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What's Trending in NATO Commercial Technologies and Games

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What's Trending in NATO Commercial Technologies and Games

  1. 1. Behind the Page: Text Analysis Uncovers Trends 011 01000111101010 100100100100100100100 111010010100100100101 101000101010101001010 010100101001001001101 0010110 Jay Gendron, SimIS Inc. Hampton Roads, Virginia  April 15-17, 2014
  2. 2. Consider…
  3. 3. The Plan • Understand the Problem (Use Case) • Look at Past Predictions. Met? • Analysis – speed boat, not SCUBA dive • Results of Analysis • Trends in Commercial Technologies and Gamification
  4. 4. Problem (NATO Use Case) Management Questions • What are trends in industry and gamification? • Have we met the predictions? • How do we know this? 2003 Small Biz… 2008 Predictions 2013 Now What
  5. 5. Predictions 1. Highly realistic scenarios would become affordable those outside military training 2. Training games would be become more realistic than those for entertainment 3. New types of training scenarios would drive new types of training technologies 4. Joint missions would drive interoperable solutions 5. End-user experience would command greater emphasis in development processes
  6. 6. Analysis Plan Workshop Date and Location Page Count MSG-074 May 18 – 20, 2009; Farnborough, UK 12 MSG-078 September 22-24, 2009; Suffolk, US 4 MSG-093 November 2-4, 2010; Rome, IT 12 MSG-108 October 25-28, 2011; Farnborough, UK 24 MSG-113 April 16-18, 2012; Genoa, IT 31 MSG-114 November 13-15, 2013; Kjeller, NO 35 MSG-130 October 9-11, 2013; La Spezia, IT 39 Topic Model LSA/SVD Cluster Analysis Topic Definition Topic Traces
  7. 7. Topic Model ID Importance Topic Keys A 1.34305 mr nato game technologies learning provided development dr system immersive buck virtual presentation education games examples commercial technical world 2 0.04586 italy genoa immersive information university bruzzone fear diptem scorm thurkettle lms april plans web united procedural miss busetta belief 3 0.09772 maritime navy things data people domain includes noted naval threats series number effects platform cmre knowledge team large case
  8. 8. Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA)
  9. 9. Singular Value Decomposition
  10. 10. Clustering
  11. 11. Topic “Gut Check” from Clusters
  12. 12. Topic Definition – People Power Topic ID: 1 Topic: Immersive Learning Environments for Education and Training Topic Keys: italy,genoa,immersive,information,university,bruzzone,fear,diptem,scorm,thurkettle,lms,april,plans,web,united,p rocedural,miss,busetta,belief Topic ID: 2 Topic: Assessing Pedagogical Effectiveness of Maritime Training Topic Keys: maritime,navy,things,data,people,domain,includes,noted,naval,threats,series,number,effects,platform,cmre,know ledge,team,large,case Topic ID: 5 Topic: Social Media Dimension of Gamification Topic Keys: gave,worlds,garcia,learners,aims,free,simulation,gamification,crowd,johnny,november,digital,cdr,social,traditio nal,technology,supervision,unlimited,coffee Topic ID: 6 Topic: Future of Commercially Available Games in Military Applications Topic Keys: mosbe,bluefor,dive,civilian,lto,big,test,actual,fit,subject,simon,sensurprys,summation,versus,programme,strategi es,back,belief,insurgency Topic ID: 8 Topic: Human Dimension of Serious Games Implementation Topic Keys:
  13. 13. Topics Overlaid on Cluster
  14. 14. Finding 1: Scenario realism continues to improve and shows an association with the level of discussion of social media and the human dimension during workshops Recommendation: Future events should strive to balance discussions on technological and human dimension topics by considering different use cases at each event.
  15. 15. Finding 2: Discussions focused on solving new requirements tend to lag the introduction of the topic by three workshop events. Recommendation: Workshop planners should use an outreach plan to align topic introduction with desired solution timeframe and assume an 18-month lead-time for a trend to emerge.
  16. 16. Finding 3: Discussions focused on user experience have emerged within the workshop reports and persist in current discourse Recommendation: Process topics seem a likely evolution from technology to people to process. Harness user experience discourse to highlight process-oriented games and training requirements.
  17. 17. Finding 4: Assessment of training effectiveness, return on investment, and time efficiencies recently emerged as a workshop topic and this will likely continue Recommendation: Assessment includes topics ranging from pedagogy to return on investment to time savings. Extend calls for papers on these topics for future workshops.
  18. 18. Qualitative Trends Technology Industry Government  Massive Open Online Course (MOOC)  Mobile Learning Technologies  Alternate Reality Games (ARG)  Networks and Architectures  Open Source or Proprietary  Understanding the Needs of Government eLearning  MOOCs as a Disrupting Technology  Standards for Gaming  Collaboration  Architecture for MOOCs  Augmented Reality and Virtual Worlds
  19. 19. Summary • Management questions on ROI • Predictions stated • Application of humanities approaches • Supported ROI and predictions
  20. 20. Consider… • Text Analysis combined with clustering can see the unseeable • Models may also support predictive analysis • All work done with open-source tools