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Reverse Power Flow: How solar+batteries shift electric grid decision making from utilities to customers

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For 100 years, most decisions about the U.S. electric grid have been made at the top by electric utilities, public regulators, and grid operators. That era has ended.

Small-scale solar has provided one-fifth of new power plant capacity in each of the last four quarters, and over 10 percent in the past five years. One in 5 new California customers of the nation’s largest residential solar company are adding energy storage to their solar arrays. Economic defection––when electricity customers produce most of their own electricity––is not only possible, but rapidly becoming cost-effective. As the flow of power on the grid has shifted one-way to two-way, so has the power to shape the electric grid’s future.

Publicado en: Medio ambiente
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Reverse Power Flow: How solar+batteries shift electric grid decision making from utilities to customers

  1. 1. R E V E R S E P O W E R F L O W H O W S O L A R + B AT T E R I E S S H I F T E L E C T R I C G R I D D E C I S I O N M A K I N G F R O M U T I L I T I E S T O C O N S U M E R S John Farrell July 18, 2018 Credit: (solar house) energymatters.com.au (CC 2.0); (sign) modified from Flickr user InertiaCreeps
  2. 2. P O L L : W H E N WA S N E T M E T E R I N G F I R S T U S E D ? A) 1968 B) 1972 C) 1979 D)1985 E) 1993
  3. 3. 1 9 7 9 Steven Strong
  4. 4. S U R P R I S E ! Utilities are just as prepared today
  5. 5. S T O R A G E I S H E R E
  6. 6. SURGE IN RESIDENTIAL ENERGY STORAGE Source: U.S. Energy Storage Monitor, Q2 2018 ResidentialEnergyStorages Deployments(MWh) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018
  7. 7. WHERE SOLAR+STORAGE WORKS NOW 90% 52% 80% 14% 71% 16% 49% 25% 27% 23% Percent of residential customers with solar+storage cheaper than the average utility revenue per kilowatt-hour 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75% or more CT 77% 70% MA 51% MD 45% NH 70% ME 17% NJ 57% RI 80% VT 73% Percent of residential electricity customers Solar+storage at 14.6¢ in St. Louis DC 0% DE 0% 2016 prices
  8. 8. B R O A D O P P O R T U N I T Y T O AV O I D D E M A N D C H A R G E S
  9. 9. R A P I D LY FA L L I N G B AT T E RY C O S T S $ per megawatt-hour $0 $175 $350 $525 $700 Source: Lazard Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis (2015, 2016, 2017) Lithium-ion Battery for Peaker Replacement 2015 2016 2017
  10. 10. B AT T E RY P R I C E F O R E C A S T S Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  11. 11. P O L L : A R E B AT T E R I E S G E T T I N G C H E A P E R T H A N F O R E C A S T ? A)Yes B) No
  12. 12. Actual P R I C E D E C L I N E S O U T S T R I P P R O J E C T I O N S
  13. 13. WHERE SOLAR+STORAGE WORKS SOON 0% 0% 90% 71% 85% 58% 46% 54% 3% 40% 55% 84% 69% 75% 75% 49% 36% 71% 20% 8% 10% 28% 34% 60% 24% 3% 11% 32% 66% 52% 55% 2% 16% 3% 0% 41% 2% 40% 63% Percent of residential customers with solar+storage cheaper than the average utility revenue per kilowatt-hour 25-50% 50-75% 75% or more10-25% Percent of residential electricity customers CT 78% MA 56% MD 71% NH 71% ME 73% NJ 79% RI 81% VT 81% 70% Solar+storage at 11.7¢ in St. Louis DE 3% DC 0% 45% 2022 prices
  14. 14. A N I N A D V E R T E N T T R I P L E T H R E AT
  15. 15. A N I N A D V E R T E N T T R I P L E T H R E AT F R O M D I S T R I B U T E D S O L A R + S T O R A G E More valuable FasterIndependent
  16. 16. 1 G E N E R AT I O N T R A N S M I S S I O N D I S T R I B U T I O N 3¢ 3¢ 4¢ Approximate cost of energy if ultimate customer pays 10¢ per kilowatt-hour + + Energy has more value the closer it is produced to home
  17. 17. 1 I N S TA L L E V E RY 6 0 S E C O N D S 2
  18. 18. P O L L : H O W M A N Y N E T M E T E R E D S O L A R A R R AY S I N C A L I F. ? A) 25,000 B) 250,000 C) 450,000 D) 830,000 E)1,200,000
  19. 19. 3 800,000 customer- planned power plants
  20. 20. A N I N A D V E R T E N T T R I P L E T H R E AT I M P L I C AT I O N S
  21. 21. D I A B L O C A N Y O N Credit: ”Mike” Michael L. Baird Closing due to stagnant sales, competitive renewables
  22. 22. AFFORDABLE REPLACEMENT POWER The per-kilowatt-hour cost for supplying the equivalent of 100% or more of retail sales from wind and sun alone Sources: wind and solar (ILSR, Level10, Berkeley Labs); Nuclear plant economics (Bloomberg— https://bloom.bg/2IpvJtv) 2 0 1 7 - 1 8 P R I C E S Nuclear power plant with marginal economics 1 to 2¢ per kWh 2 to 3¢ per kWh 3 to 4¢ per kWh 4 to 5¢ per kWh COST OF 100% WIND AND SOLAR More than a 10% price premium
