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Eurodollar Futures and TED spread
             Trading

       Training Workshop
           François Choquet
     Advanced Application Specialist
               July 2011
Motivations and Applications
• Speculation on views on interest rates.
• Hedge against fluctuations in Interest Rates.
  1.   Convert fixed rate loans into floating rate loans.
  2.   Convert Floating rate loans into fixed rate loans.
  3.   Hedging using a stack of Eurodollar Contracts
  4.   Hedging using a strip of Eurodollar Contracts
Motivations and Applications
• Speculation on views on interest rates.
• Hedge against fluctuations in Interest Rates.
  1.   Convert fixed rate loans into floating rate loans.
  2.   Convert Floating rate loans into fixed rate loans.
  3.   Hedging using a stack of Eurodollar Contracts
  4.   Hedging using a strip of Eurodollar Contracts
Speculating with IR Futures
• Trading by holding an outright positions i.e.
  long or short or trading a spread
• The long trader bets that interest rate will fall
  so the price of the futures will rise
• The short trader bets that interest rate will
  rise so the price of the futures will fall.
• The spread trader bets that interest rate curve
  will steepen or flatten.
Outright Position
• (1) The trader believes that short term rates will rise and execute the
  following trade:
               Date           Futures Market
               5/16/2011      Sell one SEP 11 ED Futures at 99.685
               8/14/2011      Buy one SEP 11 ED Futures at 99.505
                              Profit=18 basis points
                              Total Gain=18 x 25 x 1 =450

• To profit from rising rates, the trader must be short IR futures. Accordingly
  the trader sells one SEP11 contracts at 99.30. Five days later IR have risen
  and the futures contract trades at 99.12.
• The trader gains 18 basis points. As each basis point is worth $25, the total
  profit is $450.
Spreads
• Intracommodity spread: Speculation on the changing shape of the IR
  curve. E.g. spread between a nearby and more distant futures contract.
• Intercommodity spread: Shifting risk from two different instruments:
  Libor-OIS spread.
• Today, a trader considers the following Libor rates and futures yields:
      Time to mty Libor Spot   Futures Contract      Ticker        Futures   Futures
                  Rates                                            Yield     Price
      3m          0.264        SEP 11 - 4.4 months   EDU1 comdty 0.32        99.68

      6m          0.27485      DEC 11 - 7.4 months   EDZ1 comdty   0.415     99.585

      9m          0.30915      MAR 12 - 10.4 months EDH2 comdty 0.575        99.425

      1y          0.35741

• The yield curve is upward sloping with a spread between 12 month and 3
  month showing 9 basis points.
• The futures yields are consistent with the forward rates implied from the
  Eurodollar curve.
Spread Curve Trade
• (2) The trader speculates that the curve will flatten within the next 6
  months and decides to execute the following trade:
             Date         Futures

             11-May-11    Buy the MAR12 ED contract at 99.425
                          Sell the DEC11 ED contract at 99.585
             30-Jul-11    Buy the DEC11 ED contract at 99.635
                          Sell the MAR12 ED contract at 99.525
             Profit=5 basis points
             Total Gain=$125
• By buying the more distant MAR12 contract and selling the DEC11
  contract today , the trader bets that the yield differential of 16 bps of will
  narrow.
• On July 30th, the yield spread diff. between MAR12 and DEC11 is 11 bps.
• No matter whether rates rise or falls, this spread strategy will produce a
  profit.
FRA/OIS Spread
• Speculating on changing risk structure of interest rates.
• E.g. risk of widespread default triggers widening of
  spread between OIS and Libor reflecting the changing
  perception of the risk involved in holding Eurodollar
  deposits in the face of potentially very large loan
  losses.
• Assume the spread between the 3 month IMM OIS and
  FRA is 17bps.
• The banks’ riskiness is perceived to increase, we might
  expect the spread to widen. (This would be the case
  whether interest rates are rising or falling).
• (3) To take advantage of this view, the trader could sell the SEP IMM FRA
  buy the SEP IMM OIS contract.

Date          Futures
Today         Sell $1mm SEP IMM 3MO FRA at a rate of 0.32%
              Buy $1mm SEP IMM OIS at a rate of 0.16%
August        Sell $1mm SEP IMM OIS at a rate of 0.17%
15th          Buy one SEP IMM 3MO FRA at a rate of 0.40%
Profit = 7 basis points
Total Gain = 7 x 25 = $175

• On August 15 the spread between the two contracts has widened by 16
  basis points, in line with the trader’s expectations which produces a profit
  of $400.
• The futures prices already embed the expectation of higher rates and
  spread between Eurodollar and OIS. Thus, by engaging into this
  strategy, the trader speculates AGAINST the rest of the market.
• It is not enough to expect yield spreads to widen, but the trader must
  expect them to widen MORE than the market EXPECTS.
Motivations and Applications
• Speculation on views on interest rates.
• Hedge against fluctuations in Interest Rates.
  1.   Convert fixed rate loans into floating rate loans.
  2.   Convert Floating rate loans into fixed rate loans.
  3.   Hedging using a stack of Eurodollar Contracts
  4.   Hedging using a strip of Eurodollar Contracts
Creating a Synthetic Fixed Rate Loan
• A construction firm plan a project that will take
  six months to complete. It is worth $100 million.
  The bank provides funds for 6 months at a single
  rate, that is 200 bps above the 90- day Libor.
• The rate for the second quarter is 200 bps above
  the 90 day Libor rate that prevails at that date.
• The company must pay interest at the end of 3
  month and interest plus principal at the end of
  the 6 month period.
Schedule
                             Cash Market                    Futures Market
June 20th, 2011              Borrow $100 m at 2.316%        Sell 100 Sept. Eurodollar
                             for three months from the      Futures Contracts at 99.66
                             bank who commit to extend      which corresponds to a
                             the loan for 3 additional      0.34% yield.
                             months at 200 bps above 3
                             month Libor.
September 20th, 2011         The company pays interest      Offset 100 Sept. contracts
                             of $591,886.67. The 3 Mo       at 99.06 reflecting a 0.84%
                             Libor is now at 0.84% so the   yield. The trade produces
                             company borrows for            a profit of $125,000.
                             another 3 months at 2.84%.     (50*25*100)
December 20th, 2011          Pay interest of $717,888.89    Futures Profit: $125,000.
                             and repay principal of
                             $100m. Total interest
                             expense $1,309,755.56
                  Net Interest Expense after Hedging: $1,184,755.56
Synthetic Floating Rate Loan
• The bank decides to let the company borrowing at a fixed
  rate.
• The bank’s cost of funds is 90 day Libor and expect to pay
  0.316% this quarter and 0.34% next quarter, so an average of
  0.328% over 6 months.
• Therefore the bank decides to make a fixed rate 6 month loan
  to the construction company at 2.328%.
• The bank’s expected profit is the 200 basis points between the
  lending rate and the bank’s Libor based cost of funds.
• If Libor rises by 50 bps to .% for the second quarter, the bank
  will have to pay an additional $125,000 in interest. To avoid
  that the bank will transact as follows:
Schedule
                            Cash Market                   Futures Market
June 20th, 2011             Borrow principal of $100m     Sell 100 September
                            at 0.316% and lend it for 6   Eurodollar contracts at
                            months at 2.316% to the       99.66 (.34% yield)
                            construction company.
September 20th, 2011        Pay Interest of $80,755.56    Offset the 100 Sept.
                            Libor is now at .84% so the   contracts at 99.16
                            bank borrows $100m @          reflecting the .84% yield. It
                            .84%.                         produces a profit of
                                                          $125,000.00
March 20th, 2011            Pay interest of $212,333.33
                            and repay principal of
                            $100m.
                            Total Expense=$293,088.89 Profit=$125,000
Net interest expense after hedging: $168,088.89
Multi-Period Funding
• In the previous example, the interest risk focuses on a single date. Often
  the period of the loans comes at a number of different dates at which the
  rate might be reset.
• The company makes a more realistic assessment of the completion date of
  the project: 1 year.
• The bank insists on making a floating rate loan for 3 months at a rate of
  200 basis points above the 90 day Libor rate prevailing at the time.
    –   3 month Libor:     0.316%
    –   SEP Eurodollar:    0.34%
    –   DEC Eurodollar:    0.416%
    –   MAR Eurodollar:    0.595%
• The cost of funds is then 2.316%, 2.34%, 2.416% and 2.595% or @100m @
  an average rate of 2.41675%.
• In a stack hedge, all of the futures contracts are concentrated or stacked in
  a single futures expiration date.
Scenario 1: Parallel Shift
• Shortly after the company enters the
  hedge, Libor rates jump by 50 basis points.
  The borrowing rate for the next 3 quarters are
  then:
  – September 11 – December 11 : 0.84%
  – December 11– March 12:       0.916%
  – March 12 – June 12:          1.095%
• Hedge $100 m with 300 September Eurodollar
  Futures contracts.
Eurodollar Stack Hedge
                       Cash Market                                     Futures Market

