Hydro-Meteorology and Water Resources Management in the Caribbean

Hydro-Meteorology and Sustainable
Development in the Caribbean

David A. Farrell, Ph.D., P.G.

Principal
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology
Husbands, St. James
Barbados
Inputs from
Christopher Cox (Ph.D.)
Caribbean Environmental Health Institute

&

Adrian Trotman (M.Sc.)
CIMH

We plan our lives and activities around weather
and climate. Where we live, how we live and
what we do.

Hence, timely information on weather and climate
is essential for our livelihood and way of life.

Our future is uncertain due uncertainties in future
weather and climate.

Reducing these uncertainties is a major priority if
we are to attain our socio-economic goals.

Characteristics of the Caribbean

Most are Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and countries with
large low-lying coastal areas that are vulnerable to flooding;

Significant coastal socio-economic development with most major
cities, capitals and financial centres located in coastal areas;

Mostly agricultural and service based economies with few exceptions;

National and inter-related regional economies that lack significant
diversity;

Complex inter-related environmental hazards (e.g., flooding, drought,
wind, earthquake) and highly vulnerable populations & ecosystems;

Youthful populations with high expectations;

Acutely susceptible to climate change and climate variability;

All countries trying achieve the UN Millennium Development Goals
and sustain or enhance future development.

Climate Related Risks Challenge
Sustainable Development

Over the last 3 decades, the Caribbean has suffered direct and in-
direct losses estimated at between USD 700 – 3,300 million due to
extreme weather events (Inter-American Development Bank, 2007);

Cumulative annual impact of future climate change on all CARICOM
Member and Associate Member States by ca. 2080 will be about
USD 11.2 billion or 11.3 percent of the projected annual GDP (World
Bank, 2009):
− Most significant contributors to the future annual losses are
expected to be direct losses due to climate related disasters:

USD 2.6 billion due to wind damage;

USD 363.2 million due to flood damage;

USD 3.8 million due to drought;

USD 447 million due to loss of tourism revenues;

Role for hydro-meteorology in sustainable development.

Climate Related Risks Challenge
Sustainable Development

Actions Required to Reduce Climate and Disaster Risks
− Quantification of risks related to climate related hazards;
− Development of human and technical capacity to convert
data to information that can be used to inform adaptation
strategy and prioritization of the implementation process;
− Integrated, proactive and creative approaches:

Science, engineering and social sciences will have to
work in concert to define adaptation parameter space;

Integrated multi-sectoral interventions (water, agriculture,
tourism etc) at the regional, national and local levels to
implement risk reduction and risk transfer strategies that
support and facilitate adaptation;
− Challenges can be overcome if we have a common goal
and work together in good faith!!!

What is Hydro-Meteorology?

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia):
− Branch of meteorology that deals with the hydrological cycle, the
water budget, and the rainfall statistics of storms.
− The boundaries of hydro-meteorology are not clear-cut, and
often overlap with those of the climatologist, the cloud physicist,
and the weather forecaster.
− Considerable emphasis is placed on determining the relationship
between meteorological variables and the maximum
precipitation reaching the ground. These analyses often serve as
the bases for the design of flood-control and water usage
structures including dams and reservoirs.
− Other concerns of hydro-meteorologists include determination of
rainfall probabilities, the space and time distribution of rainfall
and evaporation and recurrence interval of storms.
− Water quality and supply is becoming important in hydro-
meteorology.

Conceptual Framework for
Regional Hydro-
Meteorological Network

National network links
Regional links
National stations
Regional archive &
product development

Example of Hydro-Meteorological
Stations

Network schematic

Sea level monitoring station Stream gauging station
with meteorological measuring with meteorological
instruments in Saint Lucia. measuring in USA.

Hydro-Meteorology & Climate/ Disaster
Risk Reduction Requirements

Timely provision of information on critical climatic parameters:
− Precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and
direction etc (when, where, how much, seasonal trends etc);

Data quality is important if risk reduction is to be achieved
− Measurement networks must exist, be appropriate to the scale of
the problem, and work for long periods of time
− Adequate investment key to network performance & sustainability
− Data quality assurance and quality control are important

Products and information derived data must be transferred to
stakeholders in a form that can be readily used ... needs and
capabilities of downstream users must be understood.

Systemic institutional failures across most of the region in
2009-2010 exacerbated drought impacts.

Hydro-meteorology, Risk Reduction
and Adaptation

Hydro-meteorology data and products are
essential for adaptation in the following sectors:
– Water Resources Management;
– Agriculture & Food Security
– Energy (hydro-electric, solar and wind)
– Health (vector borne diseases, heat stress &
respiratory among others);
– Manufacturing;
– Tourism;

Presentation focuses on first two.

