Energy democracy is coming, but are Nebraska's (publicly-owned) electric utilities ready? This presentation by ILSR's Director of Democratic Energy John Farrell in Nov. 2015 explores the big changes confronting the electricity system and how power can be generated and controlled locally.

1. T H E C O M I N G O F
E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y
E N E R G I Z I N G ‘ T H E G O O D L I F E ’
John Farrell
Director of Democratic EnergyNovember 21, 2015
Presentation to Nebraska Sierra Club

2. A L I T T L E H I S T O RY

3. Which best describes the
electricity system?

4. Which best describes the
electricity system?

5. Centralized Power
House
Commercial
building
Factory
Transmission
network
Distribution
network

6. T I M E S , T H E Y A R E A
C H A N G I N G

7. S AV I N G S T H R O U G H P S Y C H O L O G Y
1,221 kWh
846 kWh
448 kWh
Efficient
neighbors
All neighbors
YOU
Bill date: Jul 1 -Jul 31
Great
Good
More than average
>
You used 47% less
than your efficient neighbors
HOW YOU’RE DOING

8. S AV I N G S T H R O U G H P S Y C H O L O G Y
1,221 kWh
846 kWh
448 kWh
Efficient
neighbors
All neighbors
YOU
Bill date: Jul 1 -Jul 31
Great
Good
More than average
>
You used 47% less
than your efficient neighbors
HOW YOU’RE DOING
1-3% savings

9. D E M A N D M A N A G E M E N T

10. D E M A N D M A N A G E M E N T
1 utility,
330 megawatts =

11. S M A R T
C O N T R O L

12. S M A R T
C O N T R O L
10-12% savings on heating
and 15% savings on cooling

13. E N E R G Y S T O R A G E ( S O O N )

14. When did electricity sales peak
nationwide?
• 2013
• 2010
• 2007
• 2005
• earlier

15. 3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
P E A K
S TA G N A N T R E TA I L S A L E S
trillion kilowatt-hours

16. What is the last year fossil fuel provided
> 60% of new power plant capacity?
• 2013
• 2010
• 2007
• 2005
• earlier

17. Percentofnewcapacity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Fossil fuel Renewable
Gigawattsadded(whiteline)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q2
R I S I N G R E N E WA B L E E N E R G Y S H A R E
June 10, 2015
of new power plant capacity

18. Percentofnewcapacity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Coal Gas Wind Small Solar Big Solar
Gigawattsadded(whiteline)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q2
SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH OF DISTRIBUTED SOLAR
44%
26%
18%
12%
June 10, 2015

19. N E B R A S K A FA R M E R S G O I N G S O L A R
Credit: Matt Ryerson/Lincoln Journal StarJournal Star 10/25/15, http://bit.ly/1HWLT2m

20. C O S T P R E S S U R E S
Lower wholesale prices mean utilities
with excess generation sell for less

21. AV E R A G E R E S I D E N T I A L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E
0¢
3¢
6¢
9¢
12¢
15¢
12.6¢
8¢
R E L AT I V E LY L O W C O S T S
( H I S T O R I C A L LY )

22. At a high
environmental
cost

23. Centralized Power
Yesterday Tomorrow
Local CHP
plant
Storage
House with
geothermal
Clean, local power
2015
House
Commercial
building
Factory
Transmission
network
Distribution
network

24. F O R WA R D O R
B A C K WA R D ?

25. F E E L S L I K E F O R WA R D
“The nice thing about solar, when is the sun blaring the
most? In the summer. So it matches up with our peak
demand and really helps us.”
Shelley Sahling-Zart
Journal Star 10/25/15, http://bit.ly/1HWLT2m

26. F E E L S L I K E F O R WA R D
“The nice thing about solar, when is the sun blaring the
most? In the summer. So it matches up with our peak
demand and really helps us.”
Shelley Sahling-Zart
“we’re a long ways from
[the 1% net metering limit]”
Journal Star 10/25/15, http://bit.ly/1HWLT2m