Jun 20th, 2011         Borrow $100 m at 2.316% for 3 months and        Sell 300 Dec Eurodollar futures contracts
                       commit to roll over the loan for 3 quarters     @ 99.66 which corresponds to a yield of
                       at 200 basis points over the prevailing Libor   0.34%.
                       rate.
Sep 20th, 2011         Co pays interest of $591,866.67. Libor is       Offset 300 Dec Eurodollar contracts @
                       now 0.84% so the co borrows $100m @             99.16 which reflects the yield of 0.84%.
                       2.84%.                                          The trade produces a profit of
                                                                       50*25*300=$375,000.


Dec 20th, 2011         Co pays interest of $717,888.89. and
                       borrows $100 m for 3 months @ 2.916%.
Mar 20th, 2012         Co pays interest of $737,100.00 and
                       borrows $100m for 3 months @ 3.095%.
June 20th, 2012        Co pays interest of $790,044.44 and repays
                       principal of $100m.
                       Total interest expense: @$2,837,800.00          Futures profit : $375,000

Total interest expense net of hedging: $2,462,800.00
Initial cost without 50 basis point increase: $2,457,029.17 (2.41675%*100m*366/360)
Scenario 2: Steepening Curve
•   Shortly after the company enters the hedge, Libor rates jump unevenly across the
    Libor curve. The borrowing rate for the next 3 quarters are then:
     – September 11 – December 11 :               0.43% (+9bps)
     – December 11– March 12:                     0.93% (+51bps)
     – March 12 – June 12:                        1.5% (+55 bps)
•   Hedge $100 m with 300 September Eurodollar Futures contracts.
•   With this changes the company will suffer an increase in borrowing costs as
    follows:
                           New rate       Days in        Cost for the period
                                          period
         June – September:        2.32%             92            591,866.67
         September-December:      2.43%             91            614,250.00
         December-March           2.93%             91            740,638.89
         March-June               3.50%             92            894,444.44
                                                                   $ 2,841,200.00
•   This change in rates produces an increase in costs of $348,171.00 from the initially
    expected level of $2,457,029.17 to $2,841,200.00
•   Here the DEC contract produces only a gain of which is equal to:
    0.09/0.005*12.5=$67,500. It isn’t sufficient to cover the increase in cost.
Interest Rate Curve Scenarios
1.60%


1.40%


1.20%


1.00%


                                                                                  expected cost of funding today
0.80%
                                                                                  Cost of funding (+50 bps parallel shift)
                                                                                  Cost of funding (steepening)
0.60%


0.40%


0.20%


0.00%
        today (June 20th 2011)   Sep 11-Dec 11   Dec 11-Mar 12   Mar 12-June 12
A Strip Hedge
• Unlike a stack hedge which concentrates the position on a single
  expiration date, a strip hedge uses an EQUAL number of contracts for each
  futures expiration over the hedging horizon.
• For a $100 mln financing requirements at risk for three quarters, the co
  sells 100 ED contracts each of the SEP, DEC and MAR futures instead of the
  300 contracts on SEP futures.
• With the hedge in place, each quarter of the coming year is hedged
  against shifts in IR for that quarter.
• (see next table) Timing of the futures hedge to that of the market risk
  exposure: The performance of the strip hedge results from the alignment
  of the futures market hedges with the actual risk exposure of the firm.
• Performance depends on the horizon and the liquidity of the most distant
  contracts.
Eurodollar Strip Hedge
                                     Cash Market                            Futures Market

Jun 20th, 2011                       Borrow $100 m at 2.316% for 3          Sell 100 for each of Sept, Dec and
                                     months and commit to roll over         Mar @ 99.66, 99.584, 99.405
                                     the loan for 3 quarters at 200 basis   respectively.
                                     points over the prevailing Libor
                                     rate.
Sep 20th, 2011                       Co pays interest of $591,866.67.       Offset 100 Sep contracts @ 99.57.
                                     Libor is now 0.43% so the co           Profit=$22,500.00
                                     borrows $100m @ 2.43%.
Dec 20th, 2011                       Co pays interest of $614,250.00        Offset 100 Dec contracts @ 99.07.
                                     and borrows $100 m for 3 months        Profit=$128,500.00
                                     @ 2.93%.
Mar 20th, 2012                       Co pays interest of $740,638.89        Offset 100 Mar contracts @ 98.5.
                                     and borrows $100m for 3 months         Profit=$226,250.00
                                     @ 3.5%.
June 20th, 2012                      Co pays interest of $894,444.44
                                     and repays principal of $100m.
                                     Total interest expense:                Total Profit = $377,250.00
                                     $2,841,200.00
Total interest expense net of hedging: $2,463,950.00
Arbitraging and Hedging Treasuries against Eurodollars.

TED SPREAD
Speculating with IR Futures
• Trading by holding an outright positions i.e. long
  or short or trading a spread
• The long trader bets that interest rate will fall so
  the price of the futures will rise
• The short trader bets that interest rate will rise so
  the price of the futures will fall.
• The spread trader bets that:
   – Interest rate curve will steepen or flatten.
   – The correlation between the ED futures rates and
     yield on Treasuries will change over time (TED).
G7 Macro Situation Today
       Events with Significant Impact
• Strong recovery of the global economy in 2010 to 1st
  quarter 2011 but outlook for growth tilted on the downside
  amid weaker consumer sentiment.
• Price risk is rising but expectations remain anchored to
  central banks’ objective of keeping inflation close to 2%.
• Expectations for higher policy rates from ECB & BOE.
• Severe stress in the bond markets reflecting the on-going
  sovereign crisis in the Euro-zone. Downgrades of Greece
  and Portugal.
• Large exposure of G7 banks to Greece, Ireland, Portugal
  and Spain.
• Geopolitical tensions and North African and the middle
  east.
-40
          -30
          -20
          -10
                                                                                                 -12
                                                                                                 -10
                                                                                                  -8
                                                                                                  -6
                                                                                                  -4
                                                                                                  -2




           10
           20
           30
           40




            0
                                                                                                   0
                                                                                                   2
                                                                                                   4
                                                                                                   8
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Mar-04                                                                                 Dec-98
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Nov-04
                                                                                       Apr-00
Mar-05
                                                                                       Dec-00
 Jul-05




                                         U.S.
                                                                                       Aug-01                                  U.S.
Nov-05
Mar-06                                                                                 Apr-02
 Jul-06                                                                                Dec-02
Nov-06                                                                                 Aug-03




                                         Eurozone
Mar-07
                                                                                       Apr-04
                                                                                                                               Eurozone




 Jul-07
                                                                                       Dec-04
Nov-07
                                                                                       Aug-05
Mar-08




                                         U.K.
 Jul-08                                                                                Apr-06
                                                                                                                               U.K.




