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Introducción a Modelos Predictivos de Fuga de Clientes

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Una introducción básica sobre el desarrollo de modelos predictivos de Fuga de Clientes (Churn) para acciones de retención temprana.

Hugo Cisternas
hcisternas@gmail.com

Publicado en: Empresariales, Tecnología
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Introducción a Modelos Predictivos de Fuga de Clientes

  1. 1. Construcción de Modelos predictivos de Fuga de clientes<br />Hugo Cisternas<br />1<br />
  2. 2. Fundamento básico de la experiencia humana<br />El futuro próximo será parecido al pasado reciente<br />a nivel de experiencia individual<br />a nivel de experiencia social<br />El comportamiento futuro de un individuo será parecido a su comportamiento pasado<br />Los sucesos futuros serán parecidos a los sucesos del pasado reciente<br />2<br />
  3. 3. Ejemplo<br />Si otras condiciones se mantienen, esperamos que:<br />La tasa de ventas será parecida al pasado<br />Excepto que iniciemos una campaña, para la que tenemos alguna predicción respecto a su tasa de respuesta<br />La tasa de incorporaciones será similar al pasado<br />La tasa de abandono no será significativamente diferente al pasado<br />3<br />
  4. 4. Predicción de fuga<br />Herramienta para estimar la probabilidad de<br />Fuga dentro de los próximos 6, 9 o 12 meses<br />Caer en inactividad en los próximos meses <br />Abandono temprano, al momento de solicitud<br />Abandono temprano al solicitar sobregiros, autorizaciones, etc.<br />4<br />
  5. 5. ¿Qué datos son importantes?<br />Todos los datos pueden ser importantes<br />El análisis debe omitir prejuicios respecto a la importancia de un ítem de dato<br />No todos los datos serán igualmente importantes<br />Existen interacciones entre algunos datos<br />Las personas mayores, en general, tendrán mayor antigüedad en el empleo<br />Propietarios de casa, en general, tendrán sueldos mayores que los que arriendan<br />Los solteros, en general, tendrán menos cargas familiares<br />Quienes viven en Las Condes tendrán, en general, sueldos mas altos que quienes viven en Pudahuel<br />Al comienzo, el grado de interacción no se conoce<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Primer paso<br />Armar el set de datos a analizar:<br />Obtener un conjunto de clientes con resultado conocido<br />6<br />“activos”<br />Set de Datos<br />Vigentes<br />Clientes<br />Ex clientes<br />“fugados”<br />
  7. 7. Conjunto de datos para análisis<br />Establecer línea de tiempo base<br />Obtener datos conocidos al comienzo<br />Marcar resultado al final de período de estudio<br />7<br />Activos<br />6 meses<br />9 meses<br />12 meses<br />Final<br />Inicio<br />Fugados<br />
  8. 8. Contar<br />Para cada ítem de datos<br />En cada categoría<br />¿Cuantos “activos” hay?<br />¿Cuantos “fugados” hay?<br />Ejemplo:<br />¿Cuantos hombres resultaron activos?¿fugados?<br />¿Cuantas mujeres resultaron activas?¿fugados?<br />¿Cuantos solteros resultaron activos?¿fugados?<br />¿Cuantos casados resultaron activos?¿fugados?<br />8<br />
  9. 9. Ejemplo<br />Muestra de 1.000 activos y 1.000 fugados<br />Género<br />9<br />
  10. 10. Ejemplo: Género<br />10<br />
  11. 11. Ejemplo: Género<br />Calcular los “momios” o “chances” de fugarse en cada caso<br />Las chances son 2 a 1 que un hombre se fugue<br />Las chances son 1/2 a 1 que una mujer se fugue<br />11<br />
  12. 12. Ejemplo Estado Civil<br />Contar los “activos” y “fugados” para cada característica<br />Ejemplo:<br />12<br />
  13. 13. Análisis de características<br />Calcular porcentaje de Bueno y fugados en cada categoría.<br />Calcular las chances de ser bueno en cada categoría<br />13<br />
  14. 14. Re categorización<br />Algunas categorías no contienen suficientes casos.<br />Agrupar todas en una categoría.<br />El caso de información faltante<br />Dejar aparte (no se pueden sacar conclusiones)<br />Incluir en el análisis (aporta información)<br />14<br />
  15. 15. Ejemplo: Antigüedad<br />15<br />
  16. 16. Ejemplo: Antigüedad<br />16<br />
  17. 17. Ejemplo: Antigüedad<br />17<br />Re-categorización<br />
  18. 18. Desarrollo del Score<br />18<br />
  19. 19. Distribución de Puntajes<br />Porcentaje de activos y fugados según puntaje:<br />19<br />
  20. 20. Distribución de Puntajes<br />Distribución (suavizada) de activos y fugados por puntaje:<br />Promedio fugados: 300 puntos<br />Promedio activos: 500 puntos<br />activos<br />fugados<br />20<br />
  21. 21. Punto de Corte<br />Punto de Corte es el puntaje bajo el cual se considerará un potencial abandono<br />21<br />Ejemplo: <br />punto de corte en 150<br />
  22. 22. Distribución real<br />Distribución de acuerdo a la cantidad total de individuos en categoría fugados y activos:<br />22<br />
  23. 23. Comparación entre dos sistemas de scoring<br />23<br />

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