shorter bank loan tenors, though institutional lenders continued to offer longer-term products –  4,000 MW of new wind raised $5.9 billion in debt, down 30% from 2010 –  Bank loan pricing ratcheted up a bit, but interest rates starting below 6% still achievable •  Tax equity market improved somewhat –  $3.5 billion in tax equity committed to wind in 2011, similar to 2010 –  19 tax equity deals in 2011, with 22 active investors –  Pricing stable and new/returning investors entered the market –  Attrition of investors possible with loss of 1603 Treasury Grant program 25
  • 26. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Utility Project Ownership Increased in 2011, but IPP Ownership Remained Dominant 100% 100% 2011 Capacity by 90% 90% Owner Type % of Cumulative Installed Capacity 80% 80% 70% 70% IPP: 4,965 MW 60% 60% (73%) 50% 50% 40% 40% Other 30% 30% IOU: Publicly Owned Utility (POU) 1,492 MW 20% 20% Investor-Owned Utility (IOU) (22%) 10% Independent Power Producer (IPP) 10% POU: Other: 0% 0% 204 MW (3%) 155 MW (2%) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Utility ownership jumped to 25% in 2011 (up from 15% in 2009 and 2010) on the back of nearly 600 MW of new capacity built/owned by MidAmerican 26
  • 27. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Electric Utilities Are Still the Dominant Off- Takers of Wind Power 100% 100% 2011 Capacity by Off-Take Category 90% 90% % of Cumulative Installed Capacity 80% 80% 70% 70% IOU: 4,302 MW 60% 60% (63%) 50% 50% 40% On-Site 40% Merchant: Merchant/Quasi-Merchant 1,434 MW 30% 30% POU: Power Marketer (21%) 899 MW 20% 20% POU (13%) 10% IOU 10% On-Site: Marketer: 0% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 35 MW (0.5%) 147 MW (2%) •  Scarcity of power purchase agreements drove continued merchant development, though at somewhat lower levels than in recent years 27
  • 28. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Cost Trends 28
  • 29. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Wind Turbine Prices Continued to Decline in 2011, After Rising from 2002-2008 2,200 Turbine Transaction Price (2011$/kW) Orders <5 MW 2,000 1,800 Orders from 5 - 100 MW 1,600 Orders >100 MW 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 Recent 600 Figure depicts reported transaction reported prices from 96 U.S. wind turbine turbine 400 price 200 orders totaling 26.6 GW quotes 0 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Announcement Date •  Recent turbine price quotes reportedly in the range of $900-1,270/kW, with more-favorable terms for buyers and improved technology 29
  • 30. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Though Slow to Reflect Declining Wind Turbine Prices, Reported Installed Project Costs Finally Turned the Corner in 2011 5,000 Individual Project Cost (584 projects totaling 42,614 MW) Installed Project Cost (2011 $/kW) 4,500 Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: 2012 sample of 20 projects totaling ~2.6 GW is preliminary, but suggests lower costs for 2012 projects 30
  • 31. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Economies of Scale Evident At Least At Low End of Project Size Range 5,000 4,500 Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost Installed Project Cost (2011 $/kW) 4,000 Individual Project Cost 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Sample includes projects built from 2009-2011 0 ≤5 MW 5-20 MW 20-50 MW 50-100 MW 100-200 MW >200 MW 100 MW 430 MW 1,404 MW 4,372 MW 9,605 MW 5,284 MW 52 projects 34 projects 39 projects 56 projects 72 projects 22 projects 31
  • 32. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Economies of Scale Also Evident (Though Somewhat Less So) By Turbine Size 5,000 Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost 4,500 Individual Project Cost Installed Project Cost (2011 $/kW) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Sample includes projects built from 2009-2011 500 0 >0.1 & <1 MW ≥1 & <1.75 MW ≥1.75 & <2.5 MW ≥2.5 & <3.25 MW 20 MW 9,448 MW 9,637 MW 2,090 MW 15 projects 142 projects 92 projects 26 projects •  Theory: A project may be built less-expensively using fewer larger turbines instead of a larger number of smaller turbines 32
