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The Long-Term Unemployed
and Unemployment Insurance:
Evidence from a Panel Study of Workers
Who Lost a Job During the Great Recession
Carl Van Horn, Ph.D.
Professor and Director
John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development
and Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy
November 4, 2011
Research brief available at:
http://bit.ly/ryoBoA
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
2
Heldrich Center Surveys of Unemployed and
Reemployed Workers, 2009 to 2011
 Four national random sample surveys of unemployed American
workers, conducted by Knowledge Networks of Palo Alto, CA
 Wave 1: August 2009: 1,202 respondents who had been
unemployed at some point in the prior 12 months (between
September 2008 and August 2009)
 Wave 2: March 2010: 908 re-interviewed; 76% of the original sample
 Wave 3: November 2010: 764 re-interviewed; 64% of the original
sample
 Wave 4: August 2011: 675 re-interviewed; 56% of the original sample
 Panel Attrition: The 675 respondents surveyed in August 2011
constitute an almost perfectly representative sub-sample of the
original group of 1,202 interviewed in August 2009
 The full results, reports, interview protocols, and methodology for all
four waves of interviews are available at www.heldrich.rutgers.edu
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
3
Table 1: Panel Employment Status
August
2011
November
2010
March
2010
August
2009
Unemployed and looking 41% 54% 54% 76%
Jobless and looking 33% 43%
Part time, looking for full time 8% 11%
Unemployed, not looking 17% 13% 13% 5%
Don't want a job 4%
Discouraged, out of labor market 6%
In school 4%
Doing volunteer work 3%
Employed 43% 34% 33% 19%
Full time 27% 26%
Self-employed (full time or part time) 6%
Part time 7% 8%
Part time, in school 3%
Total 101% 101% 100% 100%
Numbers of respondents (675) (764) (908) (1,202)
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
4
Figure 1: Have you received unemployment benefits
from the government at any time in the past 12 months?
No
76%
No
30%
Yes
70%
Yes
25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Currently Employed Currently Unemployed
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
5
Figure 2: Areas where respondents reduced spending so
much that it made a difference in family’s day-to-day life:
42%
44%
48%
52%
75%
76%
87%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Housing/home maintenace
Health care
Transportation
Food
Travel/vacations
Clothing
Entertainment
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
6
UNEMPLOYED
Figure 3: How long have you been actively seeking employment?
10% 16%
35%
50%
15%
32%
29%
18%
24%
22%
47%
22% 23% 22%
7%
12%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Wave 1
Aug-09
Wave 2
Mar-10
Wave 3
Nov-10
Wave 4
Aug-11
2 or more years 1-2 years 7-12 months Less than 6 months
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
7
LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED
Table 2: Which of the following have you done
since becoming unemployed?
Long-term
unemployed
(more than 2 years)
Other
Unemployed
Sold some of your possessions to make
ends meet 60% 40%
Moved in with family or friends to save
money 20% 18%
Borrowed money from family or friends,
other than adult children 60% 45%
Missed a mortgage payment 26% 19%
Taken a job you did not like 40% 27%
Taken a job below your education or
experience levels 36% 26%
Missed a credit card payment 28% 20%
Forced to move to a different house or
apartment 20% 10%
Increased credit card debt 31% 28%
Used food stamps or received food from
a nonprofit or religious organization 38% 32%
Cut back on visits to the doctor or
medical treatment 55% 42%
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
8
Table 3: What have you recently done in your job search?
Did Receive
Did NOT
Receive
Sent in an application to a potential employer
Yesterday/Last Friday 32% 17%
Within 7 days 38% 42%
Within last month 22% 18%
Not in the last month 8% 24%
Sent an email to a potential employer to inquire
about a job
Yesterday/Last Friday 13% 16%
Within 7 days 49% 33%
Within last month 17% 15%
Not in the last month 21% 36%
Called a potential employer to inquire about a job
Yesterday/Last Friday 15% 17%
Within 7 days 31% 28%
Within last month 29% 17%
Not in the last month 25% 38%
Unemployed
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
9
Table 4: What have you recently done in your job search?
