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ChoiceForesight, Hindsight & Happiness,[object Object],Erik Ralston,[object Object],BIS Birds of a Feather,[object Object],January 20th, 2011,[object Object],1,[object Object]
Sources,[object Object],Dan Pink – Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motives Use,[object Object],2,[object Object],Dan Ariely – Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our DecisionsProfessor Duke University,[object Object],Dan Gilbert – Professor at Harvard University,[object Object]
Sources,[object Object],3,[object Object],Malcolm Gladwell – Blink and Outliers,[object Object],Barry Schwartz –The Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less,[object Object],Sheena Iyengar – Professor at Columbia University,[object Object]
Do I Make My Own Choices?(Do I Have Free Will?),[object Object],4,[object Object]
The Power of Defaults,[object Object],5,[object Object]
What drives Choices?,[object Object],6,[object Object]
Motivation!,[object Object],The Drive to Decide,[object Object],Excluding genuine need (or marketing), we need rewards,[object Object],Extrinsic Rewards are the most common motivators,[object Object],Better Pay = Better Work?  Only for basic tasks, for complex tasks one must rely on…,[object Object],7,[object Object]
Autonomy,[object Object],8,[object Object],Freedom to choose of all options,[object Object]
Mastery,[object Object],9,[object Object],A challenge that culminates in achievement,[object Object]
Purpose,[object Object],10,[object Object],Importance and high impact consequences,[object Object]
A.M.P. it UP!,[object Object],A.M.P. is better than any external motivator,[object Object],A.M.P. is best harnessed in hobbies and startups,[object Object],Are intrinsic motivators possible at work?  Not usually…,[object Object],Management prevents Autonomy,[object Object],Efficiency prevents Mastery,[object Object],Interchangeability prevents Purpose,[object Object],11,[object Object]
What Can I Choose?,[object Object],12,[object Object]
Recognizing Choices,[object Object],Choosing which choices are even possible,[object Object],Information is always processed as an abstraction and only in contrast creating greatest opportunity for bias,[object Object],Selection Bias,[object Object],Primacy Effect,[object Object],Recency Effect,[object Object],Our first decision is often to assume the choice matters,[object Object],Impact Bias,[object Object],13,[object Object]
14,[object Object]
15,[object Object]
16,[object Object]
The Paradox of Choice,[object Object],Intuition leads us to think more choice is better, but…,[object Object],More choices = more viable paths to happiness?,[object Object],There must be a perfect choice,[object Object],Analysis of all available choices is exhausting!,[object Object],Variety is not the same as autonomy!,[object Object],Variety is not the same as quality!,[object Object],More opportunities = more missed opportunities = regret!,[object Object],Try to remember: Perfect is the enemy of Good,[object Object],17,[object Object]
Bias In Action,[object Object],If there's a bustle in your hedgerow, don't be alarmed now, it's just a spring clean for the May queen. Yes there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run there's still time to change the road you're on.,[object Object],18,[object Object],Oh here's to my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad, whose power is Satan. He'll give those with him 666, there was a little toolshed where he made us suffer, sad Satan,[object Object]
How Do I Choose?,[object Object],19,[object Object]
Foresight,[object Object],Predicting outcomes of a particular path,[object Object],Of all animals, humans have the best foresight,[object Object],We are still not very good at it,[object Object],We can’t predict about choices we can’t recognize,[object Object],20,[object Object]
21,[object Object]
Axiomatic Foresight,[object Object],Literal application of “Rules” interpolating between instinct, advice, or limited experience,[object Object],Only requires memory and conditioning,[object Object],22,[object Object]
Simulated Foresight,[object Object],Complex simulation of outcomes in the mind extrapolating from previous experience,[object Object],Odds of Gain x Value of Gain = Rational Cost,[object Object],Requires experience and a pre-frontal cortex,[object Object],23,[object Object]
How Can I Make GoodChoices?,[object Object],24,[object Object]
Morality,[object Object],Morals are emotional, and often instinctual, systems for regulating decisions,[object Object],A different concept of optimum away from utility,[object Object],Harm/Care - Impact of decisions on welfare of others,[object Object],Fairness/Reciprocity - Level of equal benefit,[object Object],Ingroup/Loyalty - Benefit to members of my group,[object Object],Authority/Respect - Compliance with leaders,[object Object],Purity/Sanctity – Compliant with norms,[object Object],www.yourmorals.org,[object Object],25,[object Object]
Blink vs. Think,[object Object],Some decisions are instantaneous, some arduous,[object Object],We always blink, but don’t always think,[object Object],Experience and practice = speed and accuracy,[object Object],Size of consequences multiples required consideration,[object Object],Unless you are an expert, thinking is dangerous!,[object Object],26,[object Object]
27,[object Object]
Making Good Choices,[object Object],Even preferences need experience to discover,[object Object],Blink preference is different than think preference,[object Object],Blink preference is often better,[object Object],Only rely on “Expertise” if the person is really an expert,[object Object],And consult experts for big decisions,[object Object],28,[object Object]
How Can I Make Happy Choices?,[object Object],29,[object Object]
Hindsight,[object Object],The feelings evoked when thinking about past decisions,[object Object],Could be satisfaction, regret, ambivalence, etc,[object Object],Transient experiences better convert into rosy memories than permanent objects,[object Object],If you must choose between new furniture and a vacation,[object Object],Irreversible decisions made without alternatives are easier to live with than ,[object Object],30,[object Object]
31,[object Object]
Hindsight Isn’t 20/20,[object Object],Natural Happiness – “Getting What You Want”,[object Object],Synthetic Happiness – “Wanting What You’ve Got”,[object Object],Better than just rationalization and it happens much lower in the brain than memory & reasoning,[object Object],Still unhappy? Just remember that you will forget,[object Object],About 3 months erases mundane regret,[object Object],32,[object Object]
The Secret to Happy Decisions,[object Object],Lower your expectations,[object Object],Don’t expect perfection,[object Object],Blink Don’t Think (Unless it’s REALLY Important),[object Object],Sharp contrasts, instant connection, and economical decision-making time,[object Object],Accept the things you cannot change,[object Object],Permanence forces acceptance,[object Object],Forget the things you cannot accept,[object Object],33,[object Object]
Questions?,[object Object],34,[object Object]
Thank You!,[object Object],35,[object Object]

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