Rania El Masri_Impact of Climate Change on Urban Livelihoods: Water
1. IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON URBAN
LIVELIHOODS: WATER
Rania el Masri, Ph.D.
Environment and Energy Policy Specialist
UNDP, Regional Center in Cairo
Amman, October 3, 2012
http://greenresistance.wordpress.com
Twitter: rania_masri
facebook.com/rania.masri
2. 2
STATE OF OUR WATER
COMMONS:
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
Litani, Lebanon
3. 3
Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007 (m3/capita/yr)
Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait
Lebanon Libya Mauritania Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia
Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia UAE Yemen
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
4. 4
Total renewable water resources per capita
(2008) (m3/capita/yr)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
Water scarcity level (< 1000)
1000
Water Crisis level (< 500)
500
Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)
0
5. 5
Projections: Total renewable water resources per capita
(2008 and 2016) (m3/capita/yr)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500 Water scarcity level (< 1000)
Water Crisis level (< 500)
1,000
Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)
500
0
11. 11
population growth: 1950-2050
Arab region: among the
fastest population growth
rates (> 2%/year)
• GCC population: to
double by 2040
• Maghreb population: to
double by 2060
14. 14
Threats to our water commons
• Decreasing supply
• Aquifers and groundwater heavily mined (Yemen)
• Increasing demand (decreasing supply per
capita)
• Population growth
• Increasing urbanization, Increasing economic and social
demands
20. 20
The political economy of water
The scarcity of water, like any resource scarcity, imposes
the inevitable questions:
• Who gets how much?
• At what cost?
• And at what price, if any?
But there are deeper questions that also need to be
addressed:
• Who decides?
• By what procedures?
• What features of governance will most likely produce
management decisions that are fair, effective, and
environmentally sustainable?
22. Annual Mean Changes in Hydrometeorological Variables for the 22
Period 2080–2099 Relative to 1980–1999 – using a middle-path
emissions scenario (A1B)
23. 23
Impact of climate change on water availabilit y in Middle East and North
Africa in 2050
Source: Milly et al., published in Nature.
25. 25
Urban flooding
* ~ 75 % of built structures are at risk of sea-level rise,
storm surges, and heat impacts.
• Urbanization increases vulnerability to floods
• (i) coastal flooding,
• (ii) major rivers,
• (iii) small streams, and
• (iv) inadequate drainage
37. 37
Impact of water crisis: who gets water?
70
60
Population without
50
access to improved
40
water sources (2010)
30
20
10
0
100
90
Internal differences in 80
70
access to improved 60
water sources (2010) 50
40
30
20
10
0
Djibouti Iraq Morocco Oman Somalia Sudan Yemen
Rural Urban
38. 38
80 Impact of water crisis: whose water is clean?
70
60
Population
50 without access to
40 improved
30 sanitation
20 facilities (2010)
10
0
Libya
Tunisia
Lebanon
UAE
Morocco
Qatar
Iraq
Somalia
Sudan
Comoros
Oman
Kuwait
Djibouti
Mauritania
Algeria
Syria
Yemen
OPT
Egypt
Jordan
100
90
80
Internal differences in 70
60
access to improved 50
sanitation facilities 40
(2010) 30
20
10
0
Rural Urban
39. 39
(Potential) impacts of Decreased Supply
and Increased Demand on Water
• Direct impacts
• … increased cost
• … decreased quality (eg: increased salinization)
• Indirect impacts
• … increased poverty
• … increased health risks
• …risk to livelihoods in agricultural sector
• Decreased ecosystem health … and all the impacts
43. The Sustainable
Livelihood
Framework
Livelihood Outcomes
+ Sustainable use of
Livelihood Capital NR base
Assets + Income
+ Well-being
- Vulnerability
Human + Food security
Policies & Institutions
(Transforming
Natural Structures & Processes)
Social Structures
- Government
- Private Sector
Processes
- Laws Livelihood
- Policies Strategies
Physical Financial - Culture
- Institutions
Vulnerability
Context
Shocks
Trends
Seasons
44. 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley
Focussing on the poor
The
Poor
45. 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley
Livelihood Assets
Personal
Social
Human
The
Poor
Financial Physical
Natural
46. 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley
Unpacking Policies and Institutions
Enabling Service
agencies providers
Personal
Social
Human
The
Poor
Financial
Physical
Natural
47. 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley
Unpacking “Processes”
Enabling Service
agencies providers
Personal
Social
Human
The
Poor
Financial
Physical
Natural
48. 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley
An Envelope of Action
Enabling Service
agencies providers
Personal
Social
Human
The
Poor
Financial
Physical
Natural
49. 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley
Weak Envelope – People More Vulnerable
Enabling Service
agencies providers
Personal
Social
The Human
Poor
Financial
Physical
Natural
50. Strong Envelope – People Less Vunerable
17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley
Enabling Service
agencies providers
Personal
Social
Human
The
Poor
Financial
Physical
Natural
56. 56
Current Responses
• Desalination
• GCC: more than 50% of domestic water use consumption comes from
desalination
• Energy usage: drinking oil?
• Some reports indicate by 2050, GCC would spend 50% of their fuel on desalination
• By 2038, KSA may not be able to export oil…
• Negative Impact on marine life
• Privatization
• UAE, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco: Public-Private Partnership
• Bottled water consumption (UAE and Lebanon: highest growth in bottled water
consumption in the world)
• Reuse of drainage water
• Practiced on a large scale in Egypt
• (only) up to 10% of total water resources are from reused from agricultural drainage
water
• More limited scale in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
57. 57
Additional necessary responses
• Reduce consumption (from repairing infrastructure to family planning)
• Develop a water commons
• Participatory stewardship
• Develop fair pricing – not ‘full cost recovery’ as was in Rio
• Reduce vulnerabilities of poor
• Charge higher volume users more per unit
• Plan for all water resources in a comprehensive package
• Why do we assign water quality to a Health Ministry, drinking water to an urban utility, and
irrigation to an Agricultural Ministry, and no one responsible for watershed health?
• Develop sequential water use
• Implement wise agricultural management (from halting the export of virtual
water to comprehensive support for small-holder farmers)
• Stop export of water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice
• Support farmers to have the financial means to implement water efficient irrigation
Ensure water as a human right and not a human need
And of course: work seriously to significantly reduce greenhouse gas
emissions locally and internationally: make mitigating climate change a
priority
58. 58
FUNDAMENTALLY …
A new economy
A new personal and societal framework
And a vision of something positive
59. 59
Links for additional info
My contact information
• Climate change • rania.z.masri@gmail.com
knowledge portal - • Twitter: rania_masri
http://sdwebx.worldbank.o
rg/climateportal/index.cfm
• Climate connections
• http://climate-
connections.org/