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Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




 Getting Attention 2.0: Artists and
 Audiences in a Connected World
            Presentation at the Scottish Arts Council
             ‘Partnerships 2.0’ event in Edinburgh
                       October 23, 2008



Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                   This is a Future that is yours
Eric Schmidt (Google): Almost all of the historic models have limitations in
what consumers could do. You could only watch television on a television.
                You could only listen to radio on a radio.




   Technology now allows you to mix and match, to do anything you want.


 The business models that empower end users are the ones that will win.


The business models that say no to an end use will ultimately be replaced
 by one that empowers end users because eventually the consumer gets
                           what they want.

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



        Now, for us as ‘Content’ Creators...

Friction is Fiction.

We either engage or we... enrage.

We participate or we... are participated




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                      Everything is going digital...
                                                       3000
                                                       Books
                                                       published
                                                       every
                                                       single
                                                       Day




Thursday, October 23, 2008
When?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




             We often overestimate how quickly it will happen

             We often underestimate the magnitude of the

             changes when it does happen

             We have already overestimated the

             Internet for the past 10 years!
                               3% of the world on broadband now
                                10% on broadband in 18 months
                               4 Billion mobile users in 12 months
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Imagine: 4 Billion phones connected to the Internet
                         =
4 Billion people looking for Content!




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                       Creativity
               is the
       Currency of the Future
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                   Once technology becomes dead-simple...




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



            This is very good news indeed




                   Source: Flickr hillarylmrore




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                  Formerly      Now
    Audience                   Users
    Consumer                   Co-Creators
     Listener                  Contributors
                               Peers
    Customer                   Producers
      Buyer                    Promoters...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




         These
         People are
         your new              Users
         Marketing,            Co-Creators
                               Contributors
         Sales and             Peers
                               Producers
         Promotions            Promoters...

         Team
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

              Sharing is Caring is...Success




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                     The result of this exploding
     Broadband Culture:




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


The Coelho Story: ‘Piracy’ as business model
quot;I found a pirated Russian translation of quot;The Alchemistquot;, and we were
  selling 1000 copies a year in Russia, that's not very impressive, so I
   said OK, let's put the pirate edition online for people to downloadquot;.

   “In 2001 it sold 10'000 copies, and everybody was puzzled, and the
                     next year we went over 100'000quot;.

                 His publisher had not done any particular promotion.

      quot;It was, believe it or not, the free-for-download book. People
  downloaded it, started reading it, liked it, and bought it...In the third
 year we had over 1 million copies, now we're over 10 million copies in
                                   Russiaquot;.

             “Publishers have a tendency to try to protect the content.
                               It's a lost battle”
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                             Protecting
                          our Creations is
                        “Mission Impossible”




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Stop this?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                               Asking the ISPs to deep-
                               package inspect their traffic
                               and then enforce the rules of
                               an industry that has utterly
                               failed to adapt their business
                               model, is asking for

                               Censorship
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




           For Creators,
        Obscurity is a much
       greater threat than so-
           called Piracy

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Instead of Control, Trust is the key to success in a Networked World




                               http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/apr/21/netmusic

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


Without sharing, the creative industries are dead in the water

           quot;In the past you were what you owned.
                Now you are what you share.quot;
                               Charles Leadbeater – We Think




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                             “Copy = Most of the Value”
The traditional Western Paradigm of ‘Copyright
as Sole Value of Content’ is unsustainable




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



  You can’t really ‘own’ the copy any more but


    You can own the Context, the
    Meaning, the Relevance, the
    Experience, the Embodiment,
    the Timing...
      Let people share your creations and you will win.
                   Attention begets income.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


   A web-native content business model...?
                 Based on flat-rate / free access first, then Copy
                 Based on allowing use not preventing copy
                 Based many revenue streams selling-copies
                 Driven by Sharing, User-to-User
                 Decentralized (user-to-user)
                 Powered by next-generation Advertising
                 Multi-platform access but mostly mobile!

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


               The ‘old’ model won’t work.




                               Source: UniversalMcCann waves report

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


     This is a very serious change


                             Copy Economy


                             Access /
                             Usage /
                              Share
                             Economy
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

       Our Future as Creatives: Attention-based Income
     explodes while Copy-based income declines *for now
                               Copy Based Revenues
                               Attention Based Revenues




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


             Media 2.0: networked, web-native,  de-
      centralized, collaborative, engaged, transparent




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

       Now: the PFKaC, together, can beat ‘the Firms’




                                  Media is social...
                                       again!


Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Let’s talk about Hits




   It’s all about Niche                    Success Now




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




    Getting Attention means getting Income




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




  Finding and
  Being Found


Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                               Examples




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                             Why social networks?




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                      What are your keywords?




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                               How will you get
                                 Attention?




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                 First, it’s about Attention -
                                            and then
                             it’s about converting it to cash!




