The document summarizes recent polling data on the 2018 Brazilian presidential election. It finds that former president Lula maintains the highest voting intentions at 30%, though he is barred from running. His replacement as the Workers' Party candidate, Haddad, pulls 19% in a scenario without Lula. Jair Bolsonaro is next highest at 17% or 19% depending on the scenario. The document analyzes the policy positions and viability of the two leading candidates to replace Lula, Marina Silva and Bolsonaro. However, it argues that neither present solutions to Brazil's deep economic problems and that alternatives like Ciro Gomes could better promote structural changes and a development model privileging national interests over international capital.

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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SCENARIOS IN BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado *
The research Data Folha of the presidential elections in Brazil published on the website
<http://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2018/06/1971537-sem-lula-bolsonaro-so-e-
superado-por-brancos -e-nulos.shtml> informs that former president Lula (PT- Workers
Party) maintains the highest rate of voting intentions for the presidency of the Republic
among the pre-candidates with names placed for the dispute. With 30% in the only
scenario where his name is tested, Lula is ahead of Jair Bolsonaro, who has 17%, and
Marina Silva, who has 10%. With Lula out of the presidential race and Haddad as PT
candidate, Bolsonaro (19%) leads, and Marina (15%) comes on the next level. With
Lula out of the presidential race and Haddad as a PT candidate, the region dispute in
Brazil shows the pre-candidate Bolsonaro in an advantage in the Midwest, in the South
region and in the Southeast region. In the Northeast and North of Brazil, Marina Silva
leads.
The research Data Folha informs that among Lula's voters in the scenario where his
name is tested, 17% prefer Marina and 13% choose Cyrus when Lula is replaced by
Haddad. A substantial part (40%) of the intentions of the former president chooses to
vote blank or void in his absence from the election. In another scenario tested, without
PT applications, Bolsonaro has 19%, and Marina appears with 15%. In the intention to
vote spontaneously, when the names of potential candidates are not presented to voters,
12% cite Bolsonaro as the name already chosen for the presidential election, at the same
level as those mentioned by Lula (10%). The rejection of the presidential candidates
was also consulted in the research Data Folha, and two former presidents lead the list:
39% declare that they would not vote at all on Fernando Collor, who is followed by
Lula rejected by 36%. In the sequence appears Bolsonaro, in which 32% would not
vote, and then Alckmin (27%), Marina (24%), Ciro (23%), Maia (20%), Meirelles
Fidelix (16%), Alencar (13%), Wagner (12%), Dias (12%), Rebelo (11%), Manuela
Castro (11%), Goulart Filho (10%), Amoedo (10%) and Afif (10%).
In the second round simulations conducted by research Datafolha, former President Lula
stayed ahead in the situations in which his name was presented to voters. In the clash
between Lula and Bolsonaro, 49% prefer the former president, and 32%, the federal
deputy. Without Lula, Marina would beat Alckmin, Ciro and Bolsonaro, with the latter
being the most competitive opponent at the moment. If the second round was disputed
between Marina and Bolsonaro, Marina Silva would have 42% of the intentions to vote,
compared to 32% of Bolsonaro. The weight of Lula's support for a candidate in the race
for the presidency has been stable since April: 30% would certainly vote for a name
supported by the PT, and 17% would perhaps vote. The share of those who would not
vote is 51%. 62% indicated that they would follow their nomination for another
presidential candidacy.