Hydro-meteorology & Water
Resources Management
FAO Country Profiles, 2000: Fernandez and Graham

Country Water Availability Water Supply Desalination
(x106 m3/yr) (x106 m3/yr) Plants

Aquifer Surface Aquifer Surface

Antigua & 4.6 4.6 2
Barbuda

Barbados 76 6.3 > 76 > 6.3 1

Belize N/A N/A 3.1 1(?)

Dominica 26 >16

Grenada 1.7 8-11.6 0.8 8 3

Guyana 2355-11775 65

Haiti 0.13 0.13

FAO Country Profiles, 2000: Fernandez and Graham

Country Water Availability Water Supply Desalination
(x106 m3/yr) (x106 m3/yr) Plants

Aquifer Surface Aquifer Surface
Jamaica 3419 666 850 76

Nevis 3.02 1.82

St. Kitts 6.63 3.32 5

St. Lucia N/A N/A 9

St. Vincent N/A 95 (est. N/A N/A
1971)

Suriname N/A N/A 3153

Trinidad & 107 3736 173
Tobago

Potswork Reservoir, Antigua

Some countries are water
scarce based on the UN
definition:
− Examples include
Barbados & Antigua

Regions within countries
that are not water scarce
may be water scarce:
− Example includes
Kingston, Jamaica

Water scarcity can change
due to changing water Potswork Reservoir has been dry at times
within recent years.
quality


Freshwater Demand

Service
Agriculture Industry Municipal
Sector

Service Sector Tourism and related sectors are heavy user of freshwater. National
Water Commission of Jamaica estimates that the tourism sector
require 10x more water per capita than the domestic sector.

Agriculture Regional water demand in this sector has not been thoroughly
assessed (except Jamaica). Expected that demand will vary
depending on the type of crop and its contribution to GDP.

Industry Use of water by industry is generally not well documented.

Municipal Not well defined on most islands … limited metering of homes.

Management Issues from IICA Meeting in St. Lucia (1999)

Resource Multiple institutions involved in water resources management
in any one country. However, no mechanism exists to facilitate
Management integration of respective priority actions and to assess their
combined impact on water resources development planning.

Data Collection Data are critical for planning, design, and implementation of
water resources projects and achieving management
& Inventory objectives. Many islands lack basic data on available
resources, supply, and demand.

Institutional Institutional capacity with regard to water resources and
management is generally weak. This has adverse impacts on
Capacity, R&D research and development project activities and the successful
implementation of integrated water resources projects.

Market Based Water rights, water markets, and pricing are not an important
component of resource management. This framework is
Frameworks essential to funding development and growth.

Regulatory National policies, frameworks, and laws to protect freshwater
resources are often non-existent, poorly implemented, or out-
Frameworks dated.

Hydro-meteorology, Drought & Water

History of drought in the
Caribbean (meteorological,
agricultural and hydrological);

Likely increase in frequency and
severity of drought episodes in the
Caribbean in the future;

Precipitation likely to decrease by
approximately 15 to 20 percent in
the future;

Number of consecutive dry days
per year likely to increase;

Rainfall intensity likely to is
expected to increase.

Drought, Agriculture & Water
Resources Management (2009-10)


The 2009-2010 experience:
− Meteorological, agricultural and hydrological
drought experienced
− Significant socio-economic impacts
experienced:
− Event formally identified after on-set of severe
conditions

Why???

Path forward

2009-2010 Drought Impacts on
Agriculture & Food Security

Crops and Livestock
− President of Guyana allocated GUY 258 million for farming relief
in Region 2; Some farmers pumped saltwater into fields;
− Banana exports from Dominica were 43 percent lower in the first
11 weeks of 2010
− Agricultural production in St. Vincent and the Grenadines was
significantly reduced;
− Approximately 25 percent of onion crop in Antigua was lost.

Food Prices
− The price of tomatoes in St. Vincent and the Grenadines rose
from EC 2.35 per pound in February, 2010 to EC 6.00 per pound
in March.
− Food pricing represented a significant portion of rising in inflation
in Trinidad & Tobago from January-March, 2010.

