The
Demographic
Transition
Model

The Demographic Transition Model is a
geographical model used to explain the process
of change from high birth rates and high death
rates to low birth rates and low death rates as
part of the economic development of a country
from a pre-industrial to an industrialized
economy.

The Demographic Transition Model is a
geographical model used to explain the process
of change from high birth rates and high death
rates to low birth rates and low death rates as
part of the economic development of a country
from a pre-industrial to an industrialized
economy.

Time

Time
Level of Development

Amount
Time
Level of Development

Amount
Time
Level of Development

Amount
Time
Level of Development

Amount
Time
Level of Development

Amount
Time
Level of Development

Stage 1
Amount
Time
Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2
Amount
Time
Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
Amount
Time
Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Amount
Time
Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Time
Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Level of Development

Death rate is high
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Birth rate is high
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Death rate falls due to better health care and diet and
improvements in the standard of living
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Birth rate remains high
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Death rate continues to fall
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Birth rate falls with introduction of family planning, better
education and the falling death rate
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Death rate is low
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Birth rate is low
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Death rate remains low
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Birth rates falls below the death rate
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development
Population

Population can be added to the Demographic Transition Model -
times of natural increase and natural decrease can be observed
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development
Population

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Amount
Death Rate Time
Birth Rate Level of Development
Population

Limitations of the model
The model was developed after studying the
experiences of countries of Western Europe,
Japan and North America. Therefore the
conditions of wealth and resources might be
different for LEDCs.
It does not account for recent phenomena such
as AIDS and the resulting mortality decline.