Glen Hiemstra keynote for the 2010 NW Transportation Conference: Transportation Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow. Delivered Feb. 9, 2010, Corvallis, Oregon.

1. Reflections on Transportation Futures
Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow
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2. ©

3. The Present - How we got here
Society A Society B
 Everyone lives in 4,000-  Everyone lives in 2,000-
square-foot houses and square-foot houses and has
has no free time for 45 minutes available for
exercise each day. exercise each day.
 Everyone lives in 4,000-  Everyone lives in 2,000-
square-foot houses and square-foot houses and has
has time to get together time to get together with
with friends one evening friends four evenings each
each month. month.
 Everyone lives in 4,000-
 Everyone lives in 2,000-
square-foot houses and square-foot houses and has
has one week of vacation four weeks of vacation each
each year. year.
Adapted from Robert H. Frank, Falling Behind
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4. 1950 Average New Home
980 square feet for 3.4 people (6)
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5. NOW: 5,000-8,000 Sq. Ft. Homes
For 2.6
people
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6. 1973 Honda Civic
1,500 pounds
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7. 2010 Honda Civic
2,895 pounds
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8. ©

9. What Is Your Image
Of The Future?
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10. 'The Next American Economy'
Conference, Palo Alto, California,
Feb. 3, 2010
The shape of the next American economy must be
export-oriented, low carbon, and innovation fueled.
This is a vision where we export more and waste less,
innovate in what matters, produce and deploy more of
what we invent. This is the kind of productive and
sustainable economy which must emerge from the rubble
of this recession.
Bruce Katz, Vice President and Director, Metropolitan Policy Program,
Brookings Institute
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11. Toward 2025
 We will transform the transportation system
in next 15 years, and we must, to keep us
competitive and to respond to reality.
 Will require a whole-systems view of
community forms, energy, communications,
transportation.
 Will require Technology + Reconsidered
Personal and Community Values
 Optimism: We’ll succeed if we choose the
right problems and apply the right solutions.
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12. The Future
 Trend 1: Economic volatility
 Trend 2: Environmental
issues stay in foreground
 Trend 3: End of cheaper
and cheaper energy
 Trend 4: Shifting
demographics
 Challenge 1: Energy
Transition
 Challenge 2: Transportation
for living, not living for
transportation
 Challenge 3: Make Philly
legal
 Challenge 4: Breakthrough
Thinking
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13. Not enough people make enough money
to buy what we pretended they could
http://ab.typepad.com/.a/6a00e5523754908833010536c48f53970c-800wi
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14. Arbor Day Planting Map
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15. ©

16. When is Peak Oil?
Image credit SuperAlloys.com
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17. 2009 IEA World Energy Outlook
50 mbd additional output needed by 2030
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18. China’ Tsunami of New Cars:
Increased China consumption won’t stop soon.
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19. 27 Florida’s by 2025
States where at least 20% of
The population will be elderly
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20. Generations 2025
5 -45
2
w
1 -79 … no
6 s
ow n ial
n len
s… il
er M
om
Bo
ls…
o na
diti
Tra 80+
Post
now
Generation X Millennial …
…now 45-60 now 5-25
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21. Challenge 1: Energy Transition
Tesla
100% Electric
0-60 in 4 seconds
135 mpg equivalent
250 miles per charge
1 cent/mile
AltairNano
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22. GAO February 2007
 Most studies estimate that oil production will peak
sometime between now and 2040.
 In the United States, alternative fuels and
transportation technologies face challenges that
could impede their ability to mitigate the
consequences of a peak and decline in oil production,
unless sufficient time and effort are brought to bear.
 However, there is no coordinated federal strategy
for reducing uncertainty about the peak’s timing
or mitigating its consequences.
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23. Is the answer
More of the Same?
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24. Re-invent Energy by 2050
 Increase efficiency of new
appliances and buildings to
achieve Zero-carbon
emissions, resulting in 25%
total reduction by 2050.
 Add 3 million 1-megawatt
windmills globally, 75 times
 Shift 2 billion cars from current capacity.
30 mpg to 60 mpg by
2050.  Add 3000 gigawatts of
peak solar photovoltaic,
 Decrease driving for 2 1000 times current
billion cars in half capacity.
 No net new net coal power
 Develop Zero-emission
vehicles plants
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25. William Calvin, Global Fever ©

26. 17% Increase = All
Electric Fleet
William Calvin, Global Fever ©

27. Konarka Technologies, Technology Review July/August 2004
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NanoSolar.com

28. Challenge 3: Transportation for Living
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29. Mobile Web = Game Changer
Car Sharing + Mobile Web
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30. Critical to Increase Transit
& Inter-City Rail
But 80% in U.S. Live in Thin Cities & Struggle to Access Transit -
A major disconnect to creating a balanced U.S. mobility system
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31. Missing Ingredient: The
Networked Personal Vehicle
Right Sized and Right Priced Personal Mobility to Access Transit
Based on Dan Sturgis, Intrago
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32. Challenge 3: Make Philly Legal
http://www.rosschapin.com/ ©

33. Case Study: Mountlake Terrace
• Suburb of Seattle
• Mostly 50s & 60s
development
• Typical “1st ring”
demographics
Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace
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34. Changing Environment
• Demographics
• Busy lifestyles
• More interest in
walking, bicycling,
transit
• Support for Town
Center
• Awareness of climate
change & sustainability
Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace
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35. Mountlake Terrace
Development Code 4 Years Ago
Single-Household Zone
Code Requirements:
• Min. 7200 or 8400 sf lots *
• Min. 20’ front, rear setbacks *
• Min. 12’ combined side
setbacks *
• Max. 35% lot coverage
• 2 parking spaces per unit
• ADUs strongly restricted
• No design standards
* Except for PUDs
Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace
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36. Mountlake Terrace
Development Code Now
Single-Household Zone
Code Requirements:
• Min. 7200 or 8400 sf lots—with
exceptions
• Min. 15’ front, rear setbacks
• Min. 5’ side setbacks
• Max. 40% lot coverage
• Cottage housing OK
• ADUs OK
• 2 parking spaces per unit (with
exceptions for cottage housing)
• Design standards required
Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace
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37. Mountlake Terrace Development
Code 4 Years Ago
Multi-Household Zone Code
Requirements:
• Max. 8 or 16 du/acre
• 35’ height limit
• Max. 25% lot coverage
• 2 parking spaces per unit
• Mixed use not allowed in
most areas
• No design standards
Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace
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38. Mountlake Terrace
Development Code Now
Multi-family Household
Zone Code
Requirements:
• No max. density
• Max. 50’ height limit in some
areas
• Max. 45-65% lot coverage
• Min. 1 -2 parking spaces per
unit
• Bicycle storage space required
• Mixed uses OK
• Design standards required
Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace
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39. Other Code Changes in
Mountlake Terrace
• Standards for most
commercial districts
overhauled:
– Mixed use (res/commercial)
OK
– Design standards required
– More pedestrian features
required
• More opportunities for
townhomes
• Parking standards revised
• Permit process made more
efficient
Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace
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40. Challenge 4: Breakthrough Thinking
Masdar, Abu Dabai: 50,000, Solar, Desalination,
Elevated light rail, Mollor Sky Cars, Pedestrian
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41. Mental Models for Futuring
 Stop the future
 Adjust and adapt
 Predict and prepare
 Create and lead
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42. The future is
something
we do.
The future is not
something that just
Glen Hiemstra
happens to us. Futurist.com
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