Nov-08                                                                                 Dec-06
Mar-09                                                                                 Aug-07




                                         Japan
 Jul-09                                                                                Apr-08
                                                         Industrial Production YoY %
                                                                                                                               Japan




Nov-09
                                                                                       Dec-08
Mar-10
                                                                                       Aug-09
                                                                                                                                                   Real Output Growth YoY changes %




 Jul-10
Nov-10                                                                                 Apr-10
Mar-11                                                                                 Dec-10




          -60
                -40
                      -20
                                        40
                                                    60




                            0
                                20
                                                                                                     10
                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                               30
                                                                                                                    40
                                                                                                                         50
                                                                                                                              60
                                                                                                                                              70




                                                                                                 0




Dec-96
                                                                                       Mar-04
 Jul-97
Feb-98                                                                                 Aug-04
Sep-98                                                                                 Jan-05
Apr-99
                                                                                       Jun-05
                                     U.S.




Nov-99
Jun-00                                                                                 Nov-05
Jan-01
                                                                                       Apr-06
Aug-01
Mar-02                                                                                 Sep-06
Oct-02                                                                                 Feb-07
                                     Eurozone




May-03
Dec-03                                                                                  Jul-07
 Jul-04                                                                                Dec-07
Feb-05
                                                                                       May-08
                                     U.K.




Sep-05
                                                         Exports YoY %




Apr-06                                                                                 Oct-08
Nov-06
                                                                                       Mar-09
Jun-07
Jan-08                                                                                 Aug-09
                                     Japan
                                                                                                                              PMI Composite




Aug-08                                                                                 Jan-10
Mar-09
                                                                                                                                                   Global Purchasing Manager Index




                                                                                       Jun-10
Oct-09
May-10                                                                                 Nov-10
Dec-10
                                                                                       Apr-11
Inflation Rates YoY changes %                                                                                                                                                 Global Commodity Indices
                                           U.S.                      Eurozone                            U.K.                       Japan                                                                            Agriculture                         Metal                    Energy

 6                                                                                                                                                                                450
 5                                                                                                                                                                                400
 4                                                                                                                                                                                350
 3                                                                                                                                                                                300
 2                                                                                                                                                                                250
 1                                                                                                                                                                                200
 0                                                                                                                                                                                150
-1                                                                                                                                                                                100
-2                                                                                                                                                                                 50
-3                                                                                                                                                                                  0




                                                                                                                                                                                                          May-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                May-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May-11
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-11
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              Aug-99
                       Apr-00


                                         Aug-01
                                                  Apr-02


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                                                                                                Aug-05
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     Dec-98




                                Dec-00




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                                                                                                                  Dec-06




                                                                                                                                             Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                         Dec-10
                                                  Public Debt / GDP %                                                                                                                                              Budget Deficit (-) %
160                                                                                                                                                                               10
140                                                                                                                                                       Greece, 144              5
120                                                                                                                                                                                0
                                                                                                                                                               Italy, 118.1                                                                                                                                  Italy, -4.6
                                                                                                                                                                                   -5
100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Spain, -9.2
                                                                                                                                                       Ireland, 94.2              -10
 80                                                                                                                                                   Portugal, 83.2                                                                                                                                Portugal, -9.1
                                                                                                                                                                                  -15                                                                                                               Greece, -10.5
 60                                                                                                                                                            Spain, 63.4
                                                                                                                                                                                  -20
 40                                                                                                                                                                               -25
 20                                                                                                                                                                               -30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Ireland, -32.4
     0                                                                                                                                                                            -35
               2003                 2004                   2005               2006                2007                 2008                  2009               2010                    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Tensions in the Government Bond
                                Markets
                        Government Bond Spreads in 2010 and 2011
                 1400



                 1200                                              Greece, 1209.4


                 1000
Spreads in bps




                 800
                                                                    Ireland, 709.7
                 600
                                                                   Portugal, 547.6

                 400



                 200                                                 Spain, 193.1
                                                                      Italy, 121.7
                    0
Deterioration in perceived debt
           sustainability of “PIGS”
                Five Year CDS spreads
1600


1400
                                                  greece cds usd sr
1200                                                5y, 1248.397


1000


 800                                     portug cds usd sr 5y, 606.5


 600


 400


 200                                    spain cds usd sr 5y, 232.248


   0
Banks Exposure to “PIGS”
                       End of Q3 2010; in billion of US dollars – Source BIS
                                     Germany    France        Italy     Other Euro Area    UK         Japan   U.S.    R.O.W




     Total exposure $2.512 trillion                                                                              Germany, 685.6
                                                                                                                      France, 632.5
                                                         UK, 609.3
                                     Germany, 570.7
                                                                                                                                  523.7



                                                                                                                                      UK, 421.2
                                                                                                                                              U.S., 426.7


                                                                      287.5
  France, 247.3
                                                        193                   Germany, 137.1
Germany, 179.2
                                         France, 200.8                   151.7
                                                                                   France, 128.5
                                                                                                                              112.3                111.5
             97.3             93.2                                                               UK, 92.8 98.7                              82.8
                  UK, 55.8                       64.1            66                            63.8
          17.7                   26.1                                                     20.5                 15.7
                        5.9                                                                               8



           Greece                                  Ireland                                Portugal                                Spain
Counterparty Risk
                         3 Month Libor OIS Spreads
                 50

                 45

                 40

                 35
                                                         OIS GBP, 27.94
Spreads in bps




                 30
                                                     OIS EUR, 26
                 25

                 20

                 15
                                                     OIS USD, 15.95
                 10

                 5

                 0
AXE
• Less accommodative monetary policy resulting in
  an increase in interbank rates.
• Growing concerns about PIGS’ sustainability of
  public finances and fiscal outlook. Talks amongst
  EU leaders about debt restructuring for Greece.
• Large exposure of banks to “PIGS”.
• Flight to safety resulting in a decrease in AAA
  rated government bond yields.
  – > BUY TREASURY, SELL EURODOLLARS/EURO FUTURES
TED Spread
 Speculative trades on TED are executed in anticipation of a change in the
 spread between Treasury and Eurodollar deposits based on the assumption
 that the correlation between returns of the two instruments will change
 overtime.
• Long position in TSY and a short position in a strip of euro-dollar contracts
  with similar maturity.
• Position is established when the spread is narrow. The spread between
  the two yields is constantly changing as it is affected by the turmoil or
  uncertainty in the international markets and banks’ overall liquidity
  position.
• A manager takes a position on the on-the-run 2 year TSY when the spread
  is at 16 basis points.
• The manager anticipates that the spread will widen to 26 basis points
  allowing him to exit the trade at a profit…(see next slide)
Trade Example                                                                        Bond position
                                                                        5/12/2011                 6/13/2011
                                                          Principal : 100,142,000.00              99,953,125
 Position Established on 5/12/2011 (T+1)
                                                          Accrued:       22,078.80                76,426.63
 Bought 100mm of 0 5/8 13@100.142 (YTM 0.552%)            Total:        100,164,078               100,029,551.63
 Sold 2 year Eurodollar bundle i.e. first 8 quarterly CME Profit (Loss): ($134,526.37)
 Eurodollar contracts.
                                                                                     Futures Strip Position:
              Last Price Rate     # Contracts
                                                                        Profit: 803*20*25=$401,500
  Front Stub    99.80097    0.19903125                36
  EDM1 Comdty     99.735          0.265              101
  EDU1 Comdty       99.69          0.31              101                                     Total Gain: $266,973.63
  EDZ1 Comdty     99.595          0.405              101
  EDH2 Comdty     99.455          0.545              101
                                                                                    Margin per Contract ($650)
  EDM2 Comdty       99.22          0.78              101
  EDU2 Comdty     98.925          1.075              100    Capital employed (803 contracts x $650 – 0% haircut)=$521,950
  EDZ2 Comdty     98.615          1.385               99
  EDH3 Comdty       98.34          1.66               99    Total Return on Capital for 32 days: 51.15%

