1. Water, Food, Energy and Institutions: Inextricably Linked Uma Lele Keynote Address Consulting Partners Meeting Global Water Partnership, Stockholm August 18, 2011 Dr UmaLele

2. Food Price Rise and Volatility? ? Dr UmaLele

4. Trends in world hunger Undernourishment in 2010, by Region (mill.) Largest Number of the world’s hungry in South Asia

5. Under Five Malnourishment Challenge: South Asia and SSA off track Dr UmaLele

6. Progress on access to an improved water source Progress on access to improved sanitation

8. Cereal Production (Net of Biofuels) wouldneed to increase by 70%

9. Meat production by 220%,

10. Cereal Imports of Developing countries will increase by 220%Dr UmaLele

12. All in LDCs

13. Income Growth

14. Mostly in LDCs

15. Urbanization:

16. Up from 50% to 70%

17. Shift in Food Preferences:

18. Rice, Wheat, Maize, Soybeans for Feed:

19. Biofuels: maize, oilseeds

21. Limits to Land, Water, Soils, Biodiversity, Forests, Fisheries

22. Energy shortages and subsidies,

23. Last Frontiers?

24. Brazil, SSA?

25. Increased Risks and Uncertainty (from climates, global market integration)

26. Slowing Productivity Growth

27. Stagnant Investment levels in R and D

29. Where is land? Where Is Water for Food? 72% of Irrigation in Asia Dr UmaLele

33. Increased yields per ha

34. Changing cropping patters

35. Multiple cropping on unit of landDr UmaLele

36. More Crop Per Drop?Regional Productivity Growth in Parts of China has been higher than anywhere elsewhere on a a scaled up basis”Top Ten Provinces The top ten provinces in TFP growth for the 1985-2007 period. Six of them are on the east coast Jiangxi 8.17% Guangdong* 8.11% Hebei* 7.95% Fujian* 7.89% Shandong* 7.37% Hubei 7.34% Inner Mongolia 7.26% Zhejiang* 7.19% Sichuan 7.18% Liaoning* 6.83% Wang, Tuan, Gale, Somwaru, and Hanson. AAEA 2011

37. Note: (1999-2009) (Red circle) Agricultural Growth Rates > 4% (Black circle) Agricultural Growth Rates 2% to 4% (while circle) Agricultural Growth Rates <2 % Source: Based on Total Factor Productivity and Contribution of Research Investment to Agricultural Growth in India: Ramesh Chand et al. NCAP 2011

38. Improved Water Management in East and South East Asia and Scope for Knowledge Transfers/ South – South Learning: China and Vietnam and South Asia In China and Viet Nam, agriculture water withdrawal as a percentage of total national water withdrawal has declined from 92.5 and 88.2 in 1990 to 68.1 and 67.7 in 2000 (FAO) and to 60% according to latest data (Khalid Mohtadullah) Incentivized Irrigation Bureaucrats in China have helped improved water management ( Tushaar Shah) Successful innovations in Gujarat in India Dr UmaLele

41. Water Management Challenges in India Irrigation Investment & Irrigated Area in India Source: Amerasinghe et al Dr UmaLele

42. Government Investment in Total Ag Research, On Soil and Water (incl. Education) in Agriculture by Sub-sectors in India: 1960-1961 to 2007-08 (in million Rs at current prices) Source: Total Factor Productivity and Contribution of Research Investment to Agricultural Growth in India: Ramesh Chand et al. NCAP 2011

44. China Stands out in Public Agricultural R and D Spending Relative to SSA, Brazil and India Source: ASTI as reported in Beintema and Stads (2011) Dr UmaLele

45. Average annual TFP growth > 2% 1-2% < 1% Average ag TFP growth, 1970-2006 (% per year) Former USSR Caribbean Developing Oceania Sub-Saharan Africa Circled regions show persistently low TFP growth Source: Keith Fuglie, Technology Capital, The Price of Admission to the Growth Club

46. Rainfed Agriculture Yields Are Converging Average Grain yields in Sub-Saharan Africa (37%) of Average Yields in Other Regions Source: Food Security Assessment, 2010-20 / GFA-21; Economic Research Service/USDA Dr UmaLele

47. Source: Food Aid Flows Report 2009 by WFP and www.wfp.org/fais Dr UmaLele

48. International Cooperation in Water and Food Goal 8 Dr UmaLele

49. Estimates of total aid (all sectors) in 2007(Source: Kharas, 2009) Fragmented Aid Architecture (Source: Hudson Institute, Global Index of Philanthropy, 2009) (Source: OECD DAC database) (Source: Homi Kharas, 2009*) * Brookings Institute: Kharas, H., “Development Assistance in the 21st Century”, Contribution to the VIII Salamanca Forum, The Fight Against Hunger and Poverty, July 2009 (Source: OECD DAC database)

50. Declining ODA to Agriculture (1979 – 2007)

52. External Investment in Irrigation and Drainage Dr UmaLele

53. Increased Opportunities for GWPDecline in Technical Capacity at the World Bank Dr UmaLele

54. Total Biennial Resources Available (1994-2007) Note: The above figure shows FAO’s regular program budget is funded by its members, through contributions, adjusted to the Euro/US dollar exchange rate fixed by the FAO Conference. This budget covers core technical work, cooperation and partnerships including the Technical Cooperation Program, knowledge exchange, policy and advocacy, direction and administration, governance and security. The FAO’s regular budget for the biennium 2010-2011 has been increased by 7.6% to US$ 1000.5 million from the biennium 2008–2009 US$ 929.8 million, adjusted to the Euro/US dollar exchange rate fixed by the FAO Conference. Member states froze FAO's budget from 1994 through 2001 at US$650 million per biennium. The budget was raised slightly to US$651.8 million for 2002–03 and jumped to US$749 million for 2004–05, but this nominal increase was seen as a decline in real terms. In November 2005, the FAO governing Conference voted for a two-year budget appropriation of US$765.7 million for 2006–2007; once again, the increase only partially offset rising costs due to inflation. Source: FAO: The Challenge of Renewal: Report of the Independent External Evaluation of the FAO: September 2007 (figure 7.1) This figure shows FAO’s biennial resources in terms of US K$ at 1994 constant prices.

55. Implications for GWP and Partners GWP’s mission is worthy But development challenges have become more complex Generating and disseminating Relevant Knowledge is a costly business It is easier to explain differences in performance among regions and countries than to explain why or how and transferability of experience. Donor resources have become limited and fragmented More are being made available through Trust Funds Donor expectations about demonstrating impact has increased But donor time horizon has become shorter Leadership, institutions, capacity and demand for knowledge in developing countries are key for success GWP needs to mobilize the best of technical expertise. Quality of relations, trust and confidence with developing countries will be critical necessary conditions. Dr UmaLele

56. THANK YOU! Dr UmaLele