  • 33. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Some Regional Differences in Wind Power Project Costs Are Apparent 5,000 Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost 4,500 Individual Project Cost Installed Project Cost (2011 $/kW) 4,000 Capacity-Weighted Average Cost, Total U.S. 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Sample includes projects built from 2009-2011 0 Texas Heartland Great Lakes Mountain Northwest East California New England 30 projects 81 projects 34 projects 20 projects 48 projects 20 projects 19 projects 23 projects 3,256 MW 5,902 MW 3,328 MW 2,091 MW 3,308 MW 1,383 MW 1,502 MW 423 MW •  Different permitting/development costs may play a role at both ends of spectrum: it’s easier to build in TX and the Heartland and more difficult in New England and CA (see slide 42 for regional definitions) 33
  • 34. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Newer Projects Appear to Show Improvements in Operations and Maintenance Costs 70 Projects with no 2011 O&M data Average Annual O&M Cost 2000-2011 60 Projects with 2011 O&M data 50 Polynomial Trend Line (all projects) (2011 $/MWh) 40 30 20 10 0 1983 1984 1986 1988 1990 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2007 2009 1982 1985 1987 1989 1992 1994 1996 1999 2001 2003 2006 2008 2010 Commercial Operation Date Capacity-weighted average 2000-11 O&M costs for projects built in the 1980s equal $33/MWh, dropping to $23/MWh for projects built in 1990s, and to $10/MWh for projects built since 2000 Note: Sample is limited, and consists of 133 wind power projects totaling 7,965 MW; few projects in sample have complete records of O&M costs from 2000-11; O&M costs reported here DO NOT include all operating costs 34
  • 35. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM O&M Costs Appear to Increase with Project Age, and Decrease for More Recently Installed Projects 30 O&M reported in Commercial Operation Date: figure does not 1998-2004 25 2005-2010 include all Median Annual O&M Cost 20 operating costs: (2011 $/MWh) Statements from 15 public companies 10 with large U.S. 5 wind asset bases report total n=36 n=25 n=23 n=18 n=31 n=11 n=34 n=20 n=5 n=8 n=6 n=3 n=2 n=3 n=3 n=3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 operating costs in Project Age (Number of Years Since Commercial Operation Date) 2011 for projects Note: Sample size is extremely limited built in the 2000s of ~$22/MWh 35
  • 36. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Performance Trends 36
  • 37. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Average Capacity Factors Have Improved Over Time, But Leveled Off in Recent Years 35% 30% 25% Capacity Factor 20% 15% Based on Estimated Generation (if no curtailment in subset of regions) Based on Actual Generation (with curtailment) 10% 4-Year Moving Average (based on estimated generation) 5% 0% Year: 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Projects: 5 12 41 84 97 119 143 168 210 254 354 466 397 MW: 544 1,000 1,531 3,271 3,811 5,211 5,880 8,712 10,695 15,670 24,368 34,213 37,606 •  General improvement reflects increase in hub height and rotor diameter •  Drop in 2009 and 2010, and rebound in 2011, driven in part by: (1) inter- annual wind resource variation, and (2) wind power curtailment 37
  • 38. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Curtailment a Growing Issue in Some Areas Estimated Wind Curtailment (GWh and % of potential wind generation) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Electric Reliability Council of Texas 109 1,417 3,872 2,067 2,622 (ERCOT) (1.2%) (8.4%) (17.1%) (7.7%) (8.5%) Southwestern Public Service Company 0 0 0.9 0.5 N/A (SPS) (0.0%) (0.0%) (0.0%) (0.0%) Public Service Company of Colorado 2.5 19.0 81.5 63.9 N/A (PSCo) (0.1%) (0.6%) (2.2%) (1.4%) Northern States Power Company 25.4 42.4 42.6 54.4 N/A (NSP) (0.8%) (1.2%) (1.2%) (1.2%) Midwest Independent System Operator 250 781 657 N/A N/A (MISO), less NSP (2.2%) (4.4%) (3.0%) Bonneville Power Administration 4.6* 128.7* N/A N/A N/A (BPA) (0.1%) (1.4%) 109 1,445 4,183 2,978 3,526 Total Across These Six Areas: (1.2%) (5.6%) (9.6%) (4.8%) (4.8%) *A portion of BPA’s curtailment is estimated assuming that each curtailment event lasts for half of the maximum possible hour for each event. Source: ERCOT, Xcel Energy, MISO, BPA Assuming a 33% capacity factor, the total amount of wind generation curtailed in 2011 within just the six territories shown above equates to the annual output of roughly 1,220 MW of wind power capacity 38
