MUHAMMAD FAHAD ANSARI 12IEEM 14

1. Climate Change :
Impacts on Agriculture
MUHAMMAD FAHAD ANSARI
12IEEM 14

2. Climate Change
Noun
a long-term change in the earth's climate, especially a change
due to an increase in the average atmospheric temperature:
Melting glaciers imply that life in the Arctic is affected by
climate change.
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the
statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging
from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in
average weather conditions or the distribution of events
around that average (e.g., more or fewer extreme weather
events). Climate change may be limited to a specific region or
may occur across the whole Earth.

3. Current Issues in Agriculture
• Overproduction in short-term, yet food
insecurity for a large population
• Stagnation/decline in yields
• Diversification
• Natural resource management- SOM
decline, input use efficiencies, narrow
genetic base
• Quality and quantity of water resources
• Profitability: Increasing cost and
deceleration in TFP growth

4. E merging Scenario: Drivers of
Agricultural Transformation
• Increasing population leading to higher (and
quality) demand of food
• Increasing urbanization
• Increasing rural migration -tenant farming,
contract and cooperative farming
• Increasing inter- and intra-sectoral competition for
resources: land, water, energy, credit
• Increasing globalization: removal of trade barriers,
information and communication
• New technologies: Biotechnology, space and
information technology
 Increasing privatization of agricultural extension

5. Global climate change
• Global mean temperatures have increased by
0.74oC during last 100 years
• GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) increase,
caused by fossil fuel use and land use
changes, main reasons.
• Temperatures increase by 1.8-6.4 C by 2100
AD. Greater increase in rabi
• Precipitation likely to increase in kharif
• Snow cover is projected to contract
• More frequent hot extremes, heavy
precipitations
• Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.

6. Contribution of different sectors in world to
climate change.
(Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions)

7. What is the contribution of different
sectors in to climate change?
(Sources of greenhouse gas emissions)
Energy Land use
61% changes
1%
Agriculture
28%
Wastes Industrial
2% processes
8%

8. What sectors of agriculture in contribute
to climate change?
Manure Rice cultivation
m anagem ent 23%
Crop residues
5%
1%
Em ission from
soils
12%
Enteric
ferm entation
59%

9. Estimates of Future
Levels of CO2
Year CO2, ppm
2000 369
2010-2015 388-398
2050/2060 463-623
2100 478-1099

10. Most of the greenhouse gas emissions are
from the industrialized countries
30
USA and Canada
25
Japan, Australia
20
tons of CO2 eq/capita
and New zealand
15 Europe
Middle East
Latin America
10
East Asia Africa South Asia
5
0
Region

11. Climate Change
Scenarios for
India
Year Season Increase in Change in
o
Temperature, C Rainfall, %
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
2020s Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.36
Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10
2050s Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.82
Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52
2080s Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.50
Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18

12. Other observations of change in
global climate
• Globally, hot days, hot nights, and heat
waves have become more frequent.
• Frequency of heavy precipitation
events has increased over most land
areas.
• Global average sea level rose at an
average rate of 1.8 mm per year over
1961 to 2003.

13. Other changes in global climate
in future
 Tropical cyclones to become more
intense, with heavier precipitation.
 Snow cover is projected to contract.
 Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy
precipitation events will become more
frequent.
 The projected sea level rise to be 0.18 -
0.59 meters.

14. Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Wheat Production in developing countries
80
75
70
Production , Mtons
65
60
55
50
45
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002)

15. Projected impacts of climate change
on developing countries agriculture
 Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-40% by
2100.
 Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC increase
in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5
million tons. Loss only 1-2 million tons if farmers
could plant in time.
 Reduced frequency of frost damage: less
damage to potato, peas, mustard
 Increased droughts and floods are likely to
increase production variability

16. Projected impacts of climate change
on developing countries agriculture
 Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts
on Europe and N. America, and negative impacts
on us
 Increased water, shelter, and energy
requirement for livestock; implications for milk
production
 Increasing sea and river water temperatures are
likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and
harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.
 Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens,
and insects

