The PDF of my speech at PICNIC 2009 in Amsterdam, see http://www.picnicnetwork.org/page/53112/en Key points: * Social Networks are the Next Broadcasters * The world's OS is changing: from closed to open * What does a Social OS look like? * Copyright Gridlock * The global social brain * Socially augmented reality * The extreme reputation economy... and much more

1. The next 5 years in
Social Media
‣ Futurist
‣ Strategist
‣ Author & Blogger
www.mediafuturist.com
twitter.com/gleonhard
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2. First: a big “Thank You” to everyone in my Network
Most of what I ‘know’ you have given to me.
Knowledge grows when shared
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3. The World’s Operating System is Morphing
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4. Not Social
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5. Business
Marketing
Social
Not Social Advertising
Content & Media
Communication
Education
Politics
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6. Social
A new, social OS
Not Social
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7. Peer
Meet the New Broadcasters
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8. A fundamental Shift: Closed to Open
Business
Telecommunication
Education Energy
Media & Content
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9. Telecommunication
Business
Media & Content
Education Energy
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10. 10

11. Open....is a real challenge
The Desire for Control is ingrained in
our genes, our lives, our education
Open can mean out-of-control & chaotic
Openness can create risk.
Open may feel unsafe.
The Degree of Openness
and your Revenue Growth Rate
will be directly related
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12. Guess what:
Anything ‘Social’
must be
Open.
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13. 12 Months: Total Copyright Gridlock
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14. 12-24 Months: Resistance
to Change retires!
Source: FT.com ‘claws and effect’
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15. 3-5 years:
Ownership
will matter a
lot less, Mind-
and Market-
share will
matter a lot
more
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16. 2-3 Years: the global, social ‘Brain’
Geotagging
Bookmark- Real-Time
Sharing Reviews
Status
Updates
Life-
Augmented Pictures &
streaming
Video
Reality
Uploading
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17. 5 years: 1/3 of the population will engage
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18. 18 months: Socially Augmented Reality
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19. 2 years: the cost of staying in
touch drops towards zero
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
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20. Next 18 Months: real-time, social, mobile:
Feedback, Rating, Comments, Tagging...
Source: trendwatching.com
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21. Extreme Reputation Economy
The absence of accurate,
real-time and verified data
about you or your business
may soon mean that you
virtually don’t exist
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22. 2 years: Social Business... or none
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23. 12 months: Social Media is CRM
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24. Social Business =Trust Osmosis
s t
Tru
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25. Within 12-24 Months: intelligent,
automated Social ‘Agents’
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The Semantic Web

26. 12 months: Privacy becomes an action we must take
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27. 12-18 Months: Digital Jet Lag becomes a serious issue
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28. Curation & Filtering becomes a huge business
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29. 2 years: Social ‘Books’
Curated
Interactive
Real-time
Commons-owned
Connected
Peer-reviewed
Non-Linear
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30. 3 years: Social Capital will be become
as important as actual money.
The cult(ure) of API is exploding
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31. Social Capital Example
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32. 3 years: Social Advertising = 30% of digital
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33. Adios to ‘disconnected’ Advertising
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34. 18 months: much smarter, social advertising
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35. 2 years: one-way communications from a
non-trusted source are 99%
useless
Inspired by trendwatching.com
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36. 36

37. The Future of Social Media
Abundance of... Scarcity of....
Many new Products &
Trusted Opinions
Services
ConTEXT &
Content
Trusted Filters
Connectivity Private Spaces
Human Ingenuity &
Machine Intelligence
Creativity
Numbers of
Actual Relationships
‘Connections’
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38. 2-5 years: virtual venues,
telepresence & holography
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39. 3-5 years: 30% Freemium in
most ‘Content’ Industries
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40. About Social Media Monetization
• Behavior, habit & culture changes
always come first
• Monetization is a possible
consequence (not a starting point)
• Every large and engaged
audience can be turned into
money. Source: Morgan Stanley Conference 2009
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41. REVENUE
Expect radical habit changes when the
technology actually works
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42. Thanks for listening!
• email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
• twitter.com/gleonhard
• facebook: gleonhard
• more presentations at
www.mediafuturist.com
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