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




  ๏       Professional amateurs only
  ๏       60.000 part-time photographers
  ๏       3.5 Million images and 100.000 videos
  ๏       38 forum posts per minute
  ๏       Paid out $27 Million to creators in 2007
  ๏       2 Million customers buying
  ๏       Sold for $50 Million to Getty Images in 2005
  ๏       Huge cost savings for design firms etc
  ๏       Great example for lower cost AND higher convenience
  ๏       Great example for the power of Pro-Am sourcing
  ๏       Non-crowdsourced incumbents find it hard to compete

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




So...become the world’s talent!
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Get used to the concept of 3rd party payments




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                  Brands + Creators = a Future




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

   The web powers the global trend towards Feels Like Free




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



Example: The digital Music Flat Rate




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                                And then...

                               Software
      GAmes / Interactive
         Books / Print
       Films / TV / Video
             Music
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                              Now,
                        we must ‘sell’ things
                               that can’t
                                       be
                                 copied
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




 • If copies lose their ‘value’ we must sell
      something that can’t be copied
 •    Sell the package - not just the content
 •    Sell experiences and performances
 •    Sell your ‘brand’

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                               Generating Attention
• Yes, people want to get to know you
• People must hear about you in many different places
• People must hear about you repeatedly *but with the same message
• Learning to “Fish where the fish are” is crucial




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                     But how to find the time?
    •      As a creator, you need to know this
    •      Setting it up takes some real time, but
           afterwards it can be as little as 30 min / day
    •      This is YOU we are talking about - people
           want to connect with YOU
    •      If you don’t talk nobody will listen!
    •      Get your fans to help you *** Crowd-sourcing




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


        What you need: turbo-charged Followers




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                             Some New Possibilities

    ‣ Have your fans decide where to do the next
          gig (Facebook or Myspace group?)
    ‣     Have your fans upload pictures of you
    ‣     Find your next video director online
    ‣ Source collaborators that will work for free
    ‣ Have agents discover you online
    ‣ Find licensors for your content online (films,
          ads, games etc)

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 But you still need to fish where the fish are!




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Be warned...




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


         No, it’s not all just

• Attention Deficit Disorder on the rise everywhere
• The sheer Noise can be brutal
• Digital Obesity becomes common
• Privacy becomes something you have to ask for
• Digital Darwinism may occur
• The world is your oyster... and your competition!


Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




      Yes, there are many issues, but:

   The evils of ‘too open’ or ‘too much

   freedom’ will always pale compared

              to the evils of closed, central,

   controlled and authoritarian system
                               *which is what we had ;)

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                                  What used to matter...


                                                        Cash

                       Location
                                       Age
                                                  Gender


                         Race
                                    Pedigree
                                               Qualification


Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                       What will matter



                                                          Reputation

                               Merit     Credibility




                   Creativity
                                             Quality



Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               Summary




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




   quot;When the winds of change are blowing,
   some people are building shelters, and
   others are building windmills.quot;
   Chinese Proverb




Thursday, October 23, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               www.mediafuturist.com
                               www.twitter.com/gleonhard
                               gleonhard on Facebook
                               www.music20thebook.com
                               www.endofcontrol.com


                             Thanks for listening!

Thursday, October 23, 2008

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Artists And Audiences In A Connected World Gerd Leonhard Futurist

