1. The
Future
of
Business
|
IDE
|
Quito
|
20
April
2015

2. Looking
Forwards
Organisa>ons
increasingly
want
to
iden>fy
and
understand
both
the
an>cipated
and
unexpected
changes
so
that
they
can
be
beEer
prepared
for
the
future.

3. Future
Agenda
The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
program
that
accesses
mul>ple
views
of
the
next
decade
so
all
can
be
beEer
informed
and
s>mulate
innova>on.

4. FA
1.0
Top
Insights
for
2020
From
the
2010
program,
52
key
insights
on
the
next
decade
were
shared
widely
via
books,
cards
and
online
and
have
been
extensively
used
by
organisa>ons
around
the
world.

5. Future
Agenda
in
Numbers
The
first
Future
Agenda
programme
engaged
a
wide
range
of
views
in
25
countries.
Future
Agenda
2.0
is
doubling
the
face
to
face
interac>on
and
significantly
raising
online
sharing,
debate
and
discussion
Future
Agenda
1.0
1
HOST
16
TOPICS
25
COUNTRIES
50
WORKSHOPS
1500
ORGANISATIONS
Future
Agenda
2.0
35+
HOSTS
20
TOPICS
50
COUNTRIES
100
WORKSHOPS
2500
ORGANISATIONS

6. Future
Agenda
2.0
Topics
The
second
version
of
the
Future
Agenda
program
is
taking
place
during
2015
and
is
addressing
20
topics
via
100
events
in
50
countries
with
around
20
to
25
core
hosts.
Ageing
CiMes
Company
ConnecMvity
Data
EducaMon
Energy
Food
Government
Health
Learning
Loyalty
Payments
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work

7. The
Process
20
ini>al
perspec>ves
on
the
future
kicked
off
the
Future
Agenda
discussions
taking
place
across
5
con>nents
from
Feb
to
July
2015.
These
are
ini>al
views
to
be
shared,
challenged
and
enhanced.
Ini>al
Perspec>ves
Q4
2014
Global
Discussions
Q1/2
2015
Insight
Synthesis
Q3
2015
Sharing
Output
Q4
2015

8. The
Future
of
Business
From
the
discussions
so
far,
there
are
many
issues
iden>fied
as
being
significant
for
the
next
decade.
A
number
of
these
relate
to
the
future
of
business
and
are
included
in
the
following
pages.

9. Value
of
Data
There
is
undoubtedly
a
huge
economic
incen>ve
to
generate
and
collect
data
from
whatever
sources
it
becomes
available.
As
more
data
from
more
things
becomes
available,
we
can
expect
to
see
a
data
“land
grab”
by
organisa>ons.

10. The
Composite
Consumer
Flexible
digital
iden>>es
allow
consumers
to
connect
with
each
other
even
as
they
connect
with
brands.
Loyal
rela>onships
will
be
made
not
just
with
individual
customers
but
also
with
families,
couples,
and
groups
of
friends.

11. The
Human
Touch
In
a
world
of
global
and
digital
marke>ng
and
consump>on,
consumers
will
increasingly
favour
those
brands
that
can
offer
more
emo>onal
engagements,
and
specifically
human-­‐to-­‐human
contact.

12. Age
Diversified
Workforces
The
demographic
changes
underway
are
fundamentally
altering
virtually
all
aspects
of
life
as
we
know
it.
Workforces
are
becoming
older
and
more
age
diversified
than
ever
in
history.

13. Consumer
Power
The
consumer
is
likely
to
gain
the
upper
hand
in
terms
of
the
power
dynamic
and
principles
such
as
‘great
customer
service’
will
no
longer
be
a
nego>able.

14. Real
Cost
of
Water
Users
are
likely
to
have
to
pay
for
the
real
cost
of
infrastructure.
One
short-­‐term
op>on
is
the
financial
recycling
of
assets
and
capital.
However,
in
the
longer-­‐term
we
will
have
to
pay
the
true
value
for
key
resources.