17. Projected impacts of climate change
on developing countries agriculture
 Increasing temperature would increase
fertilizer requirement for the same
production targets; and result in higher
emissions
 Increasing sea and river water temperatures
are likely to affect fish breeding, migration,
and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from
2030.
 Increased water, shelter, and energy
requirement for livestock; implications for
milk production

18. Climate Variability and Climate Change-
Another Driver in Agriculture
• Increase in CO2
• Increase in temperature
• Change in precipitation
• Sea level rise
• Variability and extreme events
such as floods and drought

19. Projected beneficial impacts of climate change on
developing countries agriculture
Reduced frequency of frost damage:
less damage to potato, peas, mustard
New ‘flooded’ areas may become
available for fisheries in coastal
regions
Other potential benefits, if any, need to
be characterized

20. Impacts on Agriculture
• May alter spatial and temporal
demands and supply by impacting:
– Food production
– Stability and sustainability
– Employment and Autonomy
– Profitability
– Trade & economy
– Global financial Crisis

21. Adaptation and mitigation framework:
Need to consider emerging scenario
• Greater demand for (quality) food; yields
need to increase by 30-50% by 2030
• Increasing urbanization and globalization
• Increasing competition from other sectors
for land, energy, water and capital
• Climate change a continuous process;
greater focus on short-term actions on
adaptation and mitigation

22. Key adaptation strategies
¢ Assisting farmers in coping with
current climatic risks
¢ Intensifying food production
systems
¢ Improving land and water
management
¢ Enabling policies
¢ Strengthening adaptation research

23. Information Needs- Scenarios
• Changes in CO2 with time
• Spatial and temporal changes in
temperature and rainfall
• Impact on groundwater and surface
water availability, floods and droughts,
sea level rise

24. Impact assessment- Information
Needs
Where, how and at what cost food (crops,
livestock products and fish) can be
produced to meet the increasing demand
and/or what alternative technologies would
be needed to meet the desired production
targets?
Which region and the social group would be
more affected as a consequence of global
environmental change?

25. Impact assessment- Information
Needs
Which pests will start migrating to currently
uninfected areas?
How does climate change affect the quality
of cereals, spices, medicinal plants, tea and
coffee?
How inter-state and international trade of
different commodities is likely to be affected
by global warming considering differential
impacts on competing states and

26. Adaptations to Climate
Change
• New varieties: drought/heat resistant
• New farm management practices
• Change in land use
• Watershed management
• Agri-insurance

27. India Adapting to Global Warming by
Changed Management of Wheat in North
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Change in grain yield, %
0
-5
-10
-15 Minimum
New management
-20
Maximum
-25
-30
-35

28. Mitigation of Climatic Change/
Feedbacks on Environment
 Agro-forestry systems
 Resource conservation
technologies
 Enriching soil organic matter
 Biofuels

29. Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks
on Environment : Information Needs
Can alternate land use systems such as
plantation crops and agroforestry increase
carbon sequestration and yet meet food
demand?
How much area can be taken out from
agriculture for forestry; where and what policy
measures would be needed?
How much carbon is conserved by limited
tillage options? For how long and in which
regions?
What policies and technologies would
encourage the farmers to enrich organic matter
in the soil and thus improve soil health?

30. Conclusions
• Climate change is a reality
• Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses
due to heat, erratic weather, and decreased
irrigation availability
• Adaptation strategies can help minimize
negative impacts
• These need research, funding, and policy
support
• Costs of adaptation and mitigation are
unknown but likely to be high; costs of
inaction could be even higher
• Start with ‘no-regrets’ adaptation options

31. Climate change…Is it the
Beginning of the end..??
The earth is heating..So is the
environment..
Now..Its Upto Us..What We can
Do..??

32. Come Forward..
Join hands..
Save Agriculture..to sustain
ourselves..

33. Thank You