2009-2010 Drought Impacts on
Agriculture & Food Security

Bush Fires
− Scarce water resources required to combat significant
increases in bush fires
− Over 1,000 bush fires reported in Barbados during the first
quarter of 2010
− 106 fires in the first quarter of 2010 in Dominica compared to
103 for all of 2009
− In St. Vincent & the Grenadines, seven different farms
reported the destruction of at least 2 acres of crops from fire

Land Degradation
− Flooding & land slides in the post drought period due in part
to loss of vegetative cover and destruction of soils due to
fires

Impacts of 2009-2010 Drought Water
Resources on Antigua


Antigua
− The Antigua Public Utilities Authority (APUA) reports
that the Potworks Reservoir, the major surface water
storage reservoir with a 1,000 million gallon capacity
that provides up to 20% of the total volume on Antigua
will be dry by the start of March. It is projected that
under current conditions the other surface water
reserves will be depleted by the end of March. The
volume of water produced from desalination plants will
be stepped up while a water rationing programme will
need to be put in place.

Impacts of 2009-2010 Drought on
Water Resources on Grenada


Grenada
− In Carriacou the majority of the rainwater cisterns that
supply bulk water to critical institutions and the public are
now dry. Water is now being barged from Grenada to
supply the residents.

Water Resources on Guyana


Guyana
− Water levels in the conservancies including the East Demerara
Water Conservancy (EDWC) that services Georgetown and
coastal communities have dropped to all-time lows, and
surface waters in the hinterlands have significantly diminished.
Guyana Water Incorporated (GWI) is rationing output to
Georgetown during off-peak hours. For a large number of
wells in the hinterlands, hand pumps are no longer operable
and areas that relied solely on rainwater now out of water.
There are now reported increases incidences of diarrhea
attributable to use of unsafe water. The water levels in the
conservancies are now at levels beyond the lowest design safe
level for irrigation. Consequently sugar and rice production as
well as livestock production are being severely impacted.

Water Resources on Jamaica

Jamaica:
− The below average rainfall has led to significant reductions in
streamflow especially for those rivers to the east of the island
including the Kingston and St Andrew areas. This decline,
coupled with the increased demand for water has led to a rapid
depletion of storage in the two largest surface water storage
systems on the island Mona Reservoir (capacity of 3.67MCM
or 808.5 million imperial gallons) and Hermitage Dam (capacity
of 1.80 MCM or 395 million imperial gallons). As of February
22nd the Mona Reservoir was down to 40% of capacity while
the Hermitage Dam was down to 34% of capacity. Water
rationing to service areas has been in effect. Over 70 small
rural systems (springs and run-of-the-river diversions) in the
east or the central area of the island have either gone dry or
the flows have declined by over 80%. Water restrictions have
been imposed since August of 2009 with tightening as the
situation worsens.

Impacts of 2009-10 Drought on Water
Resources on Jamaica

Jamaica (cont'd):
− There have been demonstrations in some rural areas as the
National Water Commission (NWC) and the parish councils try
to truck water to the citizens. Farmers in the agricultural belt
along the south coast have suffered significant losses of crops.
The economic cost to the NWC to truck water, plus the loss of
revenues are estimated to exceed US$1 million. The economic
cost to the country due to reduced production time at factories,
early closure of business and schools is not yet calculated.
There has been an increase in water borne diseases such as
gastroenteritis and others due to the lack of water to maintain a
high level of sanitation.

Adaptation:
Caribbean Drought Early Warning

Drought traditionally confirmed
after the onset of the event and
confirmed by an analysis of
rainfall totals;

Socio-economic sectors are
unable to modify their
operations in advanced and, as
a result, are severely impacted.

The Caribbean Drought and
Precipitation Monitoring
Network (CDPMN) and the
Caribbean Precipitation
Outlook provide the platform
for drought forecasting.

Adaptation:
Proposed National Water Monitor

National Water Monitor concept
recently piloted to look at the
current state of water in the form
of rainfall at the national level;

Requires precipitation data from
distributed rainfall recording
stations to compute drought
indices;
SPI values for March 2010,

Will be expanded to support CIMH, St. James

forecasting the state of water at
3
2
1mth

the national level 3-6 month into
1
3mth
SPI

0
6mth
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

the future using regional climate
-1 12mth
-2
-3

models. Months

Caribbean Flooding

Examples of recent severe flooding in
the Caribbean (clockwise from top
right):
− Jamaica, Barbados and Haiti.

Loss of life and property remains
unacceptable high.

Can this be improved?

Adaptation:
Advance Flood Forecasting: Haiti
Pilot Project 2010

Hourly precipitation output from 48-hour Running cumulative 48-hour precipitation
high resolution (4 km) numerical output from 48-hour high resolution (4 km)
weather prediction model run over Haiti numerical weather prediction model run over
watersheds. Ideal for forecasting the Haiti watersheds. Ideal for assessing the
potential for flash flooding. potential for flooding and landslides due to
multiple precipitation evens over 48 hours.