Did Receive
Did NOT
Receive
Used and online job board (like Monster, Hot Jobs,
Career Builder), (like Craigslist), or online company
job boards to look for a job
Yesterday/Last Friday 34% 29%
Within 7 days 34% 31%
Within last month 22% 11%
Not in the last month 9% 30%
Looked at a newspaper classifieds jobs ads
Yesterday/Last Friday 44% 25%
Within 7 days 22% 40%
Within last month 18% 13%
Not in the last month 16% 23%
Contacted a friend of family member about a job
Yesterday/Last Friday 26% 13%
Within 7 days 23% 37%
Within last month 15% 21%
Not in the last month 36% 30%
Number of respondents (117) (381)
Unemployed
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
10
Figure 4: What have you done in the past 12 months
to help you get a job?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Other
Taken an education class useful for job hunting
Take a class or training for skills to get a new job
Went to a one-stop career center or governmental
agency for help
Attended a job fair
Looked for a job using internet boards or employes web
sites
Unemployed, did NOT receive UI Unemployed, did receive UI
Total Unemployed, Wave 4 Aug-11
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
11
EMPLOYED
Figure 5: How long were you actively seeking employment
before you found a job?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2 months or
less
3 to 4
months
5-6 months 7 months - 1
year
1 year to 2
years
More than 2
years
Not sure
Employed, did receive UI Employed, did NOT receive UI Employed, exhaustees
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
12
Table 5: Forced to take a cut in pay in order to find
new full-time employment
Did Receive Did NOT Receive
Employed
Exhaustees
Yes 59% 32% 64%
No 41% 69% 36%
Total 100% 101% 100%
Number of respondents (190) (86) (82)
Employed
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
13
Table 6: Support for ideas considered by government officials to
bring down high unemployment
Did Receive
Did NOT
Receive Did Receive
Did NOT
Receive Exhaustees
Long-term education and training programs
that help people change careers 86% 66% 92% 80% 87%
Longer and higher benefits from
Unemployment Insurance 64% 44% 90% 63% 75%
Have government create jobs for
unemployed people 73% 49% 82% 72% 79%
Require people to enter training programs in
order to receive Unemploymeny Insurance 59% 65% 58% 58% 53%
Give tax credits to businesses that hire new
workers 76% 64% 77% 65% 74%
Number of respondents (190) (86) (117) (381) (127)
Employed Unemployed
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
14
Figure 6: Possible steps to improve the economy
considered by policymakers in Washington
26% 22% 25% 25%
21%
20% 25% 24% 27%
67%
55% 53% 52% 49%
12%0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Cutting
government
spending to
control the deficit
Creating jobs
through direct
government
spending
Cutting wage
taxes
Providing more
unemployment
insurance for
unemployed
workers
Spending on
construction
projects, such as
roads and
highways
Favor
No Opinion
Oppose
The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance
15
Contact Information
Dr. Carl Van Horn
vanhorn@rutgers.edu
732.932.4100 x6305
www.heldrich.rutgers.edu

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Evidence from a Panel Study of Workers Who Lost a Job During the Great Recession

  • 1. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance: Evidence from a Panel Study of Workers Who Lost a Job During the Great Recession Carl Van Horn, Ph.D. Professor and Director John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development and Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy November 4, 2011 Research brief available at: http://bit.ly/ryoBoA
  • 2. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 2 Heldrich Center Surveys of Unemployed and Reemployed Workers, 2009 to 2011  Four national random sample surveys of unemployed American workers, conducted by Knowledge Networks of Palo Alto, CA  Wave 1: August 2009: 1,202 respondents who had been unemployed at some point in the prior 12 months (between September 2008 and August 2009)  Wave 2: March 2010: 908 re-interviewed; 76% of the original sample  Wave 3: November 2010: 764 re-interviewed; 64% of the original sample  Wave 4: August 2011: 675 re-interviewed; 56% of the original sample  Panel Attrition: The 675 respondents surveyed in August 2011 constitute an almost perfectly representative sub-sample of the original group of 1,202 interviewed in August 2009  The full results, reports, interview protocols, and methodology for all four waves of interviews are available at www.heldrich.rutgers.edu
  • 3. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 3 Table 1: Panel Employment Status August 2011 November 2010 March 2010 August 2009 Unemployed and looking 41% 54% 54% 76% Jobless and looking 33% 43% Part time, looking for full time 8% 11% Unemployed, not looking 17% 13% 13% 5% Don't want a job 4% Discouraged, out of labor market 6% In school 4% Doing volunteer work 3% Employed 43% 34% 33% 19% Full time 27% 26% Self-employed (full time or part time) 6% Part time 7% 8% Part time, in school 3% Total 101% 101% 100% 100% Numbers of respondents (675) (764) (908) (1,202)
  • 4. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 4 Figure 1: Have you received unemployment benefits from the government at any time in the past 12 months? No 76% No 30% Yes 70% Yes 25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Currently Employed Currently Unemployed
