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Glyn Moody TAFTA/TTIP talk at re:publica 14

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This short talk presents a brief background to the Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP), also known as TAFTA, and explains why the predicted benefits are far smaller than are generally believed. It also explores an important but neglected aspect: the likely costs.

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Glyn Moody TAFTA/TTIP talk at re:publica 14

  1. 1.    transatlantic trade & investment partnership glyn moody
  2. 2.    transatlantic trade  EU+US  one half world's GDP  one third of world trade flows  EU<->US trade €500bn (2012)  trade agreement to reduce costs  tariffs  under 3%  TTIP is not a traditional trade agreement (except in its lack of transparency)
  3. 3.    non-tariff barriers (NTBs)  different regulations in EU, US  health, safety, environment, labour, financial  EU bans on GMOs, chlorine washing for chickens, hormones in beef; greater data protection  for citizens  welfare enhancing  cultural expressions  for TTIP: "trade irritants"
  4. 4.    tackling NTBs  levelling down - EU says no  levelling up - US says no  mutual recognition  chemicals in cosmetics  1300 ingredients banned in EU  11 ingredients banned in US  1289 chemicals banned in EU could be used in US products sold here  (future) convergence
  5. 5.    regulatory council  "living agreement" - De Gucht  "Horizontal Chapter on Regulatory Coherence"  "impact assessment/cost benefit analysis on proposed regulatory measures covered by this Chapter, should assess impacts on international and in particular transatlantic trade"  dilute/block legislation at a very early stage
  6. 6.    investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS)  basic idea is to protect investors from arbitrary government actions or weak court systems in developing countries  achieved by allowing companies to take action directly against governments  using specialist external tribunals  3 lawyers, meeting in secret
  7. 7.    ISDS (1)  over 500 cases (since 1987)  Ecuador - oil contract ($1.77bn)  Germany - phasing out nuclear power (€3.7bn; Energy Charter)  Canada – fracking ban ($250m)  Canada - Eli Lilly patents ($500m)  Australia, Uruguay – adding warnings to cigarette packs ($2bn)  2013 saw 57 more; Czech Rep. (7), Spain (6), Croatia (2), Hungary (2), Slovakia (2), Greece (1)
  8. 8.    ISDS (2)  EU - fracking, GMOs, pesticide bans; labour laws; software patents etc  14,400 US companies with 50,800 European subsidiaries  ISDS a ticking trade time-bomb  even European Commission trying to "improve" ISDS  chilling effect on future policy  Canada's experience under NAFTA
  9. 9.    do we need ISDS?  "US investment in the EU is 3 times higher than in all of Asia"  "EU investment in US is around 8 times the amount of EU investment in India and China together."  US invested €1.3 trillion in EU  EU invested €1.4 trillion in US  no problem to solve; no need  insurance (World Bank)  ISDS = socialisation of risk
  10. 10.    TTIP benefits (1)  Bertelsmann Stiftung (June 2013)  "The leveling of the barriers with the USA thus leads to a decline in trade that came about as a result of preferential treatment of intra-European trade flow"  intra-EU exports fall by 25%-41%  drop by €650bn/year  TTIP would hollow out the EU economically
  11. 11.    TTIP benefits (2)  Centre for Economic Policy Research (March 2013)  for European Commission  tariffs only: extra EU GDP of €24bn - 0.1% of GDP  ambitious comprehensive:  50% of "actionable" NTB removed  extra EU GDP of €119bn - 0.48%  extra €90bn for US GDP, extra €100bn for rest of world
  12. 12.    TTIP benefits (3)  "ambitious comprehensive" forecast gives extra 0.48%  in *2027* - 0.48% is cumulative GDP boost over 10 years  GDP growth is measured year-on- year - how much GDP goes up *in a year* (UK 2013: 1.7%)  on average, extra GDP growth per year resulting from TTIP will be O.05%
  13. 13.    TTIP costs  OFSE report (31 March 2014)  for GUE/NGL (Group of the European United Left/Nordic Green Left)  forgone tariffs - €30bn  labour adjustment costs - €10bn  forgone tax income and social security contributions - €7bn  ISDS - billions of Euros  social costs of regulatory change  health costs, ecosystem costs, amenity loss, cultural loss
  14. 14.    is it worth it? glyn.moody@gmail.com @glynmoody on Twitter/identi.ca +glynmoody on Google+ opendotdotdot.blogspot.com

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