  • 39. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Binning by Project Vintage and Focusing on 2011 Performance Tells A Similar Story 60% 2011 Capacity Factor (by project vintage) Sample includes 397 projects totaling 37.6 GW 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Capacity-Weighted Average (by project vintage) Individual Project (by project vintage) 0% Pre-1998 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5 projects 24 projects 25 projects 38 projects 29 projects 22 projects 36 projects 72 projects 96 projects 50 projects 475 MW 777 MW 1,617 MW 2,061 MW 3,578 MW 1,755 MW 5,071 MW 8,008 MW 9,276 MW 4,989 MW •  Projects installed since 2005 have bucked the trend of generally increasing capacity factors among more-recently built projects 39
  • 40. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Turbine Scaling Should Boost Performance, but Is Offset By Declining Resource Quality •  Both hub height and Index of Wind Resource Quality at 80m (1998-99=100) 100 3.2 3.1 swept rotor area Inverse of Specific Power (m^2 / kW) 95 3.0 relative to turbine 2.9 capacity were 90 2.8 relatively stable 2.7 from 2006-2009 85 2.6 2.5 •  Rotor scaling since 80 2.4 2009 is expected to Average 80m Wind Resource Quality Among Built Projects (left scale) 2.3 boost performance Swept Area divided by Nameplate Capacity (right scale) 75 2.2 in future years 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 •  Projects increasingly sited in lower wind speed areas, particularly since 2008: 2011 projects were (on avg.) located in estimated 80-meter resource conditions that are 16.1% worse than projects built in 1998-99 à likely a result of improvements in low wind speed technology, transmission/siting limitations, and policy influences 40
  • 41. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Regional Performance Differences Are Apparent 60% Capacity-Weighted Average (by region) Individual Project (by region) 50% Capacity-Weighted Average (total U.S.) 2011 Capacity Factor 40% 30% 20% 10% Sample includes 305 projects built from 2004-2010 and totaling 32.8 GW 0% East New England California Great Lakes Northwest Texas Mountain Heartland 26 projects 10 projects 14 projects 29 projects 51 projects 48 projects 29 projects 98 projects 2,282 MW 291 MW 1,127 MW 3,898 MW 4,445 MW 8,256 MW 3,026 MW 9,468 MW Average capacity factors highest in the Heartland and Mountain regions, lowest in the East and New England 41
  • 42. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Performance Differences Are Roughly Consistent with the Relative Quality of the Wind Resource in Each Region Average wind speed at 80 meters New Northwest England Great Lakes East California Heartland Mountain Southeast Texas 42
  • 43. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Wind Power Price Trends 43
  • 44. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Sample of Wind Power Prices •  Berkeley Lab collects data on historical wind power sales prices •  Sample includes 271 projects built from 1998-2011, totaling 20,189 MW (44% of all wind capacity added in that period) •  Prices reflect the historical bundled price of electricity and RECs as sold by the project owner under a power purchase agreement –  Dataset excludes merchant plants and projects that sell renewable energy certificates (RECs) separately –  Prices reflect receipt of state and federal incentives (e.g., the PTC or Treasury grant), as well as various local policy and market influences; as a result, prices do not reflect wind energy generation costs 44
  • 45. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Cumulative, Sample-Wide Wind Power Prices Continued to Move Higher in 2011 70 Sample includes projects built from 1998-2011 60 Wind Power Price (2011 $/MWh) 50 40 30 20 10 Cumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (with 25% and 75% quartiles) 0 Year: 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Projects: 11 12 22 33 47 64 80 97 120 150 184 233 271 MW: 588 600 741 1,444 2,294 3,103 4,056 4,987 7,980 10,535 13,701 17,190 20,189 General trend of falling and then rising prices consistent with the project cost trends shown earlier, but cumulative nature of figure results in a smoother, less-responsive curve that lags the directional changes in cost trends 45