Considering that Lula will not be a candidate, Bolsonaro and Marina Silva are in the
best position to reach the second round of presidential elections. Without Lula in the
elections, the second round will put Bolsonaro and Marina Silva ahead as the most
likely contenders. The voters of Lula, Ciro Gomes, Alvaro Dias, Manuela D'Ávila, João
Goulart Filho, Guilherme Boulos and Aldo Rebelo, would probably vote for ideological
reasons in Marina Silva due to their longstanding ties with the PT and left-wing political

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forces because of their old ties with the PT winning her in the second round against
Bolsonaro. This likely transfer of votes to Marina Silva would explain the result of the
second round simulations conducted by research Datafolha that points Marina Silva's
victory over Bolsonaro. The voters of Geraldo Alckmin, Fernando Collor, Henrique
Meirelles, Rodrigo Maia, Flávio Rocha, João Amoêdo, Guilherme Afif Domingos, Levy
Fidelix and Paulo Rabello de Castro would probably vote for Jair Bolsonaro for
ideological reasons and because he would not constitute a threat to the interests of the
ruling classes unlike Marina Silva because of their longstanding ties to the PT and leftist
political forces.
After all, what do you think Marina Silva pre-candidate? The former minister has
already said against the privatizations of Petrobras, Eletrobras, Banco do Brasil and
Caixa. Defends the maintenance of the Bolsa Família Program. She says that the deficit
in Social Security is undeniable by arguing that dialogue has to be done with all society
and not just with the economic elite, but has not yet presented a model that would
defend if elected. It is critical of the labor reform proposed by the government Michel
Temer considering it inadmissible to have workers who are in the process of waiting,
being summoned at any moment by the employer. For her, the problem of public
security is not solved by "distributing weapons to the people" and defends public
policies for the most vulnerable population. It is against the PEC (Draft Constitutional
Amendment) approved by the Temer government and says that the measures are a
"blow" in public policies. For her, spending must be controlled through budget law and
not with change in the Constitution. As for economic policy, it says that it is
"demagoguery" to say that it will reduce the tax burden, but promises to combat the
impact on the poorest and to promote a more decentralized division of resources to the
benefit of states [VEJA. Eleições 2018: o que pensa Marina Silva, pré-candidata da Rede (2018
elections: what think Marina Silva, the Rede's pre-candidate). Available on the website <
https://veja.abril.com.br/politica/eleicoes-2018-o-que-pensa-marina-silva-pre-candidata-
da-rede/>]. It can be seen that Marina Silva's government program is too timid to face
and overcome Brazil's gigantic problems, besides not pointing out that it would break
with the neoliberal economic model that inflicts Brazil. Marina Silva will not solve
Brazil's economic problems.
So what think Jair Bolsonaro pre-candidate? He intends to carry out a privatization
program, but says it will only disclose the state-owned companies involved in August,
when its government program will be launched and, on Petrobras, said that the theme
"has entered its radar", but does not yet have a definition and about public banks, said
"studying" the possibility. Formerly critical of Bolsa Família Program, he now
advocates maintaining the "audited" program. He says it is against the government's
pension reform proposal, because it is "too big". Bolsonaro said that he is studying the
issue of labor reform thinking of proposing gradual changes in pensions, prioritizing the
fight against the "factory of maharajas". He voted in favor of the proposal of the labor
reform in the Chamber of Deputies. On interviews, he has repeated what he says he has
heard from businessmen: that Brazilian workers may have to choose between having
"fewer jobs and more rights" or the opposite. To combat crime, it aims to promote the
tightening of criminal law, strengthen policing and promote the revision of the
Disarmament Statute. As a federal deputy, he voted in favor of the PEC which froze
public spending for 20 years. As for economic policy, the "guru" of the candidate in
economics, Paulo Guedes is in favor of maintaining the macroeconomic tripod (with
fiscal and inflation targeting, with floating exchange rate regime) and argues for the

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need of a tax simplification towards a tax the only federal government [VEJA. Eleições
2018: o que pensa Jair Bolsonaro, pré-candidato do PSL (What thinks Jair Bolsonaro, pre-
candidate of the PSL). Available on the website <
https://veja.abril.com.br/brasil/eleicoes-2018-o-que-pensa-jair-bolsonaro-pre-candidato-
do-psl/>]. It can be seen that the Bolsonaro program is clearly neoliberal. This means
that he would maintain the status quo. Jair Bolsonaro will not solve Brazil's economic
problems.