27. B A C K WA R D B I L L I N G P R O P O S E D

28. B A C K WA R D B I L L I N G P R O P O S E D
F R U G A L U S E R S
PAY M O R E
B I G U S E R S
PAY L E S S

29. Energy
efficiency
Makes cheapest
energy less
attractive

30. Fixed costs
don’t mean
fixed charges in
most businesses

31. F I X E D C H A R G E S
Fixed charges
subsidize poor
choices (because
customers
always pay)

32. Fixed charges
slay solar

33. N E B R A S K A I S N O T A L O N E
STATES FACING CHALLENGES TO DISTRIBUTED POWER
Sources: Renewable Energy World, Greentech Media, IREC, Vote Solar and many more
10/21/15
http://bit.ly/DG-UnderFireMapData-ILSR

34. W H AT ’ S P O S S I B L E ?

35. H O W M A N Y S TAT E S C A N G E T 1 0 0 % O R
M O R E O F T H E I R E L E C T R I C I T Y L O C A L LY ?
• 8
• 15
• 30
• 42
• all of them

36. S TAT E C L E A N E N E R G Y P O T E N T I A L
Source: Energy Self-Reliant States, 2nd Edition
100% or more
75 to 100%
50 to 75%
25 to 50%
25% or less
Potential percent of
power from local
renewables
30 states!

37. Residential and Commercial roofs
L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L
50% or more
25 to 50%
10 to 25%
25-50%
50%+
15-25%
P O T E N T I A L P E R C E N T
O F P O W E R F R O M
L O C A L R O O F T O P
S O L A R

38. 8500
590
750
30,000
16,000
7200
11,000
1800
990
3600
12,000
780
7000
8200
5100
11,000
1900
26,000
2400
7300
5100
360
2600
1100
1200
800
1400
4800
1800
32,000
5000
580
970
2300
4100
4400
2900
7200
6800
2800
7100
11,000
11,000
550010,000
12,000
20
1140
700
4000
Percent of Sales
1-5%
5-10%
10% or moreSource: http://www.ilsr.org/commercial-roofop-revolution/
*No incentives
D I S T R I B U T E D S O L A R P O T E N T I A L AT
PA R I T Y * B Y 2 0 2 2
(Megawatts,
residential & commercial)

39. 2300 megawatts
E N O U G H S O L A R T O M E E T P E A K
2256 megawatts at peak winter energy use

40. 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
$10.00
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Weighted Avg. Cost ($/W)
Cumulative Capacity (MW)
SOLAR INSTALLS DRIVE RAPID PRICE DECLINE

41. Everyone a
Georgetown?
No municipal utilities
100% wind/solar at 9 to 10.2¢ per kWh
100% wind/solar at 7.5 to 9¢ per kWh
100% wind/solar at 5.9 to 7.5¢ per kWh
5.9 to 7.5¢ per kWh
9 to 10.2¢
per kWh
7.5 to 9¢
per kWh
7.5 to 9¢
per kWh
The per-kilowatt-hour cost for each state’s largest municipal electric
utility to mimic Georgetown, TX, and supply the equivalent of 100%
or more of its retail sales from wind and sun alone
The Low Cost of
100% Renewable

42. W H AT C A N W E D O ?

43. R E A D
U P

44. F I R E B A C K
STATES FACING CHALLENGES TO DISTRIBUTED POWER
Sources: Renewable Energy World, Greentech Media, IREC, Vote Solar and many more
10/21/15
http://bit.ly/DG-UnderFireMapData-ILSR

45. All Nebraska
utilities are
public power,
owned by the
cities they serve!

46. E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y I S
C O M I N G

47. Credit: Markus Lütkemeyer via Flickr
The 20th
century utility
had few
resources to
juggle

48. The 21st century
utility may not
have the
capacity alone

49. E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y I N A C T I O N
INDEPENDENT
LOCAL GRID
MANAGER
= super efficient buildings
A solution that
New York is
pursuing

50. A likely outcome
for a monopoly
that makes less
sense as control
disperses

51. T H A N K Y O U !
@johnffarrell
www.ilsr.org
C H A N G I N G
T H E R U L E S
P R O V I D I N G
T O O L S
1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E
L O C A L E C O N O M Y
H U M A N
S C A L E
L O C A L
O W N E R S H I P
D E M O C R AT I C
A U T H O R I T Y
I L L U S T R AT I N G
T H E V I S I O N