 Position reviewed on 6/13/2011
 Sell 100mm of 0 5/8 13 @ 99.951 (YTM 0.651% up 10 bps)
 Buy 2 year Eurodollar bundle at following prices (implying
 a 20 basis point increase in rates):
                                                         # Contracts:
                  Price     Rate            P&L
  Front Stub     99.60097 0.399031           0
  EDM1 Comdty      99.535     0.465          50500         Face value x (days in contract/360) x discount factor strip
  EDU1 Comdty        99.49     0.51          50500         --------------------------------------------------------------------------
  EDZ1 Comdty      99.395     0.605          50500                                Risk of ED Futures x 10,000
  EDH2 Comdty      99.255     0.745          50500
  EDM2 Comdty        99.02     0.98          50500
  EDU2 Comdty      98.725     1.275          50000         The rate used in calculating the discount factor is the ED rate.
  EDZ2 Comdty      98.415     1.585          49500         (the TED spread can be subtracted from it).
  EDH3 Comdty        98.14     1.86          49500
                                          $401,500
Futures Table
Eurodollar Contract Table
  Period        Ticker     Last Price      Rate         Exp. Month   Exp. Date      Deposit      Deposit   No. days in
                                                                                  Period Start Period ends   period
     1      Front Stub*        99.8024        0.1976                  5/12/2011      5/16/2011   6/15/2011     30
     2      EDM1 Comdty        99.7350        0.2650      May-11      6/15/2011      6/17/2011   9/16/2011     91
     3      EDU1 Comdty        99.6900        0.3100      Jun-11      9/21/2011      9/23/2011 12/23/2011      91
     4      EDZ1 Comdty        99.6000        0.4000      Jul-11     12/21/2011    12/23/2011    3/23/2012     91
     5      EDH2 Comdty        99.4550        0.5450      Aug-11      3/21/2012      3/23/2012   6/22/2012     91
     6      EDM2 Comdty        99.2200        0.7800      Sep-11      6/20/2012      6/22/2012   9/21/2012     91
     7      EDU2 Comdty        98.9300        1.0700      Oct-11      9/19/2012      9/21/2012 12/21/2012      91
     8      EDZ2 Comdty        98.6300        1.3700      Dec-11     12/19/2012    12/21/2012    3/21/2013     90
     9      EDH3 Comdty        98.3600        1.6400      Mar-12      3/20/2013      3/22/2013   6/21/2013     91
    10      EDM3 Comdty        98.0950        1.9050      Jun-12      6/19/2013      6/21/2013   9/20/2013     91
    11      EDU3 Comdty        97.8450        2.1550      Sep-12      9/18/2013      9/20/2013 12/20/2013      91


* Libor Rates
Libor            Tenor    Periodicity    Expiration    Rate
US0002W index       2           W         5/30/2011    0.17975
US0001M index       1           M         6/16/2011    0.19875
US0002M index       2           M         7/18/2011    0.232
How is the TED spread
calculated? 3 methods.
1. Implied Yield:
The stub Libor and ED rates are used
to find the par coupon of a swap
whose cash flows correspond to that
of the treasury note. The TSY yield is
subtracted from this par coupon to
produced the spread.


2. Spread
It represents the bps that must be
subtracted from the stub Libor and         1 – Implied Yield TED: Par Coupon on a
Eurodollar futures contract rates to set   swap: Not tradable
the PV of the TSY notes cash flows to      2 – Spread: Subtracting basis points
its full market price (dirty). Act/360
money market basis points.                 from Futures
                                           3 – Implied Price: PV of cash flows
3. Implied Price.                          (best).
Method used in the next slide. The TSY
notes cash flows are discounted at the
stub Libor and Eurodollar futures
rates. The implied yield resulting from
the PV is subtracted from the TSY
notes yield (S/A bond equivalent basis
points).
Calculate the TED spread                               Step 1 – Match the cash flows of the treasury note with the Eurodollar deposit periods.
                                                         Step 2 – Find the interpolated Eurodollar discount function.
  On-the-run Treasury 2 year note
                                                              Df 9/16/2011 = [1+0.00197632*30/360]-1
  Coupon           0.625                 percent
  Maturity         4/30/2013                                                           *[1+0.00265*91/360]-1
  Settlement       5/16/2011                                                           =0.99166031
  Accrued Interest 0.0220788             percent
  Clean Price      100.1523438                                Df 12/23/2011 = [1+0.00197632*30/360]-1
  Full price       100.1744226                                                          *[1+0.00265*91/360]-1
  Yield            0.5465946             percent                                        *[1+0.0031*91/360] -1
  Face Amount      $1,000,000.00
                                                                                        *[1+0.004*91/360]-1
Cash Flows                                                                              =0.998383686
                                                   Present    We interpolate the discount factors for 10/31/2011,the payment date of the note.
    Date         Interest Principal      Df         Value     Rather than using the actual values, we use the natural log of these values (which
10/31/2011       3125         0     0.9987791 3121.19         flattens or smoothen the curvature of the ED forward curve).
4/30/2012        3125         0     0.9967968 3114.99
10/31/2012       3125         0     0.9928456 3102.64
                                                              LN(Df9/16/2011)=LN(0.99166031)=-0.00083
4/30/2013        3125     1000000 0.9861227 989204.3
                                        Total PV= 998,543.1   LN(Df12/23/2011)=LN(0.998383686)=-0.00162


   Dirty Price       99.85431                                 As 10/31/2011 is 45 days into the Sep – Dec 11 period, the discount factor should
                                                              reflect 45/91 day change for the period.
   Clean px          99.83223
                                                              Df 10/31/2011=-0.00083+(45/91)*(-0.00162-(-0.00083)=-0.00122
   Yield             0.711475
                                                              Using e ln(x) =x, where e is the base of the natural logarithm, we have e-
                                                              0.00122=0.998779081
   TED               16.48806 (0.711475-0.5465946)


                                                              The discount factors for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th terms are solved similarly. All the values
                                                              are show in the cash flow table.
Appendix:


            How to create an ED strip
• The first step is to construct a forward strip that begins with the soonest-
  to-expire, front futures.
• It ends with the contract whose deposit contains the maturity of the
  contiguous swap.
• A cash libor deposit that spans the period from settlement to the front
  contract’s expiration is added to the front of the strip: The ‘front stub’.
• The resulting structure is a synthetic, long term, Libor quality deposit that
  begins at settlement and terminates at the end of the final contract’s
  deposit period.
• The rates in the chain determine the future value to which a present value
  would grow if invested during the sequence of deposits that makes up the
  strip.
• In other words, the chain also determines the PV of a future payment
  occurring at the final maturity of the strip.
Appendix:
Pricing a Eurodollar Strip
    PV FV * [ 1 r /( t / 360)] 1
    A eurodollar strip is composedof n depositperiods - each with a uniqueinterest rate (ri )
    and term (ni ). So, we can write : PVi FVi * [ 1 ri ( t i / 360)] 1 ; PVi present value
    at the start of the ith depositperiod.
    FVi future value at the end of the ith deposit;ri interest rate for the ith depositperiod
    i number of the depositperiod, i 1,2,3...,n
   Solving for the PV of a sequenceof investments starting from n to n-1 :
   The strip is a sequenceof investments : The proceeds at the terminatio n of one
   depositare fully and immediatel y reinvested in the next depositperiod as a sequence.
   So, the present value for a given period is the future value of the preceding period.
   FVi   1    PVi . Applying this equation to, say, the third depositperiod :
                                            1
   PV3       FV3 * [ 1 r3 * ( t 3 / 360)]
   to find the present value of this deposit,we must discountit over the secondperiod :
                                            1
   PV2       FV2 * [ 1 r2 * ( t 2 / 360)]
                                            1
   PV2       PV3 * [ 1 r2 * ( t 2 / 360)]
   or PV2      FV3 * [ 1 r3 * ( t 3 / 360)] 1 * [ 1 r2 * ( t 2 / 360)]   1
Solving for the PV of a sequence of investments from n to today and
Discount Function

We arrive at the present value of the cash flow at the sart of the
depositperiod - that is, today - by discountin it over the firstperiod,
                                              g
                                       1
PV1     FV3 * [ 1 r3 * ( t 3 / 360)]
                                   1
      * [ 1 r2 * ( t 2 / 360)]
                                   1
      * [ 1 r1 * ( t 3 / 360)]
The quantity [ 1 ri * ( t i / 360)] 1 is the discountfactor, dfi , for period i
over any depositperiods n over which FVn is discounted. The discountfactor
determines , in present value - at the start of period, i of a sumpaid at the end of period i .
                               1
di    [ 1 ri * ( t i / 360)]

We can then express the PV as :
PV FVn * ( df1 * df2 * df3 ... * dfn )
The right most term between the parentheses is the productof the n discountfactors
that composethe strip.It is called the discountfunctionand is written as :
DFn ( df1 * df2 * df3 ... * dfn )
where dfi discountfactor for period i
DFn     discountfunctioncomposedof the productof the n - period discountfactors.
It gives PV FV * DFn .

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Eurodollar Futures and TED Spread Trading Workshop

