Discovering the economic and climatic boundaries for cropland expansion in Ethiopia

1. Discovering the economic and climatic
boundaries for cropland expansion in Ethiopia
Emily Schmidt and Timothy S. Thomas
International Food Policy Research Institute
The Future of Ethiopia’s Agriculture: Towards a Resilient System to End
Hunger and Undernutrition
Addis Ababa Hilton
December 15, 2017
Addis Ababa
1

2. Factors associated with changes in cropland
– Evaluate land area change over time (2001-2013) taking
into account economic and climatic conditions
Estimate the maximum [economic] cropland
expansion potential
– Taking into account a kebele’s unique characteristics, what
is the maximum [economic] crop expansion it could
achieve?
– Based on current cropped area share, how much more can
each kebele expand their cropland share?
Plan of presentation

3. Agricultural land expansion contributed an
important share to overall agricultural GDP growth
All crops Cereals
Non-
cereals
Share of agricultural GDP in 2004/05 100 56.2 43.8
Share of agricultural GDP in 2013/14 100 54.9 45.1
Contribution to total agricultural GDP 100 53.8 46.2
Increase in crop yields 60.3 40.7 19.7
Cultivated land expansion 27.5 15.4 12.0
Reallocating land to higher value
crops 12.2 -2.3 14.5
Contribution to agricultural GDP change, 2004/05-2013/14 (%)

4. Satellite data analysis of landcover over time
• Use satellite landcover data to evaluate landcover changes
over time
– MODIS land use and landcover satellite data produced
by NASA: 500 meter resolution between 2001 and 2013
– Average satellite data over time periods: 2001-2004
and 2010-2013
– Estimate kebele averages of cropped area over time
(excluding Somali and Afar)

5. Highland and lowland agriculture classifications
– Ethiopian highlands (>1500 meters above sea level) account for:
• 27% of total landmass
• 92% of total cultivated cereal area
• 81% of the total population

6. Share of cropped area in 2010-13

7. Percentage point change in crop area
from 2001-04 to 2010-13

8. Agricultural land expansion appears to be
slowing down
Source: Calculated from MODIS satellite data.
Tigray SNNP Amhara Oromia Other Total
2001-04 to
2005-09 2.7% 1.2% 3.9% 2.1% -1.5% 2.7%
2005-09 to
2009-13 0.1% -1.1% 0.8% 3.2% 4.0% 1.2%
2001-04 to
2009-13 1.2% 0.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.1% 1.8%
Total 2001-13 11.6% 0.3% 20.3% 23.2% 10.3% 17.0%
Average Annual Growth in Crop Area, 2001-04 to 2009-13

9. Evaluating factors associated with change in cropland
• How do bioeconomic variables influence the change in
proportion of kebele area in cropland:
∆𝐶 = 𝛼1 𝐶 + 𝛼2 𝐶2
+ 𝑋𝛽 + 𝜖
• After identifying the factors associated with changes in
cropland, we solve for the steady state in land conversion,
where ∆𝐶 = 0
∆𝐶 = 0 = 𝛼1 𝐶 + 𝛼2 𝐶2
+ 𝑋𝛽 + 𝜖
𝐶 =
−𝛼1 ± 𝛼1
2 − 4𝛼2 𝑋𝛽
2𝛼2

10. Factors associated with crop area expansion
• Initial share of cropland:
– The initial share of cropland significantly effects expansion potential
• Compared to a kebele with 40% crop area, the kebele with 8 percent
converted 14 percent more land
• Elevation, terrain and precipitation:
– Higher elevation and greater rainfall is associated with greater conversion
• Too much rain decreases land conversion (after 700mm of rain/year)
– Greater terrain roughness is associated with decreases in ag area expansion
• Access to markets:
– The farther a kebele is from town, the lower the probability of converting to
cropland.
– A kebele that is the median (distance) from a town (appx. 8 hours) will
convert to cropland at a rate of 2.7 percent slower than a kebele next to a
town of at least 20k

11. Maximum [economic] potential cropped area
The highlands, along roads leading to Addis Ababa, have the
maximum projected cropland percentages – in the country

12. Area expansion potential
The highlands have greater potential for cropped area,
however much of this land is already cultivated

13. Area expansion potential
Current %
cropland
Potential %
cropland
Potential %
expansion
Lowlands 15.9 34.5 18.6
Highlands 40.5 53.5 13.0
Ethiopia 37.0 50.9 13.8
• Percent in cropland in the highlands is 150% greater than in
the lowlands
• Potential for cropland is over 50% higher in the highlands
compared to the lowlands
• Area expansion potential is 50% higher in the lowlands

14. Urbanization and market connectivity may affect
agricultural land area expansion potential
Agglomeration index 2007 Agglomeration index 2015
• Secondary city growth
• Agglomeration index: measurement of urbanization taking into
account population density and access to an urban center
• Continued investment in transportation infrastructure

15. Medium size cities are growing at 5-6% per year.
1984-94 1994-07 2007-15
Cities 100-500k - 6.31% 5.09%
Cities 50-99k 5.37% 6.78% 6.15%
Cities/Towns 20-49k 4.81% 5.29% 5.74%
Growth rates of medium size cities

16. Maximum [economic] potential cropped area

17. Maximum [economic] potential cropped area
(decreased travel time)

18. How does improvements in road infrastructure
affect potential share of cropland
Potential %
cropland
Potential with
better
connectivity
Increase in
potential
cropland
Lowlands 34.5 48.3 13.8
Highlands 53.5 56.0 2.4
Ethiopia 50.9 54.9 4.0
• Increasing market access to urban centers (20k) does not
substantially increase the potential to expand agricultural area
in the highlands
• Better connectivity increases the potential to expand
agricultural area in the lowlands

19. Summary
• Agricultural area expansion in the highlands (>1500 masl) is
reaching its maximum [economic] potential
• Ethiopia should think strategically and spatially about future
agricultural productivity
– Continue to promote agricultural intensification in the
highlands
– Seek out opportunities to expand agricultural area in the
lowlands where underlying economic and climatic factors
support agricultural production