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3 Decades of FTTH
- 1. HO05 Ethernet Passive Optical Networks 3 Decades of “Fiber-To-The-Home” Looking back, Where should we go? Greg Evans FlashPoint Technology, Inc. Wednesday September 6th, 2006
- 2. Year: 1987 Why do we need Fiber To The Home? “The Telcos are the fiber cable customer.” “The long haul transport fiber market is saturated.” “We need to develop a residential fiber market.”
- 3. Year: 1988 Plain Old Why not Fiber To The Home? Telephone Service Reliability must be 99.997% Cost must be lower than POTS Regulatory issues POTS vs. CATV Power for lifeline POTS services CAble TeleVision
- 4. Year: 1989
- 5. Year: 1989 PON Architecture for FTTC & FTTH (POTS & Video) 1.1 Gb/s Downstream (8.0 Mb/s Upstream) 32 Voice Circuits (POTS) 24 SDV Channel Slots (45 Mb/s each) Switched Digital ONU Video UTP 1-4 Voice SMF Pair Coax 180 Mb/s ... OLT 1x8 Splitter SMF Pair ONU UTP 1-4 Voice Central Office SMF Pair Coax 180 Mb/s Passive Optical Network
- 6. Year: 1989 Why Passive Optical Network (PON)? Fewer Lasers No active components in plant Lower deployment & maintenance costs Better overall reliability
- 7. Year: 1990 Major Telco FTTx POTS Trial 1991 SDV added to Trial (64 ch) Switched Digital Video 1993 Company IPO $18/sh -> $52/sh 1995 VDT Deployed in NJ (385 ch) Video Dial Tone 1999 Company abandons FTTx 2001 Company liquidates
- 8. Year: 1994 - 1998 Asymmetric Digital What went wrong ? Subscriber Line ADSL emerged User Generated Video content did not emerge Content Internet – UGC did emerge Fiber bandwidth no longer needed
- 9. Year: 1998 - 2003 Rise and fall of the “dot.com” Rise and fall of Telco broadband optimism For North America: Cable broadband became “king” DSL took a second seat Still no FTTH “killer app”
- 10. Year: 2005 Subscribers1 Broadband FTTH Asia2 & Australia3 83.0M 4.6M Europe3 56.5M 680k North America4 50.2M 540k Caribbean & Latin America3 5.6M trials only 1 RHK, Corning, Point Topic, Render Vanderslice (October 2005) 2 Asian statistics exclude Russia and the Middle East 3 Primarily DSL (Asia, Australia, Europe, Caribbean, & Latin America 4 Primarily Cable Modem with DSL for new adds (North America)
- 11. Year: 2006 What is different now? Economics is driving FTTH not technology. Video Maybe the “killer app” has arrived Voice Data Triple Play (Convergence)
- 12. FTTH Worldwide Forecasts1 Year 2005 ~6M Year 2007 ~13M Year 2009 ~23M Year 2011 ~64M Country2 Subscribers Penetration Architecture Japan 31.3M 62.6% EPON China 12.0M 3.3% EPON United States 10.3M 9.1% GPON/BPON South Korea 7.6M 40.0% EPON Taiwan 3.2M 46.4% EPON 1 Corning, In-Stat, Point Topic, Gartner 2 FTTH Worldwide Market & Technology Forecast, 2006-2011: http://img.lightreading.com/heavyreading/pdf/hr20060616_fig1_full.gif
- 13. Looking Back at 3 Decades of Progress 6 Million Subscribers Max Downstream (Mb/s) 1200 1250 2500 1250 Max Upstream (Mb/s) 8 622 2500 1250 Max PON splits (#) 8 32 64 16
- 14. 2005 2010 2015 Economics Technology A challenge to the Research Community Don’t think how are we going to make FTTH happen. Think, what are we going to do after FTTH happens!!!
- 15. What are the enabling technologies? Fiber Capacity IP over WDM Lambda Switching Control Planes IPv6 -> Lambda Addressing
- 16. The key FTTH research question for 1987, today, & tomorrow ... Evolution or Revolution? What is the PON of the Future?