  • 1. Eurodollar Futures and TED spread Trading Training Workshop François Choquet Advanced Application Specialist July 2011
  • 2. Motivations and Applications • Speculation on views on interest rates. • Hedge against fluctuations in Interest Rates. 1. Convert fixed rate loans into floating rate loans. 2. Convert Floating rate loans into fixed rate loans. 3. Hedging using a stack of Eurodollar Contracts 4. Hedging using a strip of Eurodollar Contracts
  • 3. Motivations and Applications • Speculation on views on interest rates. • Hedge against fluctuations in Interest Rates. 1. Convert fixed rate loans into floating rate loans. 2. Convert Floating rate loans into fixed rate loans. 3. Hedging using a stack of Eurodollar Contracts 4. Hedging using a strip of Eurodollar Contracts
  • 4. Speculating with IR Futures • Trading by holding an outright positions i.e. long or short or trading a spread • The long trader bets that interest rate will fall so the price of the futures will rise • The short trader bets that interest rate will rise so the price of the futures will fall. • The spread trader bets that interest rate curve will steepen or flatten.
  • 5. Outright Position • (1) The trader believes that short term rates will rise and execute the following trade: Date Futures Market 5/16/2011 Sell one SEP 11 ED Futures at 99.685 8/14/2011 Buy one SEP 11 ED Futures at 99.505 Profit=18 basis points Total Gain=18 x 25 x 1 =450 • To profit from rising rates, the trader must be short IR futures. Accordingly the trader sells one SEP11 contracts at 99.30. Five days later IR have risen and the futures contract trades at 99.12. • The trader gains 18 basis points. As each basis point is worth $25, the total profit is $450.
  • 6. Spreads • Intracommodity spread: Speculation on the changing shape of the IR curve. E.g. spread between a nearby and more distant futures contract. • Intercommodity spread: Shifting risk from two different instruments: Libor-OIS spread. • Today, a trader considers the following Libor rates and futures yields: Time to mty Libor Spot Futures Contract Ticker Futures Futures Rates Yield Price 3m 0.264 SEP 11 - 4.4 months EDU1 comdty 0.32 99.68 6m 0.27485 DEC 11 - 7.4 months EDZ1 comdty 0.415 99.585 9m 0.30915 MAR 12 - 10.4 months EDH2 comdty 0.575 99.425 1y 0.35741 • The yield curve is upward sloping with a spread between 12 month and 3 month showing 9 basis points. • The futures yields are consistent with the forward rates implied from the Eurodollar curve.
  • 7. Spread Curve Trade • (2) The trader speculates that the curve will flatten within the next 6 months and decides to execute the following trade: Date Futures 11-May-11 Buy the MAR12 ED contract at 99.425 Sell the DEC11 ED contract at 99.585 30-Jul-11 Buy the DEC11 ED contract at 99.635 Sell the MAR12 ED contract at 99.525 Profit=5 basis points Total Gain=$125 • By buying the more distant MAR12 contract and selling the DEC11 contract today , the trader bets that the yield differential of 16 bps of will narrow. • On July 30th, the yield spread diff. between MAR12 and DEC11 is 11 bps. • No matter whether rates rise or falls, this spread strategy will produce a profit.
  • 8. FRA/OIS Spread • Speculating on changing risk structure of interest rates. • E.g. risk of widespread default triggers widening of spread between OIS and Libor reflecting the changing perception of the risk involved in holding Eurodollar deposits in the face of potentially very large loan losses. • Assume the spread between the 3 month IMM OIS and FRA is 17bps. • The banks’ riskiness is perceived to increase, we might expect the spread to widen. (This would be the case whether interest rates are rising or falling).
  • 9. • (3) To take advantage of this view, the trader could sell the SEP IMM FRA buy the SEP IMM OIS contract. Date Futures Today Sell $1mm SEP IMM 3MO FRA at a rate of 0.32% Buy $1mm SEP IMM OIS at a rate of 0.16% August Sell $1mm SEP IMM OIS at a rate of 0.17% 15th Buy one SEP IMM 3MO FRA at a rate of 0.40% Profit = 7 basis points Total Gain = 7 x 25 = $175 • On August 15 the spread between the two contracts has widened by 16 basis points, in line with the trader’s expectations which produces a profit of $400. • The futures prices already embed the expectation of higher rates and spread between Eurodollar and OIS. Thus, by engaging into this strategy, the trader speculates AGAINST the rest of the market. • It is not enough to expect yield spreads to widen, but the trader must expect them to widen MORE than the market EXPECTS.
  • 10. Motivations and Applications • Speculation on views on interest rates. • Hedge against fluctuations in Interest Rates. 1. Convert fixed rate loans into floating rate loans. 2. Convert Floating rate loans into fixed rate loans. 3. Hedging using a stack of Eurodollar Contracts 4. Hedging using a strip of Eurodollar Contracts
  • 11. Creating a Synthetic Fixed Rate Loan • A construction firm plan a project that will take six months to complete. It is worth $100 million. The bank provides funds for 6 months at a single rate, that is 200 bps above the 90- day Libor. • The rate for the second quarter is 200 bps above the 90 day Libor rate that prevails at that date. • The company must pay interest at the end of 3 month and interest plus principal at the end of the 6 month period.
  • 12. Schedule Cash Market Futures Market June 20th, 2011 Borrow $100 m at 2.316% Sell 100 Sept. Eurodollar for three months from the Futures Contracts at 99.66 bank who commit to extend which corresponds to a the loan for 3 additional 0.34% yield. months at 200 bps above 3 month Libor. September 20th, 2011 The company pays interest Offset 100 Sept. contracts of $591,886.67. The 3 Mo at 99.06 reflecting a 0.84% Libor is now at 0.84% so the yield. The trade produces company borrows for a profit of $125,000. another 3 months at 2.84%. (50*25*100) December 20th, 2011 Pay interest of $717,888.89 Futures Profit: $125,000. and repay principal of $100m. Total interest expense $1,309,755.56 Net Interest Expense after Hedging: $1,184,755.56
  • 13. Synthetic Floating Rate Loan • The bank decides to let the company borrowing at a fixed rate. • The bank’s cost of funds is 90 day Libor and expect to pay 0.316% this quarter and 0.34% next quarter, so an average of 0.328% over 6 months. • Therefore the bank decides to make a fixed rate 6 month loan to the construction company at 2.328%. • The bank’s expected profit is the 200 basis points between the lending rate and the bank’s Libor based cost of funds. • If Libor rises by 50 bps to .% for the second quarter, the bank will have to pay an additional $125,000 in interest. To avoid that the bank will transact as follows:
  • 14. Schedule Cash Market Futures Market June 20th, 2011 Borrow principal of $100m Sell 100 September at 0.316% and lend it for 6 Eurodollar contracts at months at 2.316% to the 99.66 (.34% yield) construction company. September 20th, 2011 Pay Interest of $80,755.56 Offset the 100 Sept. Libor is now at .84% so the contracts at 99.16 bank borrows $100m @ reflecting the .84% yield. It .84%. produces a profit of $125,000.00 March 20th, 2011 Pay interest of $212,333.33 and repay principal of $100m. Total Expense=$293,088.89 Profit=$125,000 Net interest expense after hedging: $168,088.89
  • 15. Multi-Period Funding • In the previous example, the interest risk focuses on a single date. Often the period of the loans comes at a number of different dates at which the rate might be reset. • The company makes a more realistic assessment of the completion date of the project: 1 year. • The bank insists on making a floating rate loan for 3 months at a rate of 200 basis points above the 90 day Libor rate prevailing at the time. – 3 month Libor: 0.316% – SEP Eurodollar: 0.34% – DEC Eurodollar: 0.416% – MAR Eurodollar: 0.595% • The cost of funds is then 2.316%, 2.34%, 2.416% and 2.595% or @100m @ an average rate of 2.41675%. • In a stack hedge, all of the futures contracts are concentrated or stacked in a single futures expiration date.
  • 16. Scenario 1: Parallel Shift • Shortly after the company enters the hedge, Libor rates jump by 50 basis points. The borrowing rate for the next 3 quarters are then: – September 11 – December 11 : 0.84% – December 11– March 12: 0.916% – March 12 – June 12: 1.095% • Hedge $100 m with 300 September Eurodollar Futures contracts.