  23. 23. P U E N T E G A S P L A N T
  24. 24. R E G U L AT O R S VA S T LY O V E R S TAT E C O S T O F L O C A L A LT E R N AT I V E S
  25. 25. S O L A R U N D E R C U T S P E A K I N G G A S P L A N T S Solar PV — Rooftop C&I Solar PV — Crystalline Utility-Scale Gas Peaking $ per megawatt-hour 0 75 150 225 300 Source: Lazard LCOE, November 2015 $109 $193 $58 $70 $165 $218 Inexpensive solar +
  26. 26. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Kittner, et al. Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition F O R E C A S T E D B AT T E RY PA C K P R I C E S W I T H T W O - FA C T O R L E A R N I N G M O D E L $ per kilowatt-hour of capacity Inexpensive solar + inexpensive batteries =
  27. 27. PLANNED GAS PEAKERS IN TROUBLE 395 939 2700 34 80 260 300 40 90 6031 171 250 93 9 Nearly 10 gigawatts of planned gas peaking power plants are in states with competitive solar + storage CT9 0 MA5 2 5 190 NJ4 3 4 CT9 0 Megawatts of planned gas peakers 300 277 PV insolation: http://bit.ly/2pwou7C (NREL, 2012) Power plants: http://bit.ly/2DZDm2N (EIA, 2018) Places where regulators have halted gas peaker deployment States with a similar solar resource
  28. 28. ILSR modeled a peaking plant alternative to shaving entire 1- hour super peak window: 271 MW and ~271 MWh P E A K I N G P O W E R P L A N T A LT E R N AT I V E
  29. 29. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm P E A K I N G P O W E R P L A N T A LT E R N AT I V E Megawatts Using demand response, solar, and storage in place of a peaking plant 11 MW Demand response 292 MW Solar 230 MW Batteries 271 MW peak demand
  30. 30. L O C A L A LT E R N AT I V E G O O D F O R L O C A L E C O N O M Y
  31. 31. R E V E R S I N G T H E P O W E R F L O W
  32. 32. B O N F I R E O F R I S K Y S P E N D I N G ?
  33. 33. B O N F I R E O F R I S K Y S P E N D I N G ? 0 gigawatts 15 gigawatts 30 gigawatts 45 gigawatts 60 gigawatts Planned retirements of nuclear, gas, and coal Planned gas power plant capacity additions Source: Energy Information Administration In the next 4 years…
  34. 34. S O L A R + S T O R A G E P R E S E N T S S T I F F C O M P E T I T I O N F O R G A S $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $ per megawatt-hour Sources: Lazard LCOE, November 2017; Utility Dive Gas combined cycle price range Solar+storage bids to Xcel Colorado
  35. 35. RECENT GAS PEAKERS IN TROUBLE 3262 5 18 40 520 47 129 37 35 87 24 42 79 2 2055 235 20 60 6 147 5 9 Over 5 gigawatts of recently built gas peaking power plants are in states with competitive solar + storage Places where regulators have halted gas peaker deployment States with a similar solar resource CT9 0 MA1 5 564 NJ6 3 CT9 0 Megawatts of recently built gas peakers 16 148 Power plants: http://bit.ly/2DZDm2N (EIA, 2013-18) PV insolation: http://bit.ly/2pwou7C (NREL, 2012) 143 1644 MD1 2 9
  36. 36. U T I L I T I E S R E S P O N D I N C O N S I S T E N T LY
  37. 37. DC AK HI Source: The 50 States of Solar: Q1 2016, NC Clean Energy Technology - Q1 2016 action - No recent action D I S T R I B U T E D G E N E R AT I O N U N D E R F I R E 1 Lobbying against distributed generation
  38. 38. Blue Wing Solar Project, San Antonio; Credit: Duke Energy 2 Building utility-scale renewables
  39. 39. T O T H E O W N E R , T H E S P O I L S $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 Tucson Electric Power customer AZ Public Service customer $19,400 $14,900 $5,600 $6,800 Utility-owned Customer-owned 25-year net benefit to the customer of utility-owned v. customer-owned solar $13,800 utility benefit $8,100 utility benefit 3 Building utility-owned distributed generation
  40. 40. N E E D E D R U L E S
  41. 41. C A P T U R E T H E S E VA L U E S T R E A M S
  42. 42. A S A M P L E 4 R U L E S F O R C A P T U R I N G VA L U E O F E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y •State regulators: Issue a moratorium on new gas power plants •Regional markets: Lower thresholds for distributed energy resource aggregation •State legislators: Adopt “A” level interconnection rules •Local officials: procure energy storage for public buildings and simplify permitting for distributed energy
  43. 43. www.ilsr.org C H A N G I N G T H E R U L E S P R O V I D I N G T O O L S 1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E L O C A L E C O N O M Y H U M A N S C A L E L O C A L O W N E R S H I P D E M O C R AT I C A U T H O R I T Y I L L U S T R AT I N G T H E V I S I O N
  44. 44. www.ilsr.org R E A D M O R E @johnffarrell F O L L O W S H A R E

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