Adaptation:
Pilot Project 2010

Effort started January 13, 2010 with
production of high resolution rainfall
estimates after the earthquake;

Development work subsequently financed
by the CCRIF with the product being used
by the international community;

Flood forecasting based on explicit
hydrologic model that uses rainfall
predictions over watersheds;

System to be implemented in watersheds
in the Caribbean under a Japan-CARICOM
funded project.

Hydrometric data needed for robust model Initial water depth in the
watershed prior to the start of
calibration. the rainfall event.

Adaptation:
Pilot Project 2010

Modeled water depths across Modeled water depths across
the watershed approximately 5 the watershed approximately 12
hours after the start of the event. hours after the start of the event.


Island scale and focused Groundwater
groundwater and contaminant model being
developed for
migration modeling requires hydro- Barbados.
meteorological inputs:
– Models support current
management and future climate
change adaptation assessments;

Hydro-meteorological data often C m a is n b tw e o s r e a d p e ic d pe ip tio
o p r o e e n b ev d n r d te r c ita n

have gaps due to poor
80
Pe ic d
r d te
Os re
b ev d
70

maintenance of the network or data
r c ita n m )
p e ip tio ( m
60

stored in an unusable format; 5

4
0

0


Missing data can be approximated 3

2
0

0

using statistical algorithms; 10

0

Data rescue programme needed
0 10
0 2 0
0 30
0 40
0 50
0 60
0 70
0 80
0 9 0
0 10
00
dy
as

Estimating missing data using
for most Caribbean islands!!! analytical neural network.

Examples of Ongoing & Planned
Regional Projects

CCRIF Excess Rainfall Parametric Insurance Product
− Based on model outputs due to limted hydro-meteorological data
to support a data-driven model.

Caribbean Water Initiative (CARIWIN)
− 6 year pilot project being implemented in Jamaica, Guyana and
Grenada with McGill University through assistance with CIDA
− Supports water resources management training from the
national to community levels
− Installation of hydro-meteorological equipment

CADM Phase II (CDEMA & Japan International Cooperation Agency)
− Supports flood risk management in 6 CARICOM Member
States)
− Supports upgrading of hydro-meteorological networks in
participating countries

Examples of Ongoing & Planned
Regional Projects

Completion of the Caribbean Meteorological Organization
(CMO) Doppler Radar Project
− Provides information to support rainfall estimation and location
as well as other meteorological variables

UNDP/Italy Enhance Resilience to Reduce Vulnerability
− Will be executed in Barbados and OECS
− Implementation of a decision support system to reduce hydro-
meteorological risk
− Improvement of hydrometric networks and data real-time
capture

Expansion and enhancement of hydrometric networks in the
OECS (USAID?)

Completion of the Caribbean Sea Level Monitoring Network

Ongoing & Planned Regional
Projects

Carib-HYCOS (France & WMO)
− Expansion of hydrometric networks and data capture in
participating countries
− Specialized water resources management training

Capacity Building for Water Programmes in Higher Education in
the Caribbean (CapCar) (EduLink)
− Series of specialized short courses to support capacity building
in water resources

GEF Integrating Coastal Areas and Water Resources
Management (GEF-IWCAM)
− Capacity building in participating countries to implement
an integrated approach to the management of
watersheds and coastal areas.

Conclusions

Sustainable development in the Caribbean is strongly
dependent on weather and climate;

Reducing the impacts that weather and climate have on the
various socio-economic sectors requires significant
interaction between the various disciplines;
− Important lessons were learnt from the 2009-2010 drought;
− Information must be shared in a timely manner;
− A clear understanding of end-user needs is required.
− Clear policies for such interactions is required;

Many new initiatives are being enacted at the regional level
that if sustained should improve disaster risk reduction and
water resources management. Given recent history, are all of
the efforts sustainable? How do we prioritize these efforts?

Conclusions


Comprehensive education and training programmes may
be required to support integration of disciplines

Regional Climate Data Archiving
at CIMH
• Responsible for storing/archiving meteorological and
meteorological data from CMC Member States
• Not all Member States are currently utilizing CIMH’s data archiving capabilities
• Not all data collecting agencies in countries share data with NMHS … as a result,
comprehensive data sets for most countries is not available
• CIMH can handle data in a range of formats including CLIDATA
and CLICOM which are supported by WMO … hydrological
database also present
• Quality Assurance checks performed by CIMH on the data
received and archived
• Monthly Weather Summaries prepared from meteorological data received
(available in electronic format http://www.cimh.edu.bb)
• In the past, few data products produced from data collected (cost
is expensive relative to revenue) … situation is changing
• See Caribbean Agrometeorology Network
(http://63.175.159.26/~monthly/CarAgMet2/products.htm)