  • 17. Eurodollar Stack Hedge Cash Market Futures Market Jun 20th, 2011 Borrow $100 m at 2.316% for 3 months and Sell 300 Dec Eurodollar futures contracts commit to roll over the loan for 3 quarters @ 99.66 which corresponds to a yield of at 200 basis points over the prevailing Libor 0.34%. rate. Sep 20th, 2011 Co pays interest of $591,866.67. Libor is Offset 300 Dec Eurodollar contracts @ now 0.84% so the co borrows $100m @ 99.16 which reflects the yield of 0.84%. 2.84%. The trade produces a profit of 50*25*300=$375,000. Dec 20th, 2011 Co pays interest of $717,888.89. and borrows $100 m for 3 months @ 2.916%. Mar 20th, 2012 Co pays interest of $737,100.00 and borrows $100m for 3 months @ 3.095%. June 20th, 2012 Co pays interest of $790,044.44 and repays principal of $100m. Total interest expense: @$2,837,800.00 Futures profit : $375,000 Total interest expense net of hedging: $2,462,800.00 Initial cost without 50 basis point increase: $2,457,029.17 (2.41675%*100m*366/360)
  • 18. Scenario 2: Steepening Curve • Shortly after the company enters the hedge, Libor rates jump unevenly across the Libor curve. The borrowing rate for the next 3 quarters are then: – September 11 – December 11 : 0.43% (+9bps) – December 11– March 12: 0.93% (+51bps) – March 12 – June 12: 1.5% (+55 bps) • Hedge $100 m with 300 September Eurodollar Futures contracts. • With this changes the company will suffer an increase in borrowing costs as follows: New rate Days in Cost for the period period June – September: 2.32% 92 591,866.67 September-December: 2.43% 91 614,250.00 December-March 2.93% 91 740,638.89 March-June 3.50% 92 894,444.44 $ 2,841,200.00 • This change in rates produces an increase in costs of $348,171.00 from the initially expected level of $2,457,029.17 to $2,841,200.00 • Here the DEC contract produces only a gain of which is equal to: 0.09/0.005*12.5=$67,500. It isn’t sufficient to cover the increase in cost.
  • 19. Interest Rate Curve Scenarios 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% expected cost of funding today 0.80% Cost of funding (+50 bps parallel shift) Cost of funding (steepening) 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% today (June 20th 2011) Sep 11-Dec 11 Dec 11-Mar 12 Mar 12-June 12
  • 20. A Strip Hedge • Unlike a stack hedge which concentrates the position on a single expiration date, a strip hedge uses an EQUAL number of contracts for each futures expiration over the hedging horizon. • For a $100 mln financing requirements at risk for three quarters, the co sells 100 ED contracts each of the SEP, DEC and MAR futures instead of the 300 contracts on SEP futures. • With the hedge in place, each quarter of the coming year is hedged against shifts in IR for that quarter. • (see next table) Timing of the futures hedge to that of the market risk exposure: The performance of the strip hedge results from the alignment of the futures market hedges with the actual risk exposure of the firm. • Performance depends on the horizon and the liquidity of the most distant contracts.
  • 21. Eurodollar Strip Hedge Cash Market Futures Market Jun 20th, 2011 Borrow $100 m at 2.316% for 3 Sell 100 for each of Sept, Dec and months and commit to roll over Mar @ 99.66, 99.584, 99.405 the loan for 3 quarters at 200 basis respectively. points over the prevailing Libor rate. Sep 20th, 2011 Co pays interest of $591,866.67. Offset 100 Sep contracts @ 99.57. Libor is now 0.43% so the co Profit=$22,500.00 borrows $100m @ 2.43%. Dec 20th, 2011 Co pays interest of $614,250.00 Offset 100 Dec contracts @ 99.07. and borrows $100 m for 3 months Profit=$128,500.00 @ 2.93%. Mar 20th, 2012 Co pays interest of $740,638.89 Offset 100 Mar contracts @ 98.5. and borrows $100m for 3 months Profit=$226,250.00 @ 3.5%. June 20th, 2012 Co pays interest of $894,444.44 and repays principal of $100m. Total interest expense: Total Profit = $377,250.00 $2,841,200.00 Total interest expense net of hedging: $2,463,950.00
  • 22. Arbitraging and Hedging Treasuries against Eurodollars. TED SPREAD
  • 23. Speculating with IR Futures • Trading by holding an outright positions i.e. long or short or trading a spread • The long trader bets that interest rate will fall so the price of the futures will rise • The short trader bets that interest rate will rise so the price of the futures will fall. • The spread trader bets that: – Interest rate curve will steepen or flatten. – The correlation between the ED futures rates and yield on Treasuries will change over time (TED).
  • 24. G7 Macro Situation Today Events with Significant Impact • Strong recovery of the global economy in 2010 to 1st quarter 2011 but outlook for growth tilted on the downside amid weaker consumer sentiment. • Price risk is rising but expectations remain anchored to central banks’ objective of keeping inflation close to 2%. • Expectations for higher policy rates from ECB & BOE. • Severe stress in the bond markets reflecting the on-going sovereign crisis in the Euro-zone. Downgrades of Greece and Portugal. • Large exposure of G7 banks to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. • Geopolitical tensions and North African and the middle east.
  • 25. -40 -30 -20 -10 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 10 20 30 40 0 0 2 4 8 6 Mar-04 Dec-98 Jul-04 Aug-99 Nov-04 Apr-00 Mar-05 Dec-00 Jul-05 U.S. Aug-01 U.S. Nov-05 Mar-06 Apr-02 Jul-06 Dec-02 Nov-06 Aug-03 Eurozone Mar-07 Apr-04 Eurozone Jul-07 Dec-04 Nov-07 Aug-05 Mar-08 U.K. Jul-08 Apr-06 U.K. Nov-08 Dec-06 Mar-09 Aug-07 Japan Jul-09 Apr-08 Industrial Production YoY % Japan Nov-09 Dec-08 Mar-10 Aug-09 Real Output Growth YoY changes % Jul-10 Nov-10 Apr-10 Mar-11 Dec-10 -60 -40 -20 40 60 0 20 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 Dec-96 Mar-04 Jul-97 Feb-98 Aug-04 Sep-98 Jan-05 Apr-99 Jun-05 U.S. Nov-99 Jun-00 Nov-05 Jan-01 Apr-06 Aug-01 Mar-02 Sep-06 Oct-02 Feb-07 Eurozone May-03 Dec-03 Jul-07 Jul-04 Dec-07 Feb-05 May-08 U.K. Sep-05 Exports YoY % Apr-06 Oct-08 Nov-06 Mar-09 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-09 Japan PMI Composite Aug-08 Jan-10 Mar-09 Global Purchasing Manager Index Jun-10 Oct-09 May-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Apr-11
  • 26. Inflation Rates YoY changes % Global Commodity Indices U.S. Eurozone U.K. Japan Agriculture Metal Energy 6 450 5 400 4 350 3 300 2 250 1 200 0 150 -1 100 -2 50 -3 0 May-09 May-10 May-11 Nov-09 Nov-10 Jul-09 Sep-09 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-09 Mar-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Aug-99 Apr-00 Aug-01 Apr-02 Aug-03 Apr-04 Aug-05 Apr-06 Aug-07 Apr-08 Aug-09 Apr-10 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Public Debt / GDP % Budget Deficit (-) % 160 10 140 Greece, 144 5 120 0 Italy, 118.1 Italy, -4.6 -5 100 Spain, -9.2 Ireland, 94.2 -10 80 Portugal, 83.2 Portugal, -9.1 -15 Greece, -10.5 60 Spain, 63.4 -20 40 -25 20 -30 Ireland, -32.4 0 -35 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  • 27. Tensions in the Government Bond Markets Government Bond Spreads in 2010 and 2011 1400 1200 Greece, 1209.4 1000 Spreads in bps 800 Ireland, 709.7 600 Portugal, 547.6 400 200 Spain, 193.1 Italy, 121.7 0
  • 28. Deterioration in perceived debt sustainability of “PIGS” Five Year CDS spreads 1600 1400 greece cds usd sr 1200 5y, 1248.397 1000 800 portug cds usd sr 5y, 606.5 600 400 200 spain cds usd sr 5y, 232.248 0
  • 29. Banks Exposure to “PIGS” End of Q3 2010; in billion of US dollars – Source BIS Germany France Italy Other Euro Area UK Japan U.S. R.O.W Total exposure $2.512 trillion Germany, 685.6 France, 632.5 UK, 609.3 Germany, 570.7 523.7 UK, 421.2 U.S., 426.7 287.5 France, 247.3 193 Germany, 137.1 Germany, 179.2 France, 200.8 151.7 France, 128.5 112.3 111.5 97.3 93.2 UK, 92.8 98.7 82.8 UK, 55.8 64.1 66 63.8 17.7 26.1 20.5 15.7 5.9 8 Greece Ireland Portugal Spain
  • 30. Counterparty Risk 3 Month Libor OIS Spreads 50 45 40 35 OIS GBP, 27.94 Spreads in bps 30 OIS EUR, 26 25 20 15 OIS USD, 15.95 10 5 0
  • 31. AXE • Less accommodative monetary policy resulting in an increase in interbank rates. • Growing concerns about PIGS’ sustainability of public finances and fiscal outlook. Talks amongst EU leaders about debt restructuring for Greece. • Large exposure of banks to “PIGS”. • Flight to safety resulting in a decrease in AAA rated government bond yields. – > BUY TREASURY, SELL EURODOLLARS/EURO FUTURES