  • 1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Getting Attention 2.0: Artists and Audiences in a Connected World Presentation at the Scottish Arts Council ‘Partnerships 2.0’ event in Edinburgh October 23, 2008 Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 2. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This is a Future that is yours Eric Schmidt (Google): Almost all of the historic models have limitations in what consumers could do. You could only watch television on a television. You could only listen to radio on a radio. Technology now allows you to mix and match, to do anything you want. The business models that empower end users are the ones that will win. The business models that say no to an end use will ultimately be replaced by one that empowers end users because eventually the consumer gets what they want. Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 3. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Now, for us as ‘Content’ Creators... Friction is Fiction. We either engage or we... enrage. We participate or we... are participated Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 5. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 6. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Everything is going digital... 3000 Books published every single Day Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 7. When? Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist We often overestimate how quickly it will happen We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes when it does happen We have already overestimated the Internet for the past 10 years! 3% of the world on broadband now 10% on broadband in 18 months 4 Billion mobile users in 12 months Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Imagine: 4 Billion phones connected to the Internet = 4 Billion people looking for Content! Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Creativity is the Currency of the Future Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 10. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Once technology becomes dead-simple... Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 11. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This is very good news indeed Source: Flickr hillarylmrore Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Formerly Now Audience Users Consumer Co-Creators Listener Contributors Peers Customer Producers Buyer Promoters... Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist These People are your new Users Marketing, Co-Creators Contributors Sales and Peers Producers Promotions Promoters... Team Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Sharing is Caring is...Success Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 15. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The result of this exploding Broadband Culture: Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 16. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Coelho Story: ‘Piracy’ as business model quot;I found a pirated Russian translation of quot;The Alchemistquot;, and we were selling 1000 copies a year in Russia, that's not very impressive, so I said OK, let's put the pirate edition online for people to downloadquot;. “In 2001 it sold 10'000 copies, and everybody was puzzled, and the next year we went over 100'000quot;. His publisher had not done any particular promotion. quot;It was, believe it or not, the free-for-download book. People downloaded it, started reading it, liked it, and bought it...In the third year we had over 1 million copies, now we're over 10 million copies in Russiaquot;. “Publishers have a tendency to try to protect the content. It's a lost battle” Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Protecting our Creations is “Mission Impossible” Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 18. Stop this? Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 19. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Asking the ISPs to deep- package inspect their traffic and then enforce the rules of an industry that has utterly failed to adapt their business model, is asking for Censorship Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist For Creators, Obscurity is a much greater threat than so- called Piracy Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 21. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Instead of Control, Trust is the key to success in a Networked World http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/apr/21/netmusic Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 22. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Without sharing, the creative industries are dead in the water quot;In the past you were what you owned. Now you are what you share.quot; Charles Leadbeater – We Think Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 23. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist “Copy = Most of the Value” The traditional Western Paradigm of ‘Copyright as Sole Value of Content’ is unsustainable Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist You can’t really ‘own’ the copy any more but You can own the Context, the Meaning, the Relevance, the Experience, the Embodiment, the Timing... Let people share your creations and you will win. Attention begets income. Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A web-native content business model...? Based on flat-rate / free access first, then Copy Based on allowing use not preventing copy Based many revenue streams selling-copies Driven by Sharing, User-to-User Decentralized (user-to-user) Powered by next-generation Advertising Multi-platform access but mostly mobile! Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 26. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The ‘old’ model won’t work. Source: UniversalMcCann waves report Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 27. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This is a very serious change Copy Economy Access / Usage / Share Economy Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 28. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Our Future as Creatives: Attention-based Income explodes while Copy-based income declines *for now Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 29. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Media 2.0: networked, web-native, de- centralized, collaborative, engaged, transparent Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 30. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Now: the PFKaC, together, can beat ‘the Firms’ Media is social... again! Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 31. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Let’s talk about Hits It’s all about Niche Success Now Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 32. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Getting Attention means getting Income Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 33. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Finding and Being Found Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 34. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Examples Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 35. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Why social networks? Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist What are your keywords? Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 37. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How will you get Attention? Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 38. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist First, it’s about Attention - and then it’s about converting it to cash! Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 39. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ๏ Professional amateurs only ๏ 60.000 part-time photographers ๏ 3.5 Million images and 100.000 videos ๏ 38 forum posts per minute ๏ Paid out $27 Million to creators in 2007 ๏ 2 Million customers buying ๏ Sold for $50 Million to Getty Images in 2005 ๏ Huge cost savings for design firms etc ๏ Great example for lower cost AND higher convenience ๏ Great example for the power of Pro-Am sourcing ๏ Non-crowdsourced incumbents find it hard to compete Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 40. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist So...become the world’s talent! Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 41. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Get used to the concept of 3rd party payments Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 42. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Brands + Creators = a Future Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 43. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The web powers the global trend towards Feels Like Free Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 44. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Example: The digital Music Flat Rate Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 45. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist And then... Software GAmes / Interactive Books / Print Films / TV / Video Music Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 46. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Now, we must ‘sell’ things that can’t be copied Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 47. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • If copies lose their ‘value’ we must sell something that can’t be copied • Sell the package - not just the content • Sell experiences and performances • Sell your ‘brand’ Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 48. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 49. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Generating Attention • Yes, people want to get to know you • People must hear about you in many different places • People must hear about you repeatedly *but with the same message • Learning to “Fish where the fish are” is crucial Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 50. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist But how to find the time? • As a creator, you need to know this • Setting it up takes some real time, but afterwards it can be as little as 30 min / day • This is YOU we are talking about - people want to connect with YOU • If you don’t talk nobody will listen! • Get your fans to help you *** Crowd-sourcing Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 51. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist What you need: turbo-charged Followers Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 52. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some New Possibilities ‣ Have your fans decide where to do the next gig (Facebook or Myspace group?) ‣ Have your fans upload pictures of you ‣ Find your next video director online ‣ Source collaborators that will work for free ‣ Have agents discover you online ‣ Find licensors for your content online (films, ads, games etc) Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 53. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist But you still need to fish where the fish are! Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 54. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Be warned... Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 55. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist No, it’s not all just • Attention Deficit Disorder on the rise everywhere • The sheer Noise can be brutal • Digital Obesity becomes common • Privacy becomes something you have to ask for • Digital Darwinism may occur • The world is your oyster... and your competition! Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 56. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Yes, there are many issues, but: The evils of ‘too open’ or ‘too much freedom’ will always pale compared to the evils of closed, central, controlled and authoritarian system *which is what we had ;) Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 57. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist What used to matter... Cash Location Age Gender Race Pedigree Qualification Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 58. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist What will matter Reputation Merit Credibility Creativity Quality Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 59. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Summary Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 60. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist quot;When the winds of change are blowing, some people are building shelters, and others are building windmills.quot; Chinese Proverb Thursday, October 23, 2008
  • 61. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com www.twitter.com/gleonhard gleonhard on Facebook www.music20thebook.com www.endofcontrol.com Thanks for listening! Thursday, October 23, 2008