  • 5. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 5 Figure 2: Areas where respondents reduced spending so much that it made a difference in family’s day-to-day life: 42% 44% 48% 52% 75% 76% 87% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Housing/home maintenace Health care Transportation Food Travel/vacations Clothing Entertainment
  • 6. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 6 UNEMPLOYED Figure 3: How long have you been actively seeking employment? 10% 16% 35% 50% 15% 32% 29% 18% 24% 22% 47% 22% 23% 22% 7% 12% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Wave 1 Aug-09 Wave 2 Mar-10 Wave 3 Nov-10 Wave 4 Aug-11 2 or more years 1-2 years 7-12 months Less than 6 months
  • 7. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 7 LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED Table 2: Which of the following have you done since becoming unemployed? Long-term unemployed (more than 2 years) Other Unemployed Sold some of your possessions to make ends meet 60% 40% Moved in with family or friends to save money 20% 18% Borrowed money from family or friends, other than adult children 60% 45% Missed a mortgage payment 26% 19% Taken a job you did not like 40% 27% Taken a job below your education or experience levels 36% 26% Missed a credit card payment 28% 20% Forced to move to a different house or apartment 20% 10% Increased credit card debt 31% 28% Used food stamps or received food from a nonprofit or religious organization 38% 32% Cut back on visits to the doctor or medical treatment 55% 42%
  • 8. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 8 Table 3: What have you recently done in your job search? Did Receive Did NOT Receive Sent in an application to a potential employer Yesterday/Last Friday 32% 17% Within 7 days 38% 42% Within last month 22% 18% Not in the last month 8% 24% Sent an email to a potential employer to inquire about a job Yesterday/Last Friday 13% 16% Within 7 days 49% 33% Within last month 17% 15% Not in the last month 21% 36% Called a potential employer to inquire about a job Yesterday/Last Friday 15% 17% Within 7 days 31% 28% Within last month 29% 17% Not in the last month 25% 38% Unemployed
  • 9. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 9 Table 4: What have you recently done in your job search? Did Receive Did NOT Receive Used and online job board (like Monster, Hot Jobs, Career Builder), (like Craigslist), or online company job boards to look for a job Yesterday/Last Friday 34% 29% Within 7 days 34% 31% Within last month 22% 11% Not in the last month 9% 30% Looked at a newspaper classifieds jobs ads Yesterday/Last Friday 44% 25% Within 7 days 22% 40% Within last month 18% 13% Not in the last month 16% 23% Contacted a friend of family member about a job Yesterday/Last Friday 26% 13% Within 7 days 23% 37% Within last month 15% 21% Not in the last month 36% 30% Number of respondents (117) (381) Unemployed
  • 10. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 10 Figure 4: What have you done in the past 12 months to help you get a job? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Other Taken an education class useful for job hunting Take a class or training for skills to get a new job Went to a one-stop career center or governmental agency for help Attended a job fair Looked for a job using internet boards or employes web sites Unemployed, did NOT receive UI Unemployed, did receive UI Total Unemployed, Wave 4 Aug-11
  • 11. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 11 EMPLOYED Figure 5: How long were you actively seeking employment before you found a job? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2 months or less 3 to 4 months 5-6 months 7 months - 1 year 1 year to 2 years More than 2 years Not sure Employed, did receive UI Employed, did NOT receive UI Employed, exhaustees
  • 12. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 12 Table 5: Forced to take a cut in pay in order to find new full-time employment Did Receive Did NOT Receive Employed Exhaustees Yes 59% 32% 64% No 41% 69% 36% Total 100% 101% 100% Number of respondents (190) (86) (82) Employed
  • 13. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 13 Table 6: Support for ideas considered by government officials to bring down high unemployment Did Receive Did NOT Receive Did Receive Did NOT Receive Exhaustees Long-term education and training programs that help people change careers 86% 66% 92% 80% 87% Longer and higher benefits from Unemployment Insurance 64% 44% 90% 63% 75% Have government create jobs for unemployed people 73% 49% 82% 72% 79% Require people to enter training programs in order to receive Unemploymeny Insurance 59% 65% 58% 58% 53% Give tax credits to businesses that hire new workers 76% 64% 77% 65% 74% Number of respondents (190) (86) (117) (381) (127) Employed Unemployed
  • 14. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 14 Figure 6: Possible steps to improve the economy considered by policymakers in Washington 26% 22% 25% 25% 21% 20% 25% 24% 27% 67% 55% 53% 52% 49% 12%0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Cutting government spending to control the deficit Creating jobs through direct government spending Cutting wage taxes Providing more unemployment insurance for unemployed workers Spending on construction projects, such as roads and highways Favor No Opinion Oppose
  • 15. The Long-Term Unemployed and Unemployment Insurance 15 Contact Information Dr. Carl Van Horn vanhorn@rutgers.edu 732.932.4100 x6305 www.heldrich.rutgers.edu