  • 32. TED Spread Speculative trades on TED are executed in anticipation of a change in the spread between Treasury and Eurodollar deposits based on the assumption that the correlation between returns of the two instruments will change overtime. • Long position in TSY and a short position in a strip of euro-dollar contracts with similar maturity. • Position is established when the spread is narrow. The spread between the two yields is constantly changing as it is affected by the turmoil or uncertainty in the international markets and banks’ overall liquidity position. • A manager takes a position on the on-the-run 2 year TSY when the spread is at 16 basis points. • The manager anticipates that the spread will widen to 26 basis points allowing him to exit the trade at a profit…(see next slide)
  • 33. Trade Example Bond position 5/12/2011 6/13/2011 Principal : 100,142,000.00 99,953,125 Position Established on 5/12/2011 (T+1) Accrued: 22,078.80 76,426.63 Bought 100mm of 0 5/8 13@100.142 (YTM 0.552%) Total: 100,164,078 100,029,551.63 Sold 2 year Eurodollar bundle i.e. first 8 quarterly CME Profit (Loss): ($134,526.37) Eurodollar contracts. Futures Strip Position: Last Price Rate # Contracts Profit: 803*20*25=$401,500 Front Stub 99.80097 0.19903125 36 EDM1 Comdty 99.735 0.265 101 EDU1 Comdty 99.69 0.31 101 Total Gain: $266,973.63 EDZ1 Comdty 99.595 0.405 101 EDH2 Comdty 99.455 0.545 101 Margin per Contract ($650) EDM2 Comdty 99.22 0.78 101 EDU2 Comdty 98.925 1.075 100 Capital employed (803 contracts x $650 – 0% haircut)=$521,950 EDZ2 Comdty 98.615 1.385 99 EDH3 Comdty 98.34 1.66 99 Total Return on Capital for 32 days: 51.15% Position reviewed on 6/13/2011 Sell 100mm of 0 5/8 13 @ 99.951 (YTM 0.651% up 10 bps) Buy 2 year Eurodollar bundle at following prices (implying a 20 basis point increase in rates): # Contracts: Price Rate P&L Front Stub 99.60097 0.399031 0 EDM1 Comdty 99.535 0.465 50500 Face value x (days in contract/360) x discount factor strip EDU1 Comdty 99.49 0.51 50500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDZ1 Comdty 99.395 0.605 50500 Risk of ED Futures x 10,000 EDH2 Comdty 99.255 0.745 50500 EDM2 Comdty 99.02 0.98 50500 EDU2 Comdty 98.725 1.275 50000 The rate used in calculating the discount factor is the ED rate. EDZ2 Comdty 98.415 1.585 49500 (the TED spread can be subtracted from it). EDH3 Comdty 98.14 1.86 49500 $401,500
  • 34. Futures Table Eurodollar Contract Table Period Ticker Last Price Rate Exp. Month Exp. Date Deposit Deposit No. days in Period Start Period ends period 1 Front Stub* 99.8024 0.1976 5/12/2011 5/16/2011 6/15/2011 30 2 EDM1 Comdty 99.7350 0.2650 May-11 6/15/2011 6/17/2011 9/16/2011 91 3 EDU1 Comdty 99.6900 0.3100 Jun-11 9/21/2011 9/23/2011 12/23/2011 91 4 EDZ1 Comdty 99.6000 0.4000 Jul-11 12/21/2011 12/23/2011 3/23/2012 91 5 EDH2 Comdty 99.4550 0.5450 Aug-11 3/21/2012 3/23/2012 6/22/2012 91 6 EDM2 Comdty 99.2200 0.7800 Sep-11 6/20/2012 6/22/2012 9/21/2012 91 7 EDU2 Comdty 98.9300 1.0700 Oct-11 9/19/2012 9/21/2012 12/21/2012 91 8 EDZ2 Comdty 98.6300 1.3700 Dec-11 12/19/2012 12/21/2012 3/21/2013 90 9 EDH3 Comdty 98.3600 1.6400 Mar-12 3/20/2013 3/22/2013 6/21/2013 91 10 EDM3 Comdty 98.0950 1.9050 Jun-12 6/19/2013 6/21/2013 9/20/2013 91 11 EDU3 Comdty 97.8450 2.1550 Sep-12 9/18/2013 9/20/2013 12/20/2013 91 * Libor Rates Libor Tenor Periodicity Expiration Rate US0002W index 2 W 5/30/2011 0.17975 US0001M index 1 M 6/16/2011 0.19875 US0002M index 2 M 7/18/2011 0.232
  • 35. How is the TED spread calculated? 3 methods. 1. Implied Yield: The stub Libor and ED rates are used to find the par coupon of a swap whose cash flows correspond to that of the treasury note. The TSY yield is subtracted from this par coupon to produced the spread. 2. Spread It represents the bps that must be subtracted from the stub Libor and 1 – Implied Yield TED: Par Coupon on a Eurodollar futures contract rates to set swap: Not tradable the PV of the TSY notes cash flows to 2 – Spread: Subtracting basis points its full market price (dirty). Act/360 money market basis points. from Futures 3 – Implied Price: PV of cash flows 3. Implied Price. (best). Method used in the next slide. The TSY notes cash flows are discounted at the stub Libor and Eurodollar futures rates. The implied yield resulting from the PV is subtracted from the TSY notes yield (S/A bond equivalent basis points).
  • 36. Calculate the TED spread Step 1 – Match the cash flows of the treasury note with the Eurodollar deposit periods. Step 2 – Find the interpolated Eurodollar discount function. On-the-run Treasury 2 year note Df 9/16/2011 = [1+0.00197632*30/360]-1 Coupon 0.625 percent Maturity 4/30/2013 *[1+0.00265*91/360]-1 Settlement 5/16/2011 =0.99166031 Accrued Interest 0.0220788 percent Clean Price 100.1523438 Df 12/23/2011 = [1+0.00197632*30/360]-1 Full price 100.1744226 *[1+0.00265*91/360]-1 Yield 0.5465946 percent *[1+0.0031*91/360] -1 Face Amount $1,000,000.00 *[1+0.004*91/360]-1 Cash Flows =0.998383686 Present We interpolate the discount factors for 10/31/2011,the payment date of the note. Date Interest Principal Df Value Rather than using the actual values, we use the natural log of these values (which 10/31/2011 3125 0 0.9987791 3121.19 flattens or smoothen the curvature of the ED forward curve). 4/30/2012 3125 0 0.9967968 3114.99 10/31/2012 3125 0 0.9928456 3102.64 LN(Df9/16/2011)=LN(0.99166031)=-0.00083 4/30/2013 3125 1000000 0.9861227 989204.3 Total PV= 998,543.1 LN(Df12/23/2011)=LN(0.998383686)=-0.00162 Dirty Price 99.85431 As 10/31/2011 is 45 days into the Sep – Dec 11 period, the discount factor should reflect 45/91 day change for the period. Clean px 99.83223 Df 10/31/2011=-0.00083+(45/91)*(-0.00162-(-0.00083)=-0.00122 Yield 0.711475 Using e ln(x) =x, where e is the base of the natural logarithm, we have e- 0.00122=0.998779081 TED 16.48806 (0.711475-0.5465946) The discount factors for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th terms are solved similarly. All the values are show in the cash flow table.
  • 37. Appendix: How to create an ED strip • The first step is to construct a forward strip that begins with the soonest- to-expire, front futures. • It ends with the contract whose deposit contains the maturity of the contiguous swap. • A cash libor deposit that spans the period from settlement to the front contract’s expiration is added to the front of the strip: The ‘front stub’. • The resulting structure is a synthetic, long term, Libor quality deposit that begins at settlement and terminates at the end of the final contract’s deposit period. • The rates in the chain determine the future value to which a present value would grow if invested during the sequence of deposits that makes up the strip. • In other words, the chain also determines the PV of a future payment occurring at the final maturity of the strip.
  • 38. Appendix: Pricing a Eurodollar Strip PV FV * [ 1 r /( t / 360)] 1 A eurodollar strip is composedof n depositperiods - each with a uniqueinterest rate (ri ) and term (ni ). So, we can write : PVi FVi * [ 1 ri ( t i / 360)] 1 ; PVi present value at the start of the ith depositperiod. FVi future value at the end of the ith deposit;ri interest rate for the ith depositperiod i number of the depositperiod, i 1,2,3...,n Solving for the PV of a sequenceof investments starting from n to n-1 : The strip is a sequenceof investments : The proceeds at the terminatio n of one depositare fully and immediatel y reinvested in the next depositperiod as a sequence. So, the present value for a given period is the future value of the preceding period. FVi 1 PVi . Applying this equation to, say, the third depositperiod : 1 PV3 FV3 * [ 1 r3 * ( t 3 / 360)] to find the present value of this deposit,we must discountit over the secondperiod : 1 PV2 FV2 * [ 1 r2 * ( t 2 / 360)] 1 PV2 PV3 * [ 1 r2 * ( t 2 / 360)] or PV2 FV3 * [ 1 r3 * ( t 3 / 360)] 1 * [ 1 r2 * ( t 2 / 360)] 1
  • 39. Solving for the PV of a sequence of investments from n to today and Discount Function We arrive at the present value of the cash flow at the sart of the depositperiod - that is, today - by discountin it over the firstperiod, g 1 PV1 FV3 * [ 1 r3 * ( t 3 / 360)] 1 * [ 1 r2 * ( t 2 / 360)] 1 * [ 1 r1 * ( t 3 / 360)] The quantity [ 1 ri * ( t i / 360)] 1 is the discountfactor, dfi , for period i over any depositperiods n over which FVn is discounted. The discountfactor determines , in present value - at the start of period, i of a sumpaid at the end of period i . 1 di [ 1 ri * ( t i / 360)] We can then express the PV as : PV FVn * ( df1 * df2 * df3 ... * dfn ) The right most term between the parentheses is the productof the n discountfactors that composethe strip.It is called the discountfunctionand is written as : DFn ( df1 * df2 * df3 ... * dfn ) where dfi discountfactor for period i DFn discountfunctioncomposedof the productof the n - period discountfactors. It gives PV FV * DFn .