15. Less
Carbon
-­‐
More
Energy
The
climate
change
debate
is
serious
but
needs
to
be
broader,
focused
not
solely
on
reducing
CO2
emissions,
but
on
developing
a
low
carbon,
high-­‐energy
future
to
ensure
prosperity
for
all.

16. New
Value,
Different
Models
In
the
coming
years,
brands
will
need
to
be
disrup>ve
in
their
thinking
about
loyalty,
seeking
new
kinds
of
value
proposi>on,
exploring
different
models
and
redefining
the
very
ways
in
which
loyalty
is
conceived.

17. Enabling
Financial
Inclusion
With
many
organisa>ons
now
making
financial
inclusion
a
priority,
it
is
likely
we
will
see
a
significant
por>on
of
the
2.5bn
unbanked
adults
armed
with
electronic
payments
products
in
the
future.

18. Making
Compromises
Reconciling
the
need
for
companies
to
act
sustainably
and
in
accordance
with
principles
of
interna>onal
human
rights
with
the
local
prac>ces
will
require
compromise
to
develop
workable
context
and
industry-­‐specific
guidelines.

19. Business
SoluMons
to
Societal
Problems
Re-­‐visioning
the
role
of
business
in
society
may
lead
to
a
reduc>on
in
inequality,
less
par>san
poli>cs
and
greater
ac>on
as
businesses
take
the
lead
rather
than
wai>ng
for
Government
to
lead
them.

20. Readiness
for
Water
Scarcity
Currently
half
of
the
world’s
ci>es
with
more
than
100,000
in
habitants
are
situated
in
areas
experiencing
water
scarcity.
To
date
neither
governments
nor
businesses
have
done
enough
to
prepare
for
this.

21. Sustainable
ConsumpMon
Part
of
the
solu>on
to
food
supply
is
the
development
of
consump>on
paEerns
that
meet
requirements
in
a
safe,
nutri>ous
and
affordable
manner.
In
many
countries
this
will
mean
learning
to
eat
sustainably
with
less
reliance
on
meat.

22. Global
vs.
Local
Technology
is
by
its
very
nature
global
and
data
does
not
respect
na>onal
boundaries.
Can
na>on
states
con>nue
to
set
the
rules
or
will
tension
in
global
interoperability
drive
us
to
design
for
global
standards
but
with
localised
use?

23. Post
Modern
Workplaces
We
are
on
the
cusp
of
a
transi>on
to
a
world
where,
half
of
the
popula>ons
of
Europe
and
the
United
States
subscribe
to
post-­‐modern
values
of
autonomy
and
diversity.
The
workplace
will
not
escape
this
trend.

24. Over-­‐Mred
and
Over-­‐worked
Our
defini>on
of
success
and
the
adop>on
of
an
always-­‐connected
work-­‐life
have
made
the
millennial
genera>on
more
stressed
and
over-­‐>red
than
any
other.
The
high-­‐achievers
will
con>nue
to
pay
a
high
price
for
success.

25. FloaMng
CiMes?
Climate
change
poses
a
worrying
challenge
for
ci>es.
Already
50%
of
ci>es
are
dealing
with
its
effects,
and
nearly
all
are
at
risk.
Over
90%
of
all
urban
areas
are
coastal,
pugng
most
ci>es
on
earth
at
risk
of
flooding.

26. Hollowing
Out
the
Professions
Technology
is
challenging
the
white-­‐collar
worker
and
automa>ng
both
middle
and
high-­‐end
jobs.
The
future
will
see
fewer
accountants,
lawyers
and
doctors
and
a
hollowing
out
of
the
previously
‘safe’
professions.

27. Device
is
King,
Consumer
is
Queen
Whether
on
devices
or
in
the
cloud,
our
digital
repositories
will
know
who
we
are,
where
we
are
and
what
we
redeem.
Businesses
need
to
understand
these
new
intermediaries
and
how
they
define
our
rela>onships
with
their
brands.

