Nate Wood, Research Geographer, USGS (Portland, OR) . Great Marsh Symposium, Nov 17th, 2016

1. Nathan Wood, PhD
Nina Abdollahian
Jamie Jones
Western Geographic Science CenterU.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
Community Exposure to Potential Climate-Driven Changes
to Coastal-Inundation Hazards for
Six Communities in Essex County, Massachusetts
Photograph: Joe Teixeira via National Wildlife Federation

2. Overview
• Hazards Vulnerability Team,
USGS Western Geographic
Science Center
• Exposure analysis request
by the National Wildlife
Federation, in connection
with the U.S. Department of
Interior NE Climate Science
Center
• Report available for free at
https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/
publication/ofr20161187

3. Photograph: Holly Frank

4. Source: IPCC AR5, 2013, Fig. 13.27
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/201
3/11/sea-level-rise-what-the-experts-expect/
http://www.cityofboston.gov/climate/sealevelriseboston.asp
Source: NOAA
Sea level rise – historic and predictions
Global Boston Harbor

6. Salisbury
Newburyport
Newbury
Essex
Ipswich
Rowley

7. • Storm inundation modeling
– Woods Hole Group
• Time horizons
– 2013 (~today)
– 2030
– 2070
• Inundation extent
– Probability
– Range of 0.1% to 100%
– High, medium, low, very low
• Depth
– 0.5 feet increments
– 1% (~100-yr water level)
– 0.2% (~ 500-yr level)
Hazard zones

8. Hazard zones - Salisbury
2013 (current) 2030
2070

9. Hazard zones - Newburyport
2013 (current)
2030
2070

10. Hazard zones - Newbury
2013 (current)
2030
2070

11. Hazard zones - Rowley
2013 (current)
2030
2070

12. Hazard zones - Ipswich
2013 (current)
2030
2070

13. Hazard zones - Essex
2013 (current) 2030 2070

14. Development
2006 National Land Cover Database
Amount of
developed land in
hazard zones

15. Natural Areas
• Conservation lands
• Land with Endangered Species
• Priority habitats
• Areas of critical environmental concern
• Community Preservation Act locations
• Various state data sources (MassGIS)
Parker River NWR, MA

16. Land use

17. Residents
Residents
• 2013 Census block level data
• Address points – parcels and businesses
Number of
residents in
hazard zones

18. Demographics of Residents
High – greater than 10% of in-hazard pop.
• Renter-occupied households (9% Rowley, < 5% Essex)
• Over 65 years in age
• Disabled population (< 5% in Essex)
• Only high school degrees
Moderate - 5-9% of in-hazard pop.
• Poverty status established (15% in Rowley, < 5% in
Salisbury and Essex)
Minor - Less than 5% of
in-hazard population
• Unemployed (6% in Newbury)
• Living in mobile homes
• Living in group quarters (11% in
Rowley)
• No phone household
• English as a second language
• Under 5 years in age
• Residents with no vehicle

19. Businesses in hazard zones
Photograph: Joe Teixeira via National Wildlife Federation

20. Economic assets
Data from 2012 Infogroup Employer Database
Number of
employees in
hazard zones

21. Economic assets Amount of parcel
value ($, millions)
in hazard zones
Photograph: Ipswich River Watershed Association

22. Economic assets Amount of building
replacement value ($,
millions) in hazard zones
Photograph: National Wildlife Federation

23. Critical facilities and infrastructure
in hazard zones
Photograph: Joe Teixeira via National Wildlife Federation

24. Areas of concern - Salisbury
Depth data at 1% probability for by 2070

25. Areas of concern - Newburyport
Depth data at 1% probability by 2070

26. Areas of concern - Newbury
Depth data at 1% probability by 2070

27. Areas of concern - Rowley
Depth data at 1% probability by 2070

28. Areas of concern - Ipswich
Depth data at 1% probability by 2070

29. Areas of concern - Essex
Depth data at 1% probability by 2070

30. For more information
• Report (free for download)
• USGS Open-File Report 2016-1187
• https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20161187
• Contact me - Nathan Wood, nwood@usgs.gov
• USGS vulnerability research - http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/science/vulnerability
Thank You
Photograph: National Wildlife Federation