Unfortunately, none of the two most competitive candidates to win the presidential
elections in Brazil does not present an effective solution to promote the development of
Brazil that faces a deep recession never seen in Brazil's history. In order to promote
economic growth in order to raise employment and income levels that will result in the
well-being of its population, as well as to create an environment conducive to
investments in productive activity, it is necessary that the future President of the
Republic solve urgently the problem of public accounts chronically deficient and
combat economic stagnation that threatens the country's future.
What is the problem with Brazilian public accounts? Explosive growth of government
spending fueled by the massive expansion of public debt that currently reaches R$ 3.6
trillion, which obliges the government to allocate more than 50% of the Union budget to
the payment of interest and amortization on public debt. To reduce the size of public
spending, it is necessary to reduce interest payments (R$ 695 billion) by renegotiating
with creditors the lengthening of the payment of public debt so that the federal
government will have the necessary resources for its investments. The real fiscal
adjustment that should be adopted to solve the problem of public accounts at the
moment would contemplate, on the one hand, the increase of the public collection with:
1) taxation of large fortunes with assets over R$1 billion that could yield approximately
R$ 100 billion per year; and (2) an increase in the tax on banks whose profits have been
stratospheric and, on the other, to reduce government spending by: 1) drastically
reducing the number of ministries and public agencies and expenditures at all levels of
government; and (2) a drastic reduction of the basic interest rate of the economy (Selic)
to reduce the size of public debt and the burden of paying interest and amortizing public
debt.
In order to combat the recession, there is a need to increase the productive activity in
general, which will only take place with the indispensable reduction of the interest rates
practiced by the financial system, the tax burden and the cost of the country's energy
and transportation logistics. For this to happen, it is essential that: 1) the Central Bank
act on the financial system to drastically reduce the interest rates it has practiced to raise
household consumption and private investment; 2) the federal government reduces the
tax burden by reducing its burden by paying interest on public debt by renegotiating
with creditors the lengthening of its payment; and 3) the federal government encourages
the private sector to invest in energy, transportation and communications infrastructure
to reduce the cost of its logistics.
In an exceptional situation like the present there is an imperative need to plan national
development. The future Brazilian government should devise an economic plan that will
contribute to the resumption of Brazil's development that will give the population and
the productive sectors a perspective of resumption of economic growth. It is the current
economic recession and the lack of a development plan the main factors that lead to the

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immobility of the private sector in the realization of investments in Brazil leading to a
real paralysis. In addition, the Brazilian government should adopt measures to reduce
Brazil's external vulnerability. Capital control is the most important part of a sustained
growth and economic development strategy, especially in economies marked by
macroeconomic instability such as Brazil. The control of capital must be carried out
with the taxation on the inflow of foreign capital. Capital control allows the selection of
capital flows by confining speculative capital to manageable volumes and isolating the
economy to some degree from external financial shocks.
Unfortunately for Brazil, the two most competitive candidates in the next elections do
not propose any of the measures described above necessary to overcome the country's
economic problems. Marina Silva and Jair Bolsonaro would not be able to promote the
structural changes necessary for the development of Brazil. The future of Brazil is
threatened either with the victory of Marina Silva and Jair Bolsonaro that do not
formulate anything in this direction. It is urgent to elect a candidate who is able to break
with neoliberalism and implement a national development model that privileges
national interests and not those of international capital, especially those of financial
capital. The candidates Ciro Gomes, Alvaro Dias, Manuela D'Ávila, João Goulart Filho,
Guilherme Boulos and Aldo Rebelo are those who could make the necessary changes to
Brazil at the present time. By the research Data Folha, Ciro Gomes is the one that would
meet the most conditions to win the elections after Marina Silva and Bolsonaro.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in
Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and
consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy
systems, is the author of 13 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian
Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social
Development, Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that
Changed the World.