Challenges to Data Archiving at
CIMH

• Failure of several countries to archive data at CIMH
• Costs associated with data collection and archiving systems
– Data collection, archiving and quality assurance at CIMH is
approximately USD 250,000.00
– Most of these costs are not recoverable
– As more databases are added costs will increase
– Sustainability of the system is susceptible to budgetary shortfalls at
CIMH
• A more strategic approach to data collection, archiving and
quality assurance at CIMH is required

Meteorological Data Archiving in
the Caribbean

• Why collect and archive? What is the importance of
archived data?
– Better understand the climatology of the region to support sectoral
planning (e.g., agriculture, water resources planning, insurance, etc)
– Support for global climate databases (e.g., GCOS)
– Support engineering designs (e.g., drainage design to support flood
mitigation)
– Environmental change detection
– Supports design of alternative systems and energy mix

Project Cycle for Data Collection
Projects
• Challenges
– Limited sustainability as there is
often little funding beyond the Proposal development,
approval & inception
execution period
– Often no product development
Network design,
from the data collected equipment selection
–
How to address recurring costs
• Enhancing sustainability Equipment acquisition &
deployment
– Include a revenue generating
model in the project design to
Data collection, storage Data dissemination to
address recurring costs & archiving stakeholders

Modified Project Cycle for Data
Collection Projects

• Market analysis and Proposal development,
product identification approval & inception

–
Customers and marketing
strategy should be developed Network design, Market analysis &
equipment selection product identification
early in the project
– Should be included early in the
Equipment acquisition &
project cycle so that it is deployment
reflected in the equipment
acquisition, network design and
data collection and storage & archiving stakeholders
activities
– Needs of the market may result
in network design that may differ Product development Revenue generation
from that developed for the
“traditional scenario”
Network maintenance &
expansion

Modified Project Cycle for Data
Collection Projects (… cont’d)
• Product development
Proposal development,
– Can occur within regional approval & inception
organizations or as joint
collaborations between the
Network design, Market analysis &
organization and the equipment selection product identification
public/private sectors
– Single or multiple products Equipment acquisition &
developed based on market deployment
demand and risk consideration
& archiving stakeholders
• Revenue generation
– Sale of data to commercial Product development Revenue generation
entities
– Sale of products and services
Network maintenance &
developed from data collected expansion
and royalties

Revenue Generation Models

• Sale of data
– Requirements:
• Identification of appropriate pricing schemes
• Development of appropriate agreements controlling the distribution of the
data to third parties
• Establishment of an appropriate system where royalties (or some
equivalent) is paid to the data collector distributor for each unit of product
sold for which the data is an important contribution
–
Pros:
• For donor funded activities the cost and risk exposure is small for the
implementing organization
– Cons:
• No incentive for capacity development leading to innovation is often missing
• Revenue generated may be insufficient to cover recurrent costs associated
with sustain the network … return to the donor community for financing to
revitalize the network … removes money that can be applied to other
important developmental activities

Revenue Generation Models
(… cont’d)

• Development of Products & Services … added value
– Requirements:
• Market research conducted early in the project development stage
• Appropriate staffing and resources may need to be put in place
• Establishment of appropriate pricing schemes for products and services
• Public sector/Private Sector partnerships
– Pros:
• Donor assumes the initial risks by providing the seed financing
• Revenue generated from the sale of products and services used to sustain the
network … no need for further interventions from the donor community
• Research (market and scientific) and product development supports capacity
development, innovation and spin-off activities … organizational growth
• Data dissemination objectives also achieved
• Provides incentives for data collection
– Cons:
• Organization’s risk exposure increased due to its need to invest in product
development

Other Approaches to Achieving
Sustainability of Data Collection
Systems
• Exploitation of synergies between projects
– Currently several projects are being initiated in the Caribbean that
have data collection components. CIMH is working with the
various implementing agencies. Long-term sustainability of these
efforts can be achieved by:
• Exploiting synergies across projects to reduce repetition of efforts
• Using common instrument platforms to reduce the number of systems being
deployed, managed and maintained
• Utilization of common databases to reduce the costs associated with
supporting multiple databases
• Reinvesting cost savings from synergistic activities to support sustainability
activities (equipment procurement, software updates and research and
development activities)

Conclusions

• Saying we need a new network is not enough … demonstrating a
clear long-term management strategy is required
• There needs to be significant shift in the way we see data and
demonstrate the importance of data to national development
• Business models should be built into proposals to support the
sustainability of projects. Models should explore revenue
generation based on resale of data and development of products
from data. Revenue could support
– Sustainability of networks
– Innovation, research and development

Hydro-Meteorology and Water Resources Management in the Caribbean

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