28. ReplicaMng
Face-­‐Mme
Can
virtual,
online
learning
replicate
the
powerfully
immersive
interac>ons
that
form
the
basis
of
face-­‐to-­‐face
exchanges?
Learning
is
grounded
in
the
interplay
of
conversa>on,
experience
and
meaning.

29. Reaching
the
Limits
Growing
popula>ons
and
rising
consumer
demand
related
to
higher
standards
of
living
across
all
socie>es
are
increasing
consump>on
of
resources
and
we
are
in
danger
of
exceeding
the
Earth’s
natural
thresholds.

30. Digital
Engagement
Ci>es
are
using
digital
plaiorms
to
beEer
plan
for
the
future
and
encourage
public
engagement.
Using
new
technology
and
big
data
to
support
strategic
planning
of
a
city
can
help
improve
public
engagement
with
the
process.

31. Inequality
On
The
Agenda
Inequality
has
become
a
concern
not
just
for
developing
countries
but
also
for
those
in
the
US
and
the
Euro
Zone:
56%
of
people
living
in
rich
countries
believe
the
most
pressing
problem
of
the
economy
is
inequality.

32. Reducing
Food
Waste
Postharvest
losses
of
plant
foods
can
be
substan>al
in
developing
countries
and
amount
to
30-­‐50%
of
produc>on.
In
developed
countries
we
throw
away
a
similar
propor>on.
The
combined
loss
would
feed
about
3
billion
people.

33. Learning
From
The
Crowd
Embracing
adap>ve
learning
and
the
crowd-­‐sourced
learning
solu>ons
radically
changes
the
culture
surrounding
learning
and
promotes
the
shil
from
a
top-­‐down
model
to
one
of
collabora>on
and
exchange.

34. The
Personal
Data
Dilemma
Lurking
ominously
in
the
background
there
is
also
the
ques>on
of
to
what
extent
consumers
will
allow
us
to
collect
and
use
their
personal
informa>on,
and
what
they
will
expect
in
return?

35. People-­‐Powered
Planning
In
an
era
where
the
public
voice
is
easier
to
access
and
harder
to
suppress,
it
becomes
harder
to
generate
support
for
new
ini>a>ves
without
taking
public
views
into
account.
Leaders
will
need
to
maintain
public
and
poli>cal
support.

36. Human
Capitalism
There
is
an
increasing
pressure
to
move
to
a
new
form
of
capitalism,
one
with
a
more
human
side
to
it
that
reconnects
with
the
need
to
create
and
distribute
wealth
for
the
benefit
of
society
rather
than
for
the
benefit
of
a
select
few.

37. AcMve
Divestment
A
poten>al
change
is
the
influence
of
the
divestment
movement
which
is
currently
focused
on
persuading
ins>tu>onal
investors
to
divest
from
fossil
fuels,
but
which
in
>me
may
extend
to
investments
in
other
resources.

38. PosiMve
ImmigraMon
Economists
agree
that
immigra>on
is
good
for
economies.
Migrants
tend
to
be
younger,
more
enterprising,
and
economically
ac>ve,
and
their
effect
on
wages,
economic
growth
and
tax
contribu>ons
is
almost
completely
posi>ve.

39. Avoiding
Unrest
We
need
to
address
the
issues
of
wealth
crea>on
and
wealth
distribu>on
in
order
to
avoid
a
build-­‐up
of
societal
pressure
that
leads
to
poli>cal
instability,
societal
unrest
and
even
regime
change.

40. Get
Involved
Join
in
the
global
discussion:
Par>cipate
in
/
host
workshops
and
share
your
views
online.
Add
alterna>ve
perspec>ves
into
the
mix
to
create
a
deeper,
richer
and
global
view
of
the
World
in
2025

41. Future
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