  • 46. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Binning Wind Power Sales Prices by Project Vintage Also Fails to Show a Price Reversal 120 Capacity-Weighted Average (by project vintage) 2011 Wind Power Price (2011 $/MWh) Individual Project (by project vintage) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 14 projects 21 projects 33 projects 21 projects 14 projects 24 projects 31 projects 53 projects 27 projects 33 projects 650 MW 854 MW 1,648 MW 1,269 MW 742 MW 3,190 MW 2,669 MW 3,987 MW 2,386 MW 2,793 MW Graphic shows prices in 2011 from projects built from 1998-2011 46
  • 47. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Binning Wind Power Sales Prices by PPA Execution Date Shows Steeply Falling Prices 120 Capacity-Weighted Average (by PPA vintage) Individual Projects (by PPA vintage) 2011 Wind Power Price (2011 $/MWh) 100 Individual Projects Built in 2011 (by PPA vintage) 80 60 40 20 0 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10 projects 13 projects 21 projects 24 projects 25 projects 12 projects 33 projects 41 projects 23 projects 2 projects 577 MW 939 MW 1,583 MW 2,402 MW 2,451 MW 1,638 MW 3,483 MW 4,320 MW 2,184 MW 150 MW •  In previous slide, substantial lag between PPA execution and project completion masked the recent reduction in prices that becomes apparent when projects are binned by PPA execution date 47
  • 48. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Focusing on a Smaller Sample of Full-Term PPAs Demonstrates that Levelized Wind Prices Declined in 2011 and Vary by Region $120 California (2,127 MW, 19 contracts) Levelized PPA Price (2011 $/MWh) $100 Rest of US (4,033 MW, 66 contracts) Wind Belt (10,882 MW, 131 contracts) $80 Full-term (rather than historical) $60 data allow for a $40 calculation of levelized prices $20 over the entire PPA duration $0 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 PPA Execution Date Among the sample of PPAs signed in 2011, the capacity-weighted average levelized price is $35/MWh, down from $59/MWh for PPAs signed in 2010 and $72/MWh for PPAs signed in 2009 48
  • 49. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Wind Pricing Varies Widely By Region 120 Sample includes projects built in 2010 and 2011 2011 Wind Power Price (2011 $/MWh) 100 80 60 40 Capacity-Weighted Average (by region) 20 Individual Project (by region) Capacity-Weighted Average (total U.S.) 0 Texas Heartland Mountain New England Great Lakes East Northwest California 1 project 23 projects 6 projects 3 projects 5 projects 5 projects 7 projects 10 projects 78 MW 1,395 MW 868 MW 113 MW 600 MW 314 MW 724 MW 1,088 MW Though sample size is problematic in several regions, Texas, the Heartland and the Mountain regions appear to be among the lowest price areas, on average, while California is by far the highest price region 49
  • 50. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Low Wholesale Electricity Prices Continued to Challenge the Relative Economics of Wind Power 90 Wind project sample includes 80 projects built from 1998-2011 70 60 2011 $/MWh 50 40 30 20 Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (for a flat block of power) 10 Cumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (with 25% and 75% quartiles) 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 47 projects 64 projects 80 projects 97 projects 120 projects 150 projects 184 projects 233 projects 271 projects 2,294 MW 3,103 MW 4,056 MW 4,987 MW 7,980 MW 10,535 MW 13,701 MW 17,190 MW 20,189 MW •  Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes across the U.S. •  Recent wholesale prices reflect low natural gas prices, driven by weak economy and shale gas •  Price comparison shown here is far from perfect – see full report for caveats 50
  • 51. WIND AND WATER POWER PROGRAM Gap Between Wholesale Prices and Wind Power Prices Crossed All Regions in 2011 But… many PPAs signed in 2011 (shown earlier, many at $30-40/MWh) are competitive at 2011 wholesale prices 120 Average 2011 Wholesale Power Price Range 2011 Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price 100 Individual Project 2011 Wind Power Price 2011 $/MWh 80 60 40 20 Wind project sample includes projects built in 2010 and 2011 0 Texas Heartland Mountain New England Great Lakes East Northwest California Total US 1 project 23 projects 6 projects 3 projects 5 projects 5 projects 7 projects 10 projects 60 projects 78 MW 1,395 MW 868 MW 113 MW 600 MW 314 MW 724 MW 1,088 MW 5,180 MW Notes: Within a region there are a range of wholesale prices because multiple price hubs exist in each area; price comparison shown here is